In mapping out China’s future development,policymakers must bear in mind the challenges from a falling birthrate and aging society.Based on previous demographic censuses and original data of large sample surveys,this...In mapping out China’s future development,policymakers must bear in mind the challenges from a falling birthrate and aging society.Based on previous demographic censuses and original data of large sample surveys,this study employed an indirect method for estimating China’s total fertility rate(TFR)and a demographic forecast method based on the parity progression ratio(PPR).Our analysis details the socioeconomic implications behind demographic change,and we have proposed public policy countermeasures.The findings include:(i)China’s ultra-low fertility rate over the past three decades has led to an increasingly aging society,and China’s future fertility rate is likely to continue to decrease.(ii)Around 2024,China’s total population is expected to peak at 1.407 billion,followed by chronic negative population growth at an accelerating pace.By 2050,China’s newborn population will shrink to 8.73 million and the aging population will increase to roughly 30%of the total population resulting in the total dependency ratio above 50%.(iii)With a falling birthrate and aging society,China will face unprecedented challenges with respect to education,employment,and pension.(iv)As a public policy response,China should remove birth control altogether.If the fertility rate continues to stall,policymakers should consider issuing policies to encourage birth and create a birth-friendly society for all birth cycles.展开更多
For some critics, the publication of Milton＇s Paradise Lost in 1667 suggests his taking religious retreat from his previous political investment in both the Commonwealth Government （1649-1653） and Oliver Cromwell＇...For some critics, the publication of Milton＇s Paradise Lost in 1667 suggests his taking religious retreat from his previous political investment in both the Commonwealth Government （1649-1653） and Oliver Cromwell＇s Protectorate that was abnegated by the return of King Charles II in 1660. Not to mention that Milton＇s flamboyant portrayal of Satan appears to be a critique of republicanism： Just as the republicans who revolted against the monarchy, Satan tempts other angels to rebel against the omnipotent God and gain their freedom. This transgressive betrayal fails and is punished in Paradise Lost. However, when the strict censorship of the writings of Milton＇s contemporaries is taken into account, the strategies employed in Milton＇s Paradise Lost become clearer： It may be read as a veiled critique of kingship hiding behind the facade of a criticism of republicanism so as to circumvent censorship. In other words, the work may have surreptitiously conveyed a hidden message for his English citizens. That message may be indirectly delivered through Milton＇s innovative elaboration of the fall of Man, which is roughly described in the Genesis. Therefore, this essay argues that Milton veils the seed of political reform in the moral lessons conveyed in his presentation of the psychological dynamic of Adam and Eve＇s fall. In addition, this essay further explores how Milton endeavors to re-shape the national consciousness of the 17th century English people through alternate historical awareness.展开更多
文摘In mapping out China’s future development,policymakers must bear in mind the challenges from a falling birthrate and aging society.Based on previous demographic censuses and original data of large sample surveys,this study employed an indirect method for estimating China’s total fertility rate(TFR)and a demographic forecast method based on the parity progression ratio(PPR).Our analysis details the socioeconomic implications behind demographic change,and we have proposed public policy countermeasures.The findings include:(i)China’s ultra-low fertility rate over the past three decades has led to an increasingly aging society,and China’s future fertility rate is likely to continue to decrease.(ii)Around 2024,China’s total population is expected to peak at 1.407 billion,followed by chronic negative population growth at an accelerating pace.By 2050,China’s newborn population will shrink to 8.73 million and the aging population will increase to roughly 30%of the total population resulting in the total dependency ratio above 50%.(iii)With a falling birthrate and aging society,China will face unprecedented challenges with respect to education,employment,and pension.(iv)As a public policy response,China should remove birth control altogether.If the fertility rate continues to stall,policymakers should consider issuing policies to encourage birth and create a birth-friendly society for all birth cycles.
文摘For some critics, the publication of Milton＇s Paradise Lost in 1667 suggests his taking religious retreat from his previous political investment in both the Commonwealth Government （1649-1653） and Oliver Cromwell＇s Protectorate that was abnegated by the return of King Charles II in 1660. Not to mention that Milton＇s flamboyant portrayal of Satan appears to be a critique of republicanism： Just as the republicans who revolted against the monarchy, Satan tempts other angels to rebel against the omnipotent God and gain their freedom. This transgressive betrayal fails and is punished in Paradise Lost. However, when the strict censorship of the writings of Milton＇s contemporaries is taken into account, the strategies employed in Milton＇s Paradise Lost become clearer： It may be read as a veiled critique of kingship hiding behind the facade of a criticism of republicanism so as to circumvent censorship. In other words, the work may have surreptitiously conveyed a hidden message for his English citizens. That message may be indirectly delivered through Milton＇s innovative elaboration of the fall of Man, which is roughly described in the Genesis. Therefore, this essay argues that Milton veils the seed of political reform in the moral lessons conveyed in his presentation of the psychological dynamic of Adam and Eve＇s fall. In addition, this essay further explores how Milton endeavors to re-shape the national consciousness of the 17th century English people through alternate historical awareness.
