BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographica...BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographical locations is essential to establish effective strategies for prevention and treatment.We report the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in age-standardized rates(ASR)of IBD in different regions based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study from 1990-2019,and the relationships between IBD and the human development index(HDI)and socio-demographic index(SDI).The prevalence trends of IBD were predicted by gender from 2019-2039.AIM To comprehensively investigate IBD data,providing further insights into the management of this chronic disease.METHODS We collected the information on the incidence of IBD from the GBD study from 1990-2019 to calculate the AAPC and EAPC in ASR of IBD in different regions.The relationships between IBD,HDI,and SDI were analyzed.The Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the prevalence trends of IBD by gender from 2019-2039,and the reliability of the results was validated.RESULTS North America consistently had the highest IBD ASR,while Oceania consistently had the lowest.East Asia had the fastest average annual growth in ASR(2.54%),whereas Central Europe had the fastest decline(1.38%).Countries with a low age-standardized incidence rates in 1990 showed faster growth in IBD while there was no significant correlation in 2019.Additionally,IBD increased faster in countries with a low age-standardized death rates in 1990,whereas the opposite was true in 2019.Analysis of SDI and IBD ASR showed that countries with a high SDI generally had a higher IBD ASR.Finally,the projections showed a declining trend in the incidence of IBD from 2019-2039,but a gradual increase in the number of cases.CONCLUSION As the global population increases and ages,early monitoring and prevention of IBD is important to reduce the disease burden,especially in countries with a high incidence of IBD.展开更多
According to the deficiency of the strain accumulating and releasing curves and the previous models, the strain-accumulating rate of the strain accumulating and releasing model has been deduced based on the G-R relati...According to the deficiency of the strain accumulating and releasing curves and the previous models, the strain-accumulating rate of the strain accumulating and releasing model has been deduced based on the G-R relation and the empirical formula between energy release and earthquake magnitude, where the strain-accumulating rate is relative independent of the strain-releasing rate. Five typical areas in Chinese mainland are selected on the basis of the hypothesis on active tectonic block, and small earthquakes from 1970 are imported to calculate the annual strain-accumulating rates considering the completeness of historical seismic data. Having introduced the strain-accumulating rates into the amended model, present strain phases are got. According to the present stages in their own cycles, the future earthquake tendency of each sub-region is discussed.展开更多
BACKGROUND Studies exploring suicide mortality on a global scale are sparse,and most evaluations were limited to certain populations.AIM To assess global,regional and national trends of suicide mortality.METHODS Suici...BACKGROUND Studies exploring suicide mortality on a global scale are sparse,and most evaluations were limited to certain populations.AIM To assess global,regional and national trends of suicide mortality.METHODS Suicide mortality data for the period 2000-2019 were obtained from the mortality database of the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease Study.Age-standardized rates(ASRs;expressed per 100000)were presented.To assess trends of suicide mortality,joinpoint regression analysis was used:The average annual percent change(AAPC)with the corresponding 95%confidence interval(95%CI)was calculated.RESULTS A total of 759028(523883 male and 235145 female)suicide deaths were reported worldwide in 2019.The global ASR of mortality of suicide was 9.0/100000 population in both sexes(12.6 in males vs 5.4 in females).In both sexes,the highest rates were found in the region of Africa(ASR=11.2),while the lowest rates were reported in Eastern Mediterranean(ASR=6.4).Globally,from 2000 to 2019,ASRs of mortality of suicide had a decreasing tendency in both sexes together[AAPC=-2.4%per year;95%CI:(-2.6)-(-2.3)].The region of the Americas experienced a significant increase in suicide mortality over 2000-2019 unlike other regions that had a declining trend.Out of all 133 countries with a decline in suicide mortality,Barbados(AAPC=-10.0%),Grenada(AAPC=-8.5%),Serbia(AAPC=-7.6%),and Venezuela(AAPC=-6.2%)showed the most marked reduction in mortality rates.Out of all 26 countries with a rise in suicide mortality,Lesotho(AAPC=+6.0%),Cyprus(AAPC=+5.1%),Paraguay(AAPC=+3.0%),Saudi Arabia(AAPC=+2.8%),Brunei(AAPC=+2.6%),Greece(AAPC=+2.6%),Georgia(AAPC=+2.1%),and Mexico(AAPC=+2.0%),are among those with the highest increase in mortality.CONCLUSION Decreasing trends in suicide mortality were observed in most countries across the world.Unfortunately,the mortality of suicide showed an increasing trend in a number of populations.Further research should explore the reasons for these unfavorable trends,in order to consider and recommend more efforts for suicide prevention in these countries.展开更多
Influenza viruses continue to cause epidemics worldwide every year.However,due to the lack of an effective assessment for the severity of influenza epidemics,it was extremely difficult to take preventative measures.Da...Influenza viruses continue to cause epidemics worldwide every year.However,due to the lack of an effective assessment for the severity of influenza epidemics,it was extremely difficult to take preventative measures.Data were extracted from infectious diseases reports from 2011–2018.Joinpoint regression model and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model were built to understand the characteristics and processes of the epidemic.The reported incidence of influenza was 1,913,698 from January 2011 to February 2018,with an average-yearly-reported-incidence-rate of 19.21 per 100,000.However,there had been a substantial nationwide epidemic of influenza after September 2017,when the average yearly reported incidence rate was 87.29 per 100,000 and an annual percentage change of 48.1%.The hemagglutinin genes of most influenza A(H1N1 and H3N2)viruses from the period of the epidemic had lower homology to those before August 2017.All the hemagglutinin of the recommended A(H3N2,H1N1)and B(Victoria)viruses for vaccines 2017/2018 had low matches with the epidemic viruses.The basic reproduction number was 1.53.The vaccination benefit was linearly related to vaccination coverage,while the quarantine measure had only significantly benefited when over 60%of the quarantined population.The most severe epidemic of influenza in China since 2011 occurred during the period from September 2017 to February 2018.Compared to quarantine,influenza vaccination is more effective way to prevent influenza,and strategies to increase vaccination coverage should be taken for the prevention of severe epidemics of influenza.展开更多
基金Supported by the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi,No.2021ZDLSF02-06.
文摘BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographical locations is essential to establish effective strategies for prevention and treatment.We report the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in age-standardized rates(ASR)of IBD in different regions based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study from 1990-2019,and the relationships between IBD and the human development index(HDI)and socio-demographic index(SDI).The prevalence trends of IBD were predicted by gender from 2019-2039.AIM To comprehensively investigate IBD data,providing further insights into the management of this chronic disease.METHODS We collected the information on the incidence of IBD from the GBD study from 1990-2019 to calculate the AAPC and EAPC in ASR of IBD in different regions.The relationships between IBD,HDI,and SDI were analyzed.The Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the prevalence trends of IBD by gender from 2019-2039,and the reliability of the results was validated.RESULTS North America consistently had the highest IBD ASR,while Oceania consistently had the lowest.East Asia had the fastest average annual growth in ASR(2.54%),whereas Central Europe had the fastest decline(1.38%).Countries with a low age-standardized incidence rates in 1990 showed faster growth in IBD while there was no significant correlation in 2019.Additionally,IBD increased faster in countries with a low age-standardized death rates in 1990,whereas the opposite was true in 2019.Analysis of SDI and IBD ASR showed that countries with a high SDI generally had a higher IBD ASR.Finally,the projections showed a declining trend in the incidence of IBD from 2019-2039,but a gradual increase in the number of cases.CONCLUSION As the global population increases and ages,early monitoring and prevention of IBD is important to reduce the disease burden,especially in countries with a high incidence of IBD.
基金State Key Basic Research Development and Programming Project of China (G19980407) and Social Commonweal Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology (2002DIA10001).
文摘According to the deficiency of the strain accumulating and releasing curves and the previous models, the strain-accumulating rate of the strain accumulating and releasing model has been deduced based on the G-R relation and the empirical formula between energy release and earthquake magnitude, where the strain-accumulating rate is relative independent of the strain-releasing rate. Five typical areas in Chinese mainland are selected on the basis of the hypothesis on active tectonic block, and small earthquakes from 1970 are imported to calculate the annual strain-accumulating rates considering the completeness of historical seismic data. Having introduced the strain-accumulating rates into the amended model, present strain phases are got. According to the present stages in their own cycles, the future earthquake tendency of each sub-region is discussed.
基金Supported by the Ministry of Education,Science and Technological development,Republic of Serbia, 2011–2020, No. 175042
文摘BACKGROUND Studies exploring suicide mortality on a global scale are sparse,and most evaluations were limited to certain populations.AIM To assess global,regional and national trends of suicide mortality.METHODS Suicide mortality data for the period 2000-2019 were obtained from the mortality database of the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease Study.Age-standardized rates(ASRs;expressed per 100000)were presented.To assess trends of suicide mortality,joinpoint regression analysis was used:The average annual percent change(AAPC)with the corresponding 95%confidence interval(95%CI)was calculated.RESULTS A total of 759028(523883 male and 235145 female)suicide deaths were reported worldwide in 2019.The global ASR of mortality of suicide was 9.0/100000 population in both sexes(12.6 in males vs 5.4 in females).In both sexes,the highest rates were found in the region of Africa(ASR=11.2),while the lowest rates were reported in Eastern Mediterranean(ASR=6.4).Globally,from 2000 to 2019,ASRs of mortality of suicide had a decreasing tendency in both sexes together[AAPC=-2.4%per year;95%CI:(-2.6)-(-2.3)].The region of the Americas experienced a significant increase in suicide mortality over 2000-2019 unlike other regions that had a declining trend.Out of all 133 countries with a decline in suicide mortality,Barbados(AAPC=-10.0%),Grenada(AAPC=-8.5%),Serbia(AAPC=-7.6%),and Venezuela(AAPC=-6.2%)showed the most marked reduction in mortality rates.Out of all 26 countries with a rise in suicide mortality,Lesotho(AAPC=+6.0%),Cyprus(AAPC=+5.1%),Paraguay(AAPC=+3.0%),Saudi Arabia(AAPC=+2.8%),Brunei(AAPC=+2.6%),Greece(AAPC=+2.6%),Georgia(AAPC=+2.1%),and Mexico(AAPC=+2.0%),are among those with the highest increase in mortality.CONCLUSION Decreasing trends in suicide mortality were observed in most countries across the world.Unfortunately,the mortality of suicide showed an increasing trend in a number of populations.Further research should explore the reasons for these unfavorable trends,in order to consider and recommend more efforts for suicide prevention in these countries.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81672005,81001271)the Key Joint Project for Data Center of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1611264)+1 种基金the Mega-Project of National Science and Technology of China(2018ZX10715014002,2014ZX10004008,2013ZX10004901 and 2013ZX10004904)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘Influenza viruses continue to cause epidemics worldwide every year.However,due to the lack of an effective assessment for the severity of influenza epidemics,it was extremely difficult to take preventative measures.Data were extracted from infectious diseases reports from 2011–2018.Joinpoint regression model and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model were built to understand the characteristics and processes of the epidemic.The reported incidence of influenza was 1,913,698 from January 2011 to February 2018,with an average-yearly-reported-incidence-rate of 19.21 per 100,000.However,there had been a substantial nationwide epidemic of influenza after September 2017,when the average yearly reported incidence rate was 87.29 per 100,000 and an annual percentage change of 48.1%.The hemagglutinin genes of most influenza A(H1N1 and H3N2)viruses from the period of the epidemic had lower homology to those before August 2017.All the hemagglutinin of the recommended A(H3N2,H1N1)and B(Victoria)viruses for vaccines 2017/2018 had low matches with the epidemic viruses.The basic reproduction number was 1.53.The vaccination benefit was linearly related to vaccination coverage,while the quarantine measure had only significantly benefited when over 60%of the quarantined population.The most severe epidemic of influenza in China since 2011 occurred during the period from September 2017 to February 2018.Compared to quarantine,influenza vaccination is more effective way to prevent influenza,and strategies to increase vaccination coverage should be taken for the prevention of severe epidemics of influenza.
