Three-dimensional Motion of Multichain-Buoy Mooring System in shallow Water and Survival Conditions

An engineering numerical model for three dimensional motion of multichain-buoy mooring system in shallow water and survival condition is given in this paper. Shooting-aim method is employed for solving the dynamic equations of chain system in order to match the computation of buoy motion. The responses of buoy and chain have been computed for different wind-wave-current directions and different rigidity of chain. The results show that the present numerical model is reasonable.

Conditional survival probability of distant-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based study

BACKGROUND The prognosis of many patients with distant metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)improved after they survived for several months.Compared with tradi-tional survival analysis,conditional survival(CS)which takes into account changes in survival risk could be used to describe dynamic survival probabilities.AIM To evaluate CS of distant metastatic HCC patients.METHODS Patients diagnosed with distant metastatic HCC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results database.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify factors for overall survival(OS),while competing risk model was used to identify risk factors for cancer-specific survival(CSS).Six-month CS was used to calculate the probability of survival for an additional 6 mo at a specific time after initial diagnosis,and standardized difference(d)was used to evaluate the survival differences between subgroups.Nomograms were constructed to predict CS.Positiveα-fetoprotein expression,higher T stage(T3 and T4),N1 stage,non-primary site surgery,non-chemotherapy,non-radiotherapy,and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for actual OS and CSS through univariate and multivariate analysis.Actual survival rates decreased over time,while CS rates gradually increased.As for the 6-month CS,the survival difference caused by chemotherapy and radiotherapy gradually disappeared over time,and the survival difference caused by lung metastasis reversed.Moreover,the influence of age and gender on survival gradually appeared.Nomograms were fitted for patients who have lived for 2,4 and 6 mo to predict 6-month conditional OS and CSS,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)of nomograms for conditional OS decreased as time passed,and the AUC for conditional CSS gradually increased.CONCLUSION CS for distant metastatic HCC patients substantially increased over time.With dynamic risk factors,nomograms constructed at a specific time could predict more accurate survival rates.

An Analysis of Conditional Survival Rates for Ewing Sarcoma Patients

Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program based at the National Cancer Institute in the US, conditional survival rates are reported for 1,988 Ewing Sarcoma patients diagnosed during the period 2000-2015. These patients represent the experience of 26.5% of the US population. Specifically, 5-year conditional relative survival rates are calculated for these patients for the first eight years subsequent to diagnosis of their cancer by Extent of Disease (EOD) (Localized, Regional, and Distant as coded by the SEER Program), gender, and age (<18, 18 - 34, and 35+). Findings include showing how the conditional survival rate patterns improve over time and that there are differences by gender, age, and EOD.

Significance of radiation esophagitis:Conditional survival assessment in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Purpose:This study aimed to examine the effect of radiation esophagitis(RE)and the dynamics of RE on subse-quent survival in non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)patients who underwent radiotherapy.Experimental Design:Patients with NSCLC treated with fractionated thoracic radiotherapy enrolled in prospective trials were eligible.RE was graded prospectively according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events(CTCAE)v3.0 per protocol requirement weekly during-RT and 1 month after RT.This study applied conditional survival assessment which has advantage over traditional survival analysis as it assesses the survival from the event instead of from the baseline.P-value less than 0.05 was considered to be significant.The primary endpoint is overall survival.Results:A total of 177 patients were eligible,with a median follow-up of 5 years.The presence of RE,the maximum RE grade,the evolution of RE and the onset timing of RE events were all correlated with subsequent survival.At all conditional time points,patients first presented with RE grade1(initial RE1)had significant inferior subsequent survival(multivariable HRs median:1.63,all P-values<0.05);meanwhile those with RE progressed had significant inferior subsequent survival than those never develop RE(multivariable HRs median:2.08,all P-values<0.05).Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis showed significantly higher C-indexes for models with inclusion of RE events than those without(all P-values<0.05).Conclusion:This study comprehensively evaluated the impact of RE with conditional survival assessment and demonstrated that RE is associated with inferior survival in NSCLC patients treated with RT.

Development and validation of a web-based calculator to predict individualized conditional risk of site-specific recurrence in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Analysis of 10,058 endemic cases

Background:Conditional survival(CS)provides dynamic prognostic estimates by considering the patients existing survival time.Since CS for endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC)is lacking,we aimed to assess the CS of endemic NPC and establish a web-based calculator to predict individualized,conditional sitespecific recurrence risk.Methods:Using an NPC-specific database with a big-data intelligence platform,10,058 endemic patients with non-metastatic stage I–IVA NPC receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy between April 2009 and December 2015 were investigated.Crude CS estimates of conditional overall survival(COS),conditional disease-free survival(CDFS),conditional locoregional relapse-free survival(CLRRFS),conditional distant metastasis-free survival(CDMFS),and conditional NPC-specific survival(CNPC-SS)were calculated.Covariate-adjusted CS estimates were generated using inverse probability weighting.A prediction model was established using competing risk models and was externally validated with an independent,non-metastatic stage I–IVA NPC cohort undergoing intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy(n=601)at another institution.Results:The median follow-up of the primary cohort was 67.2 months.The 5-year COS,CDFS,CLRRFS,CDMFS,and CNPC-SS increased from 86.2%,78.1%,89.8%,87.3%,and 87.6%at diagnosis to 87.3%,87.7%,94.4%,96.0%,and 90.1%,respectively,for an existing survival time of 3 years since diagnosis.Differences in CS estimates between prognostic factor subgroups of each endpoint were noticeable at diagnosis but diminished with time,whereas an ever-increasing disparity in CS between different age subgroups was observed over time.Notably,the prognoses of patients that were poor at diagnosis improved greatly as patients survived longer.For individualized CS predictions,we developed a web-based model to estimate the conditional risk of local(C-index,0.656),regional(0.667),bone(0.742),lung(0.681),and liver(0.711)recurrence,which significantly outperformed the current staging system(P<0.001).The performance of this webbased model was further validated using an external validation cohort(median follow-up,61.3 months),with C-indices of 0.672,0.736,0.754,0.663,and 0.721,respectively.Conclusions:We characterized the CS of endemic NPC in the largest cohort to date.Moreover,we established a web-based calculator to predict the CS of sitespecific recurrence,which may help to tailor individualized,risk-based,timeadapted follow-up strategies.