Understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.

Balance of Datum Land Prices Among Cities Based on the City Gravitation Model and Stochastic Diffusion Equation

城市的资料陆地价格的平衡被完成加音地区性打价格并且让价格真正在城市之中反映不同经济发展层次和陆地价格。明智的线性插值平衡方法广泛地使用了的当前的片有总是在一些城市之中导致不能令人满意的平衡的二个缺点。当到包围地区的中央城市里的陆地价格的过量到达某个度时，周围的城市里的陆地价格与本地陆地等级和土地利用水平一致不仅，而且在中央城市里由陆地价格的散开影响了。因此，土地基于城市引力模型和随机的散开方程定价的资料的一个新平衡计划向前被带。最后，新方法在湖北省在资料陆地价格平衡的实践被检验，中国。

Discussion on the Method of Land Quality Geochemical Evaluation Database : A Case Study of Diao Town and Xinzhai Town of Zhangqiu City

The land quality geochemical evaluation database was mainly based on soil geochemical surveys.During its construction process,geochemical survey data involving atmospheric dry(wet)sediments,irrigation water,fertilizers and crops was simultaneously collected,analyzed and compiled into result maps using MAPGIS.ACCESS was used to manage standardized result data to establish an evaluation database.The database included a basic spatial database involving regional geography,topography,soil type and land use,a spatial evaluation database centered on the sampling layout of the work areas of soil,irrigation water,crops and other media,the distribution and changes of soil chemical elements,the classification of soil pollution and the classification of soil element environment and nutrients,and an evaluation database of various result maps such as land planning map,characteristic agricultural product planting plan suggestion map and fertilization suggestion map.The database realized the scientific and effective management of the samples and corresponding numerous laboratory analysis data,and provides basic information for the geochemical survey and evaluation of the land quality in the evaluation areas and the overall comprehensive research,and an important basis for promoting the adjustment of agricultural economic planning,the development of modern green agriculture and the development and utilization of high-quality characteristic land resources.

Analysis on the Application of Quality Classification of Cultivated Land Resources in Municipal Land Space Planning:A Case Study of Chongzuo City

Cultivated land is the most important strategic resource to ensure food security.The newly constructed quality classification system of cultivated land resources considers the cultivated land health index for the first time.How the new classification and grading index system and the quality classification results of cultivated land resources to effectively guide the preparation of municipal land space planning has become a key research direction.This paper expounds the overall design idea for quality classification of cultivated land resources and classification index system.Taking Chongzuo City as an example,through the analysis of the quality classification results of cultivated land resources in the study area,using GIS spatial analysis and factor pairwise comparison method,this paper explores the application ideas and methods of quality classification research results of cultivated land resources in the formulation of cultivated land retention target,the delineation of dominant areas of cultivated land protection,the delineation of three control lines,the comprehensive improvement of land,and ecological restoration zoning in the municipal land space planning.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Unsafe State of Arable Land Resources:A Case Study of Chengdu City

We establish the unsafe state indicator system reflecting the unsafe state of arable land within the scope of the city. Using analytic hierarchy process and entropy method,we determine the weight of indicator; using linear weighted method,we conduct comprehensive evaluation of unsafe operation of arable land resource system in Chengdu City during the period 1999-2010. Through the unsafe state analysis,we draw the following conclusion: the share of arable land area in total land area,effective irrigation area,the area of low-yielding field,application rate of chemical fertilizer per unit area of arable land,and application rate of pesticide per unit area of arable land,are the key factors for easing the unsafe state in the short term. Finally we put forth the following recommendations: strengthening profound understanding of the seriousness of unsafe state of arable land; strengthening the basic arable land protection; continuing to tap the quality enhancement potential of arable land; consistently implementing the guideline and policy of " Combination of Use and Maintenance" .

Land ecosystems classification and eco－economic evaluation in Wuding River Basin of Yulin Region

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Evaluating Land Use/Land Cover Change and Its Socioeconomic Implications in Agarfa District of Bale Zone, Southeastern Ethiopia

A systematic analysis of land use/cover change is so decisive to exactly understand the extent of change and take essential measures to curb down the rate of changes and protect the land cover resources sustainably. This land use/land cover change study was conducted in Agarfa district of Bale zone, Oromia Regional State, Southeastern Ethiopia. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the trends, drivers and its socio-economic and environmental implication in study area. A descriptive research method was employed to achieve the intended objectives of the study. In the three years (1976, 1995, and 2014) Landsat Satellite images and socio-economic survey were the main data sources for this study. ERDAS Imagine and Arch-GIS tools were used to classify and generate land use/land cover maps of the study area. Survey questionnaires, key informant interviews, and field observation were employed to obtain information on drivers and its socio-economic and environmental implication in the district. The results show that the land use/land cover of the study area had changed dramatically during the period of 38 years. A rapid loss of forest land and shrub land cover in the landscape took place between 1976 and 2014. Conversely, agriculture and grazing lands were increased by 30% and 42% respectively at the expense of the lost land use/land cover types. Forest land is the most converted cover type during the entire study period. In the 38 years, forest lands diminished by over 65% of the original forest cover that was existed at the base year (1976). Local climate change, declining agricultural productivity and livestock quantity and quality and scarcity of fuel wood and constructional materials were some of the socio-economic and livelihood impacts of land use and land cover change of the study area. Thus, this finding affords information to land users and policy makers on extent of the change and social forces leading to this changes and its subsequent implication on local socio-economic and environmental conditions of the study area.

基于QUEST决策树的Landsat 8遥感影像的南京市土地分类研究

以南京市为研究对象,获取研究区域Landsat8 OLI遥感影像,利用QUEST决策树的分类方法对影像进行分类。将植被覆盖指数(NDVI)、迭代自组织数据分析技术(ISODATA)非监督分类作为地学辅助数据因子添加到分类波段中,构建多源数据集进行不同特征的融合,处理目标类别之间的非线性关系。该方法灵活性大,总精度达91.045%,Kappa系数为0.851,取得了比普通方法更好的精度。精度的提高有助于解决南京市复杂的规划、决策和管理等问题。

基于Landsat TM影像的长春市土地利用变化分析

利用1995、2006和2011年Landsat TM影像将长春市土地利用类型分为六类,并分析其面积变化情况。结果表明,近17年来,除建设用地面积不断增加,其余类型面积均有减少。研究结果对制定城市中长期规划具有指导意义。

基于Landsat数据的普洱市土地利用变化动态监测

以普洱市2005年和2014年Landsat数据为数据源,将研究区分为林地、农地、灌草地、水域、建设用地5类,采用神经网络方法提取2个时期的土地利用数据并进行动态监测。最终得出普洱市土地利用变化情况:林地面积减少10.83%,农地面积减少2.50%,灌草地面积增加10.3%,水域面积减少0.03%,建设用地面积增加0.38%。在土地利用变化结果的基础上,进一步分析了土地利用覆盖动态度以及土地利用变化原因。

基于Landsat卫星的沈阳市土地覆盖变化研究

土地利用、土地覆盖变化(LUCC)是当今遥感领域的重要研究课题,也是地学界、生物学界、环境学界等关注的热点问题之一^([1])。特别是对大城市的土地类型变化研究,有利于揭示城市化进程中的空间变化规律。本文利用沈阳市1990、2000、2010年3期Landsat系列卫星数据,经过空间配准、相对辐射校正、图像增强等预处理,分别对3期遥感图像进行监督分类,提取土地类型转换信息并进行景观格局分析^([2])。结果表明,20年间沈阳市土地覆盖变化主要表现为耕地和建筑用地的转变,其中1990—2000年,耕地和建筑用地均有缓慢增加;而2000—2010年耕地面积明显减少,建筑用地显著增加,城市化进程大大加快。本文成果对沈阳市未来城市规划和可持续发展相关政策的制定有一定的参考价值。

基于Landsat8 OLI影像的铜陵市土地利用变化分析

遥感影像分类技术能够快速获取土地利用信息。以铜陵市2015年的Landsat8OLI遥感影像,以及1998年的土地利用图、政区图为数据源,经过配准、辐射校正、几何校正等预处理,利用监督分类和专家分类法对影像进行分类,并对分类结果进行精度分析,选用精度较高的分类结果;利用ArcGIS对1998—2015年的土地利用变化情况进行统计和分析,并对土地变化趋势的分析结果进行验证。研究结果表明,由于城市化的推进,1998—2015年铜陵市水体总面积变化较大,林地面积有较大增长,建设用地面积稳定增加,而裸地面积大幅度减少。研究结果可为铜陵市的可持续性发展和土地的有效管理提供理论基础和依据。

Urban Residential Land Value Analysis： Case Danyang, China

The research attempts to find out how the location of the CBD(central business district), the dis- tance to the main roads, the distribution of the public facilities, and the urban land-use pattern influence the urban residential land value variations. The study begins by identifying the influences into two categories: general circumstance and micro/neighboring circumstances. Benchmark price and market land value are tested to be the results influenced by general circumstance and both the influential range and the influential force of individual land-use are investigated and compared. At last explicit case comparisons are also taken for testing the result. The finding of the research is not only useful for understanding the spatial patterns of land values, but also beneficial for the policy-makers concerning land administration and urban planning.

严控“溢价率”条件下住宅用地定价影响因素研究

土地市场是全国统一大市场的有机组成部分,地价管理是土地市场建设的核心工作之一。文章从土地的商品属性和特征价格出发,阐述了不完全竞争状态下的地价波动现象,强调了建立要素市场价格异常波动调节机制的必要性。基于评估方法交叉混淆、评估参数偏差不当、权重选取主观随意、土地评估对未来房价走势及库存和销售情况不敏感等问题,分析了土地评估的局限性。结合严控“溢价率”政策对住宅用地定价的更高要求,指出政府在确定土地出让价格时需一并考虑土地出让底价与15%“溢价率”之间的上下限关系。研究认为:确定住宅用地出让价格是一项复杂而庞大的系统工程,并非由单一因素决定,除参考土地评估价格以外,还应重视土地储备成本、土地出让计提、土地隐性成本、出让年度计划、土地使用强度、地价房价关系、房屋去化周期等7种因素对土地出让价格的影响。在此基础上,将土地出让成本的硬性约束作用、土地供应的政策导向作用、房地联动的产业关联作用纳入住宅用地价格形成机制之中。

基建投资、工业土地价格与城投债发行利率

以2011-2019年中国155个城市为样本,采用面板数据模型、中介效应模型和GMM方法探讨了基建投资、工业土地价格对城投债发行利率的影响。研究结果表明:基础设施建设投资规模和工业土地出让价格对城投债发行利率分别具有正向和负向影响,且低碳试点城市和非试点城市存在显著的区域异质性;基建投资的总体效益与技术效益的提高有助于融资平台以较低的利率发行城投债。

度效两维视角下城市居住用地评估与分类研究——以济南中心城区为例

城市居住用地评估是实施分类引导、提高利用效率的前提和基础。文章基于土地利用强度和服务效能两维构建的城市居住用地评估逻辑框架,借助空间叠加技术评估和划分了济南中心城区居住用地类型,并提出城市居住用地分类引导策略。结果表明:济南中心城区居住用地平均容积率为1.73,利用强度为中等,空间上表现出“大分散、小聚集”的分布特征;居住用地服务人群活力均值为0.22,而服务规模整体不高、服务质量差异较大,服务效能总体呈“中心-外围”圈层结构;形成了高效型、服务型、开发型和低效型4种类型居住用地,高效型和服务型用地属中心聚集型,开发型和低效型的空间分布相对分散,4类用地的规模和空间分异明显。

城市空气质量的经济价值评估——基于土地市场的视角

结合微观土地交易和城市PM2.5地表年均浓度等数据,研究空气污染对土地价格的影响及传导机制,并通过“两步法”评估中国城市空气质量的经济价值。基准结果显示,城市空气质量改善显著提高了土地价格,并估计出中国城市空气质量的经济价值约为27.369元/m2。通过剔除冬季集中供暖地区样本、改变模型设定形式,以及将核心解释变量滞后一期、两期处理后,基准回归的结论依然稳健。采用城市的空气流通系数和逆温天数作为空气污染的工具变量,内生性处理结果表明空气污染与城市中心地价之间存在负向的因果关系,进一步支持了基准结论。考虑到所处区域和城市层级等方面存在的差异,研究发现中国城市清洁空气的经济价值呈现出异质性。具体而言,东部地区城市空气质量的经济价值明显高于中西部地区,不同层级城市空气质量的经济价值也存在一定的梯度,其中一线城市最高,四线城市最低。机制检验结果表明,城市人口规模是土地价格反映空气质量经济价值的关键渠道。

规划管控约束下耕地细碎化评价与整治分区

科学评估耕地细碎化治理的适宜性与必要性,并进行合理的整治分区有利于耕地资源的高效利用与空间布局,促进三生空间协调发展。该研究以典型山区县及资源型城市江西省德兴市为例,基于村域尺度,从生产适宜性、空间集聚性、管控约束性3个视角构建评价体系,采用多因素综合叠加评价法对耕地细碎化进行评价,借助三维魔方空间分类法开展整治分区研究。结果表明:1)各村耕地资源生产适宜性良好,均值为0.558;空间集聚性一般,均值为0.350;管控约束性标准差大于均值,各村差异较大;耕地细碎化治理适宜性较高,均值为0.711。2)统筹评价结果将德兴市划分为高质保障区、综合整治区、设施优化区、集约整合区以及现状维持区5区,基于各区生产适宜性、空间集聚性与管控约束性差异制定差别化整治措施与治理策略。研究结果可为耕地细碎化整治提供有益的参考借鉴。

顾及城郊农田生态服务价值的中心城区生态安全网络重构

针对中心城区日益凸显的农业、生态、城镇三类空间冲突问题,借鉴田园城市理论,创新性地提出一种利用城郊高生态价值农田细化城市生态安全网络,构建“三生”空间协调有序的国土空间格局的方法。利用防城港市遥感影像、国土调查和社会经济数据,在城郊耕地综合评价的基础上,采用评价结果修正的当量因子法评估其农田生态价值。进一步利用InVEST、MSPA及MCR模型初步构建市域生态安全网络,再将高生态价值农田作为临时生态节点完成网络重构,并进行对比分析。以重构的新网络指导中心城区的规划分区优化,并对市域和中心城区两级生态网络要素的空间管控规则及联合管理机制进行了探索。结果表明:(1)防城港市区单位面积农田生态价值为35540元/hm^(2),高生态价值农田较均匀的环城分部。(2)重构后的网络新增34个临时节点和51条绿带,延长48.425 km,增加808.89 hm^(2)生态源。(3)新网络能有效引导中心城区形成圈层发展结构,较原网络在连通性、有效性、稳定性上均有所提升。研究结果为注重协调发展的国土空间规划背景下区域空间格局优化提供了新的思路。