Decision modelling for economic evaluation of liver transplantation

As the gap between a shortage of organs and the im-mense demand for liver grafts persists, every available donor liver needs to be optimized for utility, urgency and equity. To overcome this challenge, decision modelling might allow us to gather evidence from previous studies as well as compare the costs and consequences of alternative options. For public health policy and clinical intervention assessment, it is a potentially powerful tool. The most commonly used types of decision analytical models include decision trees, the Markov model, microsimulation, discrete event simulation and the system dynamic model. Analytic models could support decision makers in the field of liver transplantation when facing specifc problems by synthesizing evidence, comprising all relevant options, generalizing results to other contexts, extending the time horizon and exploring the uncertainty. For modeling studies of economic evaluation for transplantation, understanding the current nature of the disease is crucial, as well as the selection of appropriate modelling techniques. The quality and availability of data is another key element for the selection and development of decision analytical models. In addition, good practice guidelines should be complied, which is important for standardization and comparability between economic outputs.

Small-time scale network traffic prediction based on a local support vector machine regression model

In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.

FAULT DIAGNOSIS APPROACH BASED ON HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE

Aiming at solving the problems of machine-learning in fault diagnosis, a diagnosis approach is proposed based on hidden Markov model （HMM） and support vector machine （SVM）. HMM usually describes intra-class measure well and is good at dealing with continuous dynamic signals. SVM expresses inter-class difference effectively and has perfect classify ability. This approach is built on the merit of HMM and SVM. Then, the experiment is made in the transmission system of a helicopter. With the features extracted from vibration signals in gearbox, this HMM-SVM based diagnostic approach is trained and used to monitor and diagnose the gearbox＇s faults. The result shows that this method is better than HMM-based and SVM-based diagnosing methods in higher diagnostic accuracy with small training samples.

Forecasting Model Based on Information-Granulated GA-SVR and ARIMA for Producer Price Index

The accuracy of predicting the Producer Price Index(PPI)plays an indispensable role in government economic work.However,it is difficult to forecast the PPI.In our research,we first propose an unprecedented hybrid model based on fuzzy information granulation that integrates the GA-SVR and ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model)models.The fuzzy-information-granulation-based GA-SVR-ARIMA hybrid model is intended to deal with the problem of imprecision in PPI estimation.The proposed model adopts the fuzzy information-granulation algorithm to pre-classification-process monthly training samples of the PPI,and produced three different sequences of fuzzy information granules,whose Support Vector Regression(SVR)machine forecast models were separately established for their Genetic Algorithm(GA)optimization parameters.Finally,the residual errors of the GA-SVR model were rectified through ARIMA modeling,and the PPI estimate was reached.Research shows that the PPI value predicted by this hybrid model is more accurate than that predicted by other models,including ARIMA,GRNN,and GA-SVR,following several comparative experiments.Research also indicates the precision and validation of the PPI prediction of the hybrid model and demonstrates that the model has consistent ability to leverage the forecasting advantage of GA-SVR in non-linear space and of ARIMA in linear space.

Clinical Analysis of Primary Tracheobronchial Tumors in Children and Evaluation of the Predicting Models for Mucoepidermoid Carcinoma

Objective:To determine the clinical characteristics and prognosis of primary tracheobronchial tumors(PTTs)in children,and to explore the most common tumor identification methods.Methods:The medical records of children with PTTs who were hospitalized at the Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from January 1995 to January 2020 were reviewed retrospectively.The clinical features,imaging,treatments,and outcomes of these patients were statistically analyzed.Machine learning techniques such as Gaussian na?ve Bayes,support vector machine(SVM)and decision tree models were used to identify mucoepidermoid carcinoma(ME).Results:A total of 16 children were hospitalized with PTTs during the study period.This included 5(31.3%)children with ME,3(18.8%)children with inflammatory myofibroblastic tumors(IMT),2 children(12.5%)with sarcomas,2(12.5%)children with papillomatosis and 1 child(6.3%)each with carcinoid carcinoma,adenoid cystic carcinoma(ACC),hemangioma,and schwannoma,respectively.ME was the most common tumor type and amongst the 3 ME recognition methods,the SVM model showed the best performance.The main clinical symptoms of PPTs were cough(81.3%),breathlessness(50%),wheezing(43.8%),progressive dyspnea(37.5%),hemoptysis(37.5%),and fever(25%).Of the 16 patients,7 were treated with surgery,8 underwent bronchoscopic tumor resection,and 1 child died.Of the 11 other children,3 experienced recurrence,and the last 8 remained disease-free.No deaths were observed during the follow-up period.Conclusion:PTT are very rare in children and the highest percentage of cases is due to ME.The SVM model was highly accurate in identifying ME.Chest CT and bronchoscopy can effectively diagnose PTTs.Surgery and bronchoscopic intervention can both achieve good clinical results and the prognosis of the 11 children that were followed up was good.

Nonlinear model predictive control based on support vector machine and genetic algorithm

This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) approach based on support vector machine(SVM) and genetic algorithm(GA) for multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) nonlinear systems.Individual SVM is used to approximate each output of the controlled plant Then the model is used in MPC control scheme to predict the outputs of the controlled plant.The optimal control sequence is calculated using GA with elite preserve strategy.Simulation results of a typical MIMO nonlinear system show that this method has a good ability of set points tracking and disturbance rejection.

Selective ensemble modeling based on nonlinear frequency spectral feature extraction for predicting load parameter in ball mills

Strong mechanical vibration and acoustical signals of grinding process contain useful information related to load parameters in ball mills. It is a challenge to extract latent features and construct soft sensor model with high dimensional frequency spectra of these signals. This paper aims to develop a selective ensemble modeling approach based on nonlinear latent frequency spectral feature extraction for accurate measurement of material to ball volume ratio. Latent features are first extracted from different vibrations and acoustic spectral segments by kernel partial least squares. Algorithms of bootstrap and least squares support vector machines are employed to produce candidate sub-models using these latent features as inputs. Ensemble sub-models are selected based on genetic algorithm optimization toolbox. Partial least squares regression is used to combine these sub-models to eliminate collinearity among their prediction outputs. Results indicate that the proposed modeling approach has better prediction performance than previous ones.

High-rise building fire pre-warning model based on the support vector regression

Aiming at reducing the deficiency of the traditional fire pre-warning algorithms and the intelligent fire pre-warning algorithms such as artificial neural network,and then to improve the accuracy of fire prewarning for high-rise buildings,a composite fire pre-warning controller is designed according to the characteristic（ nonlinear,less historical data,many influence factors）,also a high-rise building fire pre-warning model is set up based on the support vector regression（ SV R）. Then the wood fire standard history data is applied to make empirical analysis. The research results can provide a reliable decision support framework for high-rise building fire pre-warning.

A Structural Equation Model of Residents' Support for Mega Event

The aim of this article is to develop a structural equation model to assess key factors of residents' support for hosting mega event based on previous literature.The model consisted of five latent constructs and eight path hypotheses.A survey was conducted in Shanghai before 2010 World Expo.It was found that the support for mega events is affected directly and/or indirectly by four determinants factors:perceived benefits,perceived costs,personal benefits and community attachment,and support relies heavily on perceived benefits rather than costs.This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge in an attempt to understand local residents' support for a mega event in different economic and cultural settings.

Development and Application of Decision Support Model for the Performance Optimization of Office Buildings Based on Grasshopper

With the expansion of the office building area,the energy consumption of office buildings is growing.High⁃performance building design contributes to energy saving and the development of green buildings.However,there is a lack of high⁃performance building tools and the workflow is often time⁃consuming.The building performance simulation,multiple objective optimizations,and the decision support model are the new approaches of high⁃performance building design.This paper proposes a newly developed decision support model,a high⁃performance building decision model named HPBuildingDSM,which integrates the building performance simulation,building performance multiple objective optimizations,building performance sampling,and parameter sensitivity analysis to design high⁃performance office buildings.In this research,the HPBuildingDSM was operated to search for the desirable office building design results with low⁃energy and high⁃quality daylighting performances.The simulated results had better daylighting performance and lower energy consumption,whose UDI100-2000 was 37.94%and annual energy consumption performance was 76.28 kWh/(m2·a),indicating a better building performance than the optimized results in the previous case study.

Knowledge representation and rule-based solution system for dynamic programming model

A knowledge representation has been proposed using the state space theory of Artificial Intelligence for Dynamic Programming Model, in which a model can be defined as a six tuple M=(I,G,O,T,D,S). A building block modeling method uses the modules of a six tuple to form a rule based solution model. Moreover, a rule based system has been designed and set up to solve the Dynamic Programming Model. This knowledge based representation can be easily used to express symbolical knowledge and dynamic characteristics for Dynamic Programming Model, and the inference based on the knowledge in the process of solving Dynamic Programming Model can also be conveniently realized in computer.

A Decision Support Model for Predicting Avoidable Re-Hospitalization of Breast Cancer Patients in Kenyatta National Hospital

This study aimed to develop a clinical Decision Support Model (DSM) which is software that provides physicians and other healthcare stakeholders with patient-specific assessments and recommendation in aiding clinical decision-making while discharging Breast cancer patient since the diagnostics and discharge problem is often overwhelming for a clinician to process at the point of care or in urgent situations. The model incorporates Breast cancer patient-specific data that are well-structured having been attained from a prestudy’s administered questionnaires and current evidence-based guidelines. Obtained dataset of the prestudy’s questionnaires is processed via data mining techniques to generate an optimal clinical decision tree classifier model which serves physicians in enhancing their decision-making process while discharging a breast cancer patient on basic cognitive processes involved in medical thinking hence new, better-formed, and superior outcomes. The model also improves the quality of assessments by constructing predictive discharging models from code attributes enabling timely detection of deterioration in the quality of health of a breast cancer patient upon discharge. The outcome of implementing this study is a decision support model that bridges the gap occasioned by less informed clinical Breast cancer discharge that is based merely on experts’ opinions which is insufficiently reinforced for better treatment outcomes. The reinforced discharge decision for better treatment outcomes is through timely deployment of the decision support model to work hand in hand with the expertise in deriving an integrative discharge decision and has been an agreed strategy to eliminate the foreseeable deteriorating quality of health for a discharged breast cancer patients and surging rates of mortality blamed on mistrusted discharge decisions. In this paper, we will discuss breast cancer clinical knowledge, data mining techniques, the classifying model accuracy, and the Python web-based decision support model that predicts avoidable re-hospitalization of a breast cancer patient through an informed clinical discharging support model.

The Manufacturing Equipment Support Model Based on the Manufacturing Equipment Role

This work aims to investigate the manufacturing equipment support model for the purpose of improving the efficiency and quality of manufacturing. First, the concept of manufacturing capacity is defined, and the re- lationship between practical and expected manufacturing capacity is described. Then the concept of role is intro- duced and the manufacturing equipment role is defined in detail. Based on the analysis of manufacturing capacity and manufacturing equipment role, the three-stage manufacturing equipment support model is proposed. With this model, the manufacturing task can be decomposed into several manufacturing equipment roles, and the ex- pended manufacturing capacity involved in the manufacturing equipment role can be matched with the practical manufacturing capacity of the enterprise. The measures are discussed depending on different matching degrees.

Mitigation of floor heave in West Kentucky Coal Mine

A West Kentucky mine operation in No. 11 seam encountered floor heave, due to the localized increase in the thickness of the fireclay mine floor. Floor heave has overridden seals installed in two mined out panels. The third seal's location was planned for isolating that area from the Mains. A plan of support has been developed to prevent repetition of the floor heave and related problems outby the seals. The applied ground control measures were successful. An attempt of a 3D numerical modeling was made; thus, it would match the observed behavior of the mine floor and could be used as a design tool in similar conditions. The paper describes sequence of events, an applied mitigation ground control system, and the first stage of numerical modeling.

Influence of fault slip on mining-induced pressure and optimization ofroadway support design in fault-influenced zone

This paper presents an investigation on the characteristics of overlying strata collapse and mining-induced pressure in fault-influenced zone by employing the physical modeling in consideration of fault structure. The precursory information of fault slip during the underground mining activities is studied as well. Based on the physical modeling, the optimization of roadway support design and the field verification in fault-influenced zone are conducted. Physical modeling results show that, due to the combined effect of mining activities and fault slip, the mining-induced pressure and the extent of damaged rock masses in the fault-influenced zone are greater than those in the uninfluenced zone. The sharp increase and the succeeding stabilization of stress or steady increase in displacement can be identified as the precursory information of fault slip. Considering the larger mining-induced pressure in the fault-influenced zone, the new support design utilizing cables is proposed. The optimization of roadway support design suggests that the cables can be anchored in the stable surrounding rocks and can effectively mobilize the load bearing capacity of the stable surrounding rocks. The field observation indicates that the roadway is in good condition with the optimized roadway support design.

Design and Implementation of Fresh Vegetable Sales Volume Trend Forecasting System Based on Improved SVR

The forecast of sales volume trend of fresh vegetables has significant referential function for government dominant departments,producers and consumers.In order to evaluate the e-commerce sales information of fresh vegetables scientifically and accurately,the sales volume information of such four common vegetables as baby cabbage,potatoes,bok choy and tomatoes,from Anhui Jinghui Vegetable E-commerce Co.,Ltd.was selected as the research object to establish the sales trend prediction system.Taking the improved SVR as an example,we introduced the overall architecture,detailed design and function realization of the system.The system can reflect the short-term sales volume trend of fresh vegetables,and also can provide guidance for the realization of e-commerce order-oriented management and scientific production.

STUDY ON SIMULATION EXPERIMENT OF EQUIVALENT MATERIAL APPLIED IN COAL MINE

Based on simulation experiments of a number of scientific research items, the latest progress of experiment method and test technique about equivalent material simulation are introduced. The bevelopment of experiment technique makes analogy simulation evolve into quantitative research about support-surrounding rock relationship from qualitative experiment.From this, large scale stereoscopic simulation experiment is developed, which has never appeared in underground pressure research in China. The present mold specification is 3 - 6 m×2. 0 m ×1. 5 m.

Combined forecast method of HMM and LS-SVM about electronic equipment state based on MAGA

For the deficiency that the traditional single forecast methods could not forecast electronic equipment states, a combined forecast method based on the hidden Markov model（HMM） and least square support vector machine（LS-SVM） is presented. The multi-agent genetic algorithm（MAGA） is used to estimate parameters of HMM to overcome the problem that the Baum-Welch algorithm is easy to fall into local optimal solution. The state condition probability is introduced into the HMM modeling process to reduce the effect of uncertain factors. MAGA is used to estimate parameters of LS-SVM. Moreover, pruning algorithms are used to estimate parameters to get the sparse approximation of LS-SVM so as to increase the ranging performance. On the basis of these, the combined forecast model of electronic equipment states is established. The example results show the superiority of the combined forecast model in terms of forecast precision,calculation speed and stability.

A novel machine learning-assisted clinical diagnosis support model for early identification of pancreatic injuries in patients with blunt abdominal trauma:a cross-national study

Background:The recognition of pancreatic injury in blunt abdominal trauma is often severely delayed in clinical practice.The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning model to support clinical diagnosis for early detection of abdominal trauma.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed of a large intensive care unit database(Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care[MIMIC]-IV)for model development and internal validation of the model,and performed outer validation based on a cross-national data set.Logistic regres-sion was used to develop three models(PI-12,PI-12-2,and PI-24).Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine variables in each model.The primary outcome was early detection of a pancreatic injury of any grade in patients with blunt abdominal trauma in the first 24 hours after hospitalization.Results:The incidence of pancreatic injuries was 5.56%(n=18)and 6.06%(n=6)in the development(n=324)and internal validation(n=99)cohorts,respectively.Internal validation cohort showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve(AUC)value of 0.84(95%confidence interval[CI]:0.71–0.96)for PI-24.PI-24 had the best AUC,specificity,and positive predictive value(PPV)of all models,and thus it was chosen as the final model to support clinical diagnosis.PI-24 performed well in the outer validation cohort with an AUC value of 0.82(95%CI:0.65–0.98),specificity of 0.97(95%CI:0.91–1.00),and PPV of 0.67(95%CI:0.00–1.00).Conclusion:A novel machine learning-based model was developed to support clinical diagnosis to detect pancreatic injuries in patients with blunt abdominal trauma at an early stage.

Constrained layer damping treatment of a model support sting

In transonic wind tunnel tests,the pulsating airflow is prone to induce the first order resonance of the sting support system.The resonance limits the wind tunnel test envelope,makes the test data inaccurate,and brings potential security risks.In this paper,a model support sting with constrained layer damping(CLD)treatment is proposed to reduce the first order resonance response.The CLD treatment mainly consists of material selection and geometric optimization processes.The damping performance of the optimized CLD sting is compared with an AISI 1045 steel sting with the identical diameter in laboratory.The frequency response curves of the CLD sting support system and the AISI 1045 steel sting support system are obtained by sine sweep tests.The test results show that the first order resonance response of the CLD sting support system is 37.3%of that of the AISI 1045 steel sting support system.The first order damping ratios are calculated from the frequency response curves by half power point method.It is found that the first order damping ratio of the CLD sting support system is approximately 2.6 times that of the AISI 1045 steel sting support system.