EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.

Potential enstrophical diagnostic analyses on the mechanism of change of tropical cyclone intensity

It is indicated that the change of mean potential enstrophy within tropical cyclone (TC) corresponds tothe change of TC intensity. A series of factors influencing the intensity change have been discussed by calculating budget of potential enstrophy in tangential wave-number domain in cylindric coordinates. The results indicate thatthe vertical distribution of mean diabatic heating is an important factor that influences the change of TC intensitythrough transformation mechanism of the Coriolis effect and cyclonic vorticity, especially in the sudden intensifyingstage of TC. It is favourable to the intensification when the diabatic heating is largest in upper-middle troposphere,while TC weakens when this kind of role of heating become small or the heating is largest in lower troposphere. Therole of the axisymmetric fields of TC is different from that of the non-axisymmetric fields. In addition,we have analysed some other factors that influence TC intensity.

Simulation of Typhoon Muifa using a mesoscale coupled atmosphere–ocean model

A mesoscale coupled atmosphere–ocean model has been developed based on the GRAPES（Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） regional typhoon model（GRAPES_TYM） and ECOM-si（estuary, coast and ocean model（semi-implicit））. Coupling between the typhoon and ocean models was conducted by exchanging wind stress, heat, moisture fluxes, and sea surface temperatures（SSTs） using the coupler OASIS3.0. Numerical prediction experiments were run with and without coupling for the case of Typhoon Muifa in the western North Pacific. To investigate the impact of using more accurate SST information on the simulation of the track and the intensity of Typhoon Muifa, experiments were also conducted using increased SST resolution in the initial condition field of the control test. The results indicate that increasing SST resolution in the initial condition field somewhat improved the intensity forecast, and use of the coupled model improved the intensity forecast significantly, with mean absolute errors in maximum wind speed within 48 and 72 h reduced by 32% and 20%, respectively. Use of the coupled model also resulted in less pronounced over-prediction of the intensity of Typhoon Muifa by the GRAPES_TYM. Moreover, the effects of using the coupled model on the intensity varied throughout the different stages of the development of Muifa owing to changes in the oceanic mixed layer depth. The coupled model had pronounced effects during the later stage of Muifa but had no obvious effects during the earlier stage. The SSTs predicted by the coupled model decreased by about 5–6℃ at most after the typhoon passed, in agreement with satellite data. Furthermore, based on analysis on the sea surface heat flux, wet static energy of the boundary layer, atmospheric temperature, and precipitation forecasted by the coupled model and the control test, the simulation results of this coupled atmosphere–ocean model can be considered to reasonably reflect the primary mechanisms underlying the interactions between tropical cyclones and oceans.

Assimilation of All-sky Geostationary Satellite Infrared Radiances for Convection-Permitting Initialization and Prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015)

Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin(2015)'s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin's prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13's water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin's intensity,including its rapid intensification(RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane's RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.

What Controls Early or Late Onset of Tropical North Atlantic Hurricane Season？

The occurrence of first hurricane in early summer signifies the onset of an active Atlantic hurricane season.The interannual variation of this hurricane onset date is examined for the period 1979-2013.It is found that the onset date has a marked interannual variation.The standard deviation of the interannual variation of the onset day is 17.5 days,with the climatological mean onset happening on July 23.A diagnosis of tropical cyclone（TC） genesis potential index（GPI） indicates that the major difference between an early and a late onset group lies in the maximum potential intensity（MPI）.A further diagnosis of the MPI shows that it is primarily controlled by the local SST anomaly（SSTA）.Besides the SSTA,vertical shear and mid-tropospheric relative humidity anomalies also contribute significantly to the GPI difference between the early and late onset groups.It is found that the anomalous warm（cold） SST over the tropical Atlantic,while uncorrected with the Nino3 index,persists from the preceding winter to concurrent summer in the early（late） onset group.The net surface heat flux anomaly always tends to damp the SSTA,which suggests that ocean dynamics may play a role in maintaining the SSTA in the tropical Atlantic.The SSTA pattern with a maximum center in northeastern tropical Atlantic appears responsible for generating the observed wind and moisture anomalies over the main TC development region.A further study is needed to understand the initiation mechanism of the SSTA in the Atlantic.