Review on the Impact of Climate Change on Great Lakes Region’s Agriculture and Water Resources

This study investigates the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the Midwest region of the United States, particularly the rising temperatures and precipitation brought about by hot weather activities and technological advances since the 19th century. From 1900 to 2010, temperatures in the Midwest rose by an average of 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit, which would also lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Precipitation is also expected to increase due to increased storm activity and changes in regional weather patterns. This paper explores the impact of these changes on urban and agricultural areas. In urban areas such as the city of Chicago, runoff from the increasing impervious surface areas poses challenges to the drainage system, and agriculture areas are challenged by soil erosion, nutrient loss, and fewer planting days due to excessive rainfall. Sustainable solutions such as no-till agriculture and the creation of grassland zones are discussed. Using historical data, recent climate studies and projections, the paper Outlines ways to enhance the Midwest’s ecology and resilience to climate change.

Assessment of rehabilitation strategies for lakes affected by anthropogenic and climatic changes: A case study of the Urmia Lake, Iran

Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.

Scenario-Based Assessment of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Kuwait: Insights for Effective Resource Management

The interdependency among water, food, and energy (WEF) in the GCC countries is strongly and closely interlinked, and is intensifying as demand for resources increases with population growth and changing consumption patterns, and are expected to be further compounded by the impacts of climate change. Therefore, integrated management of the three sectors is crucial to reduce trade-offs and build synergies among them. This paper presents a comprehensive framework to assess the WEF nexus in Kuwait as a representative case for the GCC countries. The framework consists of three main steps: 1) evaluating the influence of socio-economic development and climate change on water, energy, and food resources;2) generating scenario-based projections;and 3) conducting an extensive quantitative nexus analysis. The WEF interlinkages in Kuwait are modelled quantitatively using the Q-Nexus model, and current critical interdependencies are evaluated. Then, various WEF-Nexus scenarios were conducted for the year 2035 to explore the effects of management interventions in one sector on the other two sectors. The main findings are that per capita municipal water consumption is a major influencer on the WEF-nexus due to the heavy reliance on thermal desalination in municipal water supply in Kuwait, which is attributed to its energy intensity, financial cost, GHGs emissions, and environmental impacts on the marine and air environments. To reduce WEF trade-offs, mitigate risks, and build synergies among the three sectors, it is important to shift the current policy focus on supply-side management approach to the demand-side management and efficiency approaches.

Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain

Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain （NCP）, where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration （ET） has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model （GCM） ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus （Precipitation-ET） about 4%-24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat （3.0%-15.9%） in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS ON CHANGE OFAGRICULTURAL WATER CONSUMPTIONIN THE CHANGJIANG DELTA

ABSTRACT: The potential evapotranspiration of specific crops in the Changjiang Delta is calculated by using Pen-man-Monteith method, and an agricultural water consumption model in the area is developed on the basis of agricultural production situation. This model has higher precision compared with actual data and can reflect the actual status of agriculture water need. Considering the meteorological, hydrological, economical development situation of the Changjiang Delta, this paper calculates and analyzes the volumes of agricultural water consumption in 2000, 2010, 2030 and 2050 under different climate change conditions and different development speeds of urbanization in future. The result shows agriculture water demand increases with temperature rising and decreases obviously with cultivated area reducing. For the Changjiang Delta, the volume of agricultural water consumption in the future will less than that of present.

Water quality changing trends of the Miyun Reservoir

In order to simulate changes in the water quality of the Miyun Reservoir dueto continuous descent of surface water level, a 3-D ecological hydrodynamic model was developedthrough coupling the water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) with the environmental fluiddynamics code (EFDC). The model was then calibrated and verified. Four scenarios (S1, S21, S22 andS23) were simulated using the model. Results show that the water quality of the Miyun Reservoirunder conditions of low surface water level is apparently affected by different amounts of inflowand different total phosphorus (TP) loadings. The chlorophyll-a concentration might exceed 10 μg/Lin many areas of the Miyun Reservoir (This limitative value is seen as a critical value ofeutrophication) when large loadings of TP enter due to the amount of inflow increasing. Results ofscenario S23 indicate that control of TP loadings can decrease chlorophyll-a concentrationeffectively, and the water quality of the Miyun Reservoir will improve or retain its status quo.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model （CWSM） is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios （A1B, A2 and B2）. The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops＇ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.

The Impact of Water Scarcity on Food Security in Iraq

Iraq is part of the Fertile Crescent with the two large rivers:Tigris and Euphrates and their tributaries that secure the required quantity and quality of water to the Iraqi population for their different uses;including agriculture,industry,and other domestic requirements.During the last decades,however,the quantity and quality of water in these rivers decreased causing water scarcity in the country.This scarcity is having severe impacts on food security in Iraq since large cultivated areas in different parts of the country that grow different agricultural products have been abandoned due to lack of water.The worsening situation is attributed mainly to global climate changes including decreasing rainfall amounts,increase in air temperature,and insufficient water inflows in the two main rivers and their tributaries.This last issue is exasperated by the unfair water sharing policies of the riparian countries namely Turkey and Iran.In writing this article relevant data from different sources were used.Numerous published reports and papers dealing with this important issue were consulted,while at the same time,the long experience of the authors in these very important issues was also drawn upon to elucidate the difficulties that are current today and those expected in the future in this field.

Trend of Salt Lake Changes in the Background of Global Warming and Tactics for Adaptation to the Changes

Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions, the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits, avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate in western China is probably turning from warm-dry to warm-moist. The authors analyze the change trend of salt lakes sensu lato (with salinity≥0.3 wt% (NaCl)eq) and salt lakes sensu stricto (with salinity ≥3.5 wt% (NaCl)eq) in China in such climatic conditions and distinguish three types of salt lake areas (i.e. lake water rising type, lake water falling type and lake water rising and unstable type) according to the characteristics of lake water rising and shrinking. In order to conform to the climatic and lake changes in China's salt lake areas, the authors propose to add and improve hydrological and meteorological observation stations and integrate observations with remote sensing monitoring in important salt lake areas and set up multidisciplinary and interdepartmental basic projects to monitor and study recent climatic and environmental changes in salt lake areas of western China. Moreover, it is necessary to build additional flood-control and drought-preventing water conservancy facilities in key salt lake areas and work out measures for ecological protection in salt lake areas. Full consideration should be given to the influence of flooding when building saltfields and implementing capital projects.

The Impact of Climate Change on Ground Water Supplies Affecting Rural Livelihood in Developing Countries

Climate change is becoming a serious issue nowadays.There are profound environmental,economic and political implications of global warming. Ecosystems,from mountains to oceans and from the poles to the tropics,are undergoing rapid change.The cost will be borne by all,but especially by the

Analysis on the Trend of Water Quality in Haihe River Basin from 2005 to 2017

Haihe River is one of the 7 largest rivers in China. The problem of water pollution in Haihe River Basin is serious. The water quality of Haihe River Basin is generally the best in the north and the worst in the south. And the water quality of the Luanhe River is the best, the proportion of I - III is about 60%, and the water quality of the Tuhaimajia River is the worst, the proportion of >V exceeds 60%. According to the trend of water quality change, the improvement of Shandong Province in Tuhaimajia River system is the most obvious, and proportion of >V water decreased from 100% to about 30%.

Analysis of Water Quality Variation and Trend in the Ji'an Section of the Ganjiang River

Based on the monitoring data of water quality in the Ji'an section of the Ganjiang River from 2008 to 2018 by the Water Resources Monitoring Center of Ji'an City,single factor evaluation method,comprehensive pollution index method and seasonal Kendall test method were adopted to study and analyze the characteristics of surface water resources and the changing trend of water quality in the river section.The results show that the water quality in the Ji'an section of the Ganjiang River was generally good,and the water quality of each function zone reached the target requirement.The comprehensive pollution index was controlled between 0.21 and 0.40 over the years,and there was no significant change in time and space,and the water quality was relatively stable.The dissolved oxygen and permanganate index tended to improve,and there was no change in five-day biochemical oxygen demand,while ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus showed an upward trend.The water quality as a whole showed a trend of deterioration.By discussing the influencing factors of the characteristic pollutants,the causes of water quality in the Ji'an section of the Ganjiang River were further analyzed.It is suggested to strengthen the supervision and control of non-point source and point source pollution.

Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities

In this study,we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data from the Syr Darya River Basin during the period of 1930–2015 to investigate variations in river runoff and the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff.The Syr Darya River,which is supplied by snow and glacier meltwater upstream,is an important freshwater source for Central Asia,as nearly half of the population is concentrated in this area.River runoff in this arid region is sensitive to climate change and human activities.Therefore,estimation of the climatic and hydrological changes and the quantification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff are of great concern and important for regional water resources management.The long-term trends of hydrological time series from the selected 11 hydrological stations in the Syr Darya River Basin were examined by non-parametric methods,including the Pettitt change point test and Mann-Kendall trend tests.It was found that 8 out of 11 hydrological stations showed significant downward trends in river runof f.Change of river runoff variations occurred in the year around 1960.Moreover,during the study period(1930–2015),annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and annual potential evapotranspiration in the river basin increased substantially.We employed hydrological sensitivity method to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.It was estimated that human activities accounted for over 82.6%–98.7%of the reduction in river runoff,mainly owing to water withdrawal for irrigation purpose.The observed variations in river runoff can subsequently lead to adverse ecological consequences from an ecological and regional water resources management perspective.

Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use:A provincial analysis in China

Agriculture consumes huge amounts of water in China and is profoundly affected by climate change.This study projects the agricultural water use towards 2030 under the climate change mitigation target at the provincial level in China by linking a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model and a regression model.By solving the endogeneities amongst agricultural water use,output and climate factors,we explore how these variables affect water use and further predict future trends through soft-link with the IMED|CGE model.It is found that sunshine duration has a slightly positive impact on water use.Furthermore,agricultural output will significantly drive agricultural water use based on historical data of the past 16 years.Results also show that carbon reduction would have a trade-offor co-benefit effect on water use due to regional disparity.Provinces with increasing agricultural exports,such as Xinjiang and Ningxia,would anticipate considerable growth in agricultural water use induced by carbon reduction.The soft-link method proposed by this study could be applied for future studies that aim to incorporate natural and geographical factors into human activities,and vice versa,for assessing sustainable development policies in an integrated way.

Climate and Water Balance Changes in the Kinneret Watershed: A Review

Regional Climate Change studied during 1950-2019 aimed at enhancement of aridity was indicated recently in the Lake Kinneret (Israel) watershed. Climate change was indicated by: Higher periodical frequency of negative SPI Values (Standard Precipitation Index), decline of Precipitation regime and River flow inputs that was followed by decline of Lake Kinneret WL and Elevation of ET regime. Nevertheless aridity enhanced the opposite, decline of ET capacities. Underground flows indicated outputs enhancement. The temporal decline of air temperature during 1940-1980 probably due to the change of ALBEDO Factor was twisted later into regional temperature elevation. During the 1950s, old lake Hula and surrounding wetlands were drained and water cover surface was converted to plant cover, which enhanced sunlight energy reflection. Followed eventual climate change, management legislations were a reduction of water allocation for agricultural irrigation. A recent public dispute has indicated contradicted conclusions as causation for WL decline in Lake Kinneret: 1) Enhancement of Agricultural water consumption in the Upper Jordan Watershed and 2) Climate change-aridity enhancement. This paper confirms the second conclusion.

Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Water Quality in Three Sub-Catchments of the Rur River, Germany

The Rur catchment has over time undergone land use change which could have affected the biogeochemical processes of the river. Three sub-catchments in the Rur, Upper Rur, Inde and Wurm have different kinds of land use. Upper Rur is more natural catchment;Inde is mixed type and Wurm is highly modified by anthropogenic activities. This study investigated how land use changes from 2000 to 2018 have influenced SO4 and Cl dynamics in the Rur catchment. Land use maps were developed in QGIS environment for land use change calculation. Historical water quality data were collected from the online public source by Ministry of Environment and Nature Conservation in Germany. R-software was used for statistical analysis and graphical presentation. Less land use change was observed in the Upper Rur between 2000 to 2018. But in the Inde and Wurm decrease in agricultural land and associated increase in industrial, commercial and urban land were observed. Increase in mining area inside the catchment has enhanced the level of SO4 and EC in the Inde river. Conversion rates of natural to human dominated land use could be quantified in this study through land use change mapping, which will further help in making water management plan for these and comparable German and European catchments. However, high quality historical data set is a key requirement to maximize the output in process of relating impact of land use change in water quality.

Incremental adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under water scarcity condition in Northeast Iran

Population growth and climate changes as two synergistic phenomena have damaged water resources nationwide and worldwide.The water resources available for agriculture is one of the most critical limiting factors in food production enhancement in Iran.Agriculture must tackle the challenge of supplying the increasing demands for food due to population growth.For this purpose,we must get acquainted with how farmers make decisions and their adaptations to water scarcity conditions by studying their adaptation strategies.In this case,we can predict the farmers’behaviors by recognizing the optimal adaptation strategies under water scarcity crisis.This study aims to provide a model to examine and analyze the farmers’behaviors in the realm of water scarcity and the contributing factors to it,facilitating a better understanding of the potential implications of such scarcity,introducing the adaptation changeability procedures for agricultural water management and assistance to farmers to adapt,and developing the actions for mitigating the vulnerability of agriculture sector in Iran.In this study,175 farmers in Northeast Iran were interviewed to conduct an applied research by questionnaire survey.The research tool was a researcher-made questionnaire designed based on the theoretical literature and designed model.According to the research,the model of incremental adaptation strategies could determine the effects of a set of psychological and socioeconomic factors and the formation of adaptation decisions in water resources management under water scarcity conditions.The results indicated that the concern and attitude,farmers’knowledge and technical skill,self-efficiency and risk-taking level,social capital and information availability for farmers,and the internal norm are significantly and positively correlated in this model.The results provide a proper understanding of farmers’sustainable decision-making and a perspective on contributing factors to the strategy framework and improved policies in the form of incremental adaptation strategies when facing water scarcity in agricultural water resources management.Thus,this study will respond to deal with water scarcity by changing farmers’behaviors in dry lands and water scarce regions.

The Great Lapse: Climate Change, Water Resources and Economic Risks in the Great Lakes

The striking vastness of the world’s largest surface freshwater resource, the Laurentian Great Lakes, has generated the fallacy that they are not highly vulnerable to climate change. This fallacy has created a great lapse in our research and understanding of the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes, which are approaching critical environmental thresholds and jeopardizing ecosystem services. This article takes the novel approach of correcting the disconnect between the perception of vastness and the reality of vulnerability to climate change in the Great Lakes, and takes an additional novel step to link the water risks with the economic risks. The primary purpose is to demonstrate the interdependence of the freshwater ecosystem services affected by climate change with the economies that are highly dependent on those freshwater services in the Great Lakes region. Although many believe that environmental science or ethical arguments should be sufficient to warrant action on climate change, evidence shows that policy-makers are not compelled to generate advances unless there are strong economic components. This article highlights the leading edge of climate science for the Great Lakes, having conducted 32 in depth interviews with experts in microbiology, ecology, and limnology, among others, but it also adds substantively to previous work by providing economic evidence of water risks in the agricultural sector and energy sector, which constitute over $6 trillion in value and jobs that are specifically dependent on lakes waters. The article concludes by articulating three specific conclusions: the economic viability of the agricultural sector and the energy sector are jeopardized by loss of federal funding for climate change adaptation in the water sector;the existing policies such as between sectors such as the Farm Bill and Energy Future Bill are mal-aligned and should be aligned with the water sector;and negative environmental externalities including factors that exacerbate climate change should be incorporated into the true cost of water so we can more accurately conduct ecosystem valuation and, thus, address the true economic and environmental cost of climate change on the Great Lakes and our greatest water resources. This paper has not previously been published.

Stress-Tolerant Cassava: The Role of Integrative Ecophysiology-Breeding Research in Crop Improvement

This review highlights an integrative multidisciplinary eco-physiological, breeding and agronomical research on the tropical starchy root crop cassava conducted at CIAT. Laboratory and field studies have elucidated several physio-logical/biochemical mechanisms and plant traits underlying the high productivity in favorable conditions and tolerance to stressful environments, such as prolonged water stress and marginal low-fertility soils. Cassava is endowed with inherent high photosynthetic capacity expressed in near optimal environments that correlates with biological produc- tivity across environments and wide range of germplasm.Field-measured photosynthetic rates were also associated with root yield, particularly under prolonged drought. Extensive rooting systems and stomatal sensitivity to both atmospheric humidity and soil water shortages underlie tolerance to drought. The C4 phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (PEPC) was associated with photosynthesis and yield making it a selectable trait, along with leaf duration, particularly for stressful environments. Germplasm from the core collection was screened for tolerance to soils low in P and K, resulting in the identification of several accessions with good levels of tolerance. Cassava has a comparative advantage against major tropical food and energy crops in terms of biological productivity. Results also point to the importance of field research versus greenhouse or growth-chamber studies. In globally warming climate,the crop is predicted to play more role in tropical and subtropical agro-ecosystems. More research is needed under tropical field conditions to understand the interactive responses to elevated carbon dioxide, temperature, soil fertility, and plant water relations.

Spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration and reference crop water requirement over 1957-2016 in Iran based on CRU TS gridded dataset

Agriculture needs to produce more food to feed the growing population in the 21st century.It makes the reference crop water requirement(WREQ)a major challenge especially in regions with limited water and high water demand.Iran,with large climatic variability,is experiencing a serious water crisis due to limited water resources and inefficient agriculture.In order to overcome the issue of uneven distribution of weather stations,gridded Climatic Research Unit(CRU)data was applied to analyze the changes in potential evapotranspiration(PET),effective precipitation(EFFPRE)and WREQ.Validation of data using in situ observation showed an acceptable performance of CRU in Iran.Changes in PET,EFFPRE and WREQ were analyzed in two 30-a periods 1957-1986 and 1987-2016.Comparing two periods showed an increase in PET and WREQ in regions extended from the southwest to northeast and a decrease in the southeast,more significant in summer and spring.However,EFFPRE decreased in the southeast,northeast,and northwest,especially in winter and spring.Analysis of annual trends revealed an upward trend in PET(14.32 mm/decade)and WREQ(25.50 mm/decade),but a downward trend in EFFPRE(-11.8 mm/decade)over the second period.Changes in PET,EFFPRE and WREQ in winter have the impact on the annual trend.Among climate variables,WREQ showed a significant correlation(r=0.59)with minimum temperature.The increase in WREQ and decrease in EFFPRE would exacerbate the agricultural water crisis in Iran.With all changes in PET and WREQ,immediate actions are needed to address the challenges in agriculture and adapt to the changing climate.