Fractal model of spontaneous imbibition in low-permeability reservoirs coupled with heterogeneity of pore seepage channels and threshold pressure

Spontaneous imbibition(SI)is an important mechanism for enhancing oil recovery in low-permeability reservoirs.Due to the strong heterogeneity,and the non-Darcy flow,the construction of SI model for lowpermeability reservoirs is extremely challenging.Commonly,traditional SI models based on single or averaged capillary tortuosity ignore the influence of heterogeneity of pore seepage channels and the threshold pressure(TP)on imbibition.Therefore,in this work,based on capillary model and fractal theory,a mathematical model of characterizing SI considering heterogeneity of pore seepage channels is established.On this basis,the threshold pressure was introduced to determine the pore radius at which the wetted phase can displace oil.The proposed new SI model was verified by imbibition experimental data.The study shows that for weakly heterogeneous cores with permeability of 0-1 m D,the traditional SI model can characterize the imbibition process relatively accurately,and the new imbibition model can increase the coefficient of determination by 1.05 times.However,traditional model has serious deviations in predicting the imbibition recovery for cores with permeability of 10-50 m D.The new SI model coupling with heterogeneity of pore seepage channels and threshold pressure effectively solves this problem,and the determination coefficient is increased from 0.344 to 0.922,which is increased by2.68 times.For low-permeability reservoirs,the production of the oil in transitional pores(0.01-0.1μm)and mesopores(0.1-1μm)significantly affects the imbibition recovery,as the research shows that when the heterogeneity of pore seepage channels is ignored,the oil recovery in transitional pores and mesopores decreases by 7.54%and 4.26%,respectively.Sensitivity analysis shows that increasing interfacial tension,decreasing contact angle,oil-water viscosity ratio and threshold pressure will increase imbibition recovery.In addition,there are critical values for the influence of these factors on the imbibition recovery,which provides theoretical support for surfactant optimization.

Ultrafast Response and Threshold Adjustable Intelligent Thermoelectric Systems for Next‑Generation Self‑Powered Remote IoT Fire Warning

Fire warning is vital to human life,economy and ecology.However,the development of effective warning systems faces great challenges of fast response,adjustable threshold and remote detecting.Here,we propose an intelligent self-powered remote IoT fire warning system,by employing single-walled carbon nanotube/titanium carbide thermoelectric composite films.The flexible films,prepared by a convenient solution mixing,display p-type characteristic with excellent high-temperature stability,flame retardancy and TE(power factor of 239.7±15.8μW m^(-1) K^(-2))performances.The comprehensive morphology and structural analyses shed light on the underlying mechanisms.And the assembled TE devices(TEDs)exhibit fast fire warning with adjustable warning threshold voltages(1–10 mV).Excitingly,an ultrafast fire warning response time of~0.1 s at 1 mV threshold voltage is achieved,rivaling many state-of-the-art systems.Furthermore,TE fire warning systems reveal outstanding stability after 50 repeated cycles and desired durability even undergoing 180 days of air exposure.Finally,a TED-based wireless intelligent fire warning system has been developed by coupling an amplifier,analogto-digital converter and Bluetooth module.By combining TE characteristics,high-temperature stability and flame retardancy with wireless IoT signal transmission,TE-based hybrid system developed here is promising for next-generation self-powered remote IoT fire warning applications.

Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China

Systematically determining the discriminatory power of various rainfall properties and their combinations in identifying debris flow occurrence is crucial for early warning systems.In this study,we evaluated the discriminatory power of different univariate and multivariate rainfall threshold models in identifying triggering conditions of debris flow in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China.The univariate models used single rainfall properties as indicators,including total rainfall(R_(tot)),rainfall duration(D),mean intensity(I_(mean)),absolute energy(Eabs),storm kinetic energy(E_(s)),antecedent rainfall(R_(a)),and maximum rainfall intensity over various durations(I_(max_dur)).The evaluation reveals that the I_(max_dur)and Eabs models have the best performance,followed by the E_(s),R_(tot),and I_(mean)models,while the D and R_(a)models have poor performances.Specifically,the I_(max_dur)model has the highest performance metrics at a 40-min duration.We used logistic regression to combine at least two rainfall properties to establish multivariate threshold models.The results show that adding D or R_(a)to the models dominated by Eabs,E_(s),R_(tot),or I_(mean)generally improve their performances,specifically when D is combined with I_(mean)or when R_(a)is combined with Eabs or E_(s).Including R_(a)in the I_(max_dur)model,it performs better than the univariate I_(max_dur)model.A power-law relationship between I_(max_dur)and R_(a)or between Eabs and R_(a)has better performance than the traditional I_(mean)–D model,while the performance of the E_(s)–R_(a)model is moderate.Our evaluation reemphasizes the important role of the maximum intensity over short durations in debris flow occurrence.It also highlights the importance of systematically investigating the role of R_(a)in establishing rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flow.Given the regional variations in rainfall patterns worldwide,it is necessary to evaluate the findings of this study across diverse watersheds.

Chalcogenide Ovonic Threshold Switching Selector

Today’s explosion of data urgently requires memory technologies capable of storing large volumes of data in shorter time frames,a feat unattain-able with Flash or DRAM.Intel Optane,commonly referred to as three-dimensional phase change memory,stands out as one of the most promising candidates.The Optane with cross-point architecture is constructed through layering a storage element and a selector known as the ovonic threshold switch(OTS).The OTS device,which employs chalcogenide film,has thereby gathered increased attention in recent years.In this paper,we begin by providing a brief introduction to the discovery process of the OTS phenomenon.Subsequently,we summarize the key elec-trical parameters of OTS devices and delve into recent explorations of OTS materials,which are categorized as Se-based,Te-based,and S-based material systems.Furthermore,we discuss various models for the OTS switching mechanism,including field-induced nucleation model,as well as several carrier injection models.Additionally,we review the progress and innovations in OTS mechanism research.Finally,we highlight the successful application of OTS devices in three-dimensional high-density memory and offer insights into their promising performance and extensive prospects in emerging applications,such as self-selecting memory and neuromorphic computing.

Vector Dominance with Threshold Searchable Encryption (VDTSE) for the Internet of Things

The Internet of Medical Things(IoMT)is an application of the Internet of Things(IoT)in the medical field.It is a cutting-edge technique that connects medical sensors and their applications to healthcare systems,which is essential in smart healthcare.However,Personal Health Records(PHRs)are normally kept in public cloud servers controlled by IoMT service providers,so privacy and security incidents may be frequent.Fortunately,Searchable Encryption(SE),which can be used to execute queries on encrypted data,can address the issue above.Nevertheless,most existing SE schemes cannot solve the vector dominance threshold problem.In response to this,we present a SE scheme called Vector Dominance with Threshold Searchable Encryption(VDTSE)in this study.We use a Lagrangian polynomial technique and convert the vector dominance threshold problem into a constraint that the number of two equal-length vectors’corresponding bits excluding wildcards is not less than a threshold t.Then,we solve the problem using the proposed technique modified in Hidden Vector Encryption(HVE).This technique makes the trapdoor size linear to the number of attributes and thus much smaller than that of other similar SE schemes.A rigorous experimental analysis of a specific application for privacy-preserving diabetes demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed VDTSE scheme.

Impacts of proppant distribution on development of tight oil reservoirs with threshold pressure gradient

Field evidence indicates that proppant distribution and threshold pressure gradient have great impacts on well productivity.Aiming at the development of unconventional oil reservoirs in Triassic Chang-7 Unit,Ordos Basin of China,we presented an integrated workflow to investigate how(1)proppant placement in induced fracture and(2)non-linear flow in reservoir matrix would affect well productivity and fluid flow in the reservoir.Compared with our research before(Yue et al.,2020),here we extended this study into the development of multi-stage fractured horizontal wells(MFHWs)with large-scale complicated fracture geometry.The integrated workflow is based on the finite element method and consists of simulation models for proppant-laden fluid flow,fracture flow,and non-linear seepage flow,respectively.Simulation results indicate that the distribution of proppant inside the induced cracks significantly affects the productivity of the MFHW.When we assign an idealized proppant distribution instead of the real distribution,there will be an overestimation of 44.98%in daily oil rate and 30.63%in cumulative oil production after continuous development of 1000 days.Besides,threshold pressure gradient(TPG)also significantly affects the well performance in tight oil reservoirs.If we simply apply linear Darcy’s law to the reservoir matrix,the overall cumulative oil production can be overrated by 77%after 1000 days of development.In general,this research provides new insights into the development of tight oil reservoirs with TPG and meanwhile reveals the significance of proppant distribution and non-linear fluid flow in the production scenario design.

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

Properties of radiation defects and threshold energy of displacement in zirconium hydride obtained by new deep-learning potential

Zirconium hydride(ZrH_(2)) is an ideal neutron moderator material. However, radiation effect significantly changes its properties, which affect its behavior and the lifespan of the reactor. The threshold energy of displacement is an important quantity of the number of radiation defects produced, which helps us to predict the evolution of radiation defects in ZrH_(2).Molecular dynamics(MD) and ab initio molecular dynamics(AIMD) are two main methods of calculating the threshold energy of displacement. The MD simulations with empirical potentials often cannot accurately depict the transitional states that lattice atoms must surpass to reach an interstitial state. Additionally, the AIMD method is unable to perform largescale calculation, which poses a computational challenge beyond the simulation range of density functional theory. Machine learning potentials are renowned for their high accuracy and efficiency, making them an increasingly preferred choice for molecular dynamics simulations. In this work, we develop an accurate potential energy model for the ZrH_(2) system by using the deep-potential(DP) method. The DP model has a high degree of agreement with first-principles calculations for the typical defect energy and mechanical properties of the ZrH_(2) system, including the basic bulk properties, formation energy of point defects, as well as diffusion behavior of hydrogen and zirconium. By integrating the DP model with Ziegler–Biersack–Littmark(ZBL) potential, we can predict the threshold energy of displacement of zirconium and hydrogen in ε-ZrH_(2).

A study of the soil water potential threshold values to trigger irrigation of ‘Shimizu Hakuto’ peach at pivotal fruit developmental stages

Water management is an important practice that affects fruit size and quality.Effective implementation of irrigation scheduling requires knowledge of the appropriate indicators and thresholds,which are established manly based on the effects of water deficits on final fruit quality.Few studies have focused on the real-time effects of water status on fruit and shoot growth.To establish soil water potential (ψ_(soil)) thresholds to trigger irrigation of peach at pivotal fruit developmental stages,photogrammetry,^(13)C labelling,and other techniques were used in this study to investigate real-time changes in stem diameter,fruit projected area,net leaf photosynthetic rate (P_(n)),and allocation of photoassimilates to fruit under soil water potential conditions ranging from saturation to stress in 6-year-old Shimizu hakuto’peach.Stem growth,fruit growth,and P_n exhibited gradually decreasing sensitivity to water deficits during fruit developmental stages I,II,and III.Stem diameter growth was significantly inhibited whenψ_(soil)dropped to-8.5,-7.6,and-5.4 k Pa,respectively.Fruit growth rate was low,reaching zero when theψ_(soil)was-9.0 to-23.1,-14.9 to-21.4,and-16.5 to-23.3 k Pa,respectively,and P_ndecreased significantly when theψ_(soil)reached-24.2,-22.7,and-20.4 kPa,respectively.In addition,more photoassimilates were allocated to fruit under moderateψ_(soil)conditions (-10.1 to-17.0 k Pa) than under otherψ_(soil)values.Our results revealed threeψ_(soil)thresholds,-10.0,-15.0,and-15.0 kPa,suitable for triggering irrigation during stages I,II,and III,respectively.These thresholds can be helpful for controlling excessive tree vigor,maintaining rapid fruit growth and leaf photosynthesis,and promoting the allocation of more photoassimilates to fruit.

Vehicle Abnormal Behavior Detection Based on Dense Block and Soft Thresholding

With the rapid advancement of social economies,intelligent transportation systems are gaining increasing atten-tion.Central to these systems is the detection of abnormal vehicle behavior,which remains a critical challenge due to the complexity of urban roadways and the variability of external conditions.Current research on detecting abnormal traffic behaviors is still nascent,with significant room for improvement in recognition accuracy.To address this,this research has developed a new model for recognizing abnormal traffic behaviors.This model employs the R3D network as its core architecture,incorporating a dense block to facilitate feature reuse.This approach not only enhances performance with fewer parameters and reduced computational demands but also allows for the acquisition of new features while simplifying the overall network structure.Additionally,this research integrates a self-attentive method that dynamically adjusts to the prevailing traffic conditions,optimizing the relevance of features for the task at hand.For temporal analysis,a Bi-LSTM layer is utilized to extract and learn from time-based data nuances.This research conducted a series of comparative experiments using the UCF-Crime dataset,achieving a notable accuracy of 89.30%on our test set.Our results demonstrate that our model not only operates with fewer parameters but also achieves superior recognition accuracy compared to previous models.

AMicroseismic Signal Denoising Algorithm Combining VMD and Wavelet Threshold Denoising Optimized by BWOA

The denoising of microseismic signals is a prerequisite for subsequent analysis and research.In this research,a new microseismic signal denoising algorithm called the Black Widow Optimization Algorithm(BWOA)optimized VariationalMode Decomposition(VMD)jointWavelet Threshold Denoising(WTD)algorithm(BVW)is proposed.The BVW algorithm integrates VMD and WTD,both of which are optimized by BWOA.Specifically,this algorithm utilizes VMD to decompose the microseismic signal to be denoised into several Band-Limited IntrinsicMode Functions(BLIMFs).Subsequently,these BLIMFs whose correlation coefficients with the microseismic signal to be denoised are higher than a threshold are selected as the effective mode functions,and the effective mode functions are denoised using WTD to filter out the residual low-and intermediate-frequency noise.Finally,the denoised microseismic signal is obtained through reconstruction.The ideal values of VMD parameters and WTD parameters are acquired by searching with BWOA to achieve the best VMD decomposition performance and solve the problem of relying on experience and requiring a large workload in the application of the WTD algorithm.The outcomes of simulated experiments indicate that this algorithm is capable of achieving good denoising performance under noise of different intensities,and the denoising performance is significantly better than the commonly used VMD and Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)algorithms.The BVW algorithm is more efficient in filtering noise,the waveform after denoising is smoother,the amplitude of the waveform is the closest to the original signal,and the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)and the root mean square error after denoising are more satisfying.The case based on Fankou Lead-Zinc Mine shows that for microseismic signals with different intensities of noise monitored on-site,compared with VMD and EMD,the BVW algorithm ismore efficient in filtering noise,and the SNR after denoising is higher.

Threshold friction velocity influenced by soil particle size within the Columbia Plateau, northwestern United States

Wind erosion is a geomorphic process in arid and semi-arid areas and has substantial implications for regional climate and desertification.In the Columbia Plateau of northwestern United States,the emissions from fine particles of loessial soils often contribute to the exceedance of inhalable particulate matter(PM)with an aerodynamic diameter of 10μm or less(PM10)according to the air quality standards.However,little is known about the threshold friction velocity(TFV)for particles of different sizes that comprise these soils.In this study,soil samples of two representative soil types(Warden sandy loam and Ritzville silt loam)collected from the Columbia Plateau were sieved to seven particle size fractions,and an experiment was then conducted to determine the relationship between TFV and particle size fraction.The results revealed that soil particle size significantly affected the initiation of soil movement and TFV;TFV ranged 0.304-0.844 and 0.249-0.739 m/s for different particle size fractions of Ritzville silt loam and Warden sandy loam,respectively.PM10 and total suspended particulates(TSP)emissions from a bed of 63-90μm soil particles were markedly higher for Warden sandy loam than for Ritzville silt loam.Together with the lower TFV of Warden sandy loam,dust emissions from fine particles(<100μm in diameter)of Warden sandy loam thus may be a main contributor to dust in the region's atmosphere,since the PM10 emissions from the soil erosion surfaces and its ensuing suspension within the atmosphere constitute an essential process of soil erosion in the Columbia Plateau.Developing and implementing strategic land management practices on sandy loam soils is therefore necessary to control dust emissions in the Columbia Plateau.

The effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading:Empirical analysis of provincial and threshold characteristics in China

Global population aging trends are intensifying,presenting multifaceted economic and social challenges for countries worldwide.As the world’s largest developing country,China has entered a phase of extreme demographic aging,posing significant questions about its impact on the ongoing upgrading of industrial structures.How does this demographic shift influence the upgrading of industrial structures,and does technological innovation mitigate or exacerbate this impact?The empirical results indicate that population aging impedes upgrading the industrial structure,while technological innovation positively affects the relationship between the two.Moreover,using technological innovation as a threshold variable,the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading evolves in a“gradient”manner from“impediment”to“insignificant”to“promotion”as the technological innovation levels increase.These findings offer practical guidance for tailoring industrial policies to different stages of technological advancement.

The Toxic Effects of Strong Chlorin Disinfectant on Mangroves and Emission Thresholds

In this study, based on the simulated discharge results of chemical disinfectants, hypocotyl germination concentration gradient pre-test and concentration gradient determination experiment were set up respectively. Laboratory cultivation was conducted to compare and analyze the root germination and germination indexes, three mangrove hypocotyls of Kandelia candel (Linn.) Druce, Ceriopstagal C.B. Rob. and Bruguiera sexangula var. Rhynchopetalas’ efficiency of cumulative root germination, cumulative germination and the cumulative expansion of the second pair of leaves, one-way analysis of variance was used to obtain the tolerance threshold of three mangrove hypocotyls to strong chlorin disinfectant. The study determined that the by-products of strong chlorin disinfectant, the toxic threshold concentrations of Kandelia candel (Linn.) Druce, Ceriopstagal C.B. Rob. and Bruguiera sexangula var. rhynchopetala are close to 0.55 mg/L, 0.55 mg/L and 0.25 mg/L, respectively. This concentration range is lower than the average concentration of 1.183 mg/L of active chlorine emitted from strong chlorine concentrate during pond clearing in high-level shrimp ponds, indicating that transient emissions of strong chlorine concentrate during pond clearing can have a toxic effect on mangrove plants. The strength of tolerance of the embryonic axes of the three mangrove species to effective chlorine contamination was, Ceriopstagal C.B. Rob. stronger than Bruguiera sexangula var. rhynchopetala, and Kandelia candel (Linn.) Druce is the weakest.

CT Thresholds for Spinal Bone Mineral Attenuation to Prioritize Eligible Older Women for Osteoporosis Screening

Introduction: Computed tomography (CT) measurements of bone mineral attenuation may be a useful means to identify older women who should be prioritized for bone mineral density screening. Methods: We compared bone mineral attenuation as measured in the L1 vertebra of CT studies to the results of dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) studies to determine what CT attenuation thresholds might yield a reasonable combination of sensitivity and specificity for the detection of osteoporosis. The study was limited to women between the ages of 65 and 75 years who had a DEXA study and a CT that included the L1 or adjacent vertebra performed within 3 years of the DEXA study. Results: There were 1226 women in this study, of whom 452 (38%) had osteoporosis based on a T-score ≤ −2.5 by DEXA. There were 830 CT studies performed with contrast and 396 studies which were performed without contrast. There was a statistically significant difference in the mean HU of those studies performed without contrast compared to those with contrast (unenhanced mean 103 HU versus 125 HU, p < 0.001). Different CT attenuation thresholds provided the most appropriate combination of sensitivity and specificity for the detection of osteoporosis when comparing CT studies performed without or with IV contrast and when all the CT data were used in aggregate. Conclusion: Different thresholds appear necessary when using the mean CT vertebral attenuation to identify older women for preferential referral for DEXA studies.

Impact of digital economy development on carbon productivity:An empirical analysis based on threshold effect and spatial spillover effect

Utilizing provincial panel data from 2014 to 2020,this study employs a fixed effect model,a threshold effect model,and a spatial lag model to empirically examine the correlation between digital economic development and carbon productivity.The findings indicate that digital economic development significantly contributes to the enhancement of carbon productivity in the long term.Furthermore,through instrumental variable method,replacement of explanatory variables and other methods to test its endogeneity and stability,the results remain robust.In terms of regional heterogeneity,the impact of digital economic development on carbon productivity is less pronounced in the central and western regions compared to the eastern region.Additionally,further investigation reveals that industrial structure upgrading and science and technology investment level exhibit different threshold effects on the influence of digital economy development level on carbon productivity.Moreover,there is a significant spatial spillover effect of digital economy development on carbon productivity with H-H and L-L agglomeration spatial correlation.

Research on the Threshold Effect of China’s Pharmaceutical Export Trade on Internal and External R&D Investment

Objective To study the threshold effect of export trade on internal and external R&D investment in China’s pharmaceutical industry,and to provide reference for some pharmaceutical enterprises to improve the investment.Methods The panel data of pharmaceutical industry in 25 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2019 were selected to conduct empirical analysis by establishing a threshold regression model,and a better export trade interval was obtained.Results and Conclusion There is a threshold value for the effect of new product export on both internal and external R&D expenditures,and the threshold values are 845.2788 million yuan and 318.4198 million yuan,respectively.There is a single threshold effect of export trade on both internal and external R&D investment in China’s pharmaceutical industry,and the effect of export trade on internal and external R&D investment changes from negative to positive as the export trade develops from low to high.

Research on the Impact of China’s Foreign Trade Technology Spillover on Green Total Factor Productivity of Countries Along the“Belt and Road”:Based on the Institutional Quality Threshold Effect

China’s growing trade with countries along the“Belt and Road”Initiative is accompanied by a focus on green development.Based on the panel data from 2007 to 2018,this paper establishes a threshold regression model to empirically analyze the institutional quality threshold effect of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the GTFP of countries along the“Belt and Road.”The results show that China’s foreign trade technology spillover has a significant institutional quality double threshold effect on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the“Belt and Road.”As the institutional quality of the countries along the“Belt and Road”crosses a specific threshold value,the impact of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the“Belt and Road”has a significant positive promoting effect,and corresponding suggestions are put forward.

Volatile threshold switching memristor:An emerging enabler in the AIoT era

With rapid advancement and deep integration of artificial intelligence and the internet-of-things,artificial intelligence of things has emerged as a promising technology changing people’s daily life.Massive growth of data generated from the devices challenges the AIoT systems from information collection,storage,processing and communication.In the review,we introduce volatile threshold switching memristors,which can be roughly classified into three types:metallic conductive filament-based TS devices,amorphous chalcogenide-based ovonic threshold switching devices,and metal-insulator transition based TS devices.They play important roles in high-density storage,energy efficient computing and hardware security for AIoT systems.Firstly,a brief introduction is exhibited to describe the categories(materials and characteristics)of volatile TS devices.And then,switching mechanisms of the three types of TS devices are discussed and systematically summarized.After that,attention is focused on the applications in 3D cross-point memory technology with high storage-density,efficient neuromorphic computing,hardware security(true random number generators and physical unclonable functions),and others(steep subthreshold slope transistor,logic devices,etc.).Finally,the major challenges and future outlook of volatile threshold switching memristors are presented.

Deformation critical threshold estimation of Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam with time-varying grey model

The structural behavior of the Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam is primarily influenced by external loads and time-varying characteristics of dam concrete and foundation rock mass during long-term operation. According to overload testing with a geological model and the measured time series of installed perpendicular lines, the space and time evolution characteristics of the arch dam structure were analyzed, and its mechanical performance was evaluated. Subsequently, the deformation centroid of the deflective curve was suggested to indicate the magnitude and unique distribution rules for a typical dam section using the measured deformation values at multi-monitoring points. The ellipse equations of the critical ellipsoid for the centroid were derived from the historical measured time series. Hydrostatic and seasonal components were extracted from the measured deformation values with a traditional statistical model, and residuals were adopted as a grey component. A time-varying grey model was developed to accurately predict the evolution of the deformation behavior of the ultrahigh arch dam during future operation. In the developed model, constant coefficients were modified so as to be time-dependent functions, and the prediction accuracy was significantly improved through introduction of a forgetting factor. Finally, the critical threshold was estimated, and predicted ellipsoids were derived for the Xiaowan arch dam. The findings of this study can provide technical support for safety evaluation of the actual operation of ultrahigh arch dams and help to provide early warning of abnormal changes.