MODULATION OF TC GENESIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC BY ATMOSPHERIC INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION

The influence of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on TC genesis over the northwestern Pacific is studied through comparing analyses of the more and less TC years from 1979 to 2006. It is indicated that the ISO strongly affects the TC genesis. In the years for more TC genesis, the ISO is weak and propagates insignificantly in the area to the west of the Philippines, but the ISO is strong in the area to the east of the Philippines and propagates significantly northwestward. In this situation, the Walker cell shifts gradually westward from the tropical western Pacific to the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Convergent winds appear in the lower atmosphere while divergent winds in the upper atmosphere, suggesting the presence of enhanced ascending flow over the 140-160°E region and a favorable condition for TC genesis. Moreover, in the years for less TC genesis, the ISO gradually becomes stronger in the area to the west of the Philippines and significant eastward propagation prevails from the eastern Indian Ocean to the area around 120°E; the ISO is weak in the area to the east of the Philippines. During these years, the Walker circulation gradually moved eastward, with convergent winds in the upper troposphere and divergent winds in the lower troposphere. Sinking motion was significant, unfavorable for the TC genesis over the Northwestern Pacific.

An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization

Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks,with aid from coherent coupled initialization.This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs)covering the Asia−Pacific(AP)region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific.The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS):27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS,and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS.In this study,a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis.Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved,the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis,which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics,thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions.

The Initial Mesoscale Vortexes Leading to the Formation of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

A statistical analysis of the initial vortexes leading to tropical cyclone(TC)formation in the western North Pacific(WNP)is conducted with the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1999 to 2018.It is found that TCs in the WNP basically originate from three kinds of vortexes,i.e.,a mid-level vortex(MV),a low-level vortex(LV),and a relatively deep vortex with notable vorticity in both the lower and middle troposphere(DV).Among them,LV and DV account for 47.9%and 24.2%of tropical cyclogenesis events,respectively,while only 27.9%of TCs develop from the MV,which is much lower than that which occurs in the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific.Such a difference might be ascribed to the active monsoon systems in the WNP all year round.Due to the nearly upright structure of mid-level convergence in the early pre-genesis stage,TC genesis efficiency is the highest in DV.Compared with MV,LV generally takes a shorter time to intensify to a TC because of the higher humidity and the stronger low-level cyclonic circulation,which is related to air-sea interaction and boundary-layer convergence.Further examination of the relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and large-scale flow patterns indicate that the TC genesis events associated with LV are primarily related to the monsoon shear line,monsoon confluence region,and monsoon gyre,while those associated with MV are frequently connected with easterly waves and wave energy dispersion of preexisting TC.Compared with other flow patterns,tropical cyclones usually form and intensify faster in the monsoon confluence region.