Research on time structure characteristic of gas concentration sequence in the working face

In the procedure of coal industry production, the losses of the persons and economy caused by the gas explosion accidents are most serious, therefore, prevention and control of the gas explosion accident of the coal mines is an important issue needed to be solved urgently in the safety production work of our coal mines. The characteristic of time structure variation index characteristic was analyzed about gas concentration sequence of three measure points in the NO. 1I 1024 working face. It was found that the value of time variation about three measure points was mostly 1〈δ≤1.5, and gas emission presented consistently strong-clustering state twice, and the value of time variation presented continuous variation state in the active stage of gas concentration. Complex characteristics of the value indicated gas emission was continuously variable in time or space and presented the complex nonlinear characteristics. So the characteristic about gas emission system was correctly depicted and analyzed to gas emission system according to the relation of its state variation and essential of nonlinear system. The result also provided reliable warranty for its continued nonlinear research on gas emission.

Research on the Application of Time Structure Variation Analysis to the Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake Swarm Sequence

In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Only corresponding to a certain magnitude can the sequence have the variation state of critical clustering. （6） The coefficient of the time variation has a clear meaning in physics. After the clustering-quiet state of earthquake activity has appeared, it can describe clearly the randomness of the seismogenic system. Furthermore, it can efficiently clarify whether or not the clustering quiescence variation is of some prognostic meaning. In the case that the earthquake frequency attenuation is essentially normal （h 〉 1 ） and there is no remarkable clustering-quiescence state, it is still possible to discover the abnormal change of the sequence from the time variation coefficient. On the contrary, in the later period of swarm activity, after the appearance of many seismic quiescence phenomena, this coefficient did not appear abnormally, even when h 〈 1, suggesting that the δ-value diagnosis is more universal.

Vertical structure and dominating factors of sand body during Late Triassic Chang 9 time of Yanchang Formation in Ordos Basin, NW China

Based on a synthetic geological study of drilling, well logging and core observations, two main genetic types of Chang 9sand body in Odors Basin were recognized, which included two effects, that is, delta environment and tractive current effects that lead to the development of mouth bar, distal bar, sheet sand and other sand bodies of subaerial and subaqueous distributary channel,natural levee, flood fan and delta front, and shore-shallow lake environment and lake flow transformation effects that result in the development of sandy beach bar, sheet sand and other sand bodies. Chang 9 sand body mainly developed five basic vertical structures, namely box shape, campaniform, infundibuliform, finger and dentoid. The vertical stacking patterns of multilayer sand body was complex, and the common shapes included box shape + box shape, campaniform + campaniform, campaniform + box shape, infundibuliform + infundibuliform, campaniform + infundibuliform, box shape + campaniform, box shape + infundibuliform,and finger + finger. Based on the analysis on major dominating factors of vertical structure of sand body, sedimentary environment,sedimentary facies and rise, fall and cycle of base level are identified as the major geological factors that control the vertical structure of single sand body as well as vertical stacking patterns and distribution of multistory sand bodies.

Modelling time series properties of Australian lending interest rates

The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of Australian residential mortgage interest rates, and in doing so, establish whether or not selected home loan rates （product-level monthly home loan interest rates for CBA） exhibit the expected cyclical and seasonal variations and whether seasonality, if present, is stochastic or deterministic. In particular, due to a well established presence of cyclicality in financial markets＇ interest rates and strong correlation between financial markets＇ interest rates and home loan interest rates, the paper presumes that cyclicality is also to be found in home loan interest rates. Furthermore, the paper tests the hypothesis that home loan interest rates, for selected products, exhibit the three identified （＂Spring＂, ＂Autumn＂ and ＂The end of the Financial Year＂） season-related interest rate reductions. The paper uses a structural time series modelling approach and product-level home loan interest rates data from one of the biggest banks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia （CBA）. As expected, the results overall confirm the existence of cyclicality in home loan interest rates. With respect to the seasonality of home loan interest rate, although most of the analysed variables show the presence of statistically significant seasonal factors, the majority of the statistically significant seasonal factors observed cannot be attributed to any of the three considered seasonal effects.

Modification of CaO-based sorbents prepared from calcium acetate for CO_2 capture at high temperature

CaO-based sorbent is considered to be a promising candidate for capturing CO_2 at high temperature. However,the adsorption capacity of CaO decreases sharply with the increase of the carbonation/calcination cycles. In this study, CaO was derived from calcium acetate(CaAc_2), which was doped with different elements(Mg, Al,Ce, Zr and La) to improve the cyclic stability. The carbonation conversion and cyclic stability of sorbents were tested by thermogravimetric analyzer(TGA). The sorbents were characterized by N_2 isothermal adsorption measurements, scanning electron microscopy(SEM) and X-ray diffraction(XRD). The results showed that the cyclic stabilities of all modified sorbents were improved by doping elements, while the carbonation conversions of sorbents in the 1st cycle were not increased by doping different elements. After 22 cycles, the cyclic stabilities of CaO–Al, CaO–Ce and CaO–La were above 96.2%. After 110 cycles, the cyclic stability of CaO–Al was still as high as 87.1%. Furthermore, the carbonation conversion was closely related to the critical time and specific surface area.

Different optical properties in different periodic slot cavity geometrical morphologies

In this paper,optical properties of two-dimensional periodic annular slot cavity arrays in hexagonal close-packing on a silica substrate are theoretically characterized by finite difference time domain（FDTD） simulation method.By simulating reflectance spectra,electric field distribution,and charge distribution,we confirm that multiple cylindrical surface plasmon resonances can be excited in annular inclined slot cavities by linearly polarized light,in which the four reflectance dips are attributed to Fabry–Perot cavity resonances in the coaxial cavity.A coaxial waveguide mode TE11 will exist in these annular cavities,and the wavelengths of these reflectance dips are effectively tailored by changing the geometrical pattern of slot cavity and the dielectric materials filled in the cavities.These resonant wavelengths are localized in annular cavities with large electric field enhancement and dissipate gradually due to metal loss.The formation of an absorption peak can be explained from the aspect of phase matching conditions.We observed that the proposed structure can be tuned over the broad spectral range of 600–4000 nm by changing the outer and inner radii of the annular gaps,gap surface topography.Meanwhile,different lengths of the cavity may cause the shift of resonance dips.Also,we study the field enhancement at different vertical locations of the slit.In addition,dielectric materials filling in the annular gaps will result in a shift of the resonance wavelengths,which make the annular cavities good candidates for refractive index sensors.The refractive index sensitivity of annular cavities can also be tuned by the geometry size and the media around the cavity.Annular cavities with novel applications can be implied as surface enhanced Raman spectra substrates,refractive index sensors,nano-lasers,and optical trappers.

Event-Based Operational Semantics and a Consistency Result for Real-Time Concurrent Processes with Action Refinement

In this paper an event-based operational interleaving semantics is proposed for real-time processes, for which action refinement and a denotational true concurrency semantics are developed and defined in terms of timed event structures. The authors characterize the timed event traces that are generated by the operational semantics in a denotational way, and show that this operational semantics is consistent with the denotational semantics in the sense that they generate the same set of timed event traces, thereby eliminating the gap between the true concurrency and interleaving semantics. Keywords action refinement - real-time process algebra - semantics - timed event structure - formal method This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 60373113) and the “Hundred-Talent Program” of Chinese Academy of Sciences.Xiu-Li Sun was born in 1975. She received her B.S. degree in 1998 and M.S. degree in 2002 from Taiyuan University of Technology, Shanxi. She is studying in the Institute of Computer Application, Chengdu for her doctorate.Wen-Ying Zhang was born in 1972. Now he is a Ph.D. candidate of Computer Application, the Chinese Academy of Sciences. His current research interests include formal verification, digital watermarking and pattern recognition.Jin-Zhao Wu was born in 1965. He obtained his Ph.D. degree in 1994 from the Institute of System Science, CAS. From 1994 to 1999 he was a postdoctoral researcher. His research interests include formal specification and verification, automatic reasoning, logic programming.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN GERMANY AND AUSTRIA:A CASE STUDY IN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES MODELLING

Industrial production series are volatile and often cyclical. Time series models can be used toestablish certain stylized facts, such as trends and cycles, which may be present in these series. Incertain situations, it is also possible that common factors, which may have an interesting interpretation,can be detected in production series. Series from two neighboring countries with close economicrelationships, such as Germany and Austria, are especially likely to exhibit such joint stylized facts.

A Special MJO Event with a Double Kelvin Wave Structure

The second Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）event during the field campaign of the Dynamics of the MJO/Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011（DYNAMO/CINDY2011）exhibi ted an unusual double rainband structure.Using a wavenumber-frequency spectral filtering method,we unveil that this double rainband structure arises primarily from the Kelvin wave component.The zonal phase speed of the double rainbands is about 7.9 degree per day in the equatorial Indian Ocean,being in the range of convectively coupled Kelvin wave phase speeds.The convection and circulation anomalies associated with the Kelvin wave component are characterized by two anomalous convective cells,with low-level westerly（easterly）and high（low）pressure anomalies to the west（east）of the convective centers,and opposite wind and pressure anomalies in the upper troposphere.Such a zonal wind–pressure phase relationship is consistent with the equatorial free-wave dynamics.While the freeatmospheric circulation was dominated by the first baroclinic mode vertical structure,moisture and vertical motion in the boundary layer led the convection.The convection and circulation structures derived based on the conventional MJO filter show a different characteristic.For example,the phase speed is slower（about 5.9 degree per day）,and there were no double convective branches.This suggests that MJO generally involves multi-scales and it is incomplete to extract its signals by using the conventional filtering technique.

The impact of EV71 vaccination program on hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province,China:A negative control study

Objective:To estimate the potential causal impact of Enterovirus A71(EV71)vaccination program on the reduction of EV71-infected hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Zhejiang Province.Methods:We utilized the longitudinal surveillance dataset of HFMD and EV71 vaccination in Zhejiang Province during 2010-2019.We estimated vaccine efficacy using a Bayesian structured time series(BSTS)model,and employed a negative control outcome(NCO)model to detect unmeasured confounding and reveal potential causal association.Results:We estimated that 20,132 EV71 cases(95%CI:16,733,23,532)were prevented by vaccination program during 2017-2019,corresponding to a reduction of 29%(95%CI:24%,34%).The effectiveness of vaccination increased annually,with reductions of 11%(95%CI:6%,16%)in 2017 and 66%(95%CI:61%,71%)in 2019.Children under 5 years old obtained greater benefits compared to those over 5 years.Cities with higher vaccination coverage experienced a sharper EV71 reduction compared to those with lower coverage.The NCO model detected no confounding factors in the association between vaccination and EV71 cases reduction.

Structural analysis and forecast of gold price returns

Gold has multiple attributes and its price is affected by various factors in the market.This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the gold price returns and its affecting factors.Then we use the STL-ETS,neural network and Bayesian structural time series model to predict the gold price returns,and compare their performance with the benchmark models.The results show that the shocks of crude oil returns and VIX have the positive effect on gold price returns,the shocks of the US dollar index have the negative effect on gold price returns.And the fluctuation of gold price returns mainly depends on crude oil price returns shocks.STL-ETS model can accurately fit the fluctuation trend of the gold price returns and improve prediction accuracy.

Adaptive Stabilization of Neural Control for Robot Trajectory Tracking

A neural network (NN) based adaptive control law is proposed for the tracking control of an n link robot manipulator with unknown dynamic nonlinearities. Basis function like nets are employed to approximate the plant nonlinearities, and the bound on the NN reconstruction error is assumed to be unknown. The proposed NN based adaptive control approach integrates an NN approach with an adaptive implementation of discrete variable structure control with a simple estimation law to estimate the upper bound on the NN reconstruction error and an additional control input to be updated as a function of the estimate. Lyapunov stability theory is used to prove the uniform ultimate boundedness of the tracking error.

Using state space models as a statistical impact measurement of survey redesigns: a case study of the labour force survey of the Australian Bureau of Statistics

The goals of any major business transformation programme in an official statistical agency often include improving data collection efficiency,data processing methodologies and data quality.However,the achievement of such improvements may have transitional statistical impacts that could be misinterpreted as real-world changes if they are not measured and handled appropriately.This paper describes a development work that sought to explore the design and analysis of a times-series experiment that measured the statistical impacts that sometimes occur during survey redesigns.The Labour Force Survey(LFS)of the Australian Bureau of Statistics(ABS)was used as a case study.In the present study:(1)A large-scale field experiment was designed and conducted that allowed the outgoing and the incoming surveys to run in parallel for some periods to measure the impacts of any changes to the survey process;and(2)The precision of the impact measurement was continuously improved while the new survey design was being implemented.The state space modelling(SSM)technique was adopted as the main approach,as it provides an efficient impact measurement.This approach enabled sampling error structure to be incorporated in the time-series intervention analysis.The approach was also able to be extended to take advantage of the availability of other related data sources(e.g.,the data obtained from the parallel data collection process)to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the impact measurement.As stated above,the LFS was used as a case study;however,the models and methods developed in this study could be extended to other surveys.