The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone

In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Late-Quaternary Slip Rate and Seismic Activity of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone in Southwest China

The Xianshuihe fault zone is a seismo-genetic fault zone of left-lateral slip in Southwest China. Since 1725, a total of 59 Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have occurred along this fault zone, including 18 Ms 6.0–6.9 and eight Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. The seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone is a large and realistic threat to the western Sichuan economic corridor. Based on previous studies, we carried out field geological survey and remote sensing interpretation in the fault zone. In addition, geophysical surveys, trenching and age-dating were conducted in the key parts to better understand the geometry, spatial distribution and activity of the fault zone. We infer to divide the fault zone into two parts： the northwest part and the southeast part, with total eight segments. Their Late Quaternary slip rates vary in a range of 11.5 mm/a –（3±1） mm/a. The seismic activities of the Xianshuihe fault zone are frequent and strong, periodical, and reoccurred. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical earthquakes, the seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been predicted by using the relationship between magnitude and frequency of earthquakes caused by different fault segments. The prediction results show that the segment between Daofu and Qianning has a possibility of Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes, while the segment between Shimian and Luding is likely to have earthquakes of about Ms 7.0. It is suggested to establish a GPS or In SAR-based real-time monitoring network of surface displacement to cover the Xianshuihe fault zone, and an early warning system of earthquakes and post seismic geohazards to cover the major residential areas.

Crustal structure beneath the Qilian Orogen Zone from multiscale seismic tomography

The Qilian Orogen Zone(QOZ), located in the north margin of the Tibetan Plateau, is the key area for understanding the deformation and dynamics process of Tibet. Numerous geological and geophysical studies have been carried out on the mechanics of the Tibetan Plateau deformation and uplift; however, the detailed structure and deformation style of the Qilian Orogen Zone have remained uncertain due to poor geophysical data coverage and limited resolution power of inversion algorithms. In this study, we analyze the P-wave velocity structure beneath the Qilian Orogen Zone, obtained by applying multi-scale seismic tomography technique to P-wave arrival time data recorded by regional seismic networks. The seismic tomography algorithm used in this study employs sparsity constraints on the wavelet representation of the velocity model via L1-norm regularization. This algorithm can deal efficiently with uneven-sampled volumes, and can obtain multi-scale images of the velocity model. Our results can be summarized as follows:(1) The crustal velocity structure is strongly inhomogeneous and consistent with the surface geological setting. Significant low-velocity anomalies exist in the crust of northeastern Tibet, and slight high-velocity anomalies exist beneath the Qaidam Basin and Alxa terrane.(2)The Qilian Orogen Zone can be divided into two main parts by the Laji Shan Faults: the northwestern part with a low-velocity feature, and the southeastern part with a high-velocity feature at the upper and middle crust.(3) Our tomographic images suggest that northwestern and southeastern Qilian Orogen Zones have undergone different tectonic processes. In the northwest Qilian Orogen Zone, the deformation and growth of the Northern Tibetan Plateau has extended to the Heli Shan and Beida Shan region by northward overthrusting at the upper crust and thickening in the lower crust. We speculate that in the southeast Qilian Orogen Zone the deformation and growth of the Northern Tibet Plateau were of strike-slip style at the upper crust; in the lower crust, the evidence suggests ductile shear extrusion style and active frontage extension to the Alxa terrane.(4) The multi-scale seismic tomography technique provides multiscale analysis and sparse constraints, which has allowed to us obtain stable, high-resolution results.

Characteristics of Late-Quaternary Activity and Seismic Risk of the Northeastern Section of the Longmenshan Fault Zone

Following the 2008 Wenchuan M8 earthquake,the seismic risk of the northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone and the adjacent Hanzhong basin has become an issue that receives much concern.It is facing,however,the problem of a lack of sufficient data because of little previous work in these regions.The northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone includes three major faults：the Qingchuan fault,Chaba-Lin＇ansi fault,and Liangshan south margin fault,with the Hanzhong basin at the northern end.This paper presents investigations of the geometry,motion nature,and activity ages of these three faults,and reveals that they are strike slip with normal faulting,with latest activity in the Late Pleistocene.It implies that this section of the Longmenshan fault zone has been in an extensional setting,probably associated with the influence of the Hanzhong basin.Through analysis of the tectonic relationship between the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin,this work verifies that the Qingchuan fault played an important role in the evolution of the Hanzhong basin,and further studies the evolution model of this basin.Finally,with consideration of the tectonic setting of the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin as well as seismicity of surrounding areas,this work suggests that this region has no tectonic conditions for great earthquakes and only potential strong events in the future.

Active source monitoring at the Wenchuan fault zone:coseismic velocity change associated with aftershock event and its implication

With the improvement of seismic observation system, more and more observations indicate that earthquakes may cause seismic velocity change. However, the amplitude and spatial distribution of the velocity variation remains a controversial issue. Recent active source monitoring carried out adjacent to Wenchuan Fault Scientific Drilling （WFSD） revealed unambiguous coseismic velocity change associated with a local M8 5.5 earthquake. Here, we carry out forward modeling using two-dimensional spectral element method to further investigate the amplitude and spatial distribution of observed velocity change. The model is well constrained by results from seismic reflection and WFSD coring. Our model strongly suggests that the observed coseismic velocity change is localized within the fault zone with width of ~ 120 m rather than dynamic strong ground shaking. And a velocity decrease of -2.0 % within the fault zone is required to fit the observed travel time delay distribution, which coincides with rock mechanical experiment and theoretical modeling.

Correlation between plate age and layer separation of double seismic zones

Global seismicity catalogs are sufficient for characterizing double seismic zones （DSZs） in subducting slab and facilitate to estimate layer separation without inconsistent uncertainties as local catalogs. Previous studies have shown the correlation between DSZs layer separation and plate age while correlation for those younger than -60 Ma is suspicious. The lacking of DSZs with layer separation less than 10 km further makes it difficult to precisely estimate such correlation. Thus, we incorporate eight DSZs data determined through local seismicity into globally-determined dataset and reexamine such correlation. The best fitting results show that both a linear model and a square root of plate age can mathematically fit the layer separation well. However, it is difficult to distinguish these two models when plate age is greater than -20 Ma since their difference is less than 2 km. However, if extrapolation is possible, both models should provide physical information that DSZs will not form if there is no subducting lithosphere. As a result, the DSZs cannot be produced until the oceanic lithospheric age becomes greater than 0.9 Ma in the square root model while the linear model gives a misleading result. As such the square root model demonstrates the relationship physically better than the linear one, it still needs further test in the future with more available data, nevertheless, our study might also provide evidence for the suggestion that the plate age is a primary control factor of the DSZs geometry as well as the subducting process which disregards any local tectonic stresses.

Geological Evidence and Characteristics of Activity of the Wuhe-Mingguang Section of Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone in Late Pleistocene

As the most influential strike-slip fault in East China,the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone draws scholars attention for its strong seismic activity. Nevertheless,most research has been conducted along segments in Shandong Province and Bohai Bay where huge earthquakes occur frequently. Meanwhile,it is generally believed that segments lying to the south of Huaihe River have been inactive since the late Quaternary and thus it is incapable of generating moderate or strong earthquakes. However,these understandings about the Tancheng-Lujiang fault have been questioned by our recent work for part of the fault south to the Huaihe River. Based on interpretation of high-resolution satellite images,detailed field investigations near Wuhe county and Mingguang City in northern Anhui Province and elaborate microstructure analysis, we come to the conclusion that the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone mainly consists of four branches and at least one should be active since the late Pleistocene for the Wuhe-Mingguang section. This segment is monopolized by dextral strike-slip motion in late Quaternary. Different from obvious faults in bed rocks or consolidated sediments,the latest activity trace in Quaternary loose sediment revealed by trench excavation is not obvious or even invisible to visual observation. According to our recent work and previous studies, we call for more attention to be paid to invisible faults in young sediment and also suggest that more research be conducted along this seemingly placid segment.

Characteristics of Compositional Migration in Mylonites from the Ductile Shear Zones of the Southern Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Belt, Eastern Anhui Province

On the basis of field geology, three typical ductile shear zones in the southern part of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault belt have been chosen for a detailed study. Altogether ten samples of the tectonites have been collected for this study. The paper is focused on a comprehensive study of the tectonites in the medium-lower horizons of the ductile shear zones. The mineral compositions of the rocks are analyzed with EPMA and some typical whole-rock samples analyzed by chemical and ICP methods. Based on the comprehensive study of the characteristics of the deformation, the mineral assemblages and the changes of chemical composition of the bulk rocks, this paper presents a discussion on the relationship between the volume loss, the fluid flow and compositional changes during mylonitization of the ductile shear zones in this region. Our study shows that there are a large amount of fluids flowing through the shear zones during the process of mylonization, accompanied by the loss of rock volume and migration of elements and components. Modelling calculation results under different saturation conditions of fluids show that the maximum volume loss of the tectonites is about 60% relative to their protolith, while the fluid/rock ratio ranges from 10 to 103 in different ductile shear zones.

Crust-mantle structure feature and the seismic activity of the main tectonic units in the North Tanlu fault zone

Using recent data of geoscience transaction in Northeast China, the author analyses and studies the crust-upper mantle structure feature of the North Tanlu fault zone. The result shows the crust-mantle structure are obvious difference at both sides of the North Tanlu fault zone. The fault activity and segmentation are closely related with abruptly change zone of the crust-upper mantle structure. There is a clear mirror image relationship between the big geomorphic shape and asthenosphere undulate, the former restricts tectonic stability and tectonic style of dif- ferent crustal units. The significantly strengthening seismicity of north set and south set in the North Tanlu fault zone just correspond to the low-velocity and high conductivity layer of crust-upper mantle. In the North Tanlu fault zone, the main controlling structure of the mid-strong seismic generally consists of the active fault sectors, whose crust-mantle structure is more complicated in rigidity massif.

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)that spans January 1,2005 to July 31,2020.We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data,resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet.The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit.We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD,which shows a more defined structure at depth.We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament,as defined by the magnetic anomaly,supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ.We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir,which is located about 5 km from the epicenter of the M_(W) 4.4 December 12,2018 Decatur,Tennessee earthquake,and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region.We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes.Our results show limited evidence for hydrologicallydriven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ,which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.

The Geothermal Study of the Mid-Segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone and Its Neighboring Region

In this paper,25 new terrestrial heat flow values newly observed along the mid-segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone are listed.With these geothermal data and 37 other terrestrial heat flow values(previously published),we describe the distribution features of terrestrial heat flows in the area.In this research,the two-dimensional temperature structure from the surface to lithospheric bottom of the Huaibei-Sixian-Jinhu profile is inferred by using the finite-element method and the temperature and heat flow of sedimentary,granitic,and basaltic layers is calculated.

Spatial-temporal characterization of the San Andreas Fault by fault-zone trapped waves at seismic experiment site,Parkfield,California

In this article,we review our previous research for spatial and temporal characterizations of the San Andreas Fault(SAF)at Parkfield,using the fault-zone trapped wave(FZTW)since the middle 1980s.Parkfield,California has been taken as a scientific seismic experimental site in the USA since the 1970s,and the SAF is the target fault to investigate earthquake physics and forecasting.More than ten types of field experiments(including seismic,geophysical,geochemical,geodetic and so on)have been carried out at this experimental site since then.In the fall of 2003,a pair of scientific wells were drilled at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth(SAFOD)site;the main-hole(MH)passed a~200-m-wide low-velocity zone(LVZ)with highly fractured rocks of the SAF at a depth of~3.2 km below the wellhead on the ground level(Hickman et al.,2005;Zoback,2007;Lockner et al.,2011).Borehole seismographs were installed in the SAFOD MH in 2004,which were located within the LVZ of the fault at~3-km depth to probe the internal structure and physical properties of the SAF.On September 282004,a M6 earthquake occurred~15 km southeast of the town of Parkfield.The data recorded in the field experiments before and after the 2004 M6 earthquake provided a unique opportunity to monitor the co-mainshock damage and post-seismic heal of the SAF associated with this strong earthquake.This retrospective review of the results from a sequence of our previous experiments at the Parkfield SAF,California,will be valuable for other researchers who are carrying out seismic experiments at the active faults to develop the community seismic wave velocity models,the fault models and the earthquake forecasting models in global seismogenic regions.

Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China

In this paper, the earthquake hazard parameters (λ m,b and M max) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation. The declustered catalogues have been compiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period. As an example, Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966 to 1976. The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λ m,b is significant. The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period, at most, 45% and 90%, respectively. But the difference in M max is smaller. Based on this, the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made, but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.

Deformation of the Most Recent Co-seismic Surface Ruptures Along the Garzê–Yushu Fault Zone(Dangjiang Segment)and Tectonic Implications For the Tibetan Plateau

The Garzê–Yushu strike-slip fault in central Tibet is the locus of strong earthquakes（M 〉 7）. The deformation and geometry of the co-seismic surface ruptures are reflected in the surface morphology of the fault and depend on the structure of the upper crust as well as the pre-existing tectonics. Therefore, the most recent co-seismic surface ruptures along the Garzê–Yushu fault zone（Dangjiang segment） reveal the surface deformation of the central Tibetan Plateau. Remote sensing images and field investigations suggest a 85 km long surface rupture zone（striking NW-NWW）, less than 50 m wide, defined by discontinuous fault scarps, right-stepping en echelon tensional cracks and left-stepping mole tracks that point to a left-lateral strike-slip fault. The gullies that cross fault scarps record systematic left-lateral offsets of 1.8 m to 5.0 m owing to the most recent earthquake, with moment magnitude of about M 7.5, in the Dangjiang segment. Geological and geomorphological features suggest that the spatial distribution of the 1738 co-seismic surface rupture zone was controlled by the pre-existing active Garzê–Yushu fault zone（Dangjiang segment）. We confirm that the Garzê–Yushu fault zone, a boundary between the Bayan Har Block to the north and the Qiangtang Block to the south, accommodates the eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau and generates strong earthquakes that release the strain energy owing to the relative motion between the Bayan Har and Qiangtang Blocks.

An Analysis on Correlativity between Large Earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir and Tienshan Seismic Zone

In this paper,we introduce the tectonic setting,historical earthquake focal mechanisms and geodynamic environment of Tienshan and its neighboring regions, and draw a conclusion that large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are governed mainly by the pushing from Hindu Kush-Pamir syntax. Secondly,the relationship of large earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir region and the Tienshan seismic zone is investigated,and synchronization features are found existing in the grouped large earthquakes between the large earthquakes in two regions. The relationship between intermediate-focus large earthquakes in Hindu Kush-Pamir and shallow large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone is also discussed. The same synchronization characteristics are found,and the intensity and frequency of intermediate-focus earthquakes are fiercer, while large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are more intense,with a wider distribution range. The above results confirm the geodynamic correlativity between Hindu Kush-Pamir and the Tienshan seismic zone from the viewpoint of seismicity.

Influence of uncertainty in delimitation of seismic statistical zone on results of PSHA

The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statis-tical zone scenarios. The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the evaluation result is discussed too. It can be seen that for those local sites along zone's border or within areas with vast change of upper bound magnitude among different scenarios the influence on seismic hazard result should not be neglected.

Discussion about the relationship between seismic belt and seismic statistical zone

This paper makes a summary of status of delimitation of seismic zones and belts of China firstly in aspects of studying history, purpose, usage, delimiting principles, various presenting forms and main specialties. Then the viewpoints are emphasized, making geographical divisions by seismicity is just the most important purpose of delimiting seismic belts and the concept of seismic belt is also quite different from that of seismic statistical zone used in CPSHA method. The concept of seismic statistical zone and its history of evolvement are introduced too. Large differences between these rwo concepts exist separately in their statistical property, actual meaning, gradation, required scale, and property of refusing to overlap each other, aim and usage of delimitation. But in current engineering practice, these two concepts are confused. On the one hand, it causes no fit theory for delimiting seismic statistical zone in PSHA to be set up; on the other hand, researches about delimitation of seismic belts with purposes of seismicity zoning and studying on structural environment, mechanism of earthquake generating also pause to go ahead. Major conclusions are given in the end of this paper, that seismic statistical zone bases on the result of seismic belt delimiting, it only arises in and can be used in the especial PSHA method of China with considering spatially and temporally inhomogeneous seismic activities, and its concept should be clearly differentiated from the concept of seismic belt.

Lattice-Preferred orientations of olivine in subducting oceanic lithosphere derived from the observed seismic anisotropies in double seismic zones

Subduction zones can generally be classified into Mariana type and Chilean type depending on plate ages, plate thicknesses, subduction angles, back-arc deformation patterns, etc. The double seismic zones （DSZs） in sub- duction zones are mainly divided into type I and type II which, respectively, correspond to the Mariana type and Chilean type in most cases. Seismic anisotropy is an important parameter characterizing the geophysical fea- tures of the lithosphere, including the subduction zones, and can be described by the two parameters of delay time ~t and fast wave polarization direction ~b. We totally col- lected 524 seismic anisotropy data records from 24 DSZs and analyzed the statistical correlations between seismic anisotropy and the related physical parameters of DSZs. Our statistical analysis demonstrated that the fast wave polarization directions are parallel to the trench strike with no more than 30~ for most type I DSZs, while being nearlyperpendicular to the trench strike for type II DSZs. We also calculated roughly linear correlations that the delay time 6t increases with dip angles but decreases with subduction rates. A linear equation was summarized to describe the strong correlation between DSZ＇s subduction angle DSZ and seismic anisotropy in subduction zones. These results suggest that the anisotropic structure of the subducting lithosphere can be described as a possible equivalent crystal similar to the olivine crystal with three mutually orthogonal polarization axes, of which the longest and the second axes are nearly along the trench-perpendicular and trench-parallel directions, respectively.