A New Multidimensional Time Series Forecasting Method Based on the EOF Iteration Scheme

In this paper a new .mnultidimensional time series forecasting scheme based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) stepwise iteration process is introduced. The scheme is tested in a series of forecast experiments of Nino3 SST anomalies and Tahiti-Darwin SO index. The results show that the scheme is feasible and ENSO predictable.

Time-Based Dynamic Trust Model Using Ant Colony Algorithm

The trust in distributed environment is uncertain, which is variation for various factors. This paper introduces TDTM, a model for time-based dynamic trust. Every entity in the distribute environment is endowed with a trust-vector, which figures the trust intensity between this entity and the others. The trust intensity is dynamic due to the time and the inter-operation between two entities, a method is proposed to quantify this change based on the mind of ant colony algorithm and then an algorithm for the transfer of trust relation is also proposed. Furthermore, this paper analyses the influence to the trust intensity among all entities that is aroused by the change of trust intensity between the two entities, and presents an algorithm to resolve the problem. Finally, we show the process of the trusts＇ change that is aroused by the time＇s lapse and the inter-operation through an instance.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

The instantaneous total mortality rate(Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis,abundance and catch forecast,and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort(CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method,the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time,but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant,and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z,and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates(the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore,the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them,but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod(G adus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997,and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Quorum systems for intrusion-tolerance based on trusted timely computing base

Quorum systems have been used to solve the problem of data consistency in distributed fault-tolerance systems. But when intrusions occur, traditional quorum systems have some disadvantages. For example, synchronous quorum systems are subject to DOS attacks, while asynchronous quorum systems need a larger system size （at least 3f＋1 for generic data, and f fewer for self-verifying data）. In order to solve the problems above, an intrusion-tolerance quorum system （ITQS） of hybrid time model based on trust timely computing base is presented （TTCB）. The TTCB is a trust secure real-time component inside the server with a well defined interface and separated from the operation system. It is in the synchronous communication environment while the application layer in the server deals with read-write requests and executes update-copy protocols asynchronously. The architectural hybridization of synchrony and asynchrony can achieve the data consistency and availability correctly. We also build two kinds of ITQSes based on TTCB, i.e., the symmetrical and the asymmetrical TTCB quorum systems. In the performance evaluations, we show that TTCB quorum systems are of smaller size, lower load and higher availability.

Uncertainty quantification for stochastic dynamical systems using time-dependent stochastic bases

A novel method based on time-dependent stochastic orthogonal bases for stochastic response surface approximation is proposed to overcome the problem of significant errors in the utilization of the generalized polynomial chaos(GPC) method that approximates the stochastic response by orthogonal polynomials. The accuracy and effectiveness of the method are illustrated by different numerical examples including both linear and nonlinear problems. The results indicate that the proposed method modifies the stochastic bases adaptively, and has a better approximation for the probability density function in contrast to the GPC method.

Timed Petri Net Models of Shared-Memory Bus-Based Multiprocessors

In shared-memory bus-based multiprocessors, when the number of processors grows, the processors spend an increasing amount of time waiting for access to the bus (and shared memory). This contention reduces the performance of processors and imposes a limitation of the number of processors that can be used efficiently in bus-based systems. Since the multi-processor’s performance depends upon many parameters which affect the performance in different ways, timed Petri nets are used to model shared-memory bus-based multiprocessors at the instruction execution level, and the developed models are used to study how the performance of processors changes with the number of processors in the system. The results illustrate very well the restriction on the number of processors imposed by the shared bus. All performance characteristics presented in this paper are obtained by discrete-event simulation of Petri net models.

Real-time lane departure warning system based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution and risk evaluation model

A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.

Splitting Based Scheme for Three-dimensional MHD with Dual Time Stepping

A new hybrid numerical scheme of combining an E-CUSP(Energy-Convective Upwind and Split Pressure) method for the fluid part and the Constrained Transport(CT) for the magnetic induction part is proposed.In order to avoid the occurrence of negative pressure in the reconstructed profiles and its updated value,a positivity preserving method is provided.Furthermore,the MHD equations are solved at each physical time step by advancing in pseudo time.The use of dual time stepping is beneficial in the computation since the use of dual time stepping allows the physical time step not to be limited by the corresponding values in the smallest cell and to be selected based on the numerical accuracy criterion.This newly established hybrid scheme combined with positivity preserving method and dual time technique has demonstrated the accurateness and robustness through numerical experiments of benchmark problems such as the 2D Orszag-Tang vortex problem and the3 D shock-cloud interaction problem.

Analytical Modeling of Base Transit Time of SiGe HBTS Including Concentration Dependent Bandgap Narrowing Effect

Heterojunction Bipolar Transistors with SiGe base and Si emitter and collector have increasingly become important in high speed applications in electronics due to better performance of these devices with a modest increase in complexity of fabrication process. Speed of these devices is mainly determined by transit time of minority carriers across the device. Base transit time is the most important component of the total transit time. An analytical model is developed here to predict the variation of base transit time with Ge content, base doping concentration, temperature, and other device parameters. Studies have been made for both uniform and exponential doping distributions with different Ge profiles in the base region. Band gap narrowing effect due to high doping concentration is also taken into account in the model.

Experimental validation of a signal-based approach for structural earthquake damage detection using fractal dimension of time frequency feature

This article extends a signal-based approach formerly proposed by the authors, which utilizes the fractal dimension of time frequency feature （FDTFF） of displacements, for earthquake damage detection of moment resist frame （MRF）, and validates the approach with shaking table tests. The time frequency feature （TFF） of the relative displacement at measured story is defined as the real part of the coefficients of the analytical wavelet transform. The fractal dimension （FD） is to quantify the TFF within the fundamental frequency band using box counting method. It is verified that the FDTFFs at all stories of the linear MRF are identical with the help of static condensation method and modal superposition principle, while the FDTFFs at the stories with localized nonlinearities due to damage will be different from those at the stories without nonlinearities using the reverse-path methodology. By comparing the FDTFFs of displacements at measured stories in a structure, the damage-induced nonlinearity of the structure under strong ground motion can be detected and localized. Finally shaking table experiments on a 1：8 scale sixteen-story three-bay steel MRF with added frictional dampers, which generate local nonlinearities, are conducted to validate the approach.

Characteristic-Based Time Domain Method for Cylindrically Conformal Microstrip Patch Antennas

The characteristics of a cylindrical conformal microstrip patch antenna are analyzed by using the characteristic-based time domain （CBTD） method. A governing equation in the cylindrical coordinate system is formulated directly to facilitate the analysis of cylindrically conformal microstrip patch antennas. The algorithm has second-order accuracy both in time and space domain and has the potential to eliminate the spurious wave reflection from the numerical boundaries of the computational domain, Numerical results demonstrate the important merits and accuracy of the proposed technique in computational electromagnetics,

Web-based GIS System for Real-time Field Data Collection Using Personal Mobile Phone

Recently, use of mobile communicational devices in field data collection is increasing such as smart phones and cellular phones due to emergence of embedded Global Position System GPS and Wi-Fi Internet access. Accurate timely and handy field data collection is required for disaster management and emergency quick responses. In this article, we introduce web-based GIS system to collect the field data by personal mobile phone through Post Office Protocol POP3 mail server. The main objective of this work is to demonstrate real-time field data collection method to the students using their mobile phone to collect field data by timely and handy manners, either individual or group survey in local or global scale research.

Contention-Based Beaconless Real-Time Routing Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks

This paper presents a novel real-time routing protocol, called CBRR, with less energy consumption for wireless sensor networks (WSNs). End-to-End real-time requirements are fulfilled with speed or delay constraint at each hop through integrating the contention and neighbor table mechanisms. More precisely, CBRR maintains a neighbor table via the contention mechanism being dependent on wireless broadcast instead of beacons. Comprehensive simulations show that CBRR can not only achieve higher performance in static networks, but also work well for dynamic networks.

Clustering-Inverse: A Generalized Model for Pattern-Based Time Series Segmentation

Patterned-based time series segmentation (PTSS) is an important task for many time series data mining applications. In this paper, according to the characteristics of PTSS, a generalized model is proposed for PTSS. First, a new inter-pretation for PTSS is given by comparing this problem with the prototype-based clustering (PC). Then, a novel model, called clustering-inverse model (CI-model), is presented. Finally, two algorithms are presented to implement this model. Our experimental results on artificial and real-world time series demonstrate that the proposed algorithms are quite effective.

Market-based control strategy for long-span structures considering the multi-time delay issue

To solve the different time delays that exist in the control device installed on spatial structures, in this study, discrete analysis using a 2N precise algorithm was selected to solve the multi-time-delay issue for long-span structures based on the market-based control （MBC） method. The concept of interval mixed energy was introduced from computational structural mechanics and optimal control research areas, and it translates the design of the MBC multi-time-delay controller into a solution for the segment matrix. This approach transforms the serial algorithm in time to parallel computing in space, greatly improving the solving efficiency and numerical stability. The designed controller is able to consider the issue of time delay with a linear controlling force combination and is especially effective for large time-delay conditions. A numerical example of a long-span structure was selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented controller, and the time delay was found to have a significant impact on the results.

扶阳健脾汤-滋阴养胃汤顺势给药和逆势给药对健康大鼠生理指标的影响

目的通过顺势和逆势给药大鼠扶阳健脾汤和滋阴养胃汤的研究来进一步验证中医阴阳分药分时服用方剂学理论,以及评价扶阳健脾汤和滋阴养胃汤的亚急性毒性。方法选取无特定病原体级SD大鼠48只,雌雄各半,按性别、体质量(空腹)排序,采用计算机随机法分为顺势饲喂组、逆势饲喂组、阴阳合药饲喂组和对照组,每组12只。对顺势饲喂组大鼠早上给予滋阴养胃汤颗粒制剂溶液,下午给予扶阳健脾汤颗粒制剂溶液灌胃,逆势饲喂组大鼠给药顺序与顺势饲喂组相反;阴阳合药饲喂组大鼠给予扶阳健脾汤和滋阴养胃汤合药颗粒制剂混合溶液灌胃,分早晚两次给药;给予对照组早晚灌胃等量超纯水,四组大鼠均每周给药5 d,共给药7周。分别于饲喂第1天、第10天、第20天、第30天、第45天时观察各级大鼠的皮肤毛发、行为状态、兴奋程度、激怒反应、睡眠状态、大便状态。分别于饲喂后第1周、第3周、第5周、第7周的周一、三、五测定大鼠采食量和体质量,饲喂7周后检测大鼠血液常规和血生化指标,计算脏器系数。结果饲喂第3周、第5周、第7周,顺势饲喂组日均采食量明显低于对照组;饲喂第5周、第7周,逆势饲喂组体质量明显高于对照组;饲喂7周后,顺势饲喂组和逆势饲喂组的心脏脏器系数明显低于对照组,而顺势饲喂组的脾脏脏器系数明显高于对照组;顺势饲喂组单核细胞计数明显低于对照组,顺势饲喂组和阴阳合药饲喂组的甘油三酯明显低于对照组,顺势饲喂组的血清总胆固醇明显低于对照组,顺势饲喂组、逆势饲喂组、阴阳合药饲喂组的空腹血糖明显低于对照组,顺势饲喂组、逆势饲喂组、阴阳合药饲喂组的肌酐明显高于对照组;顺势饲喂组和阴阳合药饲喂组的白蛋白明显高于对照组。结论顺势给药、逆势给药、混合给药可引起大鼠空腹血糖降低,肌酐增高;此外,顺势给药还可引起大鼠心脏脏器系数、单核细胞计数、甘油三酯、总胆固醇降低,脾脏脏器系数、白蛋白增高,表明顺势给药会促进大鼠的气血运行,有利于减少食物的摄入以及促进大鼠代谢体内的碳水化合物和蛋白质的代谢,从而进一步验证了中医阴阳分药分时服用方剂学理论。

Time-Expanded Sampling for Ensemble-Based Filters:Assimilation Experiments with Real Radar Observations

By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemble size without increasing the number of prediction runs and, hence, can reduce the computational cost of an ensemble-based filter. In this study, this approach is tested for the first time with real radar data from a tornadic thunderstorm. In particular, four assimilation experiments were performed to test the time-expanded sampling method against the conventional ensemble sampling method used by ensemble- based filters. In these experiments, the ensemble square-root filter （EnSRF） was used with 45 ensemble members generated by the time-expanded sampling and conventional sampling from 15 and 45 prediction runs, respectively, and quality-controlled radar data were compressed into super-observations with properly reduced spatial resolutions to improve the EnSRF performances. The results show that the time-expanded sampling approach not only can reduce the computational cost but also can improve the accuracy of the analysis, especially when the ensemble size is severely limited due to computational constraints for real-radar data assimilation. These potential merits are consistent with those previously demonstrated by assimilation experiments with simulated data.

Influence of soaking time on semi-conductivity and nonlinear electrical properties of TiO_2-based varistor ceramics

We investigated the influence of soaking time on the semi-conductivity and nonlinear electrical properties of TiO2-based varistor ceramic samples.We used a single sintering process and fabricated six disk samples of(Sr,Bi,Si,Ta)-doped TiO2-based varistor ceramics sintered at 1 250°C for 0.5 h,1.0 h,2.0 h,3.0 h,4.0 h,and 5.0 h,respectively.The samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction,breakdown voltage,and complex impedance.The results show that as the soaking time increases from 0.5 h to 5.0 h,the breakdown voltage drops before rising while the nonlinear coefficient increases and then decreases.We suggest that,considering both grain semi-conductivity and nonlinear electrical properties of the TiO2-based varistor ceramics,the optimal soaking time is between 2.0 h and 3.0 h.

基于时间间隔标准的尾流安全评估分析方法

科学地优化飞机间尾流间隔是提升机场吞吐量的重要举措,确保安全是尾流间隔实施的首要前提。首先,基于大涡模拟试验数据,对经典的两阶段消散模型(Wake Two-Stage Decay Model,D2P)模型进行改进,创建顶风对尾涡环量衰减的影响模型。然后,针对基于时间间隔(Time-Based Separation,TBS)未考虑顶风会影响尾涡移动和尾涡环量衰减,通过转化为飞机地速和构建改进D2P模型深刻分析两因素对尾涡遭遇严重度的影响。最后,计算实施TBS时不同风速不同机型组合对应的最小尾流间隔,并综合分析对应间隔的尾涡遭遇严重度。结果表明:虽然TBS未考虑顶风对尾涡移动和环量衰减的影响,但可以确保前后机安全性;在顶风8 m/s应用TBS方案时,各机型组合的尾涡遭遇严重度约为静风时的30%。TBS安全地缩减了顶风时的尾流间隔。