Spatio-Temporal Trend and Geographic Disparity of Infertility Prevalence in Burkina Faso, 2011 to 2020

Background: Infertility affected 10% to 25% of couples globally, and about half of the infertility cases were reported in sub-Saharan Africa. Infertility poses significant social, cultural, and health challenges, particularly for women who often face stigmatization. However, comprehensive and nationally representative data, including prevalence, temporal trends, and risk factors, are lacking, prompting a study in Burkina Faso to address the need for informed policies and programs in infertility care and management. Objectives: This study aims to better understand the spatiotemporal trend of infertility prevalence in Burkina Faso. Methodology: This is a retrospective population-based study of women infertility from healthcare facilities in Burkina Faso, during January 2011 to December 2020. We calculated the prevalence rates of infertility and two disparity measures, and examined the spatiotemporal trend of infertility. Results: Over the 10-year period (2011 to 2020), 143,421 infertility cases were recorded in Burkina Faso healthcare facilities, resulting of a mean prevalence rate of 3.61‰ among childbearing age women and 17.87‰ among women who consulted healthcare facilities for reproductive issues (except contraception). The findings revealed a significant increase of infertility, with the prevalence rate varied from 2.75‰ in 2011 to 4.62‰ in 2020 among childbearing age women and from 13.38‰ in 2011 to 26.28‰ in 2020 among women who consulted healthcare facilities for reproductive issues, corresponding to an estimate annual percentage change of 8.31% and 9.80% respectively. There were significant temporal and geographic variations in the prevalence of infertility. While relative geographic disparity decreased, absolute geographic disparity showed an increasing trend over time. Conclusion: The study highlights an increasing trend of infertility prevalence and significant geographic variation in Burkina Faso, underscoring the urgent necessity for etiologic research on risk factors, psychosocial implications, and economic consequences to inform effective interventions and mitigate the socioeconomic impact of infertility.

Liver cancer incidence and mortality in China: Temporal trends and projections to 2030

Objective: Liver cancer is one of the most common cancers and major cause of cancer deaths in China,which accounts for over 50% of new cases and deaths worldwide.The systematic liver cancer statistics including of projection through 2030 could provide valuable information for prevention and control strategies in China,and experience for other countries.Methods: The burden of liver cancer in China in 2014 was estimated using 339 cancer registries’ data selected from Chinese National Cancer Center(NCC).Incident cases of 22 cancer registries were applied for temporal trends from 2000 to 2014.The burden of liver cancer through 2030 was projected using age-period-cohort model.Results: About 364,800 new cases of liver cancer(268,900 males and 95,900 females) occurred in China,and about 318,800 liver cancer deaths(233,500 males and 85,300 females) in 2014.Western regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates.Incidence and mortality rates decreased by about 2.3% and 2.6% per year during the period of 2000-2014,respectively,and would decrease by more than 44% between 2014 and 2030 in China.The young generation,particularly for those aged under 40 years,showed a faster down trend.Conclusions: Based on the analysis,incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030,but the burden of liver cancer is still serious in China,especially in rural and western areas.Most cases of liver cancer in China can be prevented through vaccination and more prevention efforts should be focused on high risk groups.

Breast cancer incidence and mortality in women in China: temporal trends and projections to 2030

Objective:Breast cancer was the most common cancer and the fifth cause of cancer deaths among women in China in 2015.The evaluation of the long-term incidence and mortality trends and the prediction of the future burden of breast cancer could provide valuable information for developing prevention and control strategies.Methods:The burden of breast cancer in China in 2015 was estimated by using qualified data from 368 cancer registries from the National Central Cancer Registry.Incident cases and deaths in 22 cancer registries were used to assess the time trends from 2000 to 2015.A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the burden of breast cancer to 2030.Results:Approximately 303,600 new cases of breast cancer(205,100 from urban areas and 98,500 from rural areas)and 70,400 breast cancer deaths(45,100 from urban areas and 24,500 from rural areas)occurred in China in 2015.Urban regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates.The most common histological subtype of breast cancer was invasive ductal carcinoma,followed by invasive lobular carcinoma.The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates increased by 3.3%and 1.0%per year during 2000–2015,and were projected to increase by more than 11%until 2030.Changes in risk and demographic factors between 2015 and 2030 in cases are predicted to increase by approximately 13.3%and 22.9%,whereas deaths are predicted to increase by 13.1%and 40.9%,respectively.Conclusions:The incidence and mortality of breast cancer continue to increase in China.There are no signs that this trend will stop by 2030,particularly in rural areas.Effective breast cancer prevention strategies are therefore urgently needed in China.

Assessment of Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends of Precipitation and Its Extremes over Nigeria

This study analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal trends of precipitation and its extremes over Nigeria from 1979-2013 using climate indices, in order to assess climatic extremes in the country. Daily precipitation data used in this study were obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos. The study used climate indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection (ETCCDI) for assessing extreme precipitation. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test were employed in data analysis. Results revealed that precipitation and its extremes varied spatially across Nigeria. Significant negative trends were observed in most of the precipitation indices for the period under study. Furthermore, significant downward trends were observed in the CWD (Consecutive Wet Day) while the CDD (Consecutive Dry Day) showed significant upward trends in all the regions. These spatial and temporal changes indicate that Nigeria’s climate is trending towards a warmer and drier condition, which could be attributed to global warming-induced climate change;which altered historical rainfall patterns thereby leading to extreme events. The findings of this study have provided useful information in understanding the extreme events that are assumed by the general populace to be normal recurrent events in Nigeria. The results of the analysis of yearly and decadal changes in precipitation totals and extreme values for the last 35 years (1979-2013) suggest the likelihood of severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, and water-sensitive economic activities

Prostate cancer temporal and regional trends in Brazil

Objectives:The Brazilian Unified Health System(SistemaÚnico de Saúde−SUS)is the universal public healthcare system of Brazil that maintains a nationwide database of its patients.Our primary objective was to analyze regional and temporal trends,while our secondary goal was to establish correlations between states’health economy status and their prostate cancer(PCa)epidemiology.Methods:We analyzed Brazil’s nationwide data on prostate cancer(PCa)incidence,mortality,and care gathered between 2013 and 2021 by the Information Technology Department of SUS(DATA-SUS),updated monthly using the International Classification of Diseases(ICD-10)code.Results:In the period,273,933 new cases of PCa and 135,336 PCa deaths were reported in men aged 50 years or over in Brazil.The median annual PCa-specific incidence rate(PCSIR)ranged from 14.7 in the Southeast to 6.9 in the North region and the median annual PCa-specific mortality rate(PCSMR)ranged from 7.7 in the Northeast to 6.0 in the South region(per 10,000 men>50).The median annual mortality to incidence ratio(MIR)was highest in the North(0.88)and lowest in the Southeast region(0.44).There were significant regional differences in PCa treatment rates(per new cases);the Midwest region had the highest median annual surgery rate(0.63)while the North region had the highest median annual systemic therapy rate(0.75)and the lowest radiation therapy rate(0.06).Temporal analysis of the data showed significant change in annual rate trends after the year 2018 for PCSIR(coefficient[β]=+3.66,p<0.001),any treatment(β=−0.06,p=0.016),surgery([SR]β=+0.05,p=0.017)radiation therapy([RTR]β=−0.06,p=0.005)and systemic therapy([STR]β=−0.10,p=0.002).After the 2020 pandemic,annual PCSIR decreased(β=−2.15,p=0.002)but annual PCSMR,MIR,and treatment rates remained stable.Correlation studies showed that the PCSIR was strongly negatively correlated with STR(p<0.001)and positively correlated with RTR(p=0.004).MIR was positively correlated with STR(p<0.001)and negatively correlated with the number of robotic surgical systems per million population(p=0.003).Conclusion:Our data shows that PCa care is dependent on the region and is likely influenced by access to treatment options.Furthermore,changes after the year 2018 underscore the influence of international guidelines on Brazilian clinicians’decision-making especially concerning population screening which in turn affected incidence and treatment rates.Limitation of our study includes limited patientrelated information and data on private practices as well as an unknown impact of traveling patients.

Analysis of the spatiotemporal trends and influencing factors of Hyphantria cunea in China

In recent years,the situation of the Hyphantria cunea(Drury)(Lepidoptera:Erebidae),infestation in China has been serious and has a tendency to continue to spread.A comprehensive analysis was carried out to examine the spa-tial distribution trends and influencing factors of H.cunea.This analysis involved integrating administrative division and boundary data,distribution data of H.cunea,and envi-ronmental variables for 2021.GeoDetector and gravity analysis techniques were employed for data processing and interpretation.The results show that H.cunea exhibited high aggregation patterns in 2021 and 2022 concentrated mainly in eastern China.During these years,the focal point of the infestation was in Shandong Province with a spread towards the northeast.Conditions such as high vegetation density in eastern China provided favorable situations for growth and development of H.cunea.In China,the spatial distribution of the moth is primarily influenced by two critical factors:precipitation during the driest month and elevation.These play a pivotal role in determining the spread of the species.Based on these results,suggestions are provided for a mul-tifaceted approach to prevention and control of H.cunea infestation.

Lung cancer incidence and mortality in China:Updated statistics and an overview of temporal trends from 2000 to 2016

Background:Updated systematic statistics on lung cancer are the underpinning cornerstones for formulating prevention and control strategies for the disease.The incidence and mortality data of lung cancer in China in 2016 were estimated,and also used to analyze the temporal trends of lung cancer from 2000 up to 2016 in this study.Methods:The burden of lung cancer in China in 2016 was estimated using data from 487 cancer registries,which were abstracted from the database of the National Cancer Center of China(NCC).The temporal trends were estimated with the data of 2000 to 2016 from 22 cancer registries.Results:About 828,100 new lung cancer cases and 657,000 lung cancer deaths were estimated in China in 2016.The crude incidence and mortality rates in the eastern region were the highest nationwide.The incidence and mortality of lung cancer increased with age,and most of the new cases occurred in the age group of over 60 years.The age-standardized incidence increased by about 0.8%per year during 2000 to 2016,especially in woman,whose annual increase rate reached 2.1%.The age-standardized mortality rate decreased by about 0.6%per year,with a decrease of 1.3%per year in urban areas and an increase of 2.3%per year in rural areas.The numbers of new cases and deaths increased by 162.6%and 123.6%,respectively,during 2000 to 2016,which can be explained mainly by the change of the age structure.Conclusions:The burden of lung cancer is serious in China,and increased especially rapidly for women in rural areas.The disease is expected to threaten the lives of more people in the future due to factors such as aging and population growth.Lung cancer prevention and control strategies and resources should be leveraged toward women and rural areas in the future.

Temporal Trends of Maternal Mortality Due to Obstetric Hemorrhage in Chinese Mainland: Evidence from the Population-Based Surveillance Data Between 2000 and 2019

Objective:To analyze the temporal trends of maternal mortality ratio(MMR)due to obstetric hemorrhage and its specific causes in Chinese mainland from 2000 to 2019,to identify whether the rate of change has accelerated or slowed down during this period,and to find the prior cause of obstetric hemorrhage that needs to be intervened in the future.Methods:Individual information on maternal deaths and total number of live births from 336 surveillance sites across 31 provinces in Chinese mainland was collected from the National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System between 2000 and 2019.Maternal death was defined according to the World Health Organization’s criterion.The final underlying cause of death was confirmed by the national review and was coded according to International Classification of Diseases-10.Linear trends for changes in characteristics of maternal deaths were assessed using linear or logistic models with the year treated as a continuous variable.The MMR and 95%confidence intervals(CI)for regions or causes were estimated by Poisson’s distribution.Joinpoint regression was used to assess the accurate temporal patterns.Results:The national MMR due to obstetric hemorrhage was 18.4 per 100,000 live births(95%CI:15.0–22.2)in 2000.It peaked in 2001(22.1 per 100,000 live births,95%CI:18.3–26.4)and was lowest in 2019(1.6 per 100,000 live births,95%CI:1.0–2.3).For specific regions,the MMR due to obstetric hemorrhage in rural areas and western regions both experienced a slight rise,followed by a rapid decline,and then a slow decline.For specific causes,no change point was found in joinpoint analysis of the national MMR caused by placenta previa,postpartum uterine atony,and retained placenta(the annual percent change was12.0%,10.5%,and21.0%,respectively).The MMR caused by postpartum hemorrhages(PPH)significantly declined by 8.0%(95%CI:1.9–13.6)per year from 2000 to 2007.The annual percent change of MMR caused by PPH accelerated further to25.0%between 2007 and 2011,and then decreased to7.8%between 2011 and 2019.The proportion of maternal deaths due to antepartum hemorrhages increased from 7.6%(8/105)in 2000 to 14.3%(4/28)in 2019.The changes in the proportion of causes were different for maternal deaths due to PPH.The proportion of postpartum uterine atony increased from 39.0%(41/105)in 2000 to 60.7%(17/28)in 2019,and the proportion of uterine rupture also increased from 12.3%(13/105)in 2000 to 14.3%(4/28)in 2019.However,the proportion of retained placenta decreased from 37.1%(39/105)in 2000 to 7.1%(2/28)in 2019.Conclusion:Over the last 20 years,the intervention practice in China has proved that targeted interventions are beneficial in reducing the MMR due to obstetric hemorrhage.However,the MMR has reached a plateau and is likely to increase for some specific causes such as uterine rupture.China needs to develop more effective interventions to reduce maternal deaths due to obstetric hemorrhage,especially for postpartum uterine atony and uterine rupture.

Temporal trends of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances(PFAS)in the influent of two of the largest wastewater treatment plants in Australia

Per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances(PFAS)are found ubiquitously in wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs)due to their multiple sources in industry and consumer products.In Australia,limited spatial data are available on PFAS levels inWWTPs influent,while no temporal data have been reported.The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence and temporal trend of PFAS in the influent of two large WWTPs in Australia(WWTP A and B)over a four-year period.Daily influent samples were collected over one week at different seasons from 2014 to 2017.Eleven perfluoroalkyl acids(PFAA)(i.e.seven perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids(PFCAs)and four perfluoroalkyl sulfonic acids(PFSA))were detected with mean S11PFAA concentrations of 57±3.3e94±17 ng/L at WWTP A,and 31±6.1e142±73 ng/L at WWTP B.The highest mean concentrations were observed for perfluorohexanoate(PFHxA)(20±2 ng/L)in WWTP A,and perfluorooctane sulfonate(PFOS)(17±13 ng/L)in WWTP B.The precursor 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonate was detected over five sampling periods from Aug 2016 to Oct 2017,with mean concentrations of 37±18e138±51 ng/L for WWTP A and 8.8±4.5e29±5.1 ng/L for WWTP B.Higher concentration of 6:2 FTS(1.8e11 folds)than those of PFOA and PFOS in WWTP A indicate a likely substitution of C8 PFAA by fluorotelomer-based PFAS in this catchment.Temporal trends(annual and seasonal)in per-capita mass load were observed for some PFAA,increasing for PFPeA,PFHxA,PFHpA,PFNA,and PFHxS,while decreasing for PFBS and PFOS in either WWTPs.Notably,elevated levels of PFOS in October 2017 were observed at both WWTPs with the highest per capita mass load of up to 67 mg/day/inhabitant.For some PFAS release trends,longer sampling periods would be required to achieve acceptable statistical power.

Temporal trend of mortality from major cancers in Xuanwei, China

Although a number of studies have examined the etiology of lung cancer in Xuanwei County, China, other types of cancer in this county have not been reported systematically. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend of eight major cancers in Xuanwei County using data from three mortality surveys （1973-1975, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005）. The Chinese population in 1990 was used as a standard population to calculate age- standardized mortality rates. Cancers of lung, liver, breast, brain, esophagus, leukemia, rectum, and stomach were identified as the leading cancers in this county in terms of mortality rate. During the three time periods, lung cancer remained as the most common type of cancer. The mortality rates for all other types of cancer were lower than those of the national average, but an increasing trend was observed for all the cancers, particularly from 1990-1992 to 2004-2005. The temporal trend could be party explained by changes in risk factors, but it also may be due to the improvement in cancer diagnosis and screening. Further epidemiological studies are warranted to systematically examine the underlying reasons for the temporal trend of the major cancers in Xuanwei County.

Changes on Stroke Burden Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in China

Objective In recent decades,China has implemented a series of policies to address air pollution.We aimed to assess the health effects of these policies on stroke burden attributable to ambient fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)).Methods Joinpoint regression was applied to explore the temporal tendency of stroke burden based on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.Results The age-standardized rates of disability-adjusted life year(DALY)for stroke attributable to ambient PM2.5 in China,increased dramatically during 1990-2012,subsequently decreased at an annual percentage change(APC)of-1.98[95% confidence interval(CI):-2.26,-1.71]during 2012-2019.For ischemic stroke(IS),the age-standardized DALY rates doubled from 1990 to 2014,and decreased at an APC of-0.83(95%CI:-1.33,-0.33)during 2014-2019.Intracerebral hemorrhage(ICH)showed a substantial increase in age-standardized DALY rates from 1990 to 2003,followed by declining trends,with APCs of-1.46(95%CI:-2.74,-0.16)during 2003-2007 and-3.33(95%CI:-3.61,-3.06)during 2011-2019,respectively.Conversely,the age-standardized DALY rates for subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)generally declined during 1990-2019.Conclusion Our results clarified the dynamic changes of the ambient PM_(2.5)-attributable stroke burden in China during 1990-2019,highlighting the health effects of air quality improvement policies.

Amend:An integrated platform of retracted papers and concerned papers

Purpose:The notable increase in retraction papers has attracted considerable attention from diverse stakeholders.Various sources are now offering information related to research integrity,including concerns voiced on social media,disclosed lists of paper mills,and retraction notices accessible through journal websites.However,despite the availability of such resources,there remains a lack of a unified platform to consolidate this information,thereby hindering efficient searching and cross-referencing.Thus,it is imperative to develop a comprehensive platform for retracted papers and related concerns.This article aims to introduce“Amend,”a platform designed to integrate information on research integrity from diverse sources.Design/methodology/approach:The Amend platform consolidates concerns and lists of problematic articles sourced from social media platforms(e.g.,PubPeer,For Better Science),retraction notices from journal websites,and citation databases(e.g.,Web of Science,CrossRef).Moreover,Amend includes investigation and punishment announcements released by administrative agencies(e.g.,NSFC,MOE,MOST,CAS).Each related paper is marked and can be traced back to its information source via a provided link.Furthermore,the Amend database incorporates various attributes of retracted articles,including citation topics,funding details,open access status,and more.The reasons for retraction are identified and classified as either academic misconduct or honest errors,with detailed subcategories provided for further clarity.Findings:Within the Amend platform,a total of 32,515 retracted papers indexed in SCI,SSCI,and ESCI between 1980 and 2023 were identified.Of these,26,620(81.87%)were associated with academic misconduct.The retraction rate stands at 6.64 per 10,000 articles.Notably,the retraction rate for non-gold open access articles significantly differs from that for gold open access articles,with this disparity progressively widening over the years.Furthermore,the reasons for retractions have shifted from traditional individual behaviors like falsification,fabrication,plagiarism,and duplication to more organized large-scale fraudulent practices,including Paper Mills,Fake Peer-review,and Artificial Intelligence Generated Content(AIGC).Research limitations:The Amend platform may not fully capture all retracted and concerning papers,thereby impacting its comprehensiveness.Additionally,inaccuracies in retraction notices may lead to errors in tagged reasons.Practical implications:Amend provides an integrated platform for stakeholders to enhance monitoring,analysis,and research on academic misconduct issues.Ultimately,the Amend database can contribute to upholding scientific integrity.Originality/value:This study introduces a globally integrated platform for retracted and concerning papers,along with a preliminary analysis of the evolutionary trends in retracted papers.

Changing trends of disease burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions:Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study

Objective:China is one of the countries with the heaviest burden of gastric cancer(GC)in the world.Understanding the epidemiological trends and patterns of GC in China can contribute to formulating effective prevention strategies.Methods:The data on incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)of GC in China from1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study(2019).The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends of disease burden of GC,and the package Nordpred in the R program was used to perform an age-period-cohort analysis to predict the numbers and rates of incidence and mortality in the next 25 years.Results:The number of incident cases of GC increased from 317.34 thousand in 1990 to 612.82 thousand in2019,while the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of GC decreased from 37.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 30.64 per 100,000 in 2019,with an EAPC of-0.41[95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.77,-0.06].Pronounced temporal trends in mortality and DALYs of GC were observed.In the next 25 years,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths are expected to increase to 738.79 thousand and 454.80 thousand,respectively,while the rates of incidence and deaths should steadily decrease.The deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking were different for males and females.Conclusions:In China,despite the fact that the rates of GC have decreased during the past three decades,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths increased,and will continue to increase in the next 25 years.Additional strategies are needed to reduce the burden of GC,such as screening and early detection,novel treatments,and the prevention of risk factors.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Sensitivity Coefficients to Climate Factors in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,China

Climate change will have important implications in water shore regions,such as Huang-Huai-Hai（3H） plain,where expected warmer and drier conditions might augment crop water demand.Sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation in reference evapotranspiration（ET 0）.In this study,the 51-yr ET 0 during winter wheat and summer maize growing season were calculated from a data set of daily climate variables in 40 meteorological stations.Sensitivity maps for key climate variables were estimated according to Kriging method and the spatial pattern of sensitivity coefficients for these key variables was plotted.In addition,the slopes of the linear regression lines for sensitivity coefficients were obtained.Results showed that ET 0 during winter wheat growing season accounted for the largest proportion of annual ET 0,due to its long phenological days,while ET 0 was detected to decrease significantly with the magnitude of 0.5 mm yr-1in summer maize growing season.Solar radiation is considered to be the most sensitive and primarily controlling variable for negative trend in ET 0 for summer maize season,and higher sensitive coefficient value of ET 0 to solar radiation and temperature were detected in east part and southwest part of 3H plain respectively.Relative humidity was demonstrated as the most sensitive factor for ET 0 in winter wheat growing season and declining relativity humidity also primarily controlled a negative trend in ET 0,furthermore the sensitivity coefficient to relative humidity increased from west to southeast.The eight sensitivity centrals were all found located in Shandong Province.These ET 0 along with its sensitivity maps under winter wheat-summer maize rotation system can be applied to predict the agricultural water demand and will assist water resources planning and management for this region.

Comparing Land Degradation and Regeneration Trends in China Drylands

The aim of this paper is to offer a statistically sound method to make a precise account of the speed of land degradation and regeneration processes.Most common analyses of land degradation focus instead on the extent of degraded areas,rather than on the intensity of degradation processes.The study was implemented for the Potential Extent of Desertification in China(PEDC),composed by arid,semi-arid,and dry sub-humid regions and refers to the period 2002 to 2012.The metrics were standard partial regression coefficients from stepwise regressions,fitted using Net Primary Productivity as the dependent variable,and year number and aridity as predictors.The results indicate that:①the extension of degrading lands(292896 km 2 or 9.12%of PEDC)overcomes the area that is recovering(194560 km 2 or 6.06%of PEDC);and②the intensity of degrading trends is lower than that of increasing trends in three land cover types(grassland,desert,and crops)and in two aridity levels(semi-arid and dry sub-humid).Such an outcome might pinpoint restoration policies by the Chinese government,and document a possible case of hysteresis.

Physical fitness before and during the COVID-19 pandemic:Results of annual national physical fitness surveillance among 16,647,699 Japanese children and adolescents between 2013 and 2021

Background:Limited nationally representative evidence is available on temporal trends in physical fitness(PF)for children and adolescents during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.The primary aim was to examine the temporal trends in PF for Japanese children and adolescents before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.The secondary aim was to estimate the concurrent trends in body size(measured as body mass and height)and movement behaviors(exercise,screen,and sleep time).Methods:Census PF data for children in Grade 5(aged 10-11 years)and adolescents in Grade 8(aged 13-14 years)were obtained for the years 2013-2021 from the National Survey of Physical Fitness,Athletic Performance,and Exercise Habits in Japan(n=16,647,699).PF and body size were objectively measured,and movement behaviors were self-reported.Using sample-weighted linear regression,temporal trends in mean PF were calculated before the pandemic(2013-2019)and during the pandemic(2019-2021)with adjustments for age,sex,body size,and exercise time.Results:When adjusted for age,sex,body size,and exercise time,there were significant declines in PF during the pandemic,with the largest declines observed in 20-m shuttle run(standardized(Cohen’s)effect size(ES)=-0.109 per annum(p.a.))and sit-ups performance(ES=-0.133p.a.).The magnitude of the declines in 20-m shuttle run and sit-ups performances were 18-and 15-fold larger,respectively,than the improvements seen before the pandemic(2013-2019),after adjusting for age,sex,body size,and exercise time.During the pandemic,both body mass and screen time significantly increased,and exercise time decreased.Conclusion:Declines in 20-m shuttle run and sit-ups performances suggest corresponding declines in population health during the COVID-19pandemic.

Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen

Background:This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022,and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.Methods:Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention(CISDCP).The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends,while the Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model assessed the effects of age,period,and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates.We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive(NNAR)Model,Bayesian Structural Time Series(BSTS)Model,Prophet,Exponential Smoothing(ETS)Model,Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)Model,and Hybrid Model,selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.Results:Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend,with rates higher in men than in women.Higher incidence rates were observed in adults,particularly in the 30-39 age group.Moreover,the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend.Furthermore,in the best-performing NNAR(10,1,6)[12]model,the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023,increasing to 5314 by 2027.

Decreasing Reference Evapotranspiration in a Warming Climate-A Case of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Catchment During 1970-2000

This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970-2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang （Yangtze） River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.

A 50-years record of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethanes and hexachloro-cyclohexanes in lake sediments and penguin droppings on King George Island, Maritime Antarctic

Since the ban on the use of organochlorine pesticides （OCPs） such as dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane （DDT） and hexachlorocyclohexane（HCH） in agriculture, their levels have generally dropped. In a number of cases, however, the levels of these OCPs were found to be unchanging or even increasing after the ban. With the aim to unveil the possible causes of these exceptions, we collected two lake cores from King George Island, West Antarctica, and determined their accumulation flux profiles and temporal trends of these OCPs. In the lake core sediments with glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows an abnormal peak around 1980s in addition to the expected one in 1960s. In the lake core sediments without glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows a gradual decline trend after the peak in 1960s. This striking difference in the DDT flux profiles between the two lake cores is most likely caused by the regional climate warming and the resulted discharge of the DDT stored in the Antarctic ice cap into the lakes in the Antarctic glacier frontier. Furthermore, to investigate the change of OCPs loadings in the Antarctic coastal ecosystem, we reconstructed the HCH and DDT concentration profiles in penguin droppings and observed a gradual increase for the former and a continuous decrease for the latter during the past 50 years. The increase of HCH seems to be due to the regional warming from the early 1970s and the resulted HCH discharge to the coastal ecosystem by glaciers＇ meltwater and the illegal use of HCH in the Southern Hemisphere in the recent decade. The different temporal trends of HCH and DDT accumulation rate in the lake core with glacier meltwater input and the aged penguin droppings can be explained by their different water-soluble property.

Cancer statistics in Chinese older people,2022:current burden,time trends,and comparisons with the US,Japan,and the Republic of Korea

Largely due to population ageing,the cancer burden from older people has been rising,which imposed considerable pressure on current Chinese healthcare system.We provide comprehensive information about cancer burden of Chinese older people based on the most recent data from National Central Cancer Registry of China.The logarithmic linear regression was used to project the current cancer burden in 2022,and Joinpoint regression was used for temporal trend analysis from 2000 to 2017.We also estimated cancer statistics of older people in the US,Japan and the Republic of Korea for comparisons.It is estimated that 2.79 million cases and 1.94 million deaths occur for Chinese older people,representing 55.8%and 68.2%of cases and deaths in all population in 2022.The overall cancer incidence rate gradually increased among older women,while the mortality rates declined for both sexes.Notably,approximately 10.0%of all cases and 17.7%of all deaths are from people aged over 80 years,and cancer incidence and mortality in this age group showed upward trends for women.Lung cancer and digestive cancers are the leading cancer types for Chinese older people.Compared with other countries,China has lower incidence rates but higher mortality rates for older people.The rapidly growing burden of prostate cancer,breast cancer,colorectal cancer,and declines in esophageal cancer,stomach cancer,and liver cancer among older people indicate the cancer pattern in China is being in a transition stage to that in developed countries.Our findings imply that it should be the national health priority to meet the growing demands for cancer diagnosis,treatment and care services from the older people as the rapid population ageing in next few decades.