Study on the Reliability Evaluation of Qualitative Indices in Multi-Objective Decision

Qualitative indices in multi-objective decision can usually be evaluated and measured by mathematical methods or models, but the obtained results are sometimes inaccurate because of fuzziness of indices. To improve the accuracy and reliability of the evaluation results, set-value statistic principle is applied, and accordingly four evaluation methods are obtained. Meanwhile, these methods are compared briefly.

The Comprehensive Evaluation Algorithm with Fault Location in HVDC Transmission Line

China has a vast territory with a great demand for electricity. However, the resources are in reverse distribution in the country. Therefore, high voltage direct current transmission has great practical significance and been widely used. However, traditional fault location methods have a lot of problems in engineering application for the length of transmission line and the complexity of the terrain. This paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation algorithm based on the travelling wave method and time domain method. It also proposes a concept of fault point reliability. This algorithm analyzes the fault point reliability in the whole transmission line to determine the specific location of the fault point. This paper proves that the algorithm has high reliability by PSCAD simulation software.

FUZZY RELIABILITY-BASED OPTIMUM DESIGN OF LAMINATED COMPOSITES

In conventional reliability-based optimum design of structures, the reliability is computed based on the probability assumption, and the design objective and constraint are considered as deterministic ones. In many cases, however, there exist some fuzzy factors in the design objective and constraint functions. In this paper, the fuzzy reliability and fuzzy constraint are introduced to establish the fuzzy reliability-based optimum model for laminated composites. The examples show that the method developed in this paper can give consideration to both the reliability demand and the economic aspect of a structure. Since the fuzzy reliability-based optimum design is a ＇soft＇ design, the present results provide a new methodology for the effective evaluation of structural reliability and bring us an alternative optimum design idea.

Development of a Fuzzy Fire Risk Evaluation Model for Building Construction Sites in Hong Kong

Earlier research works on fire risk evaluation indicated that an objective,reliable,comprehensive,and practical fire risk evaluation model is essential for mitigating fire occurrence in building construction sites.Nevertheless,real empirical studies in this research area are quite limited.This journal paper gives an account of the second stage of a research study aiming at developing a fuzzy fire risk evaluation model for building construction sites in Hong Kong.The empirical research findings showed that the overall fire risk level of building construction sites is 3.6427,which can be interpreted as“moderate risk”.Also,the survey respondents perceived that“Restrictions for On-Site Personnel”is the most vital fire risk factor;with“Storage of Flammable Liquids or Dangerous Goods”being the second;and“Attitude of Main Contractor”the third.The proposed fuzzy fire risk evaluation model for building construction sites can be used to assess the overall fire risk level for a building construction site,and to identify improvement areas needed.Although the fuzzy fire risk evaluation model was developed domestically in Hong Kong,the research could be reproduced in other nations to develop similar models for international comparisons.Such an extension would provide a deeper understanding of the fire risk management on building construction sites.

System Reliability Analysis of Offshore Strctures and Component Safety Rank Assessment

Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load, so it is important to study the structural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank. In this paper, the bracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path, and the Ditlevsen bound method is used to calculate the system failure probability. The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, which evaluates the structural component safety rank. The ultimate equation of the tubular cross- section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis. The influence of effect coefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated, and basic results are obtained. A general program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed, and verified by the numerical examples.

Reliability Evaluation of Two-Phase Degradation Process with a Fuzzy Change-Point

For some products,degradation mechanisms change during testing,and therefore,their degradation patterns vary at different points in time;these points are called change-points.Owing to the limitation of measurement costs,time intervals for degradation measurements are usually very long,and thus,the value of change-points cannot be determined.Conventionally,a certain degradation measurement is selected as the change-point in a two-phase degradation process.According to the tendency of the two-phase degradation process,the change-point is probably located in the interval between two neighboring degradation measurements,and it is a fuzzy variable.The imprecision of the change-point may lead to the incorrect product’s reliability evaluation results.In this paper,based on the fuzzy theory,a two-phase degradation model with a fuzzy change-point and a statistical analysis method are proposed.First,a two-phase Wiener degradation model is developed according to the membership function of the change-point.Second,the reliability evaluation is carried out using maximum likelihood estimation and a fuzzy simulation approach.Finally,the proposed methodology is verified via a case study.The results of the study show that the proposed methodology can achieve more believable reliability evaluation results compared with those of the conventional approach.

基于三角直觉模糊数的多阶段任务系统可靠性评估

针对多阶段任务系统(Phased Mission System,PMS)可靠性评估中对系统或部件退化规律认识不清、主观知识不完备、环境变化等原因造成部件的信息不足或不精确问题,基于三角直觉模糊数(Triangular Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number,TIFN)和二元决策图(Binary Decision Diagram,BDD)模型,提出了一种PMS可靠性评估方法。首先,定义了TIFN的指数运算法则,证明了其满足的性质;其次,通过多位专家对部件平均故障时间(Mean Time to Failure,MTTF)进行评估,利用TIFN量化专家意见,建立了直觉模糊失效率评估模型,构建了一种计算TIFN的隶属度和非隶属度的方法,根据TIFN的运算法则和指数分布函数定义了部件的模糊失效函数;最后,运用示例说明了该方法的有效性,并与传统PMS-BDD方法、模糊故障树方法和直觉模糊故障树方法进行了对比分析。

基于AHP-Fuzzy综合评价法的工业厂房可靠度分析

文章采用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价法,对影响工业厂房可靠度的因素进行量化,建立可靠度分析的递阶层次结构模型,并运用特征向量法合理地确定影响因素的权重,最后根据最大隶属度原则确定工业厂房的总体可靠度评价等级。实例应用表明采用AHP-Fuzzy综合评价法能够有效地对工业厂房的结构可靠度进行评估,且评估结果接近实际。

非平稳水流激励下水轮发电机组可靠性综合评估

针对在非平稳水流激励作用下水轮发电机组同时发生振动失效和疲劳失效的情形,提出了一种非平稳水流激励下水轮发电机组可靠性综合评估方法。首先,通过分析非平稳水流激励下水轮发电机组的振动失效和疲劳失效,建立了水轮发电机组系统贝叶斯网络模型;然后,在分析机组动力学特性的基础上,基于迁移学习和Kriging模型分别对水轮发电机组的振动可靠性和振动疲劳可靠性进行分析;最后,引入共因失效因子,提出了非平稳水流激励下水轮发电机组可靠性综合评估方法,并通过实例验证所提出方法的有效性。实例分析表明,在240 MW下考虑共因失效和不考虑共因失效的可靠度误差为0.051 3,机组受到的非平稳水流激励越大,共因失效对机组的可靠度影响越大。

基于模糊综合-集值统计法的露天煤矿爆破安全风险评价

为减少露天煤矿爆破开采过程带来的生产安全事故,根据某露天煤矿的人员配备、地理位置、地质概况、生产能力与工作制度、安全生产管理情况以及总结以往爆破事故案例,结合相关专家意见,建立了4个一级指标、18个二级指标的某露天煤矿爆破安全风险评价指标体系;利用集值统计法确定一级、二级风险评价指标权重值,选取区间方差法对权重值进行可靠性分析;利用专家评分建立评判矩阵,最终建立了基于模糊综合-集值统计法的露天煤矿爆破安全风险评价模型,并在某露天煤矿爆破安全评价中成功应用,确定评价总得分为78.4240分,评价等级为二级(很好);利用最大隶属度原则结合模糊评判矩阵,对各一级、二级评价指标进行安全评价分析,并对重要程度高、专家评分低的指标给出相关建议。

基于模糊综合评价的水下采油树结构可靠性分析

针对水下采油树结构可靠性分析,提出一种基于模糊综合评价理论的水下采油树结构可靠性分析方法。首先,通过分析不同厂家水下采油树构型,确定水下采油树的典型结构构型及组成,分析水下采油树在运行过程中所受的外载荷;其次,采用专家打分以及模糊综合评价法求得故障树底事件失效率,通过定量分析求解顶事件失效率、可靠度及可靠寿命曲线等可靠性指标;最后,对故障树进行重要度分析及失效率变化对系统结构可靠性的影响,结果表明:“树本体内磨损”的关键重要度最高,对系统结构可靠性的影响最大,是结构中的薄弱环节,应予以关注。研究成果可为水下采油树结构的风险评估提供技术参考,对水下采油树的设计制造提供一定的指导意义。

输气管网设备维修策略优化方法研究

针对输气管网设备维修方式存在维修不足或维修过剩的问题,提出以可靠性为中心的维修的预防性维修优化模型,以输气管网球阀为例,对球阀进行FMECA分析,分析出其主要故障模式为内漏以及引起内漏故障的主要部件是阀座和密封面,在此基础上运用K-S检验以及相关系数分别对两部件进行分布拟合检验,确定了两部件的无故障运行时间均服从威布尔分布。然后在给定可靠度为0.9的前提下,综合考虑阀座和密封面寿命信息,结合模糊综合评价方法,得到球阀内漏预防性维修周期可由原定的365天延长到456天。结果表明该方法能够有效的减少设备的维修次数,延长检修周期,降低总维修费用。

基于AHP-Fuzzy的矿井供水管网可靠性评价

矿井供水管网的可靠运行是矿井防尘设施有效运行的保障。为了提高矿井供水管网的运行可靠性,通过全面分析影响矿井供水管网可靠性的因素,建立了可靠性评价指标体系。结合层次分析法(AHP)确定各级评价指标的权重,再采用模糊综合评价法对矿井供水管网可靠性进行评价。以开滦集团林南矿供水管网为工程实例进行应用评价,结果显示为中等危害,符合目前供水管网的实际情况。

智能制造系统可靠性与风险评估模型

针对智能制造系统的可靠性与风险评估问题,提出一种基于改进失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)的智能制造系统可靠性与风险评估模型。从创新运用组合权重、逼近理想解排序法思想和模糊多准则妥协解排序法的角度对传统FMEA模型进行改进;基于逼近理想解排序法思想得到专家权重,减少了专家团队对失效模式风险因子分析过程中的个体差异;使用模糊层次分析法和熵权法分别计算风险因子的主观和客观权重,减少了风险因子确定的主观性。最后,运用围绕中心点划分(PAM)聚类算法对改进模型得到的结果进行分析,并应用于智能制造系统风险评估中,确定了智能制造系统中各失效模式的重要程度,通过比较分析验证了改进模型的有效性。

汽车EPS系统可靠性Fuzzy评价研究

在对汽车EPS系统故障进行分析的基础上,建立以Fuzzy理论为基础评价EPS系统可靠性的模糊综合评价模型,提出一种评价EPS系统可靠性的方法,为汽车EPS系统故障诊断提供依据。

基于综合因子模糊层次分析法的机械系统可靠性分配研究

可靠性分配是一种将可靠性指标合理分配到各子系统,确保机械系统稳定性的重要方法。为提高可靠性分配精度,提出一种基于综合因子模糊层次分析的机械系统可靠性分配方法。首先,建立系统层次结构,并采用层次分析法对不同影响因素进行权重分配。然后,运用综合因子模糊评价法对子系统进行模糊评价和不确定性信息处理,从而建立模糊关系矩阵确定因素组合权重,获得系统可靠性分配方案。最终,结合工业机器人系统进行分析,满足了工业机器人系统中降低减速器可靠性分配指标,提高机械臂和控制器可靠性分配指标的要求。

运动员体能训练极限负荷强度模糊估计方法

体能训练极限负荷的特征随机性很强,相关指标强度非线性、模糊性变化较大,难以准确估计极限负荷强度,为此,文中提出一种运动员体能训练极限负荷强度模糊估计方法。通过采集运动员体能训练数据进行聚类处理,并确定极限负荷强度模糊估计指标。采用模糊AHP法确定指标权重,通过一致性分析方法验证指标权重赋值结果的可信度;利用模糊综合评价法搭建负荷强度模糊估计模型,得到极限负荷强度模糊估计结果。实验结果表明,所提方法具有较高的估计准确性,指标计算误差率较低且耗时短,所得评价结果与真实评价结果拟合度较高。

基于实艇装载与加速试验的鱼雷装载可靠度综合评估

针对潜载鱼雷装载可靠度试验时间长、样雷数量小、验前信息少等问题,通过分析装载可靠性评估方法优缺点、装载可靠度试验鉴定主要问题,提出了实艇装载与实验室加速相结合的装载可靠度综合评估方法;结合加速试验等效原理,分析了影响鱼雷装载环境应力的主要因素,设计了装载可靠度试验总体方案和加速试验剖面,确定了恒温、温变循环、振动疲劳加速模型的试验工程化参数;算例表明,该方法解决了在较短时间内潜载鱼雷装载可靠度试验试验考核问题,在保证试验评估结论可信的同时可大幅提高试验实效,不仅可推广应用于其他类型鱼雷可靠性试验鉴定,还可指导鱼雷可靠性的研制与设计。

基于改进FCEM的工业机器人可靠性分配与预测

针对工业机器人在缺乏故障信息的研发初期开展可靠性分配和预测时存在的不确定性问题,基于模糊数学理论,采用考虑多影响因素的模糊综合评价法(FCEM)对工业机器人进行可靠性分配与预测。为提高FCEM的评估效率,建立了基于最优最劣法(BWM)的FCEM,以增加判断结果的一致性和减小主观错误发生的可能性。根据工业机器人的工作原理和结构组成,确定工业机器人的单元集以及影响工业机器人可靠性分配和预测的因素集。将BWM运用到FCEM的比较过程中,以确定影响工业机器人可靠性分配和预测的因素权重。通过模糊综合运算求得工业机器人各子系统可靠性分配权重和可靠性预测修正因子,以此对工业机器人进行可靠性分配和预测。

NRS下多证据融合的混凝土桥梁耐久性评估模型

为准确评估混凝土桥梁的耐久性,提出基于邻域粗糙集(NRS)与D-S证据理论的评估模型。首先,根据混凝土桥梁的结构特征,构建耐久性评估指标体系,并建立起耐久性评估数据库;其次,结合数据库,采用NRS的上下近似定义,确定不同评估指标的基本信度分配,并基于各指标的综合权重构造证据折扣因子,实现对初始基本信度分配的修正;然后,通过D-S证据理论合成规则进行融合,得出耐久性状态等级命题的置信度,进而根据最大隶属原则确定耐久性状态等级;最后,以多座在役混凝土桥梁的实测数据进行算例验证。结果表明:利用该模型获得的耐久性评估结果与现场实测结果一致,相较于传统的评估模型,该模型不仅能更准确地评估混凝土桥梁的耐久性,而且,能通过置信度反映耐久性的劣化趋势,这可为混凝土桥梁的维修加固、养护提供参考依据。