New risk factors and new tendency for central nervous system relapse in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma:a retrospective study

Background: In patients with difuse large B?cell lymphoma(DLBCL), central nervous system(CNS) relapse is uncom?mon but is nearly always fatal. This study aimed to determine the risk factors for CNS relapse in DLBCL patients and to evaluate the eicacy of rituximab and intrathecal chemotherapy prophylaxis for CNS relapse reduction.Methods: A total of 511 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated at the Sun Yat?sen University Cancer Center between January 2003 and December 2012 were included in the study. Among these patients, 376 received R?CHOP regimen(rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone) as primary treatment, and 135 received CHOP regimen(cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone) as primary treatment. Intrathe?cal chemotherapy prophylaxis(methotrexate plus cytarabine) was administered to those who were deemed at high risk for CNS relapse. In the entire cohort and in the R?CHOP set in particular, the Kaplan–Meier method coupled with the log?rank test was used for univariate analysis, and the Cox proportional hazards model was used for multivariate analysis. Diferences were evaluated using a two?tailed test, and P < 0.05 was considered signiicant.Results: At a median follow?up of 46 months, 25(4.9%) patients experienced CNS relapse. There was a trend of reduced occurrence of CNS relapse in patients treated with rituximab; the 3?year cumulative CNS relapse rates were 7.1% in CHOP group and 2.7% in R?CHOP group(P = 0.045). Intrathecal chemotherapy prophylaxis did not confer much beneit in terms of preventing CNS relapse. Bone involvement [hazard ratio(HR) = 4.21, 95% conidence interval(CI) 1.38–12.77], renal involvement(HR = 3.85, 95% CI 1.05–14.19), alkaline phosphatase(ALP) >110 U/L(HR = 3.59, 95% CI 1.25–10.34), serum albumin(ALB) <35 g/L(HR = 3.63, 95% CI 1.25–10.51), treatment with rituxi?mab(HR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.12–0.96), and a time to complete remission ≤ 108 days(HR = 0.22, 95% CI 0.06–0.78) were independent predictive factors for CNS relapse in the entire cohort. Bone involvement(HR = 4.44, 95% CI 1.08–18.35), bone marrow involvement(HR = 11.70, 95% CI 2.24–60.99), and renal involvement(HR = 10.83, 95% CI 2.27–51.65) were independent risk factors for CNS relapse in the R?CHOP set.Conclusions: In the present study, rituximab decreased the CNS relapse rate of DLBCL, whereas intrathecal chemo?therapy prophylaxis alone was not suicient for preventing CNS relapse. Serum levels of ALB and ALP, and the time to complete remission were new independent predictive factors for CNS relapse in the patients with DLBCL. In the patients received R?CHOP regimen, a trend of increased CNS relapse was found to be associated with extranodal lesions.

Risk identification and regulatory system design for the carbon market

Currently,the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions,resulting in a series of new problems,such as how to link dispersed trading systems,how to compare the emission reduction of various markets and other issues.Since the development of the international carbon market is relatively immature with uncertain life expectancy and volatility during its short history,and there is a lack of quantitative data on the long-term record,the market could provide few risk management tools.Meanwhile,with the launches of China's regional carbon trading pilots in seven provinces since 2013 and combined with the national voluntary emission trading system,carbon trading will become an important mechanism for China in achieving its emission reduction target.In the first stage,the carbon finance market is at least faced with mechanism design risks,market supply risks and compliance risks.Therefore,to secure the development of the carbon market and for public interest,relevant government departments of China should identify the risks facing the market and should make the basic principles and goals,such as ensuring effective trading and pricing mechanisms to avoid fraud and price manipulation,and balancing transparency and confidentiality of information.Consequently,the governments should develop a comprehensive carbon finance regulatory system covering regulatory legislation,regulatory institutions and their authorities,regulatory scope as well as regulatory objects.

Engineering complex systems applied to risk management in the mining industry

Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.

A Fuzzy Set-Based Approach for Model-Based Internet-Banking System Security Risk Assessment

A fuzzy set-based evaluation approach is demonstrated to assess the security risks for internet-banking System. The Internet-banking system is semi-formally described using Unified Modeling Language （UML） to specify the behavior and state of the system on the base of analyzing the existing qualitative risk assessment methods. And a quantitative method based on fuzzy set is used to measure security risks of the system, A case study was performed on the WEB server of the Internet-banking System using fuzzy-set based assessment algorithm to quantitatively compute the security risk severity. The numeric result also provides a method to decide the most critical component which should amuse the system administrator enough attention to take the appropriate security measure or controls to alleviate the risk severity. The experiments show this method can be used to quantify the security properties for the Internet-banking System in practice.

Risk Assessment Index System of Natural Gas Industrial Chain in China

This paper establishes a risk assessment index system for the natural gas industrial chain. China＇s natural gas industrial chain is entering a stage of rapid growth. In order to guarantee healthy development of the natural gas industrial chain, it is urgent to establish a risk alert system, which is based on a risk assessment index system. First of all, the risks of the natural gas industrial chain are defined in the paper; then the risk factors are analyzed according to the present status of the natural gas industrial chain, and five categories of risk factors are summarized： resource risk, transport risk, marketing risk, risk of unbalanced chain links, and environment risk. The paper presents the principles of the risk assessment index system. The natural gas industrial chain risk assessment index system is established with four levels and forty-six risk indices.

Development of Jacket Platform Tsunami Risk Rating System in Waters Offshore North Borneo

This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63 m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3Mw seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US$ 25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

Frequency of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Case-Control Study in a Department of Internal Medicine in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: The morbidity and mortality of systemic lupus erythematosus are largely due to accelerated atherosclerosis. This is partly related to the high prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of our study was to determine the frequency of these factors in lupus patients compared to a control population in a department of internal medicine. Methods: We realized a case-control study in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus according to ACR criteria in 1997. Patients were matched by age and gender with controls subjects without autoimmune disease. We studied the frequency of traditional cardiovascular risk factors in both populations. The study was done in the department of internal medicine of Aristide Le Dantec teaching Hospital, in Senegal, during the period from August 2017 to December 2018. The statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 23.0 software and the level of significance was retained for a p-value Results: We recruited 100 subjects including 50 patients and 50 controls. The mean age was 33.5 ± 11.3 years in cases and 33.3 ± 11.3 years in controls. Dyslipidemia was significantly associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (p = 0.009). Levels of triglycerides (p Conclusion: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors including dyslipidemia and hyperuricemia were more common in patients. Similarly, renal failure was associated with lupus.

An Information System for Risk-Vulnerability Assessment to Flood

An exhaustive knowledge of flood risk in different spatial locations is essential for developing an effective flood mitigation strategy for a watershed. In the present study, a riskvulnerability analysis to flood is performed. Four components of vulnerability to flood: 1) physical, 2) economic, 3) infrastructure and 4) social;are evaluated individually using a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The proposed methodology estimates the impact on infrastructure vulnerability due to inundation of critical facilities, emer gency service stations and bridges. The components of vulnerability are combined to determine an overall vulnerability to flood. The exposures of land use/land cover and soil type (permeability) to flood are also considered to include their effects on severity of flood. The values of probability of occurrence of flood, vulnerability to flood, and exposures of land use and soil type to flood are used to finally compute flood risk at different locations in a watershed. The proposed methodology is implemented for six major damage centers in the Upper Thames River watershed, located in the SouthWestern Ontario, Canada to assess the flood risk. An information system is developed for systematic presentation of the flood risk, probability of occurrence of flood, vulnerability to flood, and exposures of land use and soil type to flood by postal code regions or Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs). The flood information system is designed to provide support for different users, i.e., general public, decisionmakers and water management professionals. An interactive analysis tool is developed within the information system to assist in evaluation of the flood risk in response to a change in land use pattern.

Systemic Risk of Conventional and Islamic Banks: Comparison with Graphical Network Models

The main aim of this paper is to compare the stability, in terms of systemic risk, of conventional and Islamic banking systems. To this aim, we propose correlation network models for stock market returns based on graphical Gaussian distributions, which allows us to capture the contagion effects that move along countries. We also consider Bayesian graphical models, to account for model uncertainty in the measurement of financial systems interconnectedness. Our proposed model is applied to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region banking sector, characterized by the presence of both conventional and Islamic banks, for the period from 2007 to the beginning of 2014. Our empirical findings show that there are differences in the systemic risk and stability of the two banking systems during crisis times. In addition, the differences are subject to country specific effects that are amplified during crisis period.

Risk Assessment of Distributed Energy System Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Risk assessment of distributed energy system often has uncertainty and subjective problems. The problems will have some impact on the results. To solve the problems, a method of improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is proposed. By using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, a hierarchical analysis model is established. And then according to the given judgment matrix of each index layer, we calculate whether it meets the consistency condition. And then if the judgment matrix does not meet the consistency condition, the problem will be solved by the improving of particle swarm optimization (PSO) with Kalman filter. The practice in the distributed energy system shows that the method can not only fully reflect the fuzziness of assessment elements and process, but also reduce the influence of individual subjective factors and better evaluation results can be achieved.

An Evaluation of Different Risk Ranking Systems

A number of risk ranking systems for contaminated sites have been developed by different jurisdictions. While the intent of each of these systems is similar, it is not clear whether they provide results that are comparable. In this paper, 20 contaminated sites are used to assess the United States’ Preliminary Assessment (PA) system, Sweden’s Methods for Inventories of Contaminated Sites (MICS) and New Zealand’s Risk Screening System (RSS) methods. The results were compared with each other and with Canada’s National Classification System for Contaminated Sites (NCSCS) as well as preliminary quantitative risk assessment (PQRA) results. The objectives were to determine if the systems yield similar recommendations regarding further actions, and to assess if there are acceptable correlations between different methods. The study concludes that PA, MICS and NCSCS methods can achieve similar conclusions, although there is a certain degree of inconsistency that is present, RSS can distinguish the very high and very low risk sites and, acceptable correlations exists among the methods except for PA and PQRA.

Healthcare intelligence risk detection systems

Background: Today, in healthcare field that is changing rapidly, decision-makers encounter with ever-increasing inquiries on clinical and administrative information to realize customers’ legal and clinical requirements. Therefore, making decisions on healthcare has changed into a vital, complex and unstructured issue. The present paper mainly focuses on describing decision-making advantages, possible risk to improve efficiency of decision-making on healthcare, and especially medical procedures. Methods: The present research is a review study, which has been carried out by searching through the authentic scientific sources, including Pubmed, Google scholar, Iranmedex, and other information sources. While defining care intelligence, here, we introduce Knowledge Discovery Database, the Clinical Support Systems, and Intelligence Risk Detection Model and provide the conceptual model. Other issues studied in this paper include the Risk Possibility Assessment Technique, Risk Possibility Detection using knowledge management techniques, and expert systems. Results & Conclusion: Modeling the Intelligence Support System is necessary for designing Real-Time Risk Detection Information Systems in clinical measures. As taking medical procedures involves complex decision-makings and possibility of high risk, operational application of the techniques derived from knowledge and data mining models under study will play a crucial role in increasing possibility of success of the measure and promoting safety of patients.

Study on Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment System of Northern Henan:A Case Study of Huixian City

Based on the meteorological data and geological disaster information of Huixian in northern Henan during 1961-2009, four disaster-inducing factors like rainstorm, hail, gale and geological disasters were analyzed, and then a meteorological disaster risk evaluation index system was established to zone meteorological disaster risk, finally the meteorological disaster risk zoning map was obtained. The results show that rainstorm, hail and geographical disasters appeared more frequently in mountains than plains; on the contrary, gale occurred more frequently in plains. These conclusions could provide scientific and technological support and theoretical foundation for preventing meteorological disasters in Huixian.

Novel risk scoring system for prediction of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND The available prediction models for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) do not incorporate both preoperative and intraoperative variables. AIM To construct a new risk scoring system for CR-POPF that includes both preoperative and intraoperative factors. METHODS This was a retrospective study of patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) or pylorus-preserving PD (PPPD) between January 2011 and December 2016 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. Patients were divided into a study (01/2011 to 12/2014) or validation (01/2015 to 12/2016) group according to the time of admission. POPF severity was classified into three grades: Biochemical leak (grade A) and CR-POPF (grades B and C). Logistic regression was used to create a predictive scoring system. RESULTS Preoperative serum albumin ≥ 35 g/L [P = 0.032, odds ratio (OR)= 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85-0.99], hard pancreatic texture (P = 0.004, OR = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.10-0.64), pancreatic duct diameter ≥ 3 mm (P = 0.029, OR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.27-0.93), and intraoperative blood loss ≥ 500 mL (P = 0.006, OR = 1.002, 95%CI:1.001-1.003) were independently associated with CR-POPF. We established a 10-point risk scoring system to predict CR-POPF. The area under the curve was 0.821 (95%CI: 0.736-0.905) and the cut-off value was 3.5. Including drain amylase levels improved the predictive power of the model. CONCLUSION This study established a 10-point scoring system to predict CR-POPF after PD/PPPD using preoperative and intraoperative parameters. Ultimately, this system could be used to distinguish between high- and low-risk populations in order to facilitate timely interventions after PD.

GIS Application in Urban Flood Risk Analysis: Midar as a Case Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the advanced applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing urban flood risks, with a specific focus on Midar, Morocco. This research is pivotal as it showcases that GIS technology is not just a tool for mapping, but a critical component in urban planning and emergency management strategies. By meticulously identifying and mapping flood-prone areas in Midar, the study provides invaluable insights into the potential vulnerabilities of urban landscapes to flooding. Moreover, this research demonstrates the practical utility of GIS in mitigating material losses, a significant concern in flood-prone urban areas. The proactive approach proposed in this study, centered around the use of GIS, aims to safeguard Midar’s population and infrastructure from the devastating impacts of floods. This approach serves as a model for other urban areas facing similar challenges, highlighting the indispensable role of GIS in disaster preparedness and response. Overall, the study underscores the transformative potential of GIS in enhancing urban resilience, making it a crucial tool in the fight against natural disasters like floods.

Security Risk Assessment of Cyber Physical Power System Based on Rough Set and Gene Expression Programming

Risk assessment is essential for the safe and reliable operation of cyber physical power system. Traditional security risk assessment methods do not take integration of cyber system and physical system of power grid into account. In order to solve this problem, security risk assessment algorithm of cyber physical power system based on rough set and gene expression programming is proposed. Firstly, fast attribution reduction based on binary search algorithm is presented. Secondly, security risk assessment function for cyber physical power system is mined based on gene expression programming. Lastly, security risk levels of cyber physical power system are predicted and analyzed by the above function model. Experimental results show that security risk assessment function model based on the proposed algorithm has high efficiency of function mining, accuracy of security risk level prediction and strong practicality. © 2014 Chinese Association of Automation.

Study on risk measurement about ammunition-rocket system

Modern ammunition-rocket system is a complicated multidisciplinary system. During its development, undetermined factors will bring many risks. This paper elaborates the importance of risk analysis approach to ammunition-rocket system development and analyses various methods of risk analysis and estimation. Combined with practical situation of weapon system development, the risk measurement function with characteristics of risk preference is given provided that the risk preference characteristic of behavior maker is risk neutral of fixed constant. The development risk analysis based on risk measurement function enables effective risk decision to be made on the basis of quantified risk. Taking anti-helicopter intelligent mine warhead as an example, the paper verifies the efficiency of the method and shows that it has a scientific and practical value.

A Review of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE): Symptoms, Risk Factors, Treatment, and Health Related Quality of Life Issues

In this paper, we present a thorough review of one of the most life-threatening autoimmune diseases, Systemic lupus erythematosus (lupus). Symptoms, risk factors, including genetic and epidemiological factors are discussed. Treatment, life expectancies, and Health Related Quality of Life of patients with SLE will be discussed as well. Special attention will be given to Lupus Nephritis.

Construction on Establishment of Security Risk Assessment Index System for Chinese Peacekeeping Operations

In recent years,with the gradual deepening of Chinese participation in peacekeeping operations,the risks associated with peacekeeping operations have also gradually increased.Chinese peacekeeping operation safety risk assessment indicator system is the basis for evaluating the participation efficiency of Chinese participation in international peacekeeping operations and ensuring the safety of personnel and equipment.This paper discusses the establishment of a risk assessment index system based on the principles of safety system engineering and risk management.It begins with a number of aspects including staffing,equipment and tactics levels.The essay establishes Security Risk Assessment Index System for Chinese Peacekeeping,which provides technical support for the application of the evaluation system in the future.