Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.

Machine Learning-Based Temperature and Wind Forecasts in the Zhangjiakou Competition Zone during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games

Weather forecasting for the Zhangjiakou competition zone of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games is a challenging task due to its complex terrain.Numerical weather prediction models generally perform poorly for cold air pools and winds over complex terrains,due to their low spatiotemporal resolution and limitations in the description of dynamics,thermodynamics,and microphysics in mountainous areas.This study proposes an ensemble-learning model,named ENSL,for surface temperature and wind forecasts at the venues of the Zhangjiakou competition zone,by integrating five individual models—linear regression,random forest,gradient boosting decision tree,support vector machine,and artificial neural network(ANN),with a ridge regression as meta model.The ENSL employs predictors from the high-resolution ECMWF model forecast(ECMWF-HRES) data and topography data,and targets from automatic weather station observations.Four categories of predictors(synoptic-pattern related fields,surface element fields,terrain,and temporal features) are fed into ENSL.The results demonstrate that ENSL achieves better performance and generalization than individual models.The root-mean-square error(RMSE) for the temperature and wind speed predictions is reduced by 48.2% and 28.5%,respectively,relative to ECMWF-HRES.For the gust speed,the performance of ENSL is consistent with ANN(best individual model) in the whole dataset,whereas ENSL outperforms on extreme gust samples(42.7% compared with 38.7% obtained by ECMWF-HRES in terms of RMSE reduction).Sensitivity analysis of predictors in the four categories shows that ENSL fits their feature importance rankings and physical explanations effectively.

Comparison and Analysis of Data at Traffic Meteorological Observation Station during Beijing Winter Olympic Games Period

This paper presents a comparison and analysis method of data at traffic meteorological observation station during Beijing Winter Olympic Games period based on Grubbs criterion. By comparing the data of a set of standard multi-element observation stations with the data of multiple measured traffic stations, the outliers of each element data at each station were analyzed. It could provide data support for the maintenance of Zhangjiakou traffic meteorological observation station and a guarantee for the accuracy of forest service during Beijing Winter Olympic Games period.

Influence of 2022 Winter Olympics on Tourism Development of Zhangjiakou City and the Countermeasures

Mega-event is an important driving force for the development of urban tourism industry. As a co-host city of 2022 Winter Olympics, Zhangjiakou will encounter new opportunities in tourism development. This paper build a dynamic model about the influence of Olympics on urban tourism industry, and put forward specific strategies for the city promoting its tourism development by taking the opportunity of hosting the Winter Olympics.

Inheritance and Innovation:Development of Beijing Shadow Play from the Perspective of Beijing Winter Olympics

This paper is aimed to figure out the dilemma of sustainable development of Beijing shadow play.Through a brand-new perspective of the Winter Olympic Games,this paper not only demonstrates the opportunities and challenges faced by Beijing shadow play in the current era,but also expounds the inheritance and innovation of it to show the value of change and sustainable development.It could be found that these methods are capable of breaking the limitations of time and space,so that this extraordinary art form can go worldwide and be found and loved by more people.It is concluded that more efforts should be put into the field of Beijing shadow play and that Beijing shadow play can be revived by virtue of inheritance and innovation.

北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会遗产特征研究

北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会留下了宝贵而丰富的遗产。基于对北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会遗产规划、创造、维系过程的回顾,归纳出北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会遗产的首创性、杰出性、多样性、可持续性、区域性、挑战性、传承性等7大特征。分析北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会遗产特征,既对北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会遗产重大议题形成更清晰的认识,丰富北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会相关理论,同时也为奥林匹克遗产可持续发展提供一定理论借鉴。

智慧冬奥2022天气预报示范计划的实施与评估

主要介绍了“智慧冬奥2022天气预报示范计划”(简称FDP)的运行与评估结果。此次FDP是在我国首次针对中纬度山区0~10 d冬季天气预报展开的示范计划,国内气象部门内外共22家单位、近40个数值模式或客观预报系统参与了该计划。FDP实现了实时运行所需的多种源数据和多源数据产品的高效传输分发、监控、实时处理、综合集成显示。首次开展了次百米级客观预报、人工智能释用订正预报等新型技术在冬奥复杂山地赛场的实时示范应用,为冬奥气象中心和3个赛区预报团队提供了丰富多样和稳定可靠的高精度客观产品,有力支撑了高标准的冬奥气象服务保障。针对参与FDP产品的系统性检验评估发现,与模式系统原始预报相比,释用后的专项站点预报对平均风、阵风、温度、相对湿度等要素的预报误差明显减小。但是对于冬季复杂山地的降水、能见度预报,客观预报技术还有待进一步改进,而且站点解释应用效果不明显。此次FDP对风、温度、降水、能见度、相对湿度的最优预报检验指标(最小误差值),总体体现了目前国内在中纬度山区冬季天气客观预报的大致水平和现实能力,对于认识复杂山地冬季天气预报存在困难、提升高精度天气预报水平等具有极为重要的价值。

北京2022年冬奥会遗产实现传承路径的多维阐释:基点·过程·趋向

对北京2022年冬奥会遗产实现传承的起点、终点及过程的解析,有利于更好地传承北京2022年冬奥会遗产。运用文献研究法分析后认为:1)北京2022年冬奥会遗产实现传承路径的基点为顺应各类奥运遗产相关文件的引导、鉴纳往届奥运遗产治理经验、汇集北京办奥既有资源、采纳其他学科适宜理论方法;2)北京2022年冬奥会遗产实现传承路径的过程为静态结构(主体、客体、实现方式)与动态过程(申办阶段、筹办阶段、赛后阶段)相互嵌合;3)北京2022年冬奥会遗产实现传承路径的要旨是识别遗产、评估遗产、促进遗产、传承遗产。基于以上认为,对北京2022年冬奥会遗产实现传承路径的阐释,要加强总结与归纳北京2022年冬奥会遗产工作的主要规律,体现北京2022年冬奥会遗产传承的“中国方案”的独特优势与重要价值。

国际体育赛事对口译教学的启示——基于2022年北京冬奥会口译需求

通过分析国内高校口译教学的现状,探讨2022年北京冬奥会的口译需求对口译教学的启示。从课程安排、教学方法和教学内容三方面研究高校口译教学,发现存在课时数少、缺乏口译实训、缺少中国文化输入等问题。高校志愿者是国际体育赛事志愿者的重要来源,为使高校人才更好地服务于国际赛事,基于2022年北京冬奥会的口译需求,提出尽早安排口译课程、模拟口译现场、参加口译实训、增强跨学科教学、积累中国特色词汇等改善口译教学的方案,尝试为口译教学提供新思路。

2022年北京冬奥会张家口赛区潜在鼠疫自然疫源地调查研究

目的分析2022年北京冬奥会张家口赛区(崇礼区)和河北省鼠疫自然疫源地(康保县)2018—2021年鼠疫调查资料,对比两地宿主媒介构成和自然地理景观差异,为崇礼区潜在鼠疫自然疫源地的研究提供科学依据。方法2018—2021年在崇礼区和康保县采用5 m夹线法和样方法捕获鼠类,对捕获鼠类及其媒介蚤类进行分类、鉴定;开展鼠疫病原学检测;使用Excel 2010对调查数据进行整理汇总,应用SPSS 19.0软件对调查数据进行统计学分析。结果在崇礼区,采用5 m夹线法有效布夹42000夹次,捕鼠515只,捕获率为1.23%;样方法调查20个样点,未捕到鼠;获鼠体蚤218只,蚤指数为0.42;在鼠体内均未检出鼠疫菌。在康保县,采用5 m夹线法有效布夹14844夹次,捕鼠304只,捕获率为2.05%;样方法共调查1060 hm^(2),捕鼠231只,平均鼠密度为0.22只/hm^(2);获鼠体蚤821只,蚤指数为1.53;在鼠体内共检出鼠疫菌6株,其中分离自长爪沙鼠3株、黑线仓鼠2株、黑线毛足鼠1株。崇礼区黑线仓鼠平均鼠密度明显低于康保县(Z=-2.309,P<0.05)。结论崇礼区与康保县的鼠种和媒介蚤类构成有明显不同,自然地理景观也存在明显差异,崇礼区发生原发性动物间鼠疫流行的可能性不大。

A Pre-game Evaluation of the Tourism Legacy of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games

The role of tourism in social and economic development and stabilizing the Olympic legacy has been widely discussed.Beijing is the first“Dual-Olympic City”.For the first time,the Beijing Winter Olympics has adopted a model of three competition areas,which has attracted much attention to the study of its tourism legacy.In the legacy plan,the construction of the“Beijing-Zhangjiakou Sports Culture and Tourism Belt”was proposed.The development of ice and snow tourism and the cultivation of the ice and snow tourism market is also reflected in many policy documents and government actions.The scientific planning before the competition laid a good foundation for the sustainable development of its ice and snow tourism heritage.This research combines Olympic legacy research with tourism destination theory,and focuses on ice and snow tourism directly related to the Winter Olympics and the significance of pre-event planning for legacy protection.At the same time,the improvement of the quality of ice and snow tourism destinations is embedded in the pre-Olympic legacy,and opinions and suggestions on how to ensure the stability of the legacy after the games are given.This study uses the literature review method and the second-hand materials survey research method,then through establishing a tourism legacy pre-game evaluation model and the use of geographic information,government reports,policies,publicly released statistics and news reports,etc..It explores the legacy of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics,aiming to lay the foundation for preserving the continuous value of the ice and snow tourism legacy during and after the Olympics.The results indicate that the Beijing Winter Olympics has made relatively complete plans and reliable progress in both tangible and intangible legacy.Complete tourism infrastructure,an optimistic sport and cultural atmosphere,and the improvement of residents’health concept and sports awareness have become boosters for the development of ice and snow tourism in the Beijing-Zhangjiakou region.

中华体育精神的空间传承与创新——从列斐伏尔的空间生产理论看北京2022年冬奥会

中华体育精神是中华民族在长期体育实践中形成和积淀的优秀精神文化,为实现体育强国和中华民族伟大复兴提供价值引领。运用文献资料调研和逻辑分析研究方法,以列斐伏尔的空间生产理论为理论框架,以北京2022年冬奥会为研究对象,从空间实践、空间表征和表征的空间3个维度,分析北京2022年冬奥会空间生产与中华体育精神传承创新的关系。北京2022年冬奥会空间生产既是北京2022年冬奥会空间的物质化、概念化和感性化的过程,又是北京2022年冬奥会空间的生产者和消费者互动、协商的过程。北京2022年冬奥会空间生产与中华体育精神有着密切关系,既是中华体育精神的具体体现、有效传播和创新发展,又助力实现体育强国和中华民族伟大复兴。

互动仪式链视角下大型体育赛事的短视频传播研究——以抖音平台北京2022年冬奥会为例

新媒体时代,传统的体育赛事传播方式发生了巨大转变,越发以即时性、互动性为特点,并赋予了用户发言评论的权利,使其成为实时体育传播的参与者。其中,短视频逐步成为获取体育内容、传播赛事信息的关键媒介,吸引着越来越多的用户参与到体育赛事短视频传播中来,使得以创造者和用户为核心传播的生态圈正在形成。该文运用文献研读、案例分析等研究方法,以互动仪式链理论为研究视角,并以抖音平台中北京2022年冬奥会期间不同类型账号发布主体为例,对大型体育赛事短视频的传播现状、传播特征、传播困境等进行了深入阐释与分析,进而从内容生产、传播渠道、互动反馈3个方面,就北京冬奥会短视频中互动仪式链的实践与构建进行了分析与讨论,提出未来大型体育赛事的短视频传播必须在提高内容质量、增加用户黏性、拓宽传播渠道等方面下足功夫的建议。

2022年北京冬奥会国家雪车雪橇中心遮阳棚结构体系设计研究

国家雪车雪橇中心是中国首次设计建造的雪车雪橇项目场馆,是2022年北京冬奥会设计难度最高、施工难度最大的项目之一,是世界上首个设置于山体南坡的雪车雪橇场馆。国家雪车雪橇中心由遮阳棚、赛道、基础三部分组成,遮阳棚为整个赛道的遮阳系统,也是一个主要设计亮点。为解决山体南坡太阳辐射的问题,实现建筑外观、功能与结构的有机统一,首次采用了新型大悬挑钢木组合遮阳棚结构。对该新型结构体系的选型、构造、受力机理及设计流程进行了研究,并通过整体数值分析及局部精细有限元分析,探究了该新型结构在不同设计工况下的受力响应,并验证了该新型结构体系的可行性。

北京2022年冬奥会我国参赛目标、参赛成绩审视与后冬奥时代发展战略思考

北京2022年冬奥会是我国重要历史节点的重大标志性活动,对带动我国冰雪运动发展起到积极的促进作用。通过审视我国冰雪项目在北京2022年冬奥会上“全项目参赛”“最好成绩”2个目标的达成效果,进而思考后冬奥时代我国冰雪运动发展战略。研究认为:1)从参赛项目看,我国实现全部7个大项、15个分项参赛,但在109个小项中有6个小项未获得参赛资格。2)从参赛成绩看,共获得15枚奖牌,排名金牌榜第3位,多项成绩均创历史最佳。3)从竞技实力看,存在部分优势项目竞争对手增多、竞技实力保持难度较大,潜在优势项目多但向优势项目转化的难度较大,落后项目基础薄弱等问题。4)从后冬奥时代冰雪运动发展战略看,在竞技冰雪运动方面,实施扬精品、强实力、补短板、瞄增项“四要素”工程,落实多渠道、跨界项、多功能、全方位“四融合”方略及强化组织效能、科技助力、信息服务“三保障”举措;在群众冰雪运动方面,扩大冰运动地域覆盖,推动校园冰雪运动与赛事活动开展;在冰雪体育产业方面,拓宽冰雪体育产业融合发展模式,大力发展冰雪装备制造业;在冰雪体育文化方面,传播冬奥精神,讲好冬奥故事。

美国冬季运动项目国家队队员选拔方式、特点与启示——以北京2022年冬奥会为例

采用文献资料法对美国冬季运动项目国家队队员选拔方式进行分析,发现:美国冬季运动项目国家队队员的选拔方式主要分为两大类,即基于刚性标准的“以往战绩”“运动员排名”“选拔赛成绩”等选拔方式和基于柔性标准的“组建训练营”“自主选拔”等选拔方式;在队员选拔中充分考量各选拔方式的优缺点和各项目的特点,在优中选优、积极营造公开透明选拔环境的同时兼顾运动员的合法权益与合理诉求。结合实际提出对我国的启示:在国家队队员选拔中减少主观因素的影响,基于运动项目的实际情况,在兼顾选拔过程人性化的同时建立健全选拔工作监管机制。

“碳中和”目标下北京2022冬奥会低碳管理实践与经验探析

北京2022冬奥会是第一届实现“碳中和”的奥运赛事。运用文献资料法、逻辑归纳法对本次奥运会低碳管理工作研究发现,其意义包括彰显中国引领全球气候治理的决心和能力、树立奥运会低碳管理典范、为中国实现“双碳”目标贡献经验和模式等。为此,北京冬奥组委通过碳减排和碳抵消2个途径,共制定低碳能源、低碳场馆和低碳交通3项减排措施,并以林业碳汇和企业赞助核证自愿减排量为主要碳补偿手段。确保理念先行,深度融入国家发展大势;专设机构,统筹协调“碳中和”管理工作;方法创新,确保各项碳数据准确详实;标准牵引,全面指导可持续性管理工作;技术创新,有力推动“碳中和”承诺如期兑现。

2022年北京冬奥会体育赛事公共卫生和医疗保障的应对策略与分析

本文对第24届北京2022年冬季奥林匹克运动会(Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022,北京冬奥会)的公共卫生与赛事医疗保障和应对策略进行了全面梳理,剖析了此届冬奥会成功举办的经验,认为借助最新的科技力量和专业的医疗保障队伍支撑,牢牢铸就闭环系统内的疫情防控体系,是保障了本届冬奥会成功举行的重要基础和前提。基于此,在当下公共卫生事件频发的背景下,分析和总结本届北京冬奥会的成功做法,对未来我国乃至世界范围内举办大型体育赛事将提供有益的参考与借鉴。

Optimization of COVID-19 prevention and control measures during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics:a model-based study

Background:The continuous mutation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has made the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic complicated to predict and posed a severe challenge to the Beijing 2022Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics held in February and March 2022.Methods:During the preparations for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics,we established a dynamic model with pulsedetection and isolation efect to evaluate the efect of epidemic prevention and control measures such as entry policies,contact reduction,nucleic acid testing,tracking,isolation,and health monitoring in a closed-loop managementenvironment,by simulating the transmission dynamics in assumed scenarios.We also compared the importance ofeach parameter in the combination of intervention measures through sensitivity analysis.Results:At the assumed baseline levels,the peak of the epidemic reached on the 57th day.During the simulationperiod(100 days),13,382 people infected COVID-19.The mean and peak values of hospitalized cases were 2650and 6746,respectively.The simulation and sensitivity analysis showed that:(1)the most important measures to stopCOVID-19 transmission during the event were daily nucleic acid testing,reducing contact among people,and dailyhealth monitoring,with cumulative infections at 0.04%,0.14%,and 14.92%of baseline levels,respectively(2)strictlyimplementing the entry policy and reducing the number of cases entering the closed-loop system could delay thepeak of the epidemic by 9 days and provide time for medical resources to be mobilized;(3)the risk of environmentaltransmission was low.Conclusions:Comprehensive measures under certain scenarios such as reducing contact,nucleic acid testing,health monitoring,and timely tracking and isolation could efectively prevent virus transmission.Our research resultsprovided an important reference for formulating prevention and control measures during the Winter Olympics,andno epidemic spread in the closed-loop during the games indirectly proved the rationality of our research results.

冬奥会促进就业:国际镜鉴与中国方略

承办冬奥会是张家口市千载难逢的发展契机,在经济下行压力增大的背景下,如何借助冬奥会综合效益推动城市经济增长、缓解就业压力亟需破题。基于此,文章聚焦冬奥会促进举办城市就业这一议题,在劳动经济学、区域经济学理论指导下,利用文献资料法、数理统计法及对比研究法,研究了冬奥会促进举办城市就业的特殊价值与历史经验,并以此为关照,在测算2022年冬奥会对张家口市直接就业带动贡献的基础上,尝试提出后冬奥时代张家口市就业促进的优化策略。