The study of the life cycle of technology assessment model

The life cycle of technology is one of the most important indexes to weigh up the risk of the investment to neo tech.There are so many uncertainties because it is conditioned by a lot of factors,we can not make a rational forecasting by traditional assessment method.So this paper gives a comprehensive consideration to the factors that influence production and makes some modification to production function, and establishes the life cycle of technology assessmet model by the method of fuzzy mathematics. So it quantifies the risk of investment.We can take it as one foundational index for the decision making of the investment.

Identifying grey-rhino in eminent technologies via patent analysis

Purpose:Following the typical features of the grey-rhino event as predictability and profound influence,we attempt to find a special pattern called the grey-rhino in eminent technologies via patent analysis.Design/methodology/approach:We propose to combine triadic patent families and technology life cycle to define the grey-rhino model.Firstly,we design the indicator rhino-index Rh=ST/SP and descriptor sequence{Rh},where ST and SP are the accumulative number of triadic patent families and all patent families respectively for a specific technology.Secondly,according to the two typical features of the grey-rhino event,a grey-rhino is defined as a technology that meets both qualitative and quantitative conditions.Qualitatively,this technology has a profound influence.Quantitatively,in the emerging stage,Rh≥Rae,where Rae is the average level of the proportion of triadic patent families.Finally,this model is verified in three datasets,namely Encyclopedia Britannica’s list for the greatest inventions(EB technologies for short),MIT breakthrough technologies(MIT technologies)and Derwent Manual Code technologies(MAN technologies).Findings:The result shows that there are 64.71%EB technologies and 50.00%MIT technologies meeting the quantitative standard of the grey-rhino model,but only 14.71%MAN technologies fit the quantitative standard.This falling trend indicates the quantitative standard of the grey-rhino model is reasonable.EB technologies and MIT technologies have profound influence on society,which means they satisfy the qualitative standard of the grey-rhino model.Hence,64.71%EB technologies and 50.00%MIT technologies are grey-rhinos.In 14.71%MAN technologies meeting the quantitative standard,we make some qualitative judgments and deem U11-A01A,U12-A01A1A,and W01-A01A as grey-rhino technologies.In addition,grey-rhinos and non-grey-rhinos have some differences.Rh values of grey-rhinos have a downward trend,while Rh values of non-grey-rhinos have a contrary trend.Rh values of grey-rhinos are scattered relatively in the early stage and centralize gradually,but non-grey-rhinos do not have this feature.Research limitations:There are four main limitations.First,if a technology satisfies the quantitative standard of the model,it is likely to be a grey-rhino but expert judgments are necessary.Second,we don’t know why it will be eminent,which involves technical contents.Thirdly,we did not consider the China National Intellectual Property Administration(CNIPA)and the German Patent and Trademark Office(DPMA)which also play important roles in worldwide patents,so we hope to expand our study to the CNIPA and the DPMA.Furthermore,we did not compare the rhino-index with other patent indicators.Practical implications:If a technology meets the quantitative standard,this can be seen as early warning signals and the technology may become a grey-rhino in the future,which can catch people’s attention in the emerging stage and make people seize the technical opportunity early.Originality/value:We define and verify a new pattern called the grey-rhino model in eminent technologies.

Blockchain technology forecasting by patent analytics and text mining

Information technologies(ITs)have been playing an important role in improving our society,and the fast evolution of ITs creates a competitive environment not only for companies but also for regions.Hence,recognizing the future trend of technologies can be effective in decision-making with regard to technology selection and investment.Blockchain technology with its vast and impressive applications has received considerable attention from researchers,investors,and public agencies.The purpose of this research is to investigate blockchain technology to explore its trends according to their classification by use of the World Intellectual Property Organization(WIPO)database.Furthermore,we particularly evaluate the registered patents in the world's most well-known patent databases such as the USA patent database.We drew the current technology trends in blockchain patents by applying the text mining and clustering approach.The results represent that the registered patents in the USA patent database have been achieved in the growth phase.That means,attention to the blockchain is rising nowadays and most patents focused the cryptocurrencies and their applications in finance.However,blockchain technology is in the emergence phase and is evolving by researchers and inventors.

Mapping the trends and prospects of battery cathode materials based on patent landscape

Advancing portable electronics and electric vehicles is heavily dependent on the cutting-edge lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology, which is closely linked to the properties of cathode materials. Identifying trends and prospects of cathode materials based on patent analysis is considered a kernel to optimize and refine battery related markets. In this paper, a patent analysis is performed on 6 popular cathode materials by comprehensively considering performance comparison, development trend, annual installed capacity, technology life cycle, and distribution among regions and patent assignees. In the technology life cycle, the cathode materials majorly used in electric vehicle have entered maturity stage, while the lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) cathode that is widely used in portable electronics is still in the growth stage. In global patent distributions, China holds more than 50% of total patents. In the top 10 patent assignees of 6 cathode materials, 2 institutes are from China with the rest being Japan (6) and Republic of Korea (2), indicating that the technology of cathode materials in China is relatively scattered while cathode research is highly concentrated in Japan and Republic of Korea. Moreover, the patent distribution has to consider practical issues as well as the impacts of core patents. For example, the high cost discourages the intention of applying international patents. This paper is expected to stimulate battery research, understand technical layout of various countries, and probably forecast innovative technology breakthroughs.