Relation between sea surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic and summer precipitation over the Northeast China

Based on global monthly average data set of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1950 - 1992 and global monthly average 500 hPa height during 1930- 1997 offered by NCARINCEP, the feature of SST anomaly in the Atlantic and its relation with summer precipitation over the Northeast China are analyzed. The results show that, the second eigenvector of the SST’s empirical orthogonal expanssion in winter season over the North Atlantic suggests that dist-ibution of SST anomaly has unusual meridional difference; The location of its center is basically identical to center of significant correlation region be- tween summer precipitation over the Northeast China and winter SST in the Atlantic. When winter SST in the North Atlantic is hot in south and cold in north, the blocking situation is stronger in the middle- high latitude. Correspondingly, the blocking high pressure in the northern North Pacific is also getting stronger, the westerlies circulation index in East Asia in next summer would be lower,as a result,more precipitation in the summer would be experienced over Northeast China and vice versa.

The long-term variability of sea surface temperature in the seas east of China in the past 40 a

The global surface temperature change since the mid-19th century has caused general concern and intensive study. However, long-term changes in the marginal seas, including the seas east of China, are not well understood because long-term observations are sparse and, even when they exist, they are over limited areas. Preliminary results on the long-term variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in summer and winter in the seas east of China during the period of 1957-2001 are reported using the Ocean Science Database of Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the coastal hydrological station in situ and satellite data. The results show well-defined warming trends in the study area. However warming and cooling trends vary from decade to decade, with steady and rapid warming trends after the 1980s and complicated spatial patterns. The distribution of SST variation is intricate and more blurred in the areas far away from the Kuroshio system. Both historical and satellite data sets show significant warming trends after 1985. The warming trends are larger and spread to wider areas in winter than in summer, which means decrease in the seasonal cycle of SST probably linked with recently observed increase of the tropical zooplankton species in the region. Spatial structures of the SST trends are roughly consistent with the circulation pattern especially in winter when the meridional SST gradients are larger, suggesting that a horizontal advection may play an important role in the long-term SST variability in winter.

Analysis of Changes in Precipitation and Temperature over the Past 60 Years in East China

Based on the mean monthly temperature and precipitation data of East China from 1951 to 2006,we conducted the analysis.The results showed that the mean annual temperature tended to increase in the past 56 years while the variation trend of monthly average temperature was different from the annual one.The obvious increase in temperature happened in early spring and from late autumn to winter.The decrease in temperature happened in summer(August).The precipitation change was not as remarkable as the change in temperature.On the whole,the phase of precipitation change was slightly ahead of temperature change.Continuous wavelet transformation was used to analyze the time-frequency changes of precipitation and temperature in East China and the periodical vibration at different times was obtained.

Climatic characteristics of high temperature in East China during 1961-2005

Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days（HTDs）and the mean daily maximum temperature（MDMT）during annual and monthly HTDs in East China were studied.The results show that the mean annual HTDs were 15.1 and the MDMT during annual HTDs was 36.3℃in the past 45 years.Both the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs were negative anomaly in the1980s and positive anomaly in the other periods of time,oscillating with a cycle of about 12-15 years.The mean annual HTDs were more in the southern part,but less in the northern part of East China.The MDMT during annual HTDs was higher in Zhejiang,Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the central and western parts of East China.The high temperature process（HTP） was more in the southwestern part,but less in northeastern part of East China.Both the HTDs and the numbers of HTP were at most in July,and the MDMT during monthly HTDs was also the highest in July.In the first 5 years of the 21st century,the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs increased at most of the stations,both the mean monthly HTDs and the MDMT during monthly HTDs were positive anomalies from April to October,the number of each type of HTP generally was at most and the MDMT in each type of HTP was also the highest.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Front on Stratus-Sea Fog over the Yellow and East China Seas-A Case Study with Implications for Climatology

A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observations and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Front （SSTF） on the transition of stratus into sea fog. Southerly winds of a synoptic high-pressure circulation transport water vapor to the Yellow Sea, creating conditions favorable for sea fog/stratus formation. The subsidence from the high-pressure contributes to the temperature inversion at the top of the stratus. The SSTF forces a secondary circulation within the ABL （Atmospheric Boundary Layer）, the sinking branch of which on the cold flank of SSTF helps lower the stratus layer fiLrther to reach the sea surface. The cooling effect over the cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence. The secondary circulation becomes weak and the fog patches are shrtmk heavily with the smoothed SSTE A conceptual model is proposed for the transition of stratus into sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas. Finally, the analyses suggest that sea fog frequency will probably decrease due to the weakened SSTF and the reduced subsidence of secondary circulation under global wanning.

Holocene Temperature Records from the East China Sea Mud Area Southwest of the Cheju Island Reconstructed by theU_(37)~K~' and TEX_(86) Paleothermometers

As an important marginal sea under the influences of both the Changjiang River and the Kuroshio, the East China Sea （ECS） environment is sensitive to both continental and oceanic forcing. Paleoenvironmental records are essential for understanding the long-term environmental evolution of the ECS and adjacent areas. However, paleo-temperature records from the ECS shelf are currently very limited. In this study, the U^K_37 and TEX86 paleothermometers were used to reconstruct surface and subsurface temperature changes of the mud area southwest of the Cheju Island （Site F10B） in the ECS during the Holocene. The results indicate that temperature changes of F 10B during the early Holocene （11.6-6.2 kyr） are associated with global climate change. During the period of 6.2-2.5 kyr, the similar variability trends of smoothing average of AT （the difference between surface and subsurface temperature） of Site F10B and the strength of the Kuroshio suggest that the Kuroshio influence on the site started around 6.2kyr when the Kuroshio entered the Yellow Sea and continued to 2.5 kyr. During the late Holocene （2.5-1.45 kyr）, apparent decreases of U^K_37 sea surface temperature （SST） and AT imply that the direct influence of the Kuroshio was reduced while cold eddy induced by the Kuroshio gradually controlled hydrological conditions of this region around 2.5 kyr.

A Statistical Scheme for the Seasonal Forecasting of North China's Surface Air Temperature during Winter

This paper presents a statistical scheme for the seasonal forecasting of North China's surface air temperature (NCSAT) during winter. Firstly, a prediction model for an decrease or increase of winter NCSAT is established, whose predictors are available for no later than the previous September, as this is the most favorable month for seasonal forecasting up to two months ahead.The predicted NCSAT is then derived as the sum of the predicted increment of NCSAT and the previous NCSAT. The scheme successfully predicts the interannual and the decadal variability of NCSAT. Additionally, the advantages of the prediction scheme are discussed.

Interdecadal Variations of Winter Temperatures in East China During the Past 100 Years and Related Atmospheric Circulation

The winter temperature changes in East China during the past 100 years are investigated by using the Twentieth Century Version 2(20th-v2)Reanalysis.Four typical warm(P1,1911–30;P4,1991–2010)and cold(P2,1938–57;P3,1961–80)periods are identified for the East China winter temperature index.Comparison of160-station observational data,NCAR sea level pressure(SLP)data,and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis shows that the20th-v2 Reanalysis can successfully depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4,which is part of the global warming phenomenon.The cooling from P1 to P2is a regional phenomenon under global warming.However,both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation(AO),while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)from negative to positive.Original sources of the interdecadal shifts of the AO and winter temperature in East China require further research.

Climatic characteristics of summer high temperature and assessment methods in the large cities of North China

Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created. The climatic characteristics of adverse high temperature weather in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and Taiyuan are analyzed respectively. The major features of the East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are discussed. The outcomes indicate that the influence of both East Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High on these weather events varies, by a larger margin, from one city to another over North China and they are also closely related to the relative humidity. It is found that the behaviours of East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are the major important systems that give rise to the summer high temperature weather over the region. Based on these findings, the 5-day, 10-day and monthly assessment models for such high impact events have been developed. The assessment outcomes prove to be useful in assessing severe high-temperature events in major cities of North China.

Major Mid-Late Holocene Cooling in the East China Sea Revealed by an Alkenone Sea Surface Temperature Record

Although the mid-late Holocene cold and dry event about 4000years ago （the 4ka event） has been observed almost globally, it was most prominent in terrestrial climate proxies from the lower latitudes. Here we evaluate the oceanic response to this event in terms of a Holocene sea surface temperature （SST） record reconstructed using the U^7 index for Core B3 on the continen- tal shelf of the East China Sea. The record reveals a large temperature drop of about 5~C from the mid-Holocene （24.7~C at 5.6ka） to the 4ka event （19.2~C at 3.8ka）. This mid-late Holocene cooling period in Core B3 correlated with （i） decreases in the East Asia summer monsoon intensity and （ii） the transition period with increased E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation activities in the Equatorial Pa- cific. Our SST record provides oceanic evidence for a more global nature of the mid-late Holocene climate change, which was most likely caused by a southward migration of the Intertropical Converge Zone in response to the decreasing summer solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the large SST drop around Core B3 indicates that the mid-late Holocene cooling was regionally amplified by the initiation/strengthening of eddy circulation/cold front which caused upwelling and resulted in additional SST de- crease. Upwelling during the mid-late Holocene also enhanced with surface productivity in the East China Sea as reflected by higher alkenone content around Core B3.

Reconstruction of Sub-Decadal Winter Half-Year Temperature during 1651-2010 for the North China Plain Using Records of Frost Date

We extracted 374 pieces of records of frost date from historical documents. Using these records, we reconstructed winter half-year (October to next April) temperature series, with a resolution of 5-year, for the North China Plain during 1651-2010. The results show that the temperature changes in the North China Plain were divided into four phases. With the reference period of 1951-1980, two cold phases, 1651-1700 and 1781-1900, have cold anomaly of 0.83°C and 0.60°C respectively. However, between the two cold phases, 1701-1780 was a relative warm phase with the cold anomaly of 0.36°C referring to the mean of 1951-1980. After the 1900, the climate came into a warm phase. The mean temperature of 1901-2010 was 0.11°C higher than the mean of 1951-1980. During 1651-2010, the 1996-2000 is the warmest 5-year with the warm anomaly of 1.25°C than that of the reference period of 1951-1980.

Analysis of the high and low temperature centers and their relation with circulations in the East China Sea

Three warm currents, the Kuroshio, its shelf intrusion branch in the northeast of Taiwan and the Taiwan Warm Current （hereafter TWC）, dominate the circulation pattern in the East China Sea （hereafter ECS）. Their origination, routes and variation in winter and summer are studied. Their relationship with four major high and low temperature centers is analyzed. Differing from the previous opinion, we suggest that the four major centers are generated to a great extent by the interaction of the currents in the ECS. In summer, a cold water belt in the northeast of Taiwan is preserved from winter between the Kuroshio and the TWC. The shelf intrusion branch of the Kuroshio separates the water belt, and two low temperature centers generate in the northeast of Taiwan. In the southern ECS, the TWC transports more heat flux northward to form a warm pool. But it is separated in the lower layer by the cold water driven by the intrusion branch of the Kuroshio. So the TWC and the intrusion branch of the Kuroshio play a dominating role to generate the high temperature center. The interaction among the eastward TWC, the northward Tsushima Warm Current （hereafter TSWC） and the southward Su Bei Coastal Flow （hereafter SBCF） generates the low temperature center in the northern ECS. In winter, the strengthening of the shelf intrusion branch of the Kuroshio obscures the two low temperature centers in the northeast of Taiwan. For the weakening of the TWC, the high temperature center in the southern ECS vanishes, and the low temperature center in the northern ECS shifts to south.

Summer Extreme Temperatures over East China during 1984-2004 Simulated by LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model CREM

The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 19844004 using a regional climate model named CREM （the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model）, which was developed by LASG/IAP. The results show that the main features of the extreme summer temperatures over East China are reproduced well by CREM, and the skill for the minimum temperature is higher than that for the maximum tem- perature, especially along the Yangtze-Huai River Valley （YHV）. The simulated extreme temperatures are lower than those of observation, especially for the maximum temperature. The bias of extreme temperatures is consistent with the cold bias of the climatological mean summer surface air temperature. The skill of the model in simulating the interannual variability of extreme temperatures increases from north to south. The simulated interannual variation of the minimum temperature is more reasonable than the maximum temperature. The underestimation of net solar radiation at the surface leads to a cold bias of the climatological mean temperature. Furthermore, the model underestimates the light and moderate rain, while overestimates heavy rain. It causes the simulated minimum temperature more reasonable than the maximum temperature.

Submonthly timescale oscillation characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon and its effect on the temperature of southwest China in 2010

Using NCEP/NCAR R2 reanalysis daily data and daily meteorologicalobservational data of southwest China in 2010, this paper studied the submonthlytimescale oscillation characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and itseffect on the temperature of southwest China in 2010 by bandpass filtering, wavelettransformation, composite analysis and correlation analysis. The main conclusions areas follows: The EAWM in 2010 was dominated by low-frequency oscillations of about 7-,12-, and 30-day periods. There existed obviously negative correlation between theEAWM and the winter temperature in southwest China on submonthly, quasi-weeklyand quasi-biweekly timescales, and negative correlation was more obvious on thequasi-biweekly than the quasi-weekly timescale. There was significant difference in thedistribution of high, middle and low layer of the troposphere when the EAWM was onthe submonthly, quasi-one-week and quasi-two-week timescales in the positive andnegative phase. In the positive EAWM phase, the upper-level subtropical westerly jet isstronger and the East Asia trough is deeper, thus it is favorable for the dominance ofmore powerful north wind and lower temperature in southwest China. On the contrary,in the negative EAWM phase, the upper-level subtropical westerly jet is weaker and theEast Asia trough is shallower, thus unfavorable for the north wind and lowertemperature in southwest China.

Analysis on the Climatic Characteristics of High and Low Temperature in the East of Hexi Corridor in Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to provide the certain theory basis for the accurate forecast and early warning of high and low temperature in the east of Hexi Corridor.[Method] Based on the high(the daily highest temperature ≥35 ℃) and low(the daily lowest temperature ≤-20 ℃) temperature data in five observatories in the east of Hexi Corridor during 1960-2009,the temporal and spatial distribution,intensity,continuity and circulation situation of high and low temperature were analyzed in detail by using the statistical method.[Result] The high temperature weather in the east of Hexi Corridor mainly happened in the edge of northeast desert,and the low temperature mainly happened in the mountain zone where the altitude was higher and the edge of north desert.As the climate became warm,the high temperature days showed the weak increase trend,and the intensity strengthened.The low temperature days showed the obvious decrease trend,and the intensity weakened.The high temperature weather mainly occurred in June,August,and the low temperature mainly occurred in January,February,December.The high and low temperature weather had the durative characteristic.The strong high and low temperature mainly occurred in the durative time of high and low temperature.The high temperature weather appeared in the zone where was controlled and affected by the subtropical high.The low temperature weather appeared in the zone where the strong cold air accumulated and invaded.[Conclusion] The research had the extremely important significance on servicing for the agriculture,preventing and reducing the natural disasters,promoting the local economic development.

Meso-Cenozoic lithospheric thermal structure in the Bohai Bay Basin,eastern North China Craton

The Bohai Bay Basin is a region where part of the North China Craton has been thinned and destroyed. It has experienced two periods of crustal thinning that occurred during the Cretaceous and Paleogene, but investigations of its Mesozoic and Cenozoic lithospheric thermal structure are limited. Therefore, in this study,the distributions of mantle heat flow, crustal heat flow, and Moho temperatures during the Meso-Cenozoic are calculated based on analyses of the thermal history of the Bohai Bay Basin. The results indicate that the ratio of mantle heat flow to surface heat flow peaked during the late stages of the early Cretaceous and during the middle to late Paleogene. The corresponding mantle heat flow was more than 65% of the surface heat flow. Moho temperatures reached three peaks: 900-1100℃ in the late stages of the early Cretaceous;820-900℃ in the middle to late Paleogene; and(in the Linqing Depression, Cangxian Uplift, and Jizhong Depression) 770-810℃ during the early Neogene. These results reveal that the Bohai Bay Basin experienced significant geological change during the Cretaceous, including the transformation of lithospheric thermal structure from "cold mantle and hot crust" before the Cretaceous to "hot mantle and cold crust" after the Cretaceous. The results also indicate that the basin experienced two large-scale rifting events.Therefore, this work may provide the thermal parameters for further investigations of the geodynamic evolution of eastern China.

Impacts of Polar Vortex,NPO,and SST Configurations on Unusually Cool Summers in Northeast China.Part I:Analysis and Diagnosis

This study unveils the evolution of two major early signals in the North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system that heralded abnormal high-pressure blockings and cold-vortex activities across Northeast China, based on an analysis of the configurations of major modes including the polar vortex, the North Pacific Oscillation （NPO）, and SST in the preceding winter and spring and atmospheric low-frequency disturbances in Northeast China. We analyzed these aspects to understand the atmosphere ocean physical coupling processes characterized by the two early signals, and here we explain the possible mechanisms through which dipole circulation anomalies affect the summer low-temperature processes in Northeast China. We further analyzed the interdecadal variation background and associated physical processes of the two early signals.

Warming trend in northern East China Sea in recent four decades

Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea （ECS） to the global warming trend, however, is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper, hydrographic observation data of 1957-1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer, the average SST is about 0.46℃ higher during the period of 1977-1996 than that of 1957-1976, and the Taiwan Warm Current Water （TWCW） was strengthened. In winter, despite of the cooling effect in the coastal areas adjacent to the Changjiang （Yangtze） River Estuary （CRE）, the average SST increase was about 0.53℃ during the same period. The causes of this SST warming up in summer are different from in winter. The warming trend and intensification of the TWCW in summer were primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Kuroshio transport, while the warming in winter was mainly induced by the variability of the climate system.

Sea surface temperature variations in the southwestern South China Sea over the past 160 ka

Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the southwestern South China Sea have been reconstructed for the past 160 ka using the U37^k paleothermometer from the core MD01 - 2392. The temperature differences between glacial times （ MISs 6 and 2） and interglacial times （ MISs 5.5 and 1） are 2.2 ～ 2.5 ℃. Younger Dryas event during the last deglaciation was documented in both the planktonic foraminiferal δ^18 and SST records. After MIS 5.5, SSTs displayed a progressive cooling from 28.6 to 24.5 ℃ culminating at the LGM. During this gradual cooling period, warm events such as MISs 5.3, 5.1 and 3 were also clearly documented. By comparison of SST between the study core and Core 17954, a pattern of low or no meridional SST gradients during the interglacial periods and high meridional SST gradients during the glacial periods was exhibited. This pattern indicates the much stronger East Asian winter monsoon at the glacial than at the interglacial periods. Spectral analysis gives two prominent cycles：41 and 23 ka, with the former more pronounced, suggesting that SSTs in the southern SCS varied in concert with high-latitude processes through the connection of East Asian winter monsoon.

Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia:Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.