Discussion on the paper “Analyzing short time series data from periodically fluctuating rodent populations by threshold models: A nearestblock bootstrap approach”

The authors are to be congratulated for an innovative paper in terms of both modelling methodology and subject matter significance. The analysis of short time series is known to be

Discussion on the paper “Analyzing short time series data from periodically fluctuating rodent populations by threshold models: A nearestblock bootstrap approach”

This is a very attractive article. It combines fascinating new methodology with a most interesting dataset, and a highly motivating presentation. However, despite the many

Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events

-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are respectively 0. 84, 0. 88 and 0. 89. It is obvious that all the models work well and the open loop threshold one is the best. So the open loop threshold autoregression model is a useful tool for monitoring the SSTinterannual variation of the cold tongue water area in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and for estimating the El Nino strength.

Research on the Digital Economy's Impact on China's Economic Growth:Based on the Variations in Urbanization Levels Across China's Eastern,Central,and Western Regions and Sectoral Heterogeneity

This paper uses inter-provincial panel data from 2011 to 2017,a linear regression model,and a threshold model to conduct empirical analyses of the impact of the digital economy on China's overall economic growth and the three main sectors of industry.The paper then investigates the impact and effects the digital economy has had on the economic growth of the three main sectors of industry in China's eastern,central,and western regions.Finally,the paper investigates the most significant differences among the various regions and the threshold effects of urbanization levels on the relationship between the digital economy and economic growth.The findings indicate a significantly positive correlation between the digital economy and regional economic growth.Moreover,geographical factors notably influence this correlation.The digital economy exerts a positive effect on all sectors of industry.It may not substantially impact industrial development in regions with highly developed infrastructure.Regarding the other regions,the digital economy exhibits varying degrees of impact due to the differences in the specific indicators.The conclusion drawn by the threshold model is that the magnitude of the threshold effect correlates with geographic factors.No threshold effect was observed in the eastern region,while the threshold effect occurred in the central region when the urbanization levels for the provinces were below 0.6645.Similarly,the threshold effect was noted in the western region when the urbanization level was below 0.3931.Considering all of this,the study also offers policy recommendations that will help balance the regional development of digital economies,accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries,enhance digital infrastructure construction,refine the formulation and implementation of data policy,and establish relevant incentive mechanisms.

Impacts of agri-food e-commerce on traditional wholesale industry:Evidence from China

Rapidly expanding studies investigate the effects of e-commerce on company operations in the retail market.However,the interaction between agri-food e-commerce(AEC)and the traditional agri-food wholesale industry(AWI)has not received enough attention in the existing literature.Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020 in China,this paper examines the effect of AEC on AWI,comprising three dimensions:digitalization(DIGITAL),agrifood e-commerce infrastructure and supporting services(AECI),and agri-food e-commerce economy(AECE).First,AWI and AEC are measured using an entropy-based combination of indicators.The results indicate that for China as a whole,AWI has remained practically unchanged,whereas AEC exhibits a significant rising trend.Second,the findings of the fixed-effect regression reveal that DIGITAL and AECE tend to raise AWI,whereas AECI negatively affects AWI.Third,threshold regression results indicate that AECI tends to diminish AWI with three-stage inhibitory intensity,which manifests as a first increase and then a drop in the inhibition degree.These results suggest that with the introduction of e-commerce for agricultural product circulation,digital development will have catfish effects that tend to stimulate the vitality of the conventional wholesale industry and promote technical progress.Furthermore,the traditional wholesale industry benefits financially from e-commerce even while it diverts part of the traditional wholesale circulation for agricultural products.

Does China's digital economy contribute to low-carbon transition?

The digital economy,as a new emerging economic form,has become an important power for realizing Chinese-style modernization and promoting green development in China.This paper measures the digital economy and low-carbon transition index based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2020 and analyzes the mechanism and path of the digital economy affecting low-carbon transition using the fixed effect panel data model and the threshold effect model.It is found that,(1)The digital economy and low-carbon transition in China are various in different regions,with characteristics of being unbalanced and insufficient.(2)The digital economy significantly promotes low-carbon transition,with the greatest influence in the Central region,followed by the Eastern region and the Western region.Under different dimensions,the development of informatization and digital transactions promote low-carbon transition,but the development of the internet plays an inhibiting role.(3)The higher the degree of urbanization and environmental regulation,the greater the influence of the digital economy on low-carbon transition.

Evaluation of Models for Longevity in a Closed Nucleus Breeding Programme: A Case Study Kenyan Sahiwal

Longevity and stay ability are parameters in any breeding programme. The Overstaying of any animal on a farm has got negative effects on the farmer. Short stay also means early exit of good animals that could have been used for a longer time and more productive. The intention of this review paper is to emphasize the importance of models that an upcoming breeding program can use without affecting the quality of the herd. In this paper, longevity is taken purely on the performance measure. The functional and type traits of longevity should be studied further before all models are put into play. But the case of closed breeding programmes, performance traits are easily measurable because many animals will exit the herd as they have been sold to farmers hence many functional straits will be expressed outside the herd. Genetic evaluation of the Kenyan Sahiwal should account for inbreeding. This study has also provided genetic and phenotypic parameters to enable the inclusion of longevity in the breeding objective for the Sahiwal cattle improvement programme.

3D random Voronoi grain-based models for simulation of brittle rock damage and fabric-guided micro-fracturing

A grain-based distinct element model featuring three-dimensional （3D） Voronoi tessellations （randompoly-crystals） is proposed for simulation of crack damage development in brittle rocks. The grainboundaries in poly-crystal structure produced by Voronoi tessellations can represent flaws in intact rockand allow for numerical replication of crack damage progression through initiation and propagation ofmicro-fractures along grain boundaries. The Voronoi modelling scheme has been used widely in the pastfor brittle fracture simulation of rock materials. However the difficulty of generating 3D Voronoi modelshas limited its application to two-dimensional （2D） codes. The proposed approach is implemented inNeper, an open-source engine for generation of 3D Voronoi grains, to generate block geometry files thatcan be read directly into 3DEC. A series of Unconfined Compressive Strength （UCS） tests are simulated in3DEC to verify the proposed methodology for 3D simulation of brittle fractures and to investigate therelationship between each micro-parameter and the model＇s macro-response. The possibility of numericalreplication of the classical U-shape strength curve for anisotropic rocks is also investigated innumerical UCS tests by using complex-shaped （elongated） grains that are cemented to one another alongtheir adjoining sides. A micro-parameter calibration procedure is established for 3D Voronoi models foraccurate replication of the mechanical behaviour of isotropic and anisotropic （containing a fabric） rocks. 2014 Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Production and hosting byElsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error Threshold of Fully Random Eigen Model

Species evolution is essentially a random process of interaction between biological populations and their environ- ments. As a result, some physical parameters in evolution models are subject to statistical fluctuations. In this work, two important parameters in the Eigen model, the fitness and mutation rate, are treated as Gaassian dis- tributed random variables simultaneously to examine the property of the error threshold. Numerical simulation results show that the error threshold in the fully random model appears as a crossover region instead of a phase transition point, and ＆s the fluctuation strength increases the crossover region becomes smoother and smoother. Furthermore, it is shown that the randomization of the mutation rate plays a dominant role in changing the error threshold in the fully random model, which is consistent with the existing experimental data. The implication of the threshold change due to the randomization for antiviral strategies is discussed.

Tourism dependence and poverty alleviation thresholds in Chinese ethnic tourism

Questions persist on the relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth in ethnic tourism areas.This study addresses such gaps by constructing a threshold regression model based on socio-economic data from 2006 to 2019 for nine sites in Enshi Prefecture of central China.Arc GIS and other open-source data were also used to visualize changing tourism resources in the region.Findings suggest that tourism dependence(the ratio of tourism-based GDP to overall GDP)significantly promotes economic growth in ethnic minority areas.However,the positive influence of tourism dependence on economic growth appears dynamic and non-linear–rising at first before falling when tourism dependence exceeded a threshold of 34%,with effects varying by site and year.Methods and findings make crucial theoretical contributions to understanding tourism dependence and poverty alleviation linkages.This paper also highlights the importance of political support and balanced investment in diverse industries to minimize decreasing returns beyond tourism dependence thresholds in destinations worldwide.

Application of the Mechanical Threshold Stress Model to Large Strain Processing

Large-strain deformations introduce several confounding factors that affect the application of the Mechanical Threshold Stress model. These include the decrease with the increasing stress of the normalized activation energy characterizing deformation kinetics, the tendency toward Stage IV hardening at high strains, and the influence of crystallographic texture. Minor additions to the Mechanical Threshold Stress model are introduced to account for variations of the activation energy and the addition of Stage IV hardening. Crystallographic texture cannot be modeled using an isotropic formulation, but some common trends when analyzing predominantly shear deformation followed by uniaxial deformation are described. Comparisons of model predictions with measurements in copper processed using Equal Channel Angular Pressing are described.

The impact of political connections on firm pollution: New evidence based on heterogeneous environmental regulation

Increasing attention has been focused on the extent to which corporate political connections influence the growing pollution due to the rapid growth in the popularity of firm pollution in developing countries.We adopt a static threshold regression model to investigate the effects of heterogeneous environmental regulation on political connections and firm pollution based on the panel data from China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2019.The empirical results show a non-linear relationship between the degree of political connection of listed company executives and the level of firm pollution.And the relationship between the two roughly presents a U-shaped relationship under the action of the marketincentive environmental regulation threshold.However,it roughly presents an inverted N-shaped relationship under the action of the command-control environmental regulation threshold.Additionally,the group test results show that the existence of regional and ownership heterogeneity causes certain differences in the environmental behaviour of politically connected enterprises.These findings indicate that diverse environmental regulations are needed to promote sustainable green development and to further expand the theoretical and practical exploration of political connections on firm pollution.

Reliability modeling of mutual DCFP considering failure physical dependency

Degradation and overstress failures occur in many electronic systems in which the operation load and environmental conditions are complex.The dependency of them called dependent competing failure process(DCFP),has been widely studied.Electronic system may experience mutual effects of degradation and shocks,they are considered to be interdependent.Both the degradation and the shock processes will decrease the limit of system and cause cumulative effect.Finally,the competition of hard and soft failure will cause the system failure.Based on the failure mechanism accumulation theory,this paper constructs the shock-degradation acceleration and the threshold descent model,and a system reliability model established by using these two models.The mutually DCFP effect of electronic system interaction has been decomposed into physical correlation of failure,including acceleration,accumulation and competition.As a case,a reliability of electronic system in aeronautical system has been analyzed with the proposed method.The method proposed is based on failure physical evaluation,and could provide important reference for quantitative evaluation and design improvement of the newly designed system in case of data deficiency.

Statistical Inference for Self-Exciting Threshold INAR Processes with Missing Values

The time series model with threshold characteristics under fully observations has been explored intensively in recent years.In this article,several methods are proposed to estimate the parameters of the self-exciting threshold integer-valued autoregressive(SETINAR(2,1))process in the presence of completely random missing data.In order to dispose of the non-equidistance in the observed data,we research the conditional least squares and conditional maximum likelihood inference based on the p-stepahead conditional distribution of incomplete observations;in addition,three kinds of imputation methods are investigated to deal with the missing values for estimating the parameters of interest.Multiple groups of stochastic simulation studies are carried out to compare the proposed approaches.

A Study on the Relationship Between Land Finance and Housing Price in Urbanization Process: An Empirical Analysis of 182 Cities in China Based on Threshold Panel Models

Scholars have a variety of theoretical explanations for housing price growth. However, few scholars have studied the internal influence mechanism among urbanization, land finance, and housing price. Based on the data of 182 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2016, this paper studies the influence of land finance on housing price under different urbanization rate levels. The study finds that with the increase of urbanization rate, the effect of land finance on housing price presents a "U" shape.Specifically, an increase in land finance by 1% results in a corresponding increase in average housing price by 0.18%, with relatively low urbanization rate, 0.06% with medium level of urbanization rate,and 0.38% with high level of urbanization rate.

ANALYSIS OF AN SIS EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODEL WITH VARIABLE POPULATION SIZE AND A DELAY

Epidemiologic model of SIS type has a delay corresponding to the infectious period and disease related deaths,so that the population size is variable.The population dynamics structure is recruitment and natural births with natural deaths.The incidence term is of the standard incidence.Here the thresholds and equilibria are detemined,and stabilities are examined.The persistence of the infectious disease and disease related deaths can lead to a new equilibrium population size below the carrying capacity.

θ-improved limited tolerance relation model of incomplete information system for evaluation of water conservancy project management modernization

The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological effects, and so on. However, indices for evaluating the modernization of water conservancy project management are usually unobtainable in practical applications. Conducting appropriate extension of the classical rough set theory and then applying it to an incomplete information system are the key to the application of the rough set theory Based on analysis of some extended rough set models in incomplete information systems, a rough set model based on the θ-improved limited tolerance relation is put forward. At the same time, upper approximation and lower approximation are defined under this improved relation. According to the evaluation index system and management practices, the threshold for θ is defined. An example study indicates the practicability and maneuverability of the model.

Impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment on environmental pollution in the home country

In the context of economic globalization and increasingly tight resource and environmental constraints,the environmental effect of open economy has been highly concerned by the academic community.With the implementation of the“Going Global”campaign and the“Belt and Road Initiative”,China’s OFDI has been expanding.What is the impact of the rapid growth of OFDI on the home environment?How can China improve the quality and level of OFDI in order to promote domestic green development under the dual context of constructing a new dual circulation development pattern and advocating green development?These questions deserve further discussion.Most of the existing literature focuses on the empirical interpretation of OFDI’s home country environmental effect by using linear models,while few involve nonlinear models.The literature on the important role of financial development in home country and the threshold effect of OFDI on home country environment is even less common.In view of this,based on the mechanism of argumentation and propositional inference,this paper calculated the environmental pollution index of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017 by using China’s provincial panel data of these years and selecting industrial waste water,industrial waste gas,industrial SO_(2),and industrial soot emissions and industrial solid waste production amount index.Then,this paper empirically studied China's OFDI home environment of financial development threshold effect by constructing financial development as the threshold variables panel threshold model.The results showed that:①China’s OFDI had a significant impact on the environment of the home country,based on the level of financial development of the home country.When China’s financial development level was lower than the first threshold value,China’s OFDI had a significant restraining effect on environmental pollution in the home country.When China’s financial development level crossed the first threshold value but did not exceed the second threshold value,China’s OFDI significantly enhanced its inhibiting effect on environmental pollution in its home country.When China’s financial development level was higher than the second threshold value,the inhibiting effect of China’s OFDI on environmental pollution in the home country was further enhanced.②In the sample period,the financial development level of most provinces in China was not high.Only a few provinces with high financial development level had a strong inhibiting effect on environmental pollution in their home country,and the provinces with a high degree of coupling and coordination between OFDI and financial development tended to have a low level of environmental pollution.Accordingly,this paper proposes to optimize the financial service environment of OFDI,improve the green technology content of OFDI,and strengthen the original innovation and re-innovation ability of green technology.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.

Genetic relationship between purebred and crossbred sow longevity

Background： The overall breeding objective for a nucleus swine selection program is to improve crossbred commercial performance. Most genetic improvement programs are based on an assumed high degree of positive relationship between purebred performance in a nucleus herd and their relatives＇ crossbred performance in a commercial herd. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between purebred and crossbred sow longevity performance. Sow longevity was defined as a binary trait with a success occurring if a sow remained in the herd for a certain number of parities and including the cumulative number born alive as a measure of reproductive success. Heritabilities, genetic correlations, and phenotypic correlations were estimated using THRGIBBS1F90.Results： Results indicated little to no genetic correlations between crossbred and purebred reproductive traits.This indicates that selection for longevity or lifetime performance at the nucleus level may not result in improved longevity and lifetime performance at the crossbred level. Early parity performance was highly correlated with lifetime performance indicating that an indicator trait at an early parity could be used to predict lifetime performance. This would allow a sow to have her own record for the selection trait before she has been removed from the herd.Conclusions： Results from this study aid in quantifying the relationship between purebred and crossbred performance and provide information for genetic companies to consider when developing a selection program where the objective is to improve crossbred sow performance. Utilizing crossbred records in a selection program would be the best way to improve crossbred sow productivity.