Objective:To explore the modeling of time series of animal bite occurrence in northwest Iran.Methods:In this study,we analyzed surveillance time series data for animal bite cases in the northwest Iran province of Iran...Objective:To explore the modeling of time series of animal bite occurrence in northwest Iran.Methods:In this study,we analyzed surveillance time series data for animal bite cases in the northwest Iran province of Iran from 2011 to 2017.We used decomposition methods to explore seasonality and long-term trends and applied the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model to fit a univariate time series of animal bite incidence.The ARIMA modeling process involved selecting the time series,transforming the series,selecting the appropriate model,estimating parameters,and forecasting.Results:Our results using the Box Jenkins model showed a significant seasonal trend and an overall increase in animal bite incidents during the study period.The best-fitting model for the available data was a seasonal ARIMA model with drift in the form of ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,1).This model can be used to forecast the frequency of animal attacks in northwest Iran over the next two years,suggesting that the incidence of animal attacks in the region would continue to increase during this time frame(2018-2019).Conclusion:Our findings suggest that time series analysis is a useful method for investigating animal bite cases and predicting future occurrences.The existence of a seasonal trend in animal bites can also aid in planning healthcare services during different seasons of the year.Therefore,our study highlights the importance of implementing proactive measures to address the growing issue of animal bites in Iran.展开更多
Pursuing the green manufacturing (GM) of products i s very beneficial in the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing proc es...Pursuing the green manufacturing (GM) of products i s very beneficial in the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing proc esses. During the machining process, cutting fluid is one of the main roots of e nvironmental pollution. And how to make an optimal selection for cutting fluid f or GM is an important path to reduce the environmental pollution. The objective factors of decision-making problems in the traditional selection of cutting flu id are usually two: quality and cost. But from the viewpoint of GM, environmenta l impact (E) should be considered together. In this paper, a multi-object d ecision-making model of cutting fluid selection for GM is put forward, in which the objects of Quality (Q), Cost(C) and Environmental impact (E) are considered together. In this model, E means to minimize the environmental impact, Q means to maximize the quality and C means to minimize the cost. Each objective is anal yzed in detail too. A case study on a decision-making problem of cutting fluid selection in a gear hobbing process is analyzed, and the result shows the model is practical.展开更多
A new numerical model is presented to simulate fracture initiation and propagation in geological structures. This model is based on the recent amalgamation of established failure and fracture mechanics theory, which h...A new numerical model is presented to simulate fracture initiation and propagation in geological structures. This model is based on the recent amalgamation of established failure and fracture mechanics theory, which has been implemented to the finite difference FLAC code as a constitutive FISH userdefined-model. Validation of the model has been studied on the basis of comparing the transitional failure modes in rock. It is shown that the model is capable of accurately simulating fracture distributions over entire brittle to ductile rock phases. The application of the model during longwall retreat simulation highlighted several caving characteristics relevant to varying geological condition. The distribution and behaviour of modelled fractures were both realistic and shown to provide an enhanced post failure analysis to geological structures in FLAC. Moreover, the model introduces new potential insight towards the failure analysis of more complicated problems. This is best suited towards improving safety and efficiency in mines through the prediction of various key fractures and caving characteristics of geological structures.展开更多
Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conce...Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conceptual water balance model and econometric regression to estimate water shortage and its related uncertainties in water-scarce areas. This hybrid approach was used to assess the agricultural water deficit of Beijing, an extremely water-scarce area in China. A predictive model of agricultural water demand was developed using the stepwise multiple regression method, and was validated by comparing the predicted values with observed data. Scenario analysis was employed to investigate the uncertainties of agricultural water shortage and agricultural water demand. This modeling approach can assist water administration in creating sustainable water allocation strategies in water-scarce areas.展开更多
Communication based train control systems(CBTC) must work even in the worst situation—train crossing.This paper models the propagation characteristics in one of the most common and pivotal scenarios—train crossing i...Communication based train control systems(CBTC) must work even in the worst situation—train crossing.This paper models the propagation characteristics in one of the most common and pivotal scenarios—train crossing in subway tunnels which is rarely mentioned in previous publications.Firsdy,measurements for train crossing scenario at 2.4 GHz in a real subway line in Madrid have been made.The field measurement is the most reliable way to reveal the propagation characteristics involving shadowing effect and fast fading.Moreover,to precisely describe the fast fading distribution and eliminate the inevitable weak points of traditional fitting way,a best numerical approximation method using Legendre orthogonal polynomials has been proposed.Comparisons show that this method works better and is of greater physical significance.Finally,a complete statistical model is given and all the coefficients can be applied by system designers for the link and system level simulations.展开更多
This paper proposes a case study in the control of a heavy oil pyrolysis/cracking furnace with a newly extended U-model based pole placement controller(U-PPC). The major work of the paper includes: 1) establishing a c...This paper proposes a case study in the control of a heavy oil pyrolysis/cracking furnace with a newly extended U-model based pole placement controller(U-PPC). The major work of the paper includes: 1) establishing a control oriented nonlinear dynamic model with Naphtha cracking and thermal dynamics; 2) analysing a U-model(i.e., control oriented prototype) representation of various popular process model sets; 3)designing the new U-PPC to enhance the control performance in pole placement and stabilisation; 4) taking computational bench tests to demonstrate the control system design and performance with a user-friendly step by step procedure.展开更多
This paper presents the derivation of an analytical model for a multi-queue nodes network router, which is referred to as the multi-queue nodes （mQN） model. In this model, expressions are derived to calculate two pe...This paper presents the derivation of an analytical model for a multi-queue nodes network router, which is referred to as the multi-queue nodes （mQN） model. In this model, expressions are derived to calculate two performance metrics, namely, the queue node and system utilization factors. In order to demonstrate the flexibility and effectiveness of the mQN model in analyzing the performance of an mQN network router, two scenarios are performed. These scenarios investigated the variation of queue nodes and system utilization factors against queue nodes dropping probability for various system sizes and packets arrival routing probabilities. The performed scenarios demonstrated that the mQN analytical model is more flexible and effective when compared with experimental tests and computer simulations in assessing the performance of an mQN network router.展开更多
Wireless technology provides accurate positioning in indoor environments using time of arrival(TOA) based ranging techniques. However, the positioning accuracy is degraded due to the ranging errors caused by multipath...Wireless technology provides accurate positioning in indoor environments using time of arrival(TOA) based ranging techniques. However, the positioning accuracy is degraded due to the ranging errors caused by multipath and non-line-of-sight(NLOS) propagation. In this paper, a ranging error correction method is proposed to improve positioning performance. A TOA ranging error model(TREM) is built to provide the prior information for ranging error correction first. The mean value of TREM within a certain interval is used as the ranging error correction value(RECV). As the RECV may be unreasonable sometimes, we adjust it according to the actual positioning situation and then exploit the final RECV to correct ranging data. The experimental results show that the proposed method could well reduce ranging errors and the positioning performance is obviously improved when using corrected ranging data.展开更多
The friction of road surface covered by snow or ice is very low and that results in reducing vehicle traction forces and potential traffic accidents. In general, to establish a master curve on a rubber-ice friction mo...The friction of road surface covered by snow or ice is very low and that results in reducing vehicle traction forces and potential traffic accidents. In general, to establish a master curve on a rubber-ice friction model is difficult because the ice surface, being not far removed from its melting point, reacts itself very sen-sitively to pressure, speed, and temperature changes. In this paper, an accepta-ble frictional interaction model was implemented to finite element method to rationally examine the frictional interaction behavior on ice between the tire and the road surface. The formula of friction characteristic according to tem-perature and sliding velocity on the ice surface was applied for tire traction analysis. Numerical results were verified by comparing the outdoor test data and it was confirmed to indicate similar correlation. It is found that the rub-ber-ice friction model will be useful for the improvement of the ice traction performance of tire.展开更多
Based on the movement regularity of surrounding rock with road-in packing of gob-side entry retaining in fully-mechanized sub-level caving face(RPGERFCF),the me- chanical model of its surrounding rock was established ...Based on the movement regularity of surrounding rock with road-in packing of gob-side entry retaining in fully-mechanized sub-level caving face(RPGERFCF),the me- chanical model of its surrounding rock was established and the calculating formulas of the deformation of the roof,coal wall and filling body were attained.By the mechanical analy- sis to the deformation of the surrounding rock of RPGERFCF,the major factors influencing the deformation of the surrounding rock were found out and the technologic approaches reduced the deformation and enhanced the stability of the surrounding rock were put for- ward.Consequently,the scientific bases were provided for the stability control of the sur- rounding rock of RPGERFCF.展开更多
文摘Objective:To explore the modeling of time series of animal bite occurrence in northwest Iran.Methods:In this study,we analyzed surveillance time series data for animal bite cases in the northwest Iran province of Iran from 2011 to 2017.We used decomposition methods to explore seasonality and long-term trends and applied the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model to fit a univariate time series of animal bite incidence.The ARIMA modeling process involved selecting the time series,transforming the series,selecting the appropriate model,estimating parameters,and forecasting.Results:Our results using the Box Jenkins model showed a significant seasonal trend and an overall increase in animal bite incidents during the study period.The best-fitting model for the available data was a seasonal ARIMA model with drift in the form of ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,1).This model can be used to forecast the frequency of animal attacks in northwest Iran over the next two years,suggesting that the incidence of animal attacks in the region would continue to increase during this time frame(2018-2019).Conclusion:Our findings suggest that time series analysis is a useful method for investigating animal bite cases and predicting future occurrences.The existence of a seasonal trend in animal bites can also aid in planning healthcare services during different seasons of the year.Therefore,our study highlights the importance of implementing proactive measures to address the growing issue of animal bites in Iran.
文摘Pursuing the green manufacturing (GM) of products i s very beneficial in the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing proc esses. During the machining process, cutting fluid is one of the main roots of e nvironmental pollution. And how to make an optimal selection for cutting fluid f or GM is an important path to reduce the environmental pollution. The objective factors of decision-making problems in the traditional selection of cutting flu id are usually two: quality and cost. But from the viewpoint of GM, environmenta l impact (E) should be considered together. In this paper, a multi-object d ecision-making model of cutting fluid selection for GM is put forward, in which the objects of Quality (Q), Cost(C) and Environmental impact (E) are considered together. In this model, E means to minimize the environmental impact, Q means to maximize the quality and C means to minimize the cost. Each objective is anal yzed in detail too. A case study on a decision-making problem of cutting fluid selection in a gear hobbing process is analyzed, and the result shows the model is practical.
文摘A new numerical model is presented to simulate fracture initiation and propagation in geological structures. This model is based on the recent amalgamation of established failure and fracture mechanics theory, which has been implemented to the finite difference FLAC code as a constitutive FISH userdefined-model. Validation of the model has been studied on the basis of comparing the transitional failure modes in rock. It is shown that the model is capable of accurately simulating fracture distributions over entire brittle to ductile rock phases. The application of the model during longwall retreat simulation highlighted several caving characteristics relevant to varying geological condition. The distribution and behaviour of modelled fractures were both realistic and shown to provide an enhanced post failure analysis to geological structures in FLAC. Moreover, the model introduces new potential insight towards the failure analysis of more complicated problems. This is best suited towards improving safety and efficiency in mines through the prediction of various key fractures and caving characteristics of geological structures.
基金supported by the Sino-Swiss Science and Technology Cooperation Program of Switzerlandthe Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2009DFA22980)
文摘Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conceptual water balance model and econometric regression to estimate water shortage and its related uncertainties in water-scarce areas. This hybrid approach was used to assess the agricultural water deficit of Beijing, an extremely water-scarce area in China. A predictive model of agricultural water demand was developed using the stepwise multiple regression method, and was validated by comparing the predicted values with observed data. Scenario analysis was employed to investigate the uncertainties of agricultural water shortage and agricultural water demand. This modeling approach can assist water administration in creating sustainable water allocation strategies in water-scarce areas.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.60830001)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(No.NCET-09-0206)+2 种基金the Key Project of State Key Lab.of Rail Traffic Control and Safety(No.RCS2008ZZ006)Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University(No.IRT0949)the Project of State Key Lab.of Rail Traffic Control and Safety(No.RCS2008ZT005)
文摘Communication based train control systems(CBTC) must work even in the worst situation—train crossing.This paper models the propagation characteristics in one of the most common and pivotal scenarios—train crossing in subway tunnels which is rarely mentioned in previous publications.Firsdy,measurements for train crossing scenario at 2.4 GHz in a real subway line in Madrid have been made.The field measurement is the most reliable way to reveal the propagation characteristics involving shadowing effect and fast fading.Moreover,to precisely describe the fast fading distribution and eliminate the inevitable weak points of traditional fitting way,a best numerical approximation method using Legendre orthogonal polynomials has been proposed.Comparisons show that this method works better and is of greater physical significance.Finally,a complete statistical model is given and all the coefficients can be applied by system designers for the link and system level simulations.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61273188,61473312)Taishan Scholar Construction Engineering Special Funding of Shandong
文摘This paper proposes a case study in the control of a heavy oil pyrolysis/cracking furnace with a newly extended U-model based pole placement controller(U-PPC). The major work of the paper includes: 1) establishing a control oriented nonlinear dynamic model with Naphtha cracking and thermal dynamics; 2) analysing a U-model(i.e., control oriented prototype) representation of various popular process model sets; 3)designing the new U-PPC to enhance the control performance in pole placement and stabilisation; 4) taking computational bench tests to demonstrate the control system design and performance with a user-friendly step by step procedure.
文摘This paper presents the derivation of an analytical model for a multi-queue nodes network router, which is referred to as the multi-queue nodes （mQN） model. In this model, expressions are derived to calculate two performance metrics, namely, the queue node and system utilization factors. In order to demonstrate the flexibility and effectiveness of the mQN model in analyzing the performance of an mQN network router, two scenarios are performed. These scenarios investigated the variation of queue nodes and system utilization factors against queue nodes dropping probability for various system sizes and packets arrival routing probabilities. The performed scenarios demonstrated that the mQN analytical model is more flexible and effective when compared with experimental tests and computer simulations in assessing the performance of an mQN network router.
基金supported in part by Huawei Innovation Research Program(Grant No.YB2013020011)
文摘Wireless technology provides accurate positioning in indoor environments using time of arrival(TOA) based ranging techniques. However, the positioning accuracy is degraded due to the ranging errors caused by multipath and non-line-of-sight(NLOS) propagation. In this paper, a ranging error correction method is proposed to improve positioning performance. A TOA ranging error model(TREM) is built to provide the prior information for ranging error correction first. The mean value of TREM within a certain interval is used as the ranging error correction value(RECV). As the RECV may be unreasonable sometimes, we adjust it according to the actual positioning situation and then exploit the final RECV to correct ranging data. The experimental results show that the proposed method could well reduce ranging errors and the positioning performance is obviously improved when using corrected ranging data.
文摘The friction of road surface covered by snow or ice is very low and that results in reducing vehicle traction forces and potential traffic accidents. In general, to establish a master curve on a rubber-ice friction model is difficult because the ice surface, being not far removed from its melting point, reacts itself very sen-sitively to pressure, speed, and temperature changes. In this paper, an accepta-ble frictional interaction model was implemented to finite element method to rationally examine the frictional interaction behavior on ice between the tire and the road surface. The formula of friction characteristic according to tem-perature and sliding velocity on the ice surface was applied for tire traction analysis. Numerical results were verified by comparing the outdoor test data and it was confirmed to indicate similar correlation. It is found that the rub-ber-ice friction model will be useful for the improvement of the ice traction performance of tire.
基金the National Science Foundation of China(50674046)National Science Important Foundation(50634050)Hunan Science Foundation(06JJ50092)
文摘Based on the movement regularity of surrounding rock with road-in packing of gob-side entry retaining in fully-mechanized sub-level caving face(RPGERFCF),the me- chanical model of its surrounding rock was established and the calculating formulas of the deformation of the roof,coal wall and filling body were attained.By the mechanical analy- sis to the deformation of the surrounding rock of RPGERFCF,the major factors influencing the deformation of the surrounding rock were found out and the technologic approaches reduced the deformation and enhanced the stability of the surrounding rock were put for- ward.Consequently,the scientific bases were provided for the stability control of the sur- rounding rock of RPGERFCF.
