In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is propo...In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is proposed to solve the problem of the extreme weather of traffic, and three scenarios (i.e. 10%, 20% and 30%) of reductions of traffic flow quantity and pollutant emission are examined. The results demonstrate that the medium-type coach will be the promising selection under different scenarios especially in the extreme conditions and the traffic flow reduction scenarios are not the better option for the decision owing to the same cost under the different reduction levels. Moreover, encouraging the medium-type coach traveling and restricting the small vehicle driving would be attractive alternatives for the extreme situation. The proposed model would provide reasonable references for decision makers.展开更多
Due to the size effects of rockfill materials, the settlement difference between numerical simulation and in situ monitoring of rockfill dams is a topic of general concern.The constitutive model parameters obtained fr...Due to the size effects of rockfill materials, the settlement difference between numerical simulation and in situ monitoring of rockfill dams is a topic of general concern.The constitutive model parameters obtained from laboratory triaxial tests often underestimate the deformation of high rockfill dams.Therefore, constitutive model parameters obtained by back analysis were used to calculate and predict the long-term deformation of rockfill dams.Instead of using artificial neural networks (ANNs), the response surface method (RSM) was employed to replace the finite element simulation used in the optimization iteration.Only 27 training samples were required for RSM, improving computational efficiency compared with ANN, which required 300 training samples.RSM can be used to describe the relationship between the constitutive model parameters and dam settlements.The inversion results of the Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) show that the calculated settlements agree with the measured data, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of RSM.展开更多
Multifactorial correlation analysis is a new method used to predict the land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation This article introduces and applies the method to establish the function of the surface settle...Multifactorial correlation analysis is a new method used to predict the land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation This article introduces and applies the method to establish the function of the surface settlement rate （Vs） and the function of the time-dependent surface settlement （St） caused by groundwater exploitation, based on data acquired at three land subsidence monitoring stations in the Hanoi area of Vietnam. Comparison with actual monitoring data indicates that the prediction results are relatively close to the monitoring data. From this, we conclude that multifactorial correlation analysis is a reliable method and can be used to predict future land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Hanoi.展开更多
Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone has been considered as a potential host rock for geological radioactive waste disposal in France(Cigéo project).During the exploitation phase(100 years),the stability of drifts(e.g...Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone has been considered as a potential host rock for geological radioactive waste disposal in France(Cigéo project).During the exploitation phase(100 years),the stability of drifts(e.g.galleries/alveoli)within the disposal is assured by the liner,which includes two layers:concrete arch segment and compressible material.The latter exhibits a significant deformation capacity(about 50%)under low stress(<3 MPa).Although the response of these underground structures can be governed by complex thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling,the creep behavior of COx claystone has been considered as the main factor controlling the increase of stress state in the concrete liner and hence the long-term stability of drifts.Therefore,by focusing only on the purely mechanical behavior,this study aims at investigating the uncertainty effect of the COx claystone time-dependent properties on the stability of an alveolus of Cigéo during the exploitation period.To describe the creep behavior of COx claystone,we use Lemaitre’s viscoplastic model with three parameters whose uncertainties are identified from laboratory creep tests.For the reliability analysis,an extension of a well-known Kriging metamodeling technique is proposed to assess the exceedance probability of acceptable stress in the concrete liner of the alveolus.The open-source code Code_Aster is chosen for the direct numerical evaluations of the performance function.The Kriging-based reliability analysis elucidates the effect of the uncertainty of COx claystone on the long-term stability of the concrete liner.Moreover,the role of the compressible material layer between the concrete liner and the host rock is also highlighted.展开更多
Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Meth...Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.展开更多
The linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material is extended from the perfect plastic constitutive model to the Johnson-Cook and Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model, and from the constant loadi...The linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material is extended from the perfect plastic constitutive model to the Johnson-Cook and Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model, and from the constant loading to a time-dependent loading. The analysis is applied to two Rayleigh-Taylor instability experiments in aluminum and vanadium with peak pressures of 20 GPa and 90 GPa, and strain rates of 6 × 106 s−1 and 3 × 107 s−1 respectively. When the time-dependent loading and the Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model are used in the linear analysis, the analytic results are in close agreement with experiments quantitatively, which indicates that the method in this paper is applicable to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in aluminum and vanadium metal materials under high pressure and high strain rate. From these linear analyses, we find that the constitutive models and the loading process are of crucial importance in the linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material, and a better understanding of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metals is gained. These results will serve as important references for evolving high-pressure, high-strain-rate experiments and numerical simulations.展开更多
In modern processing of conducting materials, such as steel,the time-varying electromagnetic field plays a key role in obtaining the desired microstructure or eliminating solidification defects such as porosity and se...In modern processing of conducting materials, such as steel,the time-varying electromagnetic field plays a key role in obtaining the desired microstructure or eliminating solidification defects such as porosity and segregation in cast billets. Up to now,few studies on the induced electromagnetic force （also called the Lorentz force） field in liquid metal have been reported. Compared with the magnetic field, the induced force field is the real and only direct cause for flow control. The electromagnetic force is comprised of two components. One is time-independent and the other is time- dependent. The time-dependent component varies with time in both amplitude and direction. When it reaches the extreme value,it can be one dozen times larger than the time-independent component. In this paper, a new method to quantitatively describe the induced electromagnetic force in liquid metal under a harmonic electromagnetic field,including both its time- independent and dependent components, was proposed based on the formula derivation from the data of amplitude and phase angle. Through this method ,the features of the time-dependent component were discussed, including the directions of rotation and the long axis. As a result, the force pattern was described. With two example calculations, the method was explained in detail. The results of both examples show that the force field in liquid metal can be divided into several regions with different force features. Example 1 shows the effect of coil position on the evolution of the force field pattern in liquid metal. Example 2 is a kind of stirring by the travelling magnetic field ,whose results present the sub-structures in metal and show that most of them have almost the same rotating direction.展开更多
Rock rebound relaxation deformation,or even rock burst,caused by the excavation of dam base and abutment or high rock slope affects their stability and results in the fall of mechanical properties of the rock.So an in...Rock rebound relaxation deformation,or even rock burst,caused by the excavation of dam base and abutment or high rock slope affects their stability and results in the fall of mechanical properties of the rock.So an inverse analysis method was proposed in this paper to establish the time-dependent model of deformation modulus caused by excavation rebound.The basic principle is based on the combination of observed data of the excavation rebound deformation of dam abutment or rock slope,and the calculated rebound deformation by FEM under ground stress at the corresponding time in the excavation process.The norm of the residuals of observed data and calculated data are taken as the objective function.Accordingly,the time-dependent model of bedrock deformation modulus can be established.The method displays its significance in the design of excavation,construction and operation management of dam base and high slope.展开更多
Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is a representative glacier in the inland areas of Central Asia and is the only Chinese reference glacier in the World Glacier Monitoring Service. In this study, we explored multi-decadal variatio...Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is a representative glacier in the inland areas of Central Asia and is the only Chinese reference glacier in the World Glacier Monitoring Service. In this study, we explored multi-decadal variations in the flow velocity of the glacier and the influencing factors based on continuous field observations and path coefficient analysis. Results show that the glacier flow velocity decreased from 5.5 m/a in 1980/1981 to 3.3 m/a in 2010/2011. The annual variation in the direction of glacier flow velocity in the western branch and eastern branch was less than 1°–3°, and the change of glacier flow velocity in the western branch was more dramatic than that in the eastern branch. Glacier flow velocity was influenced by glacier morphology（including glacier area, glacier length, and ice thickness）, glacier mass balance and local climate conditions（air temperature and precipitation）, the glacier morphology being the leading factor. The long-term flow velocity data set of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 contributes to a better understanding of glacier dynamics within the context of climatic warming.展开更多
It is important to determine the safety lifetime of Multi-mode Time-Dependent Structural System(MTDSS). However, there is still a lack of corresponding analysis methods.Therefore, this paper establishes MTDSS safety l...It is important to determine the safety lifetime of Multi-mode Time-Dependent Structural System(MTDSS). However, there is still a lack of corresponding analysis methods.Therefore, this paper establishes MTDSS safety lifetime model firstly, and then proposes a Kriging surrogate model based method to estimate safety lifetime. The first step of proposed method is to construct the Kriging model of MTDSS performance function by using extremum learning function. By identifying possible extremum mode of MTDSS, the performance function of MTDSS can be equivalently transformed into the one of Single-mode Time-Dependent Structure(STDS).The second step is to use the Advanced First Failure Instant Learning Function(AFFILF) to train the Kriging model constructed in the first step, so that the convergent Kriging model can identify the possible First Failure Instant(FFI) of STDS. Then safety lifetime can be searched quickly by dichotomy search. By using AFFILF, the minimum instant that the state is not accurately identified by the current Kriging model is selected as the training point, which avoids the unnecessary calculation which may be introduced into the existing First Failure Instant Learning Function(FFILF).In addition, the Candidate Sample Pool(CSP) reduction strategy is also adopted. By adaptively deleting the random candidate sample points whose FFI have been accurately identified by the current Kriging model, the training efficiency is further improved. Three cases show that the proposed method is accurate and efficient.展开更多
The sensitivity of the D^0-D^-0 mixing parameters x and y is estimated in the wrong-sign decay D^0→K^＋π^-π^0 by time-dependent amplitude analysis. The resolution of the D^0 lifetime is essential in time-dependent ...The sensitivity of the D^0-D^-0 mixing parameters x and y is estimated in the wrong-sign decay D^0→K^＋π^-π^0 by time-dependent amplitude analysis. The resolution of the D^0 lifetime is essential in time-dependent Dalitz analyses. The Belle II detector, which aims to collect a total integrated luminosity of 50 ab^-1 of data, has σ = 140 fs in Monte Carlo studies, a factor of two improvement over that of Belle and Ba Bar, so the produced Dalitz signal Monte Carlo samples are smeared with this resolution. Then a time-dependent Dalitz plot fitting is performed on these smeared samples, and the sensitivity of D^0-D^-0 mixing parameters are σx = 0.057% and σy = 0.049%. These are about an order of magnitude improvement on current experimental results, without considering background effects.展开更多
文摘In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is proposed to solve the problem of the extreme weather of traffic, and three scenarios (i.e. 10%, 20% and 30%) of reductions of traffic flow quantity and pollutant emission are examined. The results demonstrate that the medium-type coach will be the promising selection under different scenarios especially in the extreme conditions and the traffic flow reduction scenarios are not the better option for the decision owing to the same cost under the different reduction levels. Moreover, encouraging the medium-type coach traveling and restricting the small vehicle driving would be attractive alternatives for the extreme situation. The proposed model would provide reasonable references for decision makers.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51579193)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guizhou Province(Grant No.[2016]1154)
文摘Due to the size effects of rockfill materials, the settlement difference between numerical simulation and in situ monitoring of rockfill dams is a topic of general concern.The constitutive model parameters obtained from laboratory triaxial tests often underestimate the deformation of high rockfill dams.Therefore, constitutive model parameters obtained by back analysis were used to calculate and predict the long-term deformation of rockfill dams.Instead of using artificial neural networks (ANNs), the response surface method (RSM) was employed to replace the finite element simulation used in the optimization iteration.Only 27 training samples were required for RSM, improving computational efficiency compared with ANN, which required 300 training samples.RSM can be used to describe the relationship between the constitutive model parameters and dam settlements.The inversion results of the Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) show that the calculated settlements agree with the measured data, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of RSM.
基金supported by Vietnam National Funds of Education and Training
文摘Multifactorial correlation analysis is a new method used to predict the land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation This article introduces and applies the method to establish the function of the surface settlement rate （Vs） and the function of the time-dependent surface settlement （St） caused by groundwater exploitation, based on data acquired at three land subsidence monitoring stations in the Hanoi area of Vietnam. Comparison with actual monitoring data indicates that the prediction results are relatively close to the monitoring data. From this, we conclude that multifactorial correlation analysis is a reliable method and can be used to predict future land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Hanoi.
文摘Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone has been considered as a potential host rock for geological radioactive waste disposal in France(Cigéo project).During the exploitation phase(100 years),the stability of drifts(e.g.galleries/alveoli)within the disposal is assured by the liner,which includes two layers:concrete arch segment and compressible material.The latter exhibits a significant deformation capacity(about 50%)under low stress(<3 MPa).Although the response of these underground structures can be governed by complex thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling,the creep behavior of COx claystone has been considered as the main factor controlling the increase of stress state in the concrete liner and hence the long-term stability of drifts.Therefore,by focusing only on the purely mechanical behavior,this study aims at investigating the uncertainty effect of the COx claystone time-dependent properties on the stability of an alveolus of Cigéo during the exploitation period.To describe the creep behavior of COx claystone,we use Lemaitre’s viscoplastic model with three parameters whose uncertainties are identified from laboratory creep tests.For the reliability analysis,an extension of a well-known Kriging metamodeling technique is proposed to assess the exceedance probability of acceptable stress in the concrete liner of the alveolus.The open-source code Code_Aster is chosen for the direct numerical evaluations of the performance function.The Kriging-based reliability analysis elucidates the effect of the uncertainty of COx claystone on the long-term stability of the concrete liner.Moreover,the role of the compressible material layer between the concrete liner and the host rock is also highlighted.
文摘Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.
文摘The linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material is extended from the perfect plastic constitutive model to the Johnson-Cook and Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model, and from the constant loading to a time-dependent loading. The analysis is applied to two Rayleigh-Taylor instability experiments in aluminum and vanadium with peak pressures of 20 GPa and 90 GPa, and strain rates of 6 × 106 s−1 and 3 × 107 s−1 respectively. When the time-dependent loading and the Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model are used in the linear analysis, the analytic results are in close agreement with experiments quantitatively, which indicates that the method in this paper is applicable to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in aluminum and vanadium metal materials under high pressure and high strain rate. From these linear analyses, we find that the constitutive models and the loading process are of crucial importance in the linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material, and a better understanding of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metals is gained. These results will serve as important references for evolving high-pressure, high-strain-rate experiments and numerical simulations.
文摘In modern processing of conducting materials, such as steel,the time-varying electromagnetic field plays a key role in obtaining the desired microstructure or eliminating solidification defects such as porosity and segregation in cast billets. Up to now,few studies on the induced electromagnetic force （also called the Lorentz force） field in liquid metal have been reported. Compared with the magnetic field, the induced force field is the real and only direct cause for flow control. The electromagnetic force is comprised of two components. One is time-independent and the other is time- dependent. The time-dependent component varies with time in both amplitude and direction. When it reaches the extreme value,it can be one dozen times larger than the time-independent component. In this paper, a new method to quantitatively describe the induced electromagnetic force in liquid metal under a harmonic electromagnetic field,including both its time- independent and dependent components, was proposed based on the formula derivation from the data of amplitude and phase angle. Through this method ,the features of the time-dependent component were discussed, including the directions of rotation and the long axis. As a result, the force pattern was described. With two example calculations, the method was explained in detail. The results of both examples show that the force field in liquid metal can be divided into several regions with different force features. Example 1 shows the effect of coil position on the evolution of the force field pattern in liquid metal. Example 2 is a kind of stirring by the travelling magnetic field ,whose results present the sub-structures in metal and show that most of them have almost the same rotating direction.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.50539110, 50809025,50539010,50579010,50539030)the National Science and Technology Supporting Plan (Grant Nos.20006BAC14B03,2008BAB29B06,2008BAB29B03)
文摘Rock rebound relaxation deformation,or even rock burst,caused by the excavation of dam base and abutment or high rock slope affects their stability and results in the fall of mechanical properties of the rock.So an inverse analysis method was proposed in this paper to establish the time-dependent model of deformation modulus caused by excavation rebound.The basic principle is based on the combination of observed data of the excavation rebound deformation of dam abutment or rock slope,and the calculated rebound deformation by FEM under ground stress at the corresponding time in the excavation process.The norm of the residuals of observed data and calculated data are taken as the objective function.Accordingly,the time-dependent model of bedrock deformation modulus can be established.The method displays its significance in the design of excavation,construction and operation management of dam base and high slope.
基金funded the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41501010, 41401611)the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (41121001)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is a representative glacier in the inland areas of Central Asia and is the only Chinese reference glacier in the World Glacier Monitoring Service. In this study, we explored multi-decadal variations in the flow velocity of the glacier and the influencing factors based on continuous field observations and path coefficient analysis. Results show that the glacier flow velocity decreased from 5.5 m/a in 1980/1981 to 3.3 m/a in 2010/2011. The annual variation in the direction of glacier flow velocity in the western branch and eastern branch was less than 1°–3°, and the change of glacier flow velocity in the western branch was more dramatic than that in the eastern branch. Glacier flow velocity was influenced by glacier morphology（including glacier area, glacier length, and ice thickness）, glacier mass balance and local climate conditions（air temperature and precipitation）, the glacier morphology being the leading factor. The long-term flow velocity data set of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 contributes to a better understanding of glacier dynamics within the context of climatic warming.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52075442)the National Science and Technology Major Project(2017-Ⅳ-0009-0046)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51975476)。
文摘It is important to determine the safety lifetime of Multi-mode Time-Dependent Structural System(MTDSS). However, there is still a lack of corresponding analysis methods.Therefore, this paper establishes MTDSS safety lifetime model firstly, and then proposes a Kriging surrogate model based method to estimate safety lifetime. The first step of proposed method is to construct the Kriging model of MTDSS performance function by using extremum learning function. By identifying possible extremum mode of MTDSS, the performance function of MTDSS can be equivalently transformed into the one of Single-mode Time-Dependent Structure(STDS).The second step is to use the Advanced First Failure Instant Learning Function(AFFILF) to train the Kriging model constructed in the first step, so that the convergent Kriging model can identify the possible First Failure Instant(FFI) of STDS. Then safety lifetime can be searched quickly by dichotomy search. By using AFFILF, the minimum instant that the state is not accurately identified by the current Kriging model is selected as the training point, which avoids the unnecessary calculation which may be introduced into the existing First Failure Instant Learning Function(FFILF).In addition, the Candidate Sample Pool(CSP) reduction strategy is also adopted. By adaptively deleting the random candidate sample points whose FFI have been accurately identified by the current Kriging model, the training efficiency is further improved. Three cases show that the proposed method is accurate and efficient.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(11475164,11475169,11675166)
文摘The sensitivity of the D^0-D^-0 mixing parameters x and y is estimated in the wrong-sign decay D^0→K^＋π^-π^0 by time-dependent amplitude analysis. The resolution of the D^0 lifetime is essential in time-dependent Dalitz analyses. The Belle II detector, which aims to collect a total integrated luminosity of 50 ab^-1 of data, has σ = 140 fs in Monte Carlo studies, a factor of two improvement over that of Belle and Ba Bar, so the produced Dalitz signal Monte Carlo samples are smeared with this resolution. Then a time-dependent Dalitz plot fitting is performed on these smeared samples, and the sensitivity of D^0-D^-0 mixing parameters are σx = 0.057% and σy = 0.049%. These are about an order of magnitude improvement on current experimental results, without considering background effects.
