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Predicting the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property based on microscale rock mechanical experiments and accurate grain-based modeling 被引量:1
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作者 Shuohui Yin Yingjie Wang Jingang Liu 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第9期1327-1339,共13页
The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribut... The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples. 展开更多
关键词 probability distribution Martian rocks Microscale rock mechanic experiment Nanoindentation Accurate grain-based modeling
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Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea
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作者 GONG Yijie XIE Botao +2 位作者 FU Dianfu WANG Zhifeng PANG Liang 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第3期583-593,共11页
The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields ... The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases. 展开更多
关键词 strong nonlinear wave TYPHOON wave series probability distribution model exceedance probability
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The Cox-Aalen Models as Framework for Construction of Bivariate Probability Distributions, Universal Representation 被引量:1
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作者 Jerzy K. Filus 《Journal of Statistical Science and Application》 2017年第2期56-63,共8页
Starting with the Aalen (1989) version of Cox (1972) 'regression model' we show the method for construction of "any" joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict o... Starting with the Aalen (1989) version of Cox (1972) 'regression model' we show the method for construction of "any" joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given. 展开更多
关键词 Cox model Aalen additive hazards model construction of bivariate probability distributions givenmarginal distributions "joiner" as dependence function "connecting" the marginals general characterization ofbivariate distributions similarity to the copula methodology reliability and biomedical applications
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On the Genesis of the Marshall-Olkin Family of Distributions via the T-X Family Approach: Statistical Modeling
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作者 Yang Zhenwu Zubair Ahmad +1 位作者 Zahra Almaspoor Saima K.Khosa 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2021年第4期753-760,共8页
In the last couple of years,there Has been an increased interest among the statisticians to dene new families of distributions by adding one or more additional parameter(s)to the baseline distribution.In this regard,a... In the last couple of years,there Has been an increased interest among the statisticians to dene new families of distributions by adding one or more additional parameter(s)to the baseline distribution.In this regard,a number of families have been introduced and studied.One such example is the Marshall-Olkin family of distributions that is one of the most prominent approaches used to generalize the existing distributions.Whenever,we see a new method,the natural questions come in to mind are(i)what are the genesis of the newly proposed method and(ii)how did the proposed method is obtained.No doubt,the Marshall-Olkin family is a very useful method and has attracted the researchers.But,unfortunately,the authors failed to provide the explanation about the genesis of the method that how this family of distributions is obtained.To address this issue,in this article,an attempt Has been made to provide a straight forward computation about the genesis of the Marshall-Olkin family that somehow completes its derivation.The genesis of the Marshall-Olkin family is based on the T-X family approach.Furthermore,we have showed that other extensions of the Marshall-Olkin family can also be obtained via the T-X family method.Finally,a real-life application form insurance science is presented to illustrate the newly proposed extension of the Marshall-Olkin family. 展开更多
关键词 family of distributions Marshall-Olkin family T-X family approach statistical modeling
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Locally and globally uniform approximations for ruin probabilities of a nonstandard bidimensional risk model with subexponential claims
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作者 LIU Zai-ming GENG Bing-zhen WANG Shi-jie 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第1期98-113,共16页
Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair... Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is arbitrarily dependent.Under some mild conditions,we achieve a locally uniform approximation of the finite-time ruin probability for all time horizon within a finite interval.If we further assume that each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is negative quadrant dependent and the two classes of claims are consistently-varying-tailed,it shows that the above obtained approximation is also globally uniform for all time horizon within an infinite interval. 展开更多
关键词 bidimensional risk model asymptotic formula subexponential distribution consistently varying tail ruin probability
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Two Probability Plots of the Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution
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作者 蒋仁言 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2014年第6期757-759,共3页
The two-parameter lognormal distribution is a variant of the normal distribution and the three-parameter lognormal distribution is an extension of the two-parameter lognormal distribution by introducing a location par... The two-parameter lognormal distribution is a variant of the normal distribution and the three-parameter lognormal distribution is an extension of the two-parameter lognormal distribution by introducing a location parameter. The Q-Q plot of the three-parameter lognormal distribution is widely used. To obtain the Q-Q plot one needs to iteratively try different values of the shape parameter and subjectively judge the linearity of the Q-Q plot. In this paper,a mathematical method was proposed to determine the value of the shape parameter so as to simplify the generation of the Q-Q plot. Then a new probability plot was proposed,which was more easily obtained and provided more accurate parameter estimates than the Q-Q plot. These are illustrated by three realworld examples. 展开更多
关键词 three-parameter lognormal distribution probability plot correlation coefficient model selection parameter estimation
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A Novel Statistical Delay Model Based on the Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution for RLC Interconnects in 90nm Technologies
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作者 周磊 孙玲玲 蒋立飞 《Journal of Semiconductors》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第7期1313-1317,共5页
For performance optimization such as placement,interconnect synthesis,and routing, an efficient and accurate interconnect delay metric is critical,even in design tools development like design for yield (DFY) and des... For performance optimization such as placement,interconnect synthesis,and routing, an efficient and accurate interconnect delay metric is critical,even in design tools development like design for yield (DFY) and design for manufacture (DFM). In the nanometer regime, the recently proposed delay models for RLC interconnects based on statistical probability density function (PDF)interpretation such as PRIMO,H-gamma,WED and RLD bridge the gap between accuracy and efficiency. However, these models always require table look-up when operating. In this paper, a novel delay model based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution (BSD) is presented. BSD can accomplish interconnect delay estimation fast and accurately without table look-up operations. Furthermore, it only needs the first two moments to match. Experimental results in 90nm technology show that BSD is robust, easy to implement,efficient,and accurate. 展开更多
关键词 delay model INTERCONNECT MOMENT probability distribution function
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Computational Precision of the Power Function for Conditional Tests of Assumptions of the Rasch Model
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作者 Clemens Draxler Jan Philipp Nolte 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2018年第6期873-884,共12页
Draxler and Zessin [1] derived the power function for a class of conditional tests of assumptions of a psychometric model known as the Rasch model and suggested an MCMC approach developed by Verhelst [2] for the numer... Draxler and Zessin [1] derived the power function for a class of conditional tests of assumptions of a psychometric model known as the Rasch model and suggested an MCMC approach developed by Verhelst [2] for the numerical approximation of the power of the tests. In this contribution, the precision of the Verhelst approach is investigated and compared with an exact sampling procedure proposed by Miller and Harrison [3] for which the discrete probability distribution to be sampled from is exactly known. Results show no substantial differences between the two numerical procedures and quite accurate power computations. Regarding the question of computing time the Verhelst approach will have to be considered much more efficient. 展开更多
关键词 CONDITIONAL Tests CONDITIONAL probability distribution HYPERGEOMETRIC distribution Power Function Random Sampling RASCH model
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The Equilibrium Distribution of Counting Random Variables
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作者 Shuanming Li 《Open Journal of Discrete Mathematics》 2011年第3期127-135,共9页
We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. E... We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. Expressions are obtained for higher order equilibrium distribution functions under mixtures and convolutions of a counting distribution. Recursive formulas for higher order equilibrium distribution functions of the (a,b,0) -family of distributions are given. 展开更多
关键词 COUNTING Random Variable Equilibrium distribution Stop-Loss Transform Mean Residual Life (a b 0) family RECURSIVE FORMULAS probability GENERATING Function
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On the Relationship between Statistical and Phenomenological Models of the Thermodynamic Systems
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作者 Igor Samkhan 《Journal of Modern Physics》 2013年第7期38-44,共7页
The paper deals with the performing of a critical analysis of the problems arising in matching the classical models of the statistical and phenomenological thermodynamics. The performed analysis shows that some concep... The paper deals with the performing of a critical analysis of the problems arising in matching the classical models of the statistical and phenomenological thermodynamics. The performed analysis shows that some concepts of the statistical and phenomenological methods of describing the classical systems do not quite correlate with each other. Particularly, in these methods various caloric ideal gas equations of state are employed, while the possibility existing in the thermodynamic cyclic processes to obtain the same distributions both due to a change of the particle concentration and owing to a change of temperature is not allowed for in the statistical methods. The above-mentioned difference of the equations of state is cleared away when using in the statistical functions corresponding to the canonical Gibbs equations instead of the Planck’s constant a new scale factor that depends on the parameters of a system and coincides with the Planck’s constant in going of the system to the degenerate state. Under such an approach, the statistical entropy is transformed into one of the forms of heat capacity. In its turn, the agreement of the methods under consideration in the question as to the dependence of the molecular distributions on the concentration of particles, apparently, will call for further refinement of the physical model of ideal gas and the techniques for its statistical description. 展开更多
关键词 theRMODYNAMICS CLASSICAL Systems Description models STATISTICAL Functions Phase Space probability distribution Particle Concentration
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Establishment Method of a Mixture Model and Its Practical Application for Transmission Gears in an Engineering Vehicle 被引量:6
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作者 WANG Jixin WANG Zhenyu +3 位作者 YU Xiangjun YAO Mingyao YAO Zongwei ZHANG Erping 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2012年第5期1001-1010,共10页
Highly versatile machines, such as wheel loaders, forklifts, and mining haulers, are subject to many kinds of working conditions, as well as indefinite factors that lead to the complexity of the load. The load probabi... Highly versatile machines, such as wheel loaders, forklifts, and mining haulers, are subject to many kinds of working conditions, as well as indefinite factors that lead to the complexity of the load. The load probability distribution function (PDF) of transmission gears has many distributions centers; thus, its PDF cannot be well represented by just a single-peak function. For the purpose of representing the distribution characteristics of the complicated phenomenon accurately, this paper proposes a novel method to establish a mixture model. Based on linear regression models and correlation coefficients, the proposed method can be used to automatically select the best-fitting function in the mixture model. Coefficient of determination, the mean square error, and the maximum deviation are chosen and then used as judging criteria to describe the fitting precision between the theoretical distribution and the corresponding histogram of the available load data. The applicability of this modeling method is illustrated by the field testing data of a wheel loader. Meanwhile, the load spectra based on the mixture model are compiled. The comparison results show that the mixture model is more suitable for the description of the load-distribution characteristics. The proposed research improves the flexibility and intelligence of modeling, reduces the statistical error and enhances the fitting accuracy, and the load spectra complied by this method can better reflect the actual load characteristic of the gear component. 展开更多
关键词 mixture distribution model probability distribution function correlation coefficient load spectra wheel loader
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Coupling effects of influence factors on probability of corrosion initiation time of reinforced concrete 被引量:6
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作者 张小刚 赵衍刚 +1 位作者 邢锋 卢朝辉 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第1期223-229,共7页
The coupling model of major influence factors such state affecting the chloride diffusion process in concrete is as environmental relative humidity, load-induced crack and stress discussed. The probability distributio... The coupling model of major influence factors such state affecting the chloride diffusion process in concrete is as environmental relative humidity, load-induced crack and stress discussed. The probability distributions of the critical chloride concentration Cc, the chloride diffusion coefficient D, and the surface chloride concentration Cs were determined based on the collected natural exposure data. And the estimation of probability of corrosion initiation considering the coupling effects of influence factors is presented. It is found that the relative humidity and curing time are the most effective factors affecting the probability of corrosion initiation before and after 10 years of exposure time. At the same exposure time, the influence of load-induced crack and stress state on the probability of corrosion initiation is obvious, in which the effect of crack is the most one 展开更多
关键词 reinforced concrete corrosion initiation time coupling influence model influence factors natural exposure data probability distribution
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An Improved Method for Estimating the Transition Probability Using Diameter Growth in Even-aged Forest Stands 被引量:1
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作者 Jia Naiguang Kang Huining Xu SongDepartment of Foundation Courses. Beijing Forestry University 《北京林业大学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 1992年第S2期47-54,共8页
The method of Zeng et al. (1991) employed diameter growth to estimate the transition probability of the matrix model in uneven-aged forest stands. In this paper the Weibull distribution for even-aged forest stands ins... The method of Zeng et al. (1991) employed diameter growth to estimate the transition probability of the matrix model in uneven-aged forest stands. In this paper the Weibull distribution for even-aged forest stands instead of uniform distribution chosen by Zeng is used. By comparing the results of the improved method with those of the original method of Zeng, it turns out that the improved method of Zeng given in this paper is more efficient. 展开更多
关键词 even-aged FOREST STANDS matrix model transition probability parameter estimation UNIFORM distribution Weibull distribution
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A Study of Wind Statistics Through Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) Modeling 被引量:1
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作者 John Z.YIM(尹彰) +1 位作者 ChunRen CHOU(周宗仁) 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI 2001年第1期61-72,共12页
Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simu... Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simulated results of the Auto-Regressive (AR), Moving-Average (MA), and/ or Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) models is studied. Predictions of the 25-year extreme wind speeds based upon the augmented data are compared with the original series. Based upon the results, predictions of the 50- and 100-year extreme wind speeds are then made. 展开更多
关键词 Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) modeling probability distributions extreme wind speeds
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MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MARKOV CHAIN–BASED ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT PROBABILITY FOR SPECTRUM RESOURCE SHARING
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作者 张轶 喻莉 张利维 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第1期207-215,共9页
In this paper, we consider the optimal problem of channels sharing with het-erogeneous traffic (real-time service and non-real-time service) to reduce the data conflict probability of users. Moreover, a multi-dimens... In this paper, we consider the optimal problem of channels sharing with het-erogeneous traffic (real-time service and non-real-time service) to reduce the data conflict probability of users. Moreover, a multi-dimensional Markov chain model is developed to analyze the performance of the proposed scheme. Meanwhile, performance metrics are derived. Numerical results show that the proposed scheme can effectively reduce the forced termination probability, blocking probability and spectrum utilization. 展开更多
关键词 multi-dimensional Markov chain model independent Poisson process negative exponential distribution forced termination probability blocking probability
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Slant Range Distribution Characteristics of Submarine Launch Mobile Mine
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作者 冷相文 张旭 +1 位作者 赵晓哲 刘晓华 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 SCIE EI CAS 2010年第4期258-261,共4页
With the bias between the predetermined planting location and the fact mine position,slant range of SLMM(submarine launch mobile mine)appears randomly scattered.The normal distribution model of slant range was propose... With the bias between the predetermined planting location and the fact mine position,slant range of SLMM(submarine launch mobile mine)appears randomly scattered.The normal distribution model of slant range was proposed by the distribution theory of multivariate random variables,and the simplified model based on key parameters was present,and the laws of slant range distribution parameters such as mean and variance were given,which were affected by key parameters.The conclusions ensure that slant range of SLMM can be controlled when laying mines and provide the basis for tactical decision-making. 展开更多
关键词 probability theory SLMM slant range distribution model mine-laying decision
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TESTING FOR VARYING DISPERSION IN DISCRETE EXPONENTIAL FAMILY NONLINEAR MODELS
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作者 LinJinguan WeiBocheng ZhangNansong 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2003年第3期294-302,共9页
It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models.Wei,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponent... It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models.Wei,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponential family nonlinear models.This type of problem in the framework of general discrete exponential family nonlinear models is discussed.Two types of varying dispersion,which are random coefficients model and random effects model,are proposed,and corresponding score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple,easy to use,matrix formulas. 展开更多
关键词 discrete exponential family distribution generalized nonlinear model random coefficients random effects score test varying dispersion
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Enhancement of density divergence in an insect outbreak model driven by colored noise
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作者 肖荣 王参军 张林 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2012年第11期121-125,共5页
The steady states and the transient properties of an insect outbreak model driven by Gaussian colored noise are studied in this paper. According to the Fokker-Planck equation in the unified colored-noise approximation... The steady states and the transient properties of an insect outbreak model driven by Gaussian colored noise are studied in this paper. According to the Fokker-Planck equation in the unified colored-noise approximation, we analyse the stationary probability distribution and the mean first-passage time of this model. By numerical analysis, the effects of the self-correlation time of insect birth rate and predation rate respectively reveal a manifest population divergence on the insect density. The decrease of the mean first-passage time indicates an enhancement dynamic on the density divergency with colored noise of a large self-correlation time based on the insect outbreak model. 展开更多
关键词 colored noise insect outbreak model stationary probability distribution function meanfirst-passage time
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Fluctuation-Model-Based Discrete Probability Estimation for Small Samples
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作者 Takashi Isozaki 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2015年第5期465-474,共10页
A robust method is proposed for estimating discrete probability functions for small samples. The proposed approach introduces and minimizes a parameterized objective function that is analogous to free energy functions... A robust method is proposed for estimating discrete probability functions for small samples. The proposed approach introduces and minimizes a parameterized objective function that is analogous to free energy functions in statistical physics. A key feature of the method is a model of the parameter that controls the trade-off between likelihood and robustness in response to the degree of fluctuation. The method thus does not require the value of the parameter to be manually selected. It is proved that the estimator approaches the maximum likelihood estimator at the asymptotic limit. The effectiveness of the method in terms of robustness is demonstrated by experimental studies on point estimation for probability distributions with various entropies. 展开更多
关键词 probability Estimation FLUCTUATION models HELMHOLTZ Free Energy CANONICAL distributionS
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Test of Strain Behavior Model with Radon Anomaly in Seismogenic Area: A Bayesian Melding Approach
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作者 Pushan Kumar Dutta Mrinal Kanti Naskar O. P. Mishra 《International Journal of Geosciences》 2012年第1期126-132,共7页
Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions ... Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock. 展开更多
关键词 RADON DETERMINISTIC model probability distribution Strain BAYESIAN Melding SEISMOGENIC Layer EARTHQUAKE Prediction
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