Semi Operational Prediction of the Dead Sea Evaporation—A Synoptic Systems Approach

The predictability of pan evaporation and air temperature in the southern part of the Dead-Sea region (Sdom) was investigated according to two approaches, prediction by mesoscale models and with the aid of synoptic classification. First, the predicted temperature, wind speed and relative humidity that directly affect the evaporation are obtained from the WRF mesoscale model predictions. Predictions according to multilinear regression equations and a Penman-Monteith approach were also validated against observations in Sdom. The WRF model predicts the temperature reasonably well. However, the wind speed and relative humidity predictions were found to be very poor. The unique approach in this paper is employing a semi-objective synoptic systems classification according to the global GFS model. Relationships were defined between the 19 Eastern Mediterranean’s (EM) synoptic systems and the Sdom evaporation, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. A monthly evaluation was performed for each of the systems and the semi-objective prediction was verified by the semi-objective classification. Since some synoptic systems affect the evaporation and temperature similarly, the 19 synoptic systems were grouped into seven clusters, each containing systems with similar evaporation and temperature records. This method has yielded a significant improvement in the daily prediction of evaporation and temperature. Semi-objective definitions for the synoptic systems were performed for the ranges of 12 - 132 hours. The synoptic system approach succeeded in the prediction of the evaporation and temperature changes in Sdom for a few days in advance. The predictability skill for the 12 hour forecast achieved about 80% of success, dropping to 70% at 36 hours. For 60 to 132 hours the prediction stabilized at a skill of 60%.The method presented here is a new attempt to predict meteorological parameters by using a synoptic classification approach in the Dead-Sea area where even high-resolution mesoscale modeling forecasts are not very successful.

An Extreme Monsoonal Heavy Rainfall Event over Inland South China in June 2022: A Synoptic Causes Analysis

An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of this extreme monsoonal rainfall event in south China were analyzed and diagnosed. The results are shown as follows. A dominant South Asian high tended to be stable near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing favorable upper-level dispersion conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in south China. A western Pacific subtropical high dominated the eastern part of the South China Sea, favoring stronger and more northward transport of water vapor to the northern part of south China at lower latitudes than normal. The continuous heavy precipitation event can be divided into two stages. The first stage(June 13-15) was the frontal heavy rainfall caused by cold air(brought by an East Asian trough)from the mid-latitudes that converged with a monsoonal airflow. The heavy rains occurred mostly in the area near a shear in front of the center of a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ), and the jet stream and precipitation were strongest in the daytime. The second stage(June 16-21) was the warm-sector heavy rainfall caused by a South China Sea monsoonal low-level jet penetrating inland. The heavy rainfall occurred on the windward slope of the Nanling Mountains and in the northern part of a boundary layer jet(BLJ). The BLJ experienced five nighttime enhancements, corresponding well with the enhancement of the rainfall center, showing significant nighttime heavy rainfall characteristics. Finally, a conceptual diagram of inland-type warm-sector heavy rainfall in south China is summarized.

Classifying moisture sources associated with snowfall in the mountains of Lesotho

An average of eight snowfall events occur each year in the eastern Lesotho Highlands.These snowfall events are typically associated with cut-off low(CoLs)systems and mid-latitude cyclones.However,the moisture sources of the snowfall are unclassified and unclear.The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)model,an air mass back trajectory model,has been used to evaluate moisture source waters locally in southern Africa and internationally in China and Europe.This study uses HYSPLIT to determine the source moisture of snow in Lesotho.A list of all 82 snowfall events in Lesotho spanning 2017 to 2022 was compiled using the Snow Report SA Instagram page,including the date and location of snowfall.A 72-hour back trajectory for each snowfall event was initiated for both Afriski and the whole of Lesotho.This amounts to models of moisture source trajectories for 28 and 82 snowfall days,respectively.These air mass pathways are classified according to their frequency per snowfall event,per month in the snow season,per year and for the full period.From this,associated moisture source regions and dominant air mass trajectories were identified.This study reports that the air mass trajectories associated with Afriski and Lesotho as a whole are very similar.The most common pathway of air mass trajectories transporting snow-bearing moisture to Lesotho was an inland trajectory from the northern regions of southern Africa.This pathway makes up 16.6%of all trajectories reported and is associated with the Angola Low,the Congo Air Boundary and the St.Helena High Pressure.

Low-Level Temperature Inversions and Their Effect on Aerosol Condensation Nuclei Concentrations under Different Large-Scale Synoptic Circulations

Knowledge of the statistical characteristics of inversions and their effects on aerosols under different large-scale synoptic circulations is important for studying and modeling the diffusion of pollutants in the boundary layer. Based on results gen- erated using the self-organizing map （SOM） weather classification method, this study compares the statistical characteristics of surface-based inversions （SBIs） and elevated inversions （EIs）, and quantitatively evaluates the effect of SBIs on aerosol condensation nuclei （CN） concentrations and the relationship between temperature gradients and aerosols for six prevailing synoptic patterns over the the Southern Great Plains （SGP） site during 2001-10. Large-scale synoptic patterns strongly influ- ence the statistical characteristics of inversions and the accumulation of aerosols in the low-level atmosphere. The activity, frequency, intensity, and vertical distribution of inversions are significantly different among these synoptic patterns. The verti- cal distribution of inversions varies diurnally and is significantly different among the different synoptic patterns. Anticyclonic patterns affect the accumulation of aerosols near the ground more strongly than cyclonic patterns. Mean aerosol CN con- centrations increase during SBIs compared to no inversion cases by 16.1%, 22.6%, 24.5%, 58.7%, 29.8% and 23.7% for the six synoptic patterns. This study confirms that there is a positive correlation between temperature gradients and aerosol CN concentrations near the ground at night under similar large-scale synoptic patterns. The relationship is different for different synoptic patterns and can be described by linear functions. These findings suggest that large-scale synoptic patterns change the static stability of the atmosphere and inversions in the lower atmosphere, thereby influencing the diffusion of aerosols near the ground.

Local Meteorological and Synoptic Characteristics of Fogs Formed over Incheon International Airport in the West Coast of Korea

Fogs observed over Incheon international airport （IIA） in the west coast of Korea from January 2002 to August 2006 are classified into categories of coastal fog, cold sea fog, and warm sea fog based on the areal extent of the fogs and the difference between the air temperature （T ） and the SST, i.e., cold sea fog if TSST = T -SST 〉 0~0C and warm sea fog if TSST 〈 0~0C. The numbers of coastal, cold, and warm sea fog cases are 64, 26, and 9. Coastal fogs form most frequently in winter, while cold sea fogs occur mostly in summer and warm sea fogs are observed from January to May but not in November and December. On average the air gets colder by 1.6~0C during the three hours leading up to the coastal fog formation, and an additional cooling of 1.1~0C occurs during the fog. The change in the dew point temperature （T_d） is minimal except during the fog （0.6~0C）. Decreases in T for the cold and warm sea fogs are relatively smaller. The average Td is higher than SST during the cold sea fog periods but this T_d is more than 4~0C higher than that for the corresponding non-fog days, suggesting that cold sea fogs be formed by the cooling of already humid air （i.e., T_d〉SST）. Increases of T_d are significant during the warm sea fog periods （1.4~0C）, implying that effcient moisture supply is essential to warm sea fog formation. Four major synoptic patterns are identified in association with the observed fogs. The most frequent is a north Pacific high that accounts for 38% of cases. Surface or upper inversions are present in 77%, 69%, and 81% of the fog periods for coastal, cold, and warm sea fogs, respectively.

Using Synoptic Classification and Trajectory Analysis to Assess Air Quality during the Winter Heating Period in rümqi, China

Synoptic patterns identified by an automated procedure employing principal- component analysis and a two-stage cluster analysis, and backward trajectory analysis clustered by the HYSPLIT4.9 model were used to examine air quality patterns over¨ Uru¨mqi, China, one of the most heavily polluted cities in the world. Six synoptic patterns representing different atmospheric circulation patterns and air-mass characteristics were classified during the winter heating periods from 2001 to 2008, and seven trajectory clusters representing different paths of air masses arriving at ürümqi were calculated during the winter heating periods from 2005 to 2008. Then air quality was evaluated using these two approaches, and significant variations were found across both synoptic patterns and trajectory clusters. The heaviest air-pollution episodes occurred when ürümqi was either in an extremely cold, strong anticyclone or at the front of a migrating cyclone. Both conditions were characterized by with light winds, cold, wet surface air, and relatively dry upper air. ürümqi was predominately influenced by air masses from the southwest and from local areas. Air pollution index （API） levels were highest for air masses originating from the southwest with a longer path or for the local area, because of transport from semi-desert/desert regions by strong winds and because of local heavy pollution emissions, respectively. The interactions between these two analytical approaches showed that poor diffusion conditions, together with local circulation, enhanced air pollution, besides, regional air-mass transport caused by strong winds contributed to serious air quality under relatively good diffusion conditions.

Subseasonal and Synoptic Variabilities of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin in the Summer of 2020

Summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in 2020 experienced a strong subseasonal and synoptic fluctuation in addition to contributing to an exceptionally large seasonal mean precipitation.The cause of this higher-frequency fluctuation is examined based on observational analyses.Apart from the continuous northward movement of the climatological mei-yu rainband,the mei-yu rainbelt in the summer of 2020 experienced multiple northward and southward swings.The cause of the swings was attributed to the subseasonal variability of southerly winds to the south and northeasterly winds to the north of the YRB.In addition,synoptic-scale variability,characterized by the eastward propagation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and precipitation anomalies,was also commonplace in the summer of 2020.While the strengthening of both the subseasonal and synoptic variabilities in the summer of 2020 was attributed to the increase of the background mean moisture,the synoptic variability was greatly affected by the subseasonal rainfall variability.As a result,both the synoptic-scale and subseasonal variabilities contributed to the north-south swings of the rainbelt.The large-scale modulations by both the seasonal mean and subseasonal anomalies provide insight regarding the optimization of issuing accurate,extended-range forecasts of extreme weather events.

The spring Yellow Sea fog：synoptic and air–sea characteristics associated with different airflow paths

The fog occurs frequently over the Yellow Sea in spring（April–May）, a climatical period of Asian monsoon transition. A comprehensive survey of the characteristic weather pattern and the air-sea condition is provided associated with the fog for the period of 1960–2006. The sea fog is categorized by airflow pathways of backward trajectory cluster analysis with the surface observations derived from international comprehensive oceanatmosphere dataset（I_COADS） I_COADS datasets and contemporaneous wind fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP）/National Center for Atmospheric Research（NCAR） reanalysis. On the basis of the airflow paths, the large-scale lower-tropospheric circulation patterns and the associated surface divergence,the distribution of a vertical humidity, the horizontal water vapor transportation and the air-sea temperature difference are investigated and the major findings are summarized as follows.（1） Four primary clusters of the airflow paths that lead to spring sea fog formation are identified. They are originated from the northwest, east,southeast and southwest of the Yellow Sea, respectively.（2） Springtime Yellow Sea fog occurs under two typical weather patterns： the Yellow Sea high（YSH） and cyclone and anticyclone couplet（CAC）. Each pattern appears by about equal chance in April but the YSH occurrence drops to around one third and the CAC rises to around two third of chance in May.（3） The common feature in the two types of synoptic conditions is that surface divergence center is located over the Yellow Sea.（4） For the YSH type of fog, water vapor comes mainly from local evaporation with a well-defined dry layer present in the lower atmosphere; for the CAC type of fog, however, water vapor comes mainly from areas outside the Yellow Sea with a thick surface layer of high humidity.（5） With the differences in weather patterns and its associated vertical distribution of the humidity and the transportation of water vapor, there are two types of sea fogs. Most fogs of the CAC types are ＂warm＂ fog, while fogs of YSH type have nearly equal chance to be ＂warm＂ and ＂cold＂ fog.

Impacts of Aerosol−Radiation Interactions on the Wintertime Particulate Pollution under Different Synoptic Patterns in the Guanzhong Basin,China

The effects of aerosol-radiation interactions(ARI)are not only important for regional and global climate,but they can also drive particulate matter(PM)pollution.In this study,the ARI contribution to the near-surface fine PM(PM_(2.5))concentrations in the Guanzhong Basin(GZB)is evaluated under four unfavorable synoptic patterns,including“northlow”,“transition”,“southeast-trough”,and“inland-high”,based on WRF-Chem model simulations of a persistent heavy PM pollution episode in January 2019.Simulations show that ARI consistently decreases both solar radiation reaching down to the surface(SWDOWN)and surface temperature(TSFC),which then reduces wind speed,induces sinking motion,and influences cloud formation in the GZB.However,large differences under the four synoptic patterns still exist.The average reductions of SWDOWN and daytime TSFC in the GZB range from 15.2%and 1.04°C in the case of the“transition”pattern to 26.7%and 1.69°C in the case of the“north-low”pattern,respectively.Furthermore,ARI suppresses the development of the planetary boundary layer(PBL),with the decrease of PBL height(PBLH)varying from 18.7%in the case of the“transition”pattern to 32.0%in the case of the“north-low”pattern.The increase of daytime near-surface PM_(2.5)in the GZB due to ARI is 12.0%,8.1%,9.5%,and 9.7%under the four synoptic patterns,respectively.Ensemble analyses also reveal that when near-surface PM_(2.5)concentrations are low,ARI tends to lower PM_(2.5)concentrations with decreased PBLH,which is caused by enhanced divergence or a transition from divergence to convergence in an area.ARI contributes 15%-25%toward the near-surface PM_(2.5)concentrations during the severe PM pollution period under the four synoptic patterns.

Roles of Synoptic to Quasi-Monthly Disturbances in Generating Two Pre-Summer Heavy Rainfall Episodes over South China

In this study,power spectral analysis and bandpass filtering of daily meteorological fields are performed to explore the roles of synoptic to quasi-monthly disturbances in influencing the generation of pre-summer heavy rainfall over South China.Two heavy rainfall episodes are selected during the months of April-June 2008-15,which represent the collaboration between the synoptic and quasi-biweekly disturbances and the synoptic and quasi-monthly disturbances,respectively.Results show that the first heavy rainfall episode takes place in a southwesterly anomalous flow associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea(SCS)at the quasi-biweekly scale with 15.1%variance contributions,and at the synoptic scale in a convergence zone between southwesterly and northeasterly anomalous flows associated with a southeastward-moving anticyclonic anomaly on the leeside of the Yungui Plateau and an eastwardpropagating anticyclonic anomaly from higher latitudes with 35.2%variance contribution.In contrast,the second heavy rainfall episode takes place in southwest-to-westerly anomalies converging with northwest-to-westerly anomalies at the quasi-monthly scale with 23.2%variance contributions to the total rainfall variance,which are associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and an eastward-propagating cyclonic anomaly over North China,respectively.At the synoptic scale,it occurs in south-to-southwesterly anomalies converging with a cyclonic anomaly on the downstream of the Yungui Plateau with 49.3%variance contributions.In both cases,the lower-tropospheric mean south-to-southwesterly flows provide ample moisture supply and potentially unstable conditions;it is the above synoptic,quasi-biweekly or quasimonthly disturbances that determine the general period and distribution of persistent heavy rainfall over South China.

Simulations of the Motion of Tropical Cyclone-like Vortices in the Presence of Synoptic and Mesoscale Circulations

Initial mesoscale vortex effects on the tropical cyclone （TC） motion in a system where three components coexist （i.e., an environmental vortex （EV）, a TC, and mesoscale vortices） were examined using a barotropic vorticity equation model with initial fields where mesoscale vortices were generated stochastically. Results of these simulations indicate that the deflection of the TC track derived from the initial mesoscale vortices was clearly smaller than that from the beta effect in 60% of the cases. However, they may have a more significant impact on the TC track under the following circumstances. First, the interaction between an adjacent mesoscale vortex and the TC causes the emergence of a complicated structure with two centers in the TC inner region. This configuration may last for 8 h, and the two centers undergo a cyclonic rotation to make the change in direction of the TC motion. Second, two mesoscale vortices located in the EV circulation may merge, and the merged vortex shifts into the EV inner region, intensifying both the EV and steering flow for the TC, increasing speed of the TC.

Impact of Interannual Variation of Synoptic Disturbances on the Tracks and Landfalls of Tropical Cyclones over theWestern North Pacific

This study investigates the tropical cyclone(TC)activity associated with the two leading modes of interannual variability in synoptic disturbances.Both leading modes are found to be related to a dipole pattern of TC occurrence between the subtropical western North Pacific and the South China Sea.Therefore,in this study we performed composite analyses on TC tracks and landfalls,based on the cases of combined modes,to highlight the differences.The composite results indicate that these cases are characterized by distinct features of TC tracks and landfalls:more TCs tend to take recurving tracks and attack eastern China,Korea and Japan,or more TCs exhibit straight-moving tracks and hit the Philippines,Vietnam and southern China.Further analyses suggest that these distinctions in the TC prevailing tracks and landfalls can be attributed to the differences in large-scale steering flow and TC genesis location.

EFFECT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION ON ALLEVIATING THE DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGIONS OF CHINA DURING SUMMER AND AUTUMN:USING THE IMPROVED OBJECTIVE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE

To quantitatively study the role of tropical cyclone precipitation(TCP) on alleviating the drought in the southeast coastal region of China(SCR) during summer and autumn,the objective synoptic analysis technique(OSAT),improved for consistency and rationality,was used to separate the TCP data on the summers and autumns of 1963-2005 on the basis of daily precipitation data from stations and tropical cyclone best track data.After defining the season drought index,the actual drought distribution and the assumed drought distribution without TCP were acquired.The results showed that within 1 000 km from the southeast coastline of China,TCP accounted for 11.3%of natural precipitation(NP).Without TCP,the drought index in the SCR during summer would have increased from 0.2 to 0.6 or even above 1.0 in some regions whereas the drought index during autumn would have increased from 0.4 to 0.6 or above 1.2 in some regions.The impact of TCP on drought decreases progressively from the southeast coastline to the inland regions.The TCP proportion(TCPP) showed a significant negative correlation with the drought index in many regions of the southeast,and the significant region is wider in autumn than in summer.TCP relieved the drought most significantly within a range of 0-500 km from the southeast coastline.This drought relief showed different characteristics for the interannual variability in summer and autumn,and the cross wavelet transform indicated that the impact of TCP on drought mainly lies in 2-4-year time scales.In particular,there was a significant effect during the summers of 1977-1985 and in the autumns following that of 1985.Therefore,TCP has indeed largely alleviated drought in the SCR during summer and autumn.

Characteristics of Sea Breeze Front Development with Various Synoptic Conditions and Its Impact on Lower Troposphere Ozone Formation

To examine the correlation between the sizes of sea breeze fronts and pollutants under the influence of synoptic fields, a numerical simulation was conducted in the southeast coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, where relatively high concentrations of pollutants occur because of the presence of various kinds of industrial developments. Sea breeze and sea breeze front days during the period 2005 09 were identified using wind profiler data and, according to the results, the number of days were 72 and 53, respectively. When synoptic forcing was weak, sea breeze fronts moved fast both in horizontal fields and in terms of wind velocity, while in the case of strong synoptic forcing, sea breeze fronts remained at the coast or moved slowly due to strong opposing flows. In this case, the sea breeze front development function and horizontal potential temperature difference were larger than with weak synoptic forcing. The ozone concentration that moves together with sea breeze fronts was also formed along the frontal surfaces. Ozone advection and diffusion in the case of strong synoptic forcing was suppressed at the frontal surface and the concentration gradient was large. The vertical distribution of ozone was very low due to the Thermal Internal Boundary Layer （TIBL） being low.

Interannual Variations in Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

The present study investigates the interannual variation of June-November synoptic disturbance activity over the western North Pacific（WNP） and its relationship with large-scale circulation for the period 1958-2014. Two leading modes of eddy kinetic energy for the disturbance variability over the WNP are obtained by EOF analysis, characterized by anomalous eddy kinetic energy over the subtropical WNP and around the Philippines, respectively. These modes explain a large portion of the interannual variance of synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP. Both are associated with lower-level cyclonic anomalies, but with different locations： over the subtropical WNP for the first mode and over the South China Sea for the second mode. Considering the impact of ENSO on synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP, we repeat the analyses after removing the effect of ENSO, which is simply defined as the components linearly regressed onto the Ni o3.4 index, and find similar results, suggesting that the leading modes and their relationships with large-scale circulation exist without SST effects.Further analyses suggest that the meridional shear of zonal winds caused by cyclonic anomalies is crucial for maintaining the leading modes through barotropic conversion.

Synoptic-Thermodynamic Analysis of Pervasive Hailstorm Case Study: Tehran, March 30, 2015

The objective here is to assess the atmospheric evaluations with respect to the perilous hailstorm phenomenon in Tehran. To accomplish this study, the available data regarding 9 (WW) present weather codes that reveal the hailstorm phenomenon with different intensities in 3 hrs observations for 6 meteorological stations of Tehran and vicinity for the period between 1985-2015 are applied. It is revealed that hail occurrence in Tehran is at its maximum in transition seasons of spring and fall between the hrs. 6 - 18 (UTC). It is found that the instability indexes intensify in the afternoon with a higher atmospheric flotation indicative of the possibility in occurrence of thunder hailstorm. Synoptic assessments point to the fact that the synoptic pattern created this thunder storm due to expansion of two: low-pressure cores over Arabia and North-Europe and the cold high-pressure over South Russia with a NS orientation have developed an intense pressure gradient over Tehran province. The study area being located at the left exit of sub-tropical jet stream has made a Baroclinic atmosphere condition on Tehran province. Access to great humidity resources of Mediterranean and Black seas and a drastic decrease of temperature at the upper level of the cloud verifies the hail occurrence on March 30th of 2015 in Tehran.

Electronic Synoptic Reporting of Thyroid Nodules: Potential for Reduction in Number of Patients Undergoing Thyroid Nodule Biopsies

Purpose: The objective of the study was to design and implement an electronic synoptic report for thyroid sonography that incorporates the thyroid imaging reporting and data system (TIRADS) and assess potential for reducing unnecessary fine needle aspiration biopsies (FNAB) of thyroid nodules. Methods: The electronic synoptic report was developed using a relational database based on elements from TIRADS and a multidisciplinary consensus statement for thyroid reporting. A retrospective analysis of 138 patients with previously reported thyroid sonographic exams was evaluated for the presence of these elements. The electronic synoptic report calculates the TIRADS score and generates a formal report. Using the TIRADS score the potential decrease in unnecessary FNAB was estimated. Results: Key TIRADS elements were variously reported ranging from 43% for the thyroid nodule’s architecture as solid or cystic. Thyroid nodule echogenicity and calcification was commented in 27% and 23%, respectively. Other features of the TIRADS score were commented in 0% to 8% of the official reports. Estimated reduction for potentially reduced need for FNAB was 34.5%. Conclusions: This study is the first implementation of synoptic reporting using a relational database for sonography of thyroid nodules. Implementation of an electronic standardized synoptic reporting system may facilitate more accurate, and more comprehensive reporting for thyroid ultrasound scanning of thyroid nodules. The use of TIRADS was estimated to be able to potentially reduce the need for FNAB which was significant.

An Air Mass Based Approach to the Establishment of Spring Season Synoptic Characteristics in the Northeast United States

The Northeast United States spring is indicative of major meteorological and biological change though the seasonal boundaries are difficult to define and may even be changing with global climate warming. This research aims to obtain a synoptic meteorological definition of the spring season through an assessment of air mass frequency over the past 60 years. The validity of recent speculations that the onset and termination of spring have changed in recent decades with global change is also examined. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is utilized to define daily air masses over the region. Annual and seasonal baseline frequencies are identified and their differences are acquired to characterize the season. Seasonal frequency departures of the early and late segments of the period of record are calculated and examined for practical and statistical significance. The daily boundaries of early and late spring are also isolated and assessed across the period of record to identify important changes in the season’s initiation and termination through time. Results indicate that the Northeast spring season is dominated by dry air masses, mainly the Dry Moderate and Dry Polar types. Prior to 1975, more polar air masses are detected while after 1975 more moderate and tropical types are identified. Late spring is characterized by increased variability in all moist air mass frequencies. These findings indicate that, from a synoptic perspective, the season is dry through time but modern springs are also warmer than those of past decades and the initiation of the season is likely arriving earlier. The end of the season represents more variable day-to-day air mass conditions in modern times than detected in past decades.

Case Study of Fog Predictability for an Event with Cold-Front Synoptic Pattern

Fog has recently become a frequent high-impact weather phenomenon along the coastal regions of North China. Accurate fog forecasting remains challenging due to limited understanding of the predictability and mechanism of fog formation associated with synoptic-scale circulation. One frequent synoptic pattern of fog formation in this area is associated with cold front passage(cold-front synoptic pattern, CFSP). This paper explored the predictability of a typical CFSP fog event from the perspective of analyzing key characteristics of synoptic-scale circulation determining fog forecasting performance and the possible mechanism. The event was ensemble forecasted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two groups of ensemble members with good and bad forecasting performance were selected and composited. Results showed that the predictability of this case was largely determined by the simulated strengths of the cold-front circulation(i.e., trough and ridge and the associated surface high). The bad-performing members tended to have a weaker ridge behind a stronger trough, and associated higher pressure over land and a weaker surface high over the sea, leading to an adverse impact on strength and direction of steering flows that inhibit warm moist advection and enhance cold dry advection transported to the focus region. Associated with this cold dry advection, adverse synoptic conditions of stratification and moisture for fog formation were produced, consequently causing failure of fog forecasting in the focus region. This study highlights the importance of accurate synoptic-scale information for improved CFSP fog forecasting, and enhances understanding of fog predictability from perspective of synoptic-scale circulation.

Dynamical Feedback between Synoptic Eddy and Low-Frequency Flow as Simulated by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

Since the interaction between atmospheric synoptic eddy （SE） （2-8 days） activity and low-frequency （LF） （monthly） flow （referred to as SELF） plays an essential role in generating and maintaining dominant climate modes, an evaluation of the performance of BCC_CSMI.I（m） in simulating the SE feedback onto the LF flow is given in this paper. The model captures well the major spatial features of climatological eddy vorticity forcing, eddy-induced growth rate, and patterns of SELF feedback for the climate modes with large magnitudes in cold seasons and small magnitudes in warm seasons for both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. As in observations, the eddy-induced growth rate and SELF feedback patterns in the model also show positive SE feedback. Overall, the relationships between SE and LF flow show that BCC_CSM1. l（m） satisfactorily captures the basic features of positive SE feedback, which demonstrates the simulation skill of the model for LF variability. Specifically, such an evaluation can help to find model biases of BCC_CSM1.1 （m） in simulating SE feedback, which will provide a reference for the model＇s application.