TRAMO/SEATS在危机事件中对旅游影响研究的应用

国内外对旅游危机事件的研究集中于管理方面,近年相关热点转向对旅游影响的研究。以往定性研究多,从经济数量模型进行定量分析研究的较少。本文使用在经济金融领域使用广泛的ARIMA改进版——TRAMO/SEATS方法评估危机事件,如疾病、地震等突发事件对中国旅游业的影响。作为欧盟各国统计局主要统计方法,TRAMO/SEATS方法能够最大程度地反映旅游业季节性波动的特点。通过该方法对2003年在中国内地和香港地区爆发的SARS进行实证研究,分析评估该危机事件的长期影响。在此基础上提出,国家短期内应当通过提高产品质量和拓展高质量的细分市场实现旅游效益型增长;恢复后期才可以推出更为直接的促销手法实现旅游数量型增长,采取刺激旅游人数快速增长的政策和措施。

监管政策对商业银行行为选择的冲击效应研究——基于H省若干家商业银行的TRAMO/SEATS检验

根据《巴塞尔协议》等国际公约的要求,中国的银行监管部门于2004年1月开始,在全国的银行系统推行严格的资本充足性管理。作为国际银行界主流的监管政策,资本充足性管理对商业银行的行为选择产生了深远的影响。本文选取了中国中部某省份2002年至2006年的商业银行数据,针对包括贷款对象结构、贷款期限结构和风险偏好结构三个表征商业银行行为特征的24个数据序列,运用TRAMO/SEATS的技术方法,实证检验了所有序列的结构性变动点以及监管政策的冲击效果。研究显示,当监管当局开始实施严格的资本充足性监管时,大多数商业银行都降低了风险偏好,说明监管政策的冲击效应十分明显;但是经过大约一年后,几乎所有的商业银行又选择恢复到初始状态,开始增加风险偏好,说明存在商业银行的资本约束软化效应。因此,若要保持资本监管政策的长期效果,还需不断完善相关制度体系建设。本文从商业银行行为变化的特征出发,提出了我国应对《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》挑战的若干建议。

基于TRAMO-SEATS的月售电量预测方法及应用

为提高月售电量预测准确度,引入TRAMOS-SEATS季节调整方法和Hodrick-Prescott滤波法将月售电量分解为趋势分量、季节分量、循环分量和不规则分量,消除了各分量之间的相互影响。采用ARIMA方法对趋势分量进行预测,采用Holt-Winters加法模型对季节分量进行预测,采用历史同期同类平均值法对循环分量和不规则分量进行预测,最后得到月售电量预测结果。应用实际算例对月售电量进行预测并与实际数据进行对比,验证法方法的正确性与有效性。

基于TRAMO/SEATS的北京月度入境游预测模型研究

本文运用在经济金融领域使用广泛的方法—TRAMO/SEATS方法对北京入境旅游人数开展短期预测研究。作为欧盟各国统计局主要统计方法,TRAMO/SEATS模型由于能有效提取时间序列数据中的信息,不仅预测精度高,而且稳定,能够最大程度地反映旅游业季节性波动的特点。实证分析表明,TRAMO/SEATS模型在北京入境旅游人次的短期预测方面预测能力极佳,能够为北京市入境旅游的短期经营策略提供良好的预测数据。

Optimization of Biodynamic Seated Human Models Using Genetic Algorithms

Many biodynamic models have been derived using trial and error curve-fitting technique, such that the error between the computed and measured biodynamic response functions is minimum. This study developed a biomechanical model of the human body in a sitting posture without backrest for evaluating the vibration transmissibility and dynamic response to vertical vibration direction. In describing the human body motion, a three biomechanical models are discussed (two models are 4-DOF and one model 7-DOF). Optimization software based on stochastic techniques search methods, Genetic Algorithms (GAs), is employed to determine the human model parameters imposing some limit constraints on the model parameters. In addition, an objective function is formulated comprising the sum of errors between the computed and actual values (experimental data). The studied functions are the driving-point mechanical impedance, apparent mass and seat- to-head transmissibility functions. The optimization process increased the average goodness of fit and the results of studied functions became much closer to the target values (Experimental data). From the optimized model, the resonant frequencies of the driver parts computed on the basis of biodynamic response functions are found to be within close bounds to that expected for the human body.

Numerical modeling of deep-seated landslides interacting with man-made structures

This paper describes the interaction between deep-seated landslides and man-made structures such as dams, penstocks, viaducts, and tunnels. Selected case studies are reported first with the intent to gain insights into the complexities associated with the interaction of these structures with deep-seated landslides(generally referred to as deep-seated gravity slope deformations, DSGSDs). The main features, which characterize these landslides, are mentioned together with the interaction problems encountered in each case. Given the main objective of this paper, the numerical modeling methods adopted are outlined as means for increase in the understanding of the interaction problems being investigated. With the above in mind, the attention moves to an important and unique case history dealing with the interaction of a large-size twin-tunnel excavated with an earth pressure balance(EPB)tunnel boring machine(TBM) and a deep-seated landslide, which was reactivated due to the stress changes induced by tunnel excavation in landslide shear zone. The geological and geotechnical conditions are described together with the available monitoring data on the landslide movements, based on the advanced and conventional monitoring tools used. Numerical modeling is illustrated as an aid to back-analyze the monitored surface and subsurface deformations and to assist in finding the appropriate engineering solution for putting the tunnel into service and as a follow-up means for future understanding and control of the interaction problems. The simulation is based on a novel time-dependent model representing the landslide behavior.

Numerical study on erosion behavior of sliding sleeve ball seat for hydraulic fracturing based on experimental data

The sleeve sealing ball seat is one of the important components in the multistage fracturing process of horizontal wells.The erosion and wear of the surface will decrease the sealing performance of the fracturing ball and the ball seat.This leads to pressure leakage during the fracturing process and fracturing failure.In this paper,combined with the actual ball seat materials and working conditions during the fracturing process,the erosion tests of ductile iron and tungsten carbide materials under different erosion speeds,angles,and mortar concentrations are carried out.Then the erosion test results were analyzed by mathematical fitting,and a set of erosion models suitable for sliding sleeve setting ball seat materials were innovatively established.For the first time,this paper combines the erosion model obtained from the experiment and the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)with Fluent software to simulate the erosion of the ball seat.Based on the simulation results,the morphology of the sliding sleeve seat ball after erosion is predicted.Through analysis of the test and simulation results,it is showed that the erosion rate of tungsten carbide material is lower and the wear resistance is better under the condition of small angle erosion.This research can offer a strong basis for fracturing site selection,surface treatment methods,and prediction of failure time of ball seats.

共享汽车驾驶员适宜H点和座椅参数实验研究

共享汽车具有车型统一、用户多变且使用频率高的特点,为提升共享汽车使用效率和驾乘体验,研发一种能根据驾驶员特征自动调节舒适坐姿的智能座椅意义重大。本文针对用户座椅调节存在的主观任意性导致的座椅舒适性问题,结合共享汽车智能座椅项目,以座椅H点前后位置、H点高低位置、坐垫角和靠背角4个变量为研究因子进行台架实验,分别研究5th、50th和95th百分位驾驶员的座椅舒适性受座椅参数的影响规律。首先,每个研究因子在参考车型范围内均匀选取3个实验水平,采用正交实验表对实验次数进行简化,确定正交实验须进行的组数并进行正交台架实验。实验人员对每组的座椅舒适性进行主观评价,同时通过压力测量仪和数显角度尺测量实验人员的体压分布信息和关节角度信息;其次,通过聚类分析确定了本文采用的以关节角度为客观参数的主客观舒适性评价体系,通过正交实验分析,得出了不同座椅参数对座椅舒适性的影响存在差异的结论,且随着驾驶员百分位的变化,对座椅舒适性造成影响的参数也在发生变化;最后,对正交实验所得数据进行修正拟合,构建了座椅适宜H点位置预测模型和靠背角度预测模型。

基于BP神经网络的儿童乘员头部损伤预测模型及评估参数研究

智能座舱与虚拟测评规程的推广,给乘员损伤评价带来新挑战,损伤机理与损伤风险评估参数更加多样化。本文基于图斯特6岁儿童乘员损伤仿生模型与BP神经网络算法构建正面100%重叠刚性壁障工况中乘员坐姿角度与头部损伤指标相关性预测模型,探究不同坐姿下头部损伤风险以及不同评价指标之间的相关性与差异性。结果表明,构建的相关性损伤预测模型具有良好的可信度(R2>0.90),可以用于损伤预测与分析。现有头部损伤评价指标在小角度坐姿范围内(95°~108°)对头损伤评估及预测具有良好的一致性,但是对于大角度坐姿乘员,不同损伤评价指标对头部损伤风险的评估存在显著差异。因此,目前实施的头部损伤评价参数具有局限性,未来虚拟测评中应综合运动学和生物力学参数对头部损伤风险进行更加全面的评估。该研究结果可以为儿童约束系统的改善、虚拟测评以及大角度坐姿乘员头部损伤评价参数的选取提供数据与理论支撑。

集总与多体耦合人车模型的振动特性仿真

为了更好地分析车辆行驶时人体的振动情况以及更好地评价人体的动态舒适性,通过COMSOL软件建立了集总参数与多体耦合人-椅-车动力学模型。利用滤波白噪声法建立随机路面时域模型作为人车系统的振动输入,对不同路面等级和车速下的人体振动响应进行时域和频域仿真分析。根据ISO 2631-1:1997(E)计算垂向和纵向人体头部以及臀部的加速度均方根值,以此来评价人体乘坐舒适性。研究结果表明,路面等级越低、车速越高,人体乘坐舒适性越差。提出的集总与多体耦合人-椅-车振动模型可以比较精确地计算出坐姿人体垂向、纵向的振动响应,有助于对车辆乘坐舒适性进行评价。

乘用车乘坐位置安全性研究

为研究中国乘用车乘坐位置安全性,基于中国交通事故深入研究项目(CIDAS)2011~2022年统计数据,分析了3种碰撞形态下各个乘坐位置的伤亡状况,利用危险度模型对前、后排位置乘员进行致命风险计算,并利用危险度加权模型和危险度几何平均模型分别对各个乘坐位置进行危险度计算。结果表明:前排相对于后排的致命风险系数为1.18;以驾驶员位置危险度100%作为参照标准,副驾驶位置危险度为79.57%、左后座危险度为105.23%、右后座危险度为93.82%、中后座危险度为191.69%。

乡镇滑坡灾害精细化易发性评价——以万州区熊家镇为例

地质灾害精细化易发性评价是乡镇尺度地质灾害风险防控的基础,探究适应于乡镇级评价精度需求和精细化调查数据的易发性评价方法成为研究的重点。以万州区熊家镇为研究区,在精细化地质灾害调查的基础上,将滑坡灾害细分为厚层堆积层滑坡和浅层堆积层滑坡,分别对其进行斜坡单元划分,并基于灾害的成因机制构建差异化的易发性评价指标体系;针对乡镇尺度评价区灾害样本数量少、难以采用统计和机器学习类评价方法的问题,引入多分类逻辑回归模型进行小样本区的易发性评价;综合滑坡单元、非滑坡单元和存在一定变形、但尚未形成整体滑移的不稳定斜坡单元,突破传统的0、1二元变量,构建包含“中间态”变量的易发性评价灾害样本集,从而实现对灾害样本的有效扩充和对不同程度易发性的量化评价。结果表明:浅层堆积层滑坡高和极高易发区主要位于研究区北部顺向坡以及中部、南部的人类活动集中区域,且70.59%的调查变形点位于高和极高易发区;厚层堆积层滑坡极高和高易发区主要分布于西部坡度较缓的河流两岸,评价结果精度AUC值为0.823。本研究对乡镇及其同等尺度地质灾害风险调查与评价具有参考价值。

基于KANO模型的家用适老化坐具设计

为深入研究老年人对家用适老化坐具的真实需求,文章通过运用KANO模型分析法,系统地分析老年人的需求,并对需求进行优先级排序。在设计中将首先满足必备需求,并优先关注排名更高的期望与魅力需求,为家用适老化坐具设计方法的研究提供依据。确保能够更好地满足老年人的实际需求,使设计方案更加科学和合理,提高老年人的使用满意度,为家用适老化坐具的设计研究提供新的思路。

基于THUMS数字人体模型的大倾角座椅正面碰撞乘员损伤分析

基于某大倾角座椅,利用THUMS数字人体模型,研究了座椅后倾姿态正面碰撞条件下的乘员损伤特征,并讨论了乘员损伤机理。研究结果表明,相较于常规坐姿,一方面大倾角座椅后倾姿态下传统约束系统无法实现乘员的有效约束,乘员易发生下潜而造成腹部、胸部、颈部的损伤风险,另一方面由于座椅的作用,乘员脊柱受到较大的轴向加速度载荷,存在损伤风险。最后,基于乘员的损伤特征及机理,进一步讨论了后倾姿态下乘员保护策略。

儿童乘员安全互联系统设计研究

以用户需求为出发点,解决儿童安全座椅及其互联系统设计方案的主观性和片面性问题,设计符合用户使用场景与体现用户情绪价值的儿童乘员安全互联系统。提出一种结合Kano模型、层次分析法(AHP)、QFD方法的创新设计方法,提取潜在用户需求,并根据权重确定优先级,分析用户需求对应的功能要求,并确定产品特性,作为方案设计依据。设计实例并对系统设计方案进行模糊综合评价。基于Kano-AHP-QFD的设计方法应用于儿童乘员安全互联系统设计,能够深度挖掘与剖析用户需求,使方案更加客观合理。该方法同样也适用于其他产品的设计与优化。

汽车半主动座椅悬架主要参数优化研究

半主动座椅悬架能有效改善驾驶平顺性,减少人体垂向振动,提升车内驾乘人员的乘坐体验.其中,半主动悬架的初始性能参数对悬架性能起到决定性作用.为此,本文针对半主动座椅悬架的初始性能参数(弹簧刚度和阻尼系数)的优化问题展开研究,在使用了随机路面模型、六自由度半车模型的基础上,以优化前后座椅垂向加速度之比作为适应度函数,利用遗传算法对半主动座椅悬架的刚度及阻尼系数进行优化.最后,利用MATLAB软件对优化结果进行仿真分析.结果表明,经算法优化后,座椅垂向加速度的均方根减少了16.4%,最大值下降了11.3%;座椅相对位移的均方根减少了36%,最大值下降了39.2%.

Simulation of the Interaction between Driver and Seat

Test is one of methods to acquire human-seat pressure distribution in driving, with the deficiency of being uneasy to obtain the stress information of soft tissue inside human body and the sheer force of interface between human and seat, which can be obtained by simulation. But current simulation method focuses mainly on calculation itself other than combining it with posture prediction and cab packaging parameters, which cause it difficult to acquire accurate pressure calculation results without accurate posture of human body, and make it almost meaningless to design optimization. Therefore, a human body geometric model with posture change capability is built and linked up with Cascade Prediction Model（CPM）, which takes cab packaging parameters as inputs. A detailed finite element model of driver human body is constructed and used to conduct the driver-seat interaction simulation between human body and seat. Good accordance of pressure distribution is observed between simulation and test, which validates the simulation. In addition to the distribution pattern, curves on key sections are used to analyze the pressure and shear stress on the seat surface, as well as soft tissue stress inside human body. The simulation shows that the maximum stress of buttocks locates under the ischial tuberosity, and the maximum stress of trunk occurs near the scapula posterior and the lower waist. These are the places where fatigue usually occurs. The maximum pressure of seat appears at the driver-seat contact area corresponding to the driver＇s maximum skin tissue stress. In order to guide the seat design and cab packaging and study the influence of posture to pressure distribution, finite element models for different levels of cab packaging parameters are created by using CPM. The pressure distributions are calculated and their tendencies varying with cab packaging parameters are obtained. The method presented provides a new way to accurately simulate the interaction between driver human body and seat, and to guide the seat design and cab packaging so as to improve seating comfort.

Retraction control of motorized seat belt system with linear state observer

A design and verification of linear state observers which estimate state information such as angular velocity and load torque for retraction control of the motorized seat belt (MSB) system were described. The motorized seat belt system provides functions to protect passengers and improve passenger's convenience. Each MSB function has its own required belt tension which is determined by the function's purpose. To realize the MSB functions, state information, such as seat belt winding velocity and seat belt tension are required. Using a linear state observer, the state information for MSB operations can be estimated without sensors. To design the linear state observer, the motorized seat belt system is analyzed and represented as a state space model which contains load torque as an augmented state. Based on the state space model, a linear state observer was designed and verified by experiments. Also, the retraction control of the MSB algorithm using linear state observer was designed and verified on the test bench. With the designed retraction control algorithm using the linear state observer, it is possible to realize various types of MSB functions.

磁流变半主动座椅悬架建模及振动特性分析

磁流变阻尼器力学模型及控制电流逆模型对半主动控制系统的控制精度具有重要影响.采用正弦及余弦型魔术公式,基于骨架曲线与滞回分离的建模方法,建立改进的磁流变阻尼器动态阻尼力模型;采用基于Sobol序列的差分-禁忌混合优化算法对阻尼力模型进行参数识别,构建包含激励特性及控制电流参数的通用数学模型;在试验测试及正向模型基础上,利用自适应神经模糊系统建立阻尼器控制电流逆模型.研究结果表明:本文建立的正逆模型均能够有效表征磁流变阻尼器的非线性行为及滞回特性;改进魔术公式模型在不同激励特性及电流工况下的平均百分比误差在3.4%附近变化;逆向动力学模型计算的控制电流误差均方根值为0.086 9~0.1171 A;经过控制电流逆模型与阻尼器正向模型串联模型计算的预测阻尼力误差均方根值为阻尼器最大阻尼力的5.6%;通过试验测试与仿真结果对比,验证了本文提出的阻尼器数学模型具有较好的精度和适用性,能够改善座椅悬架系统振动传递特性.