System Dynamic Modelling of Patient Flow and Transferral Problem in a Mixed Public-Private Healthcare System:A Case Study of Hong Kong SAR

The current healthcare system in Hong Kong is experiencing pressure due to constrained resources,with dramatic increases in inpatient services queue lengths,dissatisfaction with the working environment,unacceptable workforce arrangements and high turnover rate of hospital staff.To maintain the robustness of the healthcare system and a sustainable inpatients flow,the Food and Health Bureau launched a public-private partnership programme to utilise the resources of the public and private hospitals.This research investigates the potential for extension of the programme and further enhancing the sustainability of the long-term inpatient services under a mixed public-private healthcare policy via system dynamic modelling.The findings show that an increase of human resources in public hospitals does not substantially improve inpatient flow rate performance.Further,the results from the system dynamic approach provide insights into the expansion of the service areas of the programme and suggest increasing the number of referrals to private hospitals.

Mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in arid inland river basins of Northwest China

Water is a key restricting factor of the economic development and eco-environmental protection in arid inland river basins of Northwest China. Although water supplies are short, the water utilization structure and the corresponding industrial structure are unbalanced. We constructed a System Dynamic Model for mutual optimization based on the mechanism of their interaction. This model is applied to the Heihe River Basin where the share of limited water resources among ecosystem, production and human living is optimized. Results show that, by mutual optimization, the water utilization structure and the industrial structures fit in with each other. And the relationships between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin can be harmonized. Mutual benefits of ecology, society and economy can be reached, and a sustainable ecology-production-living system can be obtained. This study gives a new insight and method for the sustainable utilization of water resources in arid inland river basins.

A Dual-driven Intelligent Combination Control of Heat Pipe Space Cooling System

Effective thermal control systems are essential for reliable operation of spacecraft.A dual-driven intelligent combination control strategy is proposed to improve the temperate control and heat flux tracking effects.Both temperature regulation and heat flux tracking errors are employed to generate the final control action;their contributions are adaptively adjusted by a fuzzy fusing policy of control actions.To evaluate the control effects,describe a four-nodal mathematical model for analyzing the dynamic characteristics of the controlled heat pipe space cooling system（HP-SCS） consisting of an aluminum-ammonia heat pipe and a variable-emittance micro-electromechanical-system（MEMS） radiator.This dynamical model calculates the mass flow-rate and condensing pressure of the heat pipe working fluid directly from the systemic nodal temperatures,therefore,it is more suitable for control engineering applications.The closed-loop transient performances of four different control schemes have been numerically investigated.The results conclude that the proposed intelligent combination control scheme not only improves the thermal control effects but also benefits the safe operation of HP-SCS.

Chinese urbanization 2050： SD modeling and process simulation

Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic(SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China.