Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence o...Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao’er River Basin(TRB),one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper,middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios.The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m^(3) for RCP4.5 and 8.5,respectively.The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5,while those would be-5.3% and-10.7%lower for RCP8.5.The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios.The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios,and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.展开更多
A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeaste...A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that: 1) Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air tem- perature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao'er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air tem- perature. 2) Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3) Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4) Among all sensitiv- ity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative hu- midity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.展开更多
Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abru...Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.展开更多
In a case study in Tao River Basin, China, we derived a high spatial-resolution regional distribution of evapotranspiration(ET) using the single crop coefficient method and Budyko equation. We then further analyzed th...In a case study in Tao River Basin, China, we derived a high spatial-resolution regional distribution of evapotranspiration(ET) using the single crop coefficient method and Budyko equation. We then further analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of this diverse eco-hydrological basin from 2001–2010. The results suggest that the single crop coefficient method based on leaf area index captures better spatial and temporal dynamics of the regional ET than did the Budyko Equation method. The rising temperature was the main reason for the increasing ET in the Tao River Basin during 2001–2010. Areas with high ET efficiency were distributed mainly in the areas where the vegetation coverage was high, and a lower runoff coefficient responded. The estimated spatial patterns of ET allowed an improved understanding of the eco-hydrological processes within the Tao River Basin and the method used might be generalized as a reference for future regional-scale eco-hydrological research.展开更多
基金the Key R&D Projects of Jilin Provincial Science and Technology Department(20200403070SF)Young Top-Notch Talent Support Program of National High-level Talents Special Support Plan+2 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(NO.2017YFC0403506)China Water Resource Conservation and Protection Project(No.126302001000150005)Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering(NO.2016-ZD-08-05-02)。
文摘Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage,droughts and floods in northeast China.A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao’er River Basin(TRB),one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper,middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios.The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m^(3) for RCP4.5 and 8.5,respectively.The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5,while those would be-5.3% and-10.7%lower for RCP8.5.The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios.The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios,and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40571029)
文摘A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that: 1) Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air tem- perature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao'er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air tem- perature. 2) Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3) Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4) Among all sensitiv- ity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative hu- midity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.
基金the National Key Research and Development Programs of China(2016YFA0601501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41830863,51879162,41601025)the Belt and Road Fund on Water and Sustainability of the State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering(2019).
文摘Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.
基金supported by the Doctoral Program of China’s Higher Education Research Fund(Grant No.20110211110011)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41001014,41240002,51209119)
文摘In a case study in Tao River Basin, China, we derived a high spatial-resolution regional distribution of evapotranspiration(ET) using the single crop coefficient method and Budyko equation. We then further analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of this diverse eco-hydrological basin from 2001–2010. The results suggest that the single crop coefficient method based on leaf area index captures better spatial and temporal dynamics of the regional ET than did the Budyko Equation method. The rising temperature was the main reason for the increasing ET in the Tao River Basin during 2001–2010. Areas with high ET efficiency were distributed mainly in the areas where the vegetation coverage was high, and a lower runoff coefficient responded. The estimated spatial patterns of ET allowed an improved understanding of the eco-hydrological processes within the Tao River Basin and the method used might be generalized as a reference for future regional-scale eco-hydrological research.
