Fractal model of spontaneous imbibition in low-permeability reservoirs coupled with heterogeneity of pore seepage channels and threshold pressure

Spontaneous imbibition(SI)is an important mechanism for enhancing oil recovery in low-permeability reservoirs.Due to the strong heterogeneity,and the non-Darcy flow,the construction of SI model for lowpermeability reservoirs is extremely challenging.Commonly,traditional SI models based on single or averaged capillary tortuosity ignore the influence of heterogeneity of pore seepage channels and the threshold pressure(TP)on imbibition.Therefore,in this work,based on capillary model and fractal theory,a mathematical model of characterizing SI considering heterogeneity of pore seepage channels is established.On this basis,the threshold pressure was introduced to determine the pore radius at which the wetted phase can displace oil.The proposed new SI model was verified by imbibition experimental data.The study shows that for weakly heterogeneous cores with permeability of 0-1 m D,the traditional SI model can characterize the imbibition process relatively accurately,and the new imbibition model can increase the coefficient of determination by 1.05 times.However,traditional model has serious deviations in predicting the imbibition recovery for cores with permeability of 10-50 m D.The new SI model coupling with heterogeneity of pore seepage channels and threshold pressure effectively solves this problem,and the determination coefficient is increased from 0.344 to 0.922,which is increased by2.68 times.For low-permeability reservoirs,the production of the oil in transitional pores(0.01-0.1μm)and mesopores(0.1-1μm)significantly affects the imbibition recovery,as the research shows that when the heterogeneity of pore seepage channels is ignored,the oil recovery in transitional pores and mesopores decreases by 7.54%and 4.26%,respectively.Sensitivity analysis shows that increasing interfacial tension,decreasing contact angle,oil-water viscosity ratio and threshold pressure will increase imbibition recovery.In addition,there are critical values for the influence of these factors on the imbibition recovery,which provides theoretical support for surfactant optimization.

Novel damage constitutive models and new quantitative identification method for stress thresholds of rocks under uniaxial compression

Four key stress thresholds exist in the compression process of rocks,i.e.,crack closure stress(σ_(cc)),crack initiation stress(σ_(ci)),crack damage stress(σ_(cd))and compressive strength(σ_(c)).The quantitative identifications of the first three stress thresholds are of great significance for characterizing the microcrack growth and damage evolution of rocks under compression.In this paper,a new method based on damage constitutive model is proposed to quantitatively measure the stress thresholds of rocks.Firstly,two different damage constitutive models were constructed based on acoustic emission(AE)counts and Weibull distribution function considering the compaction stages of the rock and the bearing capacity of the damage element.Then,the accumulative AE counts method(ACLM),AE count rate method(CRM)and constitutive model method(CMM)were introduced to determine the stress thresholds of rocks.Finally,the stress thresholds of 9 different rocks were identified by ACLM,CRM,and CMM.The results show that the theoretical stress−strain curves obtained from the two damage constitutive models are in good agreement with that of the experimental data,and the differences between the two damage constitutive models mainly come from the evolutionary differences of the damage variables.The results of the stress thresholds identified by the CMM are in good agreement with those identified by the AE methods,i.e.,ACLM and CRM.Therefore,the proposed CMM can be used to determine the stress thresholds of rocks.

Application of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Wuhan,China

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

A Study of Wind Statistics Through Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) Modeling

Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simulated results of the Auto-Regressive (AR), Moving-Average (MA), and/ or Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) models is studied. Predictions of the 25-year extreme wind speeds based upon the augmented data are compared with the original series. Based upon the results, predictions of the 50- and 100-year extreme wind speeds are then made.

Parametric SNR Estimation Based on Auto-Regressive Model in AWGN Channels

Signal-to-noise ratio（SNR）estimation for signal which can be modeled by Auto-regressive（AR）process is studied in this paper.First,the conventional frequency domain method is introduced to estimate the SNR for the received signal in additive white Gauss noise（AWGN）channel.Then a parametric SNR estimation algorithm is proposed by taking advantage of the AR model information of the received signal.The simulation results show that the proposed parametric method has better performance than the conventional frequency doma in method in case of AWGN channel.

Optimal zero-crossing group selection method of the absolute gravimeter based on improved auto-regressive moving average model

An absolute gravimeter is a precision instrument for measuring gravitational acceleration, which plays an important role in earthquake monitoring, crustal deformation, national defense construction, etc. The frequency of laser interference fringes of an absolute gravimeter gradually increases with the fall time. Data are sparse in the early stage and dense in the late stage. The fitting accuracy of gravitational acceleration will be affected by least-squares fitting according to the fixed number of zero-crossing groups. In response to this problem, a method based on Fourier series fitting is proposed in this paper to calculate the zero-crossing point. The whole falling process is divided into five frequency bands using the Hilbert transformation. The multiplicative auto-regressive moving average model is then trained according to the number of optimal zero-crossing groups obtained by the honey badger algorithm. Through this model, the number of optimal zero-crossing groups determined in each segment is predicted by the least-squares fitting. The mean value of gravitational acceleration in each segment is then obtained. The method can improve the accuracy of gravitational measurement by more than 25% compared to the fixed zero-crossing groups method. It provides a new way to improve the measuring accuracy of an absolute gravimeter.

Application of Auto-regressive Linear Model in Understanding the Effect of Climate on Malaria Vectors Dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir

It is important to understand the dynamics of malaria vectors in implementing malaria control strategies. Six villages were selected from different sections in the Three Gorges Reservoir fc,r exploring the relationship between the climatic ｜：actors and its malaria vector density from 1997 to 2007 using the auto-regressive linear model regressi^n method. The result indicated that both temperature and precipitation were better modeled as quadratic rather than linearly related to the density of Anopheles sinensis.

Irregular seismic data reconstruction based on exponential threshold model of POCS method

Irregular seismic data causes problems with multi-trace processing algorithms and degrades processing quality. We introduce the Projection onto Convex Sets （POCS） based image restoration method into the seismic data reconstruction field to interpolate irregularly missing traces. For entire dead traces, we transfer the POCS iteration reconstruction process from the time to frequency domain to save computational cost because forward and reverse Fourier time transforms are not needed. In each iteration, the selection threshold parameter is important for reconstruction efficiency. In this paper, we designed two types of threshold models to reconstruct irregularly missing seismic data. The experimental results show that an exponential threshold can greatly reduce iterations and improve reconstruction efficiency compared to a linear threshold for the same reconstruction result. We also analyze the anti- noise and anti-alias ability of the POCS reconstruction method. Finally, theoretical model tests and real data examples indicate that the proposed method is efficient and applicable.

Maneuvering target tracking using threshold interacting multiple model algorithm

To avoid missing track caused by the target maneuvers in automatic target tracking system, a new maneuvering target tracking technique called threshold interacting multiple model （TIMM） is proposed. This algorithm is based on the interacting multiple model （IMM） method and applies a threshold controller to improve tracking accuracy. It is also applicable to other advanced algorithms of IMM. In this research, we also compare the position and velocity root mean square （RMS） errors of TIMM and IMM algorithms with two different examples. Simulation results show that the TIMM algorithm is superior to the traditional IMM alzorithm in estimation accuracy.

Short Term Load Forecasting Using Subset Threshold Auto Regressive Model

The subset threshold auto regressive (SSTAR) model, which is capable of reproducing the limit cycle behavior of nonlinear time series, is introduced. The algorithm for fitting the sampled data with SSTAR model is proposed and applied to model and forecast power load. Numerical example verifies that desirable accuracy of short term load forecasting can be achieved by using the SSTAR model.

Thermal damage constitutive model for rock considering damage threshold and residual strength

With the gradual depletion of mineral resources in the shallow part of the earth,resource exploitation continues to move deeper into the earth,it becomes a hot topic to simulate the whole process of rock strain softening,deformation and failure in deep environment,especially under high temperature and high pressure.On the basis of Lemaitre’s strain-equivalent principle,combined with statistics and damage theory,a statistical constitutive model of rock thermal damage under triaxial compression condition is established.At the same time,taking into account the existing damage model is difficult to reflect residual strength after rock failure,the residual strength is considered in this paper by introducing correction factor of damage variable,the model rationality is also verified by experiments.Analysis of results indicates that the damage evolution curve reflects the whole process of rock micro-cracks enclosure,initiation,expansion,penetration,and the formation of macro-cracks under coupled effect of temperature and confining pressure.Rock thermal damage shows logistic growth function with the increase of temperature.Under the same strain condition,rock total damage decreases with the rise of confining pressure.By studying the electron microscope images(SEM)of rock fracture,it is inferred that 35.40 MPa is the critical confining pressure of brittle to plastic transition for this granite.The model parameter F reflects the average strength of rock,and M reflects the morphological characteristics of rock stress–strain curves.The physical meanings of model parameters are clear and the model is suitable for complex stress states,which provides valuable references for the study of rock deformation and stability in deep engineering.

Compact Threshold Voltage Model for FinFETs

A 2D analytical electrostatics analysis for the cross-section of a FinFET (or tri-gate MOSFET) is performed to calculate the threshold voltage.The analysis results in a modified gate capacitance with a coefficient H introduced to model the effect of tri-gates and its asymptotic behavior in 2D is that for double-gate MOSFET.The potential profile obtained analytically at the cross-section agrees well with numerical simulations.A compact threshold voltage model for FinFET,comprising quantum mechanical effects,is then proposed.It is concluded that both gate capacitance and threshold voltage will increase with a decreased height,or a decreased gate-oxide thickness of the top gate,which is a trend in FinFET design.

Settlement Prediction for Buildings Surrounding Foundation Pits Based on a Stationary Auto-regression Model

To ensure the safety of buildings surrounding foundation pits, a study was made on a settlement monitoring and trend prediction method. A statistical testing method for analyzing the stability of a settlement monitoring datum has been discussed. According to a comprehensive survey, data of 16 stages at operating control point, were verified by a standard t test to determine the stability of the operating control point. A stationary auto-regression model, AR(p), used for the observation point settlement prediction has been investigated. Given the 16 stages of the settlement data at an observation point, the applicability of this model was analyzed. Settlement of last four stages was predicted using the stationary auto-regression model AR (1); the maximum difference between predicted and measured values was 0.6 mm, indicating good prediction results of the model. Hence, this model can be applied to settlement predictions for buildings surrounding foundation pits.

Automatic Delineation of Lung Parenchyma Based on Multilevel Thresholding and Gaussian Mixture Modelling

Delineation of the lung parenchyma in the thoracic Computed Tomography(CT)is an important processing step for most of the pulmonary image analysis such as lung volume extraction,lung nodule detection and pulmonary vessel segmentation.An automatic method for accurate delineation of lung parenchyma in thoracic Computed Tomography images is presented in this paper.The proposed method involves a segmentation phase followed by a lung boundary correction technique.The tissues in the thoracic Computed Tomography can be represented by a number of Gaussians.We propose a histogram utilized Adaptive Multilevel Thresholding(AMT)for estimating the total number of Gaussians and their initial parameters.The parameters of Gaussian components are updated by Expectation Maximization(EM)algorithm.The segmented lung parenchyma from the Gaussian Mixture model(GMM)undergoes an Adaptive Morphological Filtering(AMF)to reduce the boundary errors.The proposed method has been tested on 70 diseased and 119 normal lung images from 28 cases obtained from Lung Image Database Consortium(LIDC).The performance of the proposed system has been validated.

Hormesis has emerged as a more common and fundamental dose-response model than the threshold or linear-no-threshold(LNT) models

在回顾传统的有阈和线性无阈的剂量-反应关系的基础上,分析此类该模型被毒理学领域认同的主要原因和其在预测低剂量效应中的缺陷,进而提出了高剂量接触呈现抑制效应,而低剂量却呈现促进或刺激作用这一全面的激效兴奋性剂量-反应关系,弥补了现有模型的不足,并充分论证这种激效性剂量-反应关系在不同种属、接触因素和生物学终点中的普遍性,并探讨了不同物质的激效兴奋作用的可能机制以及激效兴奋模型的三大优点,最后提出了激效模型谋求广泛接受的现实困难和发展趋势。

Threshold Dynamics of the Stochastic SIRC Epidemic Model

In this paper, we discuss the dynamics of a stochastic SIRC epidemic model with infection rate affected by white noise. We prove that this stochastic model has a unique nonnegative solution globally. A threshold is identified. When the noise is small, the solution of the stochastic model converges to the disease-free equilibrium point of the deterministic model if , which means the basic reproductive number of the stochastic model. And if , the solution of the stochastic model fluctuates around the epidemic equilibrium of the deterministic model. When the noise is large, the disease tends to extinction. The results are illustrated by computer simulations.

Deformation critical threshold estimation of Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam with time-varying grey model

The structural behavior of the Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam is primarily influenced by external loads and time-varying characteristics of dam concrete and foundation rock mass during long-term operation. According to overload testing with a geological model and the measured time series of installed perpendicular lines, the space and time evolution characteristics of the arch dam structure were analyzed, and its mechanical performance was evaluated. Subsequently, the deformation centroid of the deflective curve was suggested to indicate the magnitude and unique distribution rules for a typical dam section using the measured deformation values at multi-monitoring points. The ellipse equations of the critical ellipsoid for the centroid were derived from the historical measured time series. Hydrostatic and seasonal components were extracted from the measured deformation values with a traditional statistical model, and residuals were adopted as a grey component. A time-varying grey model was developed to accurately predict the evolution of the deformation behavior of the ultrahigh arch dam during future operation. In the developed model, constant coefficients were modified so as to be time-dependent functions, and the prediction accuracy was significantly improved through introduction of a forgetting factor. Finally, the critical threshold was estimated, and predicted ellipsoids were derived for the Xiaowan arch dam. The findings of this study can provide technical support for safety evaluation of the actual operation of ultrahigh arch dams and help to provide early warning of abnormal changes.

The Expected Discounted Tax Payments on Dual Risk Model under a Dividend Threshold

In this paper, we consider the dual risk model in which periodic taxation are paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends are paid under a threshold strategy. We give an analytical approach to derive the expression of gδ(u) (i.e. the Laplace transform of the first upper exit time). We discuss the expected discounted tax payments for this model and obtain its corresponding integro-differential equations. Finally, for Erlang (2) inter-innovation distribution, closedform expressions for the expected discounted tax payments are given.

On a Class of Dual Model with Divided Threshold

In this paper, we consider the dual of the generalized Erlang (n) risk model under a threshold dividend strategy. We derive an integrodifferential equation satisfied by the expectation of the discounted dividends until ruin. The case when profits follow an exponential distribution is solved.

Error Threshold of Fully Random Eigen Model

Species evolution is essentially a random process of interaction between biological populations and their environ- ments. As a result, some physical parameters in evolution models are subject to statistical fluctuations. In this work, two important parameters in the Eigen model, the fitness and mutation rate, are treated as Gaassian dis- tributed random variables simultaneously to examine the property of the error threshold. Numerical simulation results show that the error threshold in the fully random model appears as a crossover region instead of a phase transition point, and ＆s the fluctuation strength increases the crossover region becomes smoother and smoother. Furthermore, it is shown that the randomization of the mutation rate plays a dominant role in changing the error threshold in the fully random model, which is consistent with the existing experimental data. The implication of the threshold change due to the randomization for antiviral strategies is discussed.