TIME-SERIES MODELI NG AND FAULT FORECAST STUDY ON SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF LUBRICATING OIL

The application of ti me-series modeling and forecasting method to the spectral analysis for lubricat ing oil of mechanical equipment is discussed. The AR model is used to perform a time-series modeling and forecasting analysis for the spectral analysis data co llected from aero-engines. In the oil condition monitoring field of mechanical equipment, the use of the method of time-series analysis has rarely been report ed. As indicated in the satisfactory example, a practical method for condition m onitoring and fault forecasting of mechanical equipment has been achieved.

Time-Series Modeling and Prediction of Global Monthly Absolute Temperature for Environmental Decision Making

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined （DSC） approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average （SARIMA） models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term （10-year） environmental planning and decision making.

Oil-Price Forecasting Based on Various Univariate Time-Series Models

Time-series-based forecasting is essential to determine how past events affect future events. This paper compares the performance accuracy of different time-series models for oil prices. Three types of univariate models are discussed: the exponential smoothing (ES), Holt-Winters (HW) and autoregressive intergrade moving average (ARIMA) models. To determine the best model, six different strategies were applied as selection criteria to quantify these models’ prediction accuracies. This comparison should help policy makers and industry marketing strategists select the best forecasting method in oil market. The three models were compared by applying them to the time series of regular oil prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. The comparison indicated that the HW model performed better than the ES model for a prediction with a confidence interval of 95%. However, the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model yielded the best results, leading us to conclude that this sophisticated and robust model outperformed other simple yet flexible models in oil market.

Weighted Time-Variant Slide Fuzzy Time-Series Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecast plays an important role in the day-to-day operation and scheduling of generating units. Season and temperature are the most important factors that affect the load change, but random factors such as big sport events or popular TV shows can change demand consumption in particular hours, which will lead to sudden load changes. A weighted time-variant slide fuzzy time-series model (WTVS) for short-term load forecasting is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy. The WTVS model is divided into three parts, including the data preprocessing, the trend training and the load forecasting. In the data preprocessing phase, the impact of random factors will be weakened by smoothing the historical data. In the trend training and load forecasting phase, the seasonal factor and the weighted historical data are introduced into the Time-variant Slide Fuzzy Time-series Models (TVS) for short-term load forecasting. The WTVS model is tested on the load of the National Electric Power Company in Jordan. Results show that the proposed WTVS model achieves a significant improvement in load forecasting accuracy as compared to TVS models.

Modeling urban redevelopment:A novel approach using time-series remote sensing data and machine learning

Accurate mapping and timely monitoring of urban redevelopment are pivotal for urban studies and decisionmakers to foster sustainable urban development.Traditional mapping methods heavily depend on field surveys and subjective questionnaires,yielding less objective,reliable,and timely data.Recent advancements in Geographic Information Systems(GIS)and remote-sensing technologies have improved the identification and mapping of urban redevelopment through quantitative analysis using satellite-based observations.Nonetheless,challenges persist,particularly concerning accuracy and significant temporal delays.This study introduces a novel approach to modeling urban redevelopment,leveraging machine learning algorithms and remote-sensing data.This methodology can facilitate the accurate and timely identification of urban redevelopment activities.The study’s machine learning model can analyze time-series remote-sensing data to identify spatio-temporal and spectral patterns related to urban redevelopment.The model is thoroughly evaluated,and the results indicate that it can accurately capture the time-series patterns of urban redevelopment.This research’s findings are useful for evaluating urban demographic and economic changes,informing policymaking and urban planning,and contributing to sustainable urban development.The model can also serve as a foundation for future research on early-stage urban redevelopment detection and evaluation of the causes and impacts of urban redevelopment.

Improving model performance in mapping cropland soil organic matter using time-series remote sensing data

Faced with increasing global soil degradation,spatially explicit data on cropland soil organic matter(SOM)provides crucial data for soil carbon pool accounting,cropland quality assessment and the formulation of effective management policies.As a spatial information prediction technique,digital soil mapping(DSM)has been widely used to spatially map soil information at different scales.However,the accuracy of digital SOM maps for cropland is typically lower than for other land cover types due to the inherent difficulty in precisely quantifying human disturbance.To overcome this limitation,this study systematically assessed a framework of“information extractionfeature selection-model averaging”for improving model performance in mapping cropland SOM using 462 cropland soil samples collected in Guangzhou,China in 2021.The results showed that using the framework of dynamic information extraction,feature selection and model averaging could efficiently improve the accuracy of the final predictions(R^(2):0.48 to 0.53)without having obviously negative impacts on uncertainty.Quantifying the dynamic information of the environment was an efficient way to generate covariates that are linearly and nonlinearly related to SOM,which improved the R^(2)of random forest from 0.44 to 0.48 and the R^(2)of extreme gradient boosting from 0.37to 0.43.Forward recursive feature selection(FRFS)is recommended when there are relatively few environmental covariates(<200),whereas Boruta is recommended when there are many environmental covariates(>500).The Granger-Ramanathan model averaging approach could improve the prediction accuracy and average uncertainty.When the structures of initial prediction models are similar,increasing in the number of averaging models did not have significantly positive effects on the final predictions.Given the advantages of these selected strategies over information extraction,feature selection and model averaging have a great potential for high-accuracy soil mapping at any scales,so this approach can provide more reliable references for soil conservation policy-making.

Dangerous Driving Behavior Recognition and Prevention Using an Autoregressive Time-Series Model

Time headway is an important index used in characterizing dangerous driving behaviors. This research focuses on the decreasing tendency of time headway and investigates its association with crash occurrence. An autoregressive（AR） time-series model is improved and adopted to describe the dynamic variations of average daily time headway. Based on the model, a simple approach for dangerous driving behavior recognition is proposed with the aim of significantly decreasing headway. The effectivity of the proposed approach is validated by means of empirical data collected from a medium-sized city in northern China. Finally, a practical early-warning strategy focused on both the remaining life and low headway is proposed to remind drivers to pay attention to their driving behaviors and the possible occurrence of crash-related risks.

Study and application of monitoring plane displacement of a similarity model based on time-series images

In order to compensate for the deficiency of present methods of monitoring plane displacement in similarity model tests,such as inadequate real-time monitoring and more manual intervention,an effective monitoring method was proposed in this study,and the major steps of the monitoring method include:firstly,time-series images of the similarity model in the test were obtained by a camera,and secondly,measuring points marked as artificial targets were automatically tracked and recognized from time-series images.Finally,the real-time plane displacement field was calculated by the fixed magnification between objects and images under the specific conditions.And then the application device of the method was designed and tested.At the same time,a sub-pixel location method and a distortion error model were used to improve the measuring accuracy.The results indicate that this method may record the entire test,especially the detailed non-uniform deformation and sudden deformation.Compared with traditional methods this method has a number of advantages,such as greater measurement accuracy and reliability,less manual intervention,higher automation,strong practical properties,much more measurement information and so on.

A time-series modeling method based on the boosting gradient-descent theory

The forecasting of time-series data plays an important role in various domains. It is of significance in theory and application to improve prediction accuracy of the time-series data. With the progress in the study of time-series, time-series forecasting model becomes more complicated, and consequently great concern has been drawn to the techniques in designing the forecasting model. A modeling method which is easy to use by engineers and may generate good results is in urgent need. In this paper, a gradient-boost AR ensemble learning algorithm (AREL) is put forward. The effectiveness of AREL is assessed by theoretical analyses, and it is demonstrated that this method can build a strong predictive model by assembling a set of AR models. In order to avoid fitting exactly any single training example, an insensitive loss function is introduced in the AREL algorithm, and accordingly the influence of random noise is reduced. To further enhance the capability of AREL algorithm for non-stationary time-series, improve the robustness of algorithm, discourage overfitting, and reduce sensitivity of algorithm to parameter settings, a weighted kNN prediction method based on AREL algorithm is presented. The results of numerical testing on real data demonstrate that the proposed modeling method and prediction method are effective.

Detecting winter canola(Brassica napus) phenological stages using an improved shape-model method based on time-series UAV spectral data

Accurate information about phenological stages is essential for canola field management practices such as irrigation, fertilization, and harvesting. Previous studies in canola phenology monitoring focused mainly on the flowering stage, using its apparent structure features and colors. Additional phenological stages have been largely overlooked. The objective of this study was to improve a shape-model method(SMM) for extracting winter canola phenological stages from time-series top-of-canopy reflectance images collected by an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV). The transformation equation of the SMM was refined to account for the multi-peak features of the temporal dynamics of three vegetation indices(VIs)(NDVI, EVI, and CI). An experiment with various seeding scenarios was conducted, including four different seeding dates and three seeding densities. Three mathematical functions: asymmetric Gaussian function(AGF), Fourier function, and double logistic function, were employed to fit timeseries vegetation indices to extract information about phenological stages. The refined SMM effectively estimated the phenological stages of canola, with a minimum root mean square error(RMSE) of 3.7 days for all phenological stages. The AGF function provided the best fitting performance, as it captured multiple peaks in the growth dynamics characteristics for all seeding date scenarios using four scaling parameters. For the three selected VIs, CIred-edgeachieved the greatest accuracy in estimating the phenological stage dates. This study demonstrates the high potential of the refined SMM for estimating winter canola phenology.

Hierarchical multihead self-attention for time-series-based fault diagnosis

Fault diagnosis is important for maintaining the safety and effectiveness of chemical process.Considering the multivariate,nonlinear,and dynamic characteristic of chemical process,many time-series-based data-driven fault diagnosis methods have been developed in recent years.However,the existing methods have the problem of long-term dependency and are difficult to train due to the sequential way of training.To overcome these problems,a novel fault diagnosis method based on time-series and the hierarchical multihead self-attention(HMSAN)is proposed for chemical process.First,a sliding window strategy is adopted to construct the normalized time-series dataset.Second,the HMSAN is developed to extract the time-relevant features from the time-series process data.It improves the basic self-attention model in both width and depth.With the multihead structure,the HMSAN can pay attention to different aspects of the complicated chemical process and obtain the global dynamic features.However,the multiple heads in parallel lead to redundant information,which cannot improve the diagnosis performance.With the hierarchical structure,the redundant information is reduced and the deep local time-related features are further extracted.Besides,a novel many-to-one training strategy is introduced for HMSAN to simplify the training procedure and capture the long-term dependency.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by two chemical cases.The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a great performance on time-series industrial data and outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches.

Human induced dryland degradation in Ordos Plateau,China,revealed by multilevel statistical modeling of normalized difference vegetation index and rainfall time-series

Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） from remotely-sensed imagery, dividing human-induced land degradation from vegetation dynamics due to climate change is not a trivial task. This paper presented a multilevel statistical modeling of the NDVI-rainfall relationship to detect human-induced land degradation at local and landscape scales in the Ordos Plateau of Inner Mongolia, China, and recognized that anthropogenic activities result in either positive （land restoration and re-vegetation） or negative （degradation） trends. Linear regressions were used to assess the accuracy of the multi- level statistical model. The results show that： （1） land restoration was the dominant process in the Ordos Plateau between 1998 and 2012; （2） the effect of the statistical removal of precipitation revealed areas of human-induced land degradation and improvement, the latter reflecting successful restoration projects and changes in land man- agement in many parts of the Ordos; （3） compared to a simple linear regression, multilevel statistical modeling could be used to analyze the relationship between the NDVI and rainfall and improve the accuracy of detecting the effect of human activities. Additional factors should be included when analyzing the NDVI-rainfall relationship and detecting human-induced loss of vegetation cover in drylands to improve the accuracy of the approach and elimi- nate some observed non-significant residual trends.

Missing Value Imputation for Radar-Derived Time-Series Tracks of Aerial Targets Based on Improved Self-Attention-Based Network

The frequent missing values in radar-derived time-series tracks of aerial targets(RTT-AT)lead to significant challenges in subsequent data-driven tasks.However,the majority of imputation research focuses on random missing(RM)that differs significantly from common missing patterns of RTT-AT.The method for solving the RM may experience performance degradation or failure when applied to RTT-AT imputation.Conventional autoregressive deep learning methods are prone to error accumulation and long-term dependency loss.In this paper,a non-autoregressive imputation model that addresses the issue of missing value imputation for two common missing patterns in RTT-AT is proposed.Our model consists of two probabilistic sparse diagonal masking self-attention(PSDMSA)units and a weight fusion unit.It learns missing values by combining the representations outputted by the two units,aiming to minimize the difference between the missing values and their actual values.The PSDMSA units effectively capture temporal dependencies and attribute correlations between time steps,improving imputation quality.The weight fusion unit automatically updates the weights of the output representations from the two units to obtain a more accurate final representation.The experimental results indicate that,despite varying missing rates in the two missing patterns,our model consistently outperforms other methods in imputation performance and exhibits a low frequency of deviations in estimates for specific missing entries.Compared to the state-of-the-art autoregressive deep learning imputation model Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series(BRITS),our proposed model reduces mean absolute error(MAE)by 31%~50%.Additionally,the model attains a training speed that is 4 to 8 times faster when compared to both BRITS and a standard Transformer model when trained on the same dataset.Finally,the findings from the ablation experiments demonstrate that the PSDMSA,the weight fusion unit,cascade network design,and imputation loss enhance imputation performance and confirm the efficacy of our design.

Time-series gas prediction model using LS-SVR within a Bayesian framework

The traditional least squares support vector regression（LS-SVR）model,using cross validation to determine the regularization parameter and kernel parameter,is time-consuming.We propose a Bayesian evidence framework to infer the LS-SVR model parameters.Three levels Bayesian inferences are used to determine the model parameters,regularization hyper-parameters and tune the nuclear parameters by model comparison.On this basis,we established Bayesian LS-SVR time-series gas forecasting models and provide steps for the algorithm.The gas outburst data of a Hebi 10th mine working face is used to validate the model.The optimal embedding dimension and delay time of the time series were obtained by the smallest differential entropy method.Finally,within a MATLAB7.1 environment,we used actual coal gas data to compare the traditional LS-SVR and the Bayesian LS-SVR with LS-SVMlab1.5 Toolbox simulation.The results show that the Bayesian framework of an LS-SVR significantly improves the speed and accuracy of the forecast.

Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan

Background: Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. Methods: A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. Results: A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants’accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0)12, and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1)12, respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Conclusion: Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the accidents during the high-risk periods in order to control and decrease the rate of the injuries.

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Marine Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations Time-Series Forecasting Based on Multi-Factor Analysis and a Multi-Model Ensemble

Dissolved oxygen(DO)is an important indicator of aquaculture,and its accurate forecasting can effectively improve the quality of aquatic products.In this paper,a new DO hybrid forecasting model is proposed that includes three stages:multi-factor analysis,adaptive decomposition,and an optimizationbased ensemble.First,considering the complex factors affecting DO,the grey relational(GR)degree method is used to screen out the environmental factors most closely related to DO.The consideration of multiple factors makes model fusion more effective.Second,the series of DO,water temperature,salinity,and oxygen saturation are decomposed adaptively into sub-series by means of the empirical wavelet transform(EWT)method.Then,five benchmark models are utilized to forecast the sub-series of EWT decomposition.The ensemble weights of these five sub-forecasting models are calculated by particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm(PSOGSA).Finally,a multi-factor ensemble model for DO is obtained by weighted allocation.The performance of the proposed model is verified by timeseries data collected by the pacific islands ocean observing system(PacIOOS)from the WQB04 station at Hilo.The evaluation indicators involved in the experiment include the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE),Kling–Gupta efficiency(KGE),mean absolute percent error(MAPE),standard deviation of error(SDE),and coefficient of determination(R^(2)).Example analysis demonstrates that:①The proposed model can obtain excellent DO forecasting results;②the proposed model is superior to other comparison models;and③the forecasting model can be used to analyze the trend of DO and enable managers to make better management decisions.

Aquaporin-4-IgG-seropositive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders:progress of experimental models based on disease pathogenesis

Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders are neuroinflammatory demyelinating disorders that lead to permanent visual loss and motor dysfunction.To date,no effective treatment exists as the exact causative mechanism remains unknown.Therefore,experimental models of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders are essential for exploring its pathogenesis and in screening for therapeutic targets.Since most patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders are seropositive for IgG autoantibodies against aquaporin-4,which is highly expressed on the membrane of astrocyte endfeet,most current experimental models are based on aquaporin-4-IgG that initially targets astrocytes.These experimental models have successfully simulated many pathological features of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders,such as aquaporin-4 loss,astrocytopathy,granulocyte and macrophage infiltration,complement activation,demyelination,and neuronal loss;however,they do not fully capture the pathological process of human neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.In this review,we summarize the currently known pathogenic mechanisms and the development of associated experimental models in vitro,ex vivo,and in vivo for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders,suggest potential pathogenic mechanisms for further investigation,and provide guidance on experimental model choices.In addition,this review summarizes the latest information on pathologies and therapies for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders based on experimental models of aquaporin-4-IgG-seropositive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders,offering further therapeutic targets and a theoretical basis for clinical trials.

Application of Time-Series Model to Predict Groundwater Dynamic in Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

To study the groundwater dynamic in the typical region of Sanjiang Plain, long-term groundwater level observation data in the Honghe State Farm were collected and analyzed in this paper. The seasonal and long-term groundwater dynamic was explored. From 1996 to 2008, groundwater level kept declining due to intensive exploitation of groundwater resources for rice irrigation. A decline of nearly 5 m was found for almost all the monitoring wells. A time-series method was established to model the groundwater dynamic. Modeled results by time-series model showed that the groundwater level in this region would keep declining according to the current exploitation intensity. A total dropdown of 1.07 m would occur from 2009 to 2012. Time-series model can be used to model and forecast the groundwater dynamic with high accuracy. Measures including control on groundwater exploitation amount and application of water saving irrigation technique should be taken to prevent the continuing declining of groundwater in the Sanjiang Plain.

Exploiting fly models to investigate rare human neurological disorders

Rare neurological diseases,while individually are rare,collectively impact millions globally,leading to diverse and often severe neurological symptoms.Often attributed to genetic mutations that disrupt protein function or structure,understanding their genetic basis is crucial for accurate diagnosis and targeted therapies.To investigate the underlying pathogenesis of these conditions,researchers often use non-mammalian model organisms,such as Drosophila(fruit flies),which is valued for their genetic manipulability,cost-efficiency,and preservation of genes and biological functions across evolutionary time.Genetic tools available in Drosophila,including CRISPR-Cas9,offer a means to manipulate gene expression,allowing for a deep exploration of the genetic underpinnings of rare neurological diseases.Drosophila boasts a versatile genetic toolkit,rapid generation turnover,and ease of large-scale experimentation,making it an invaluable resource for identifying potential drug candidates.Researchers can expose flies carrying disease-associated mutations to various compounds,rapidly pinpointing promising therapeutic agents for further investigation in mammalian models and,ultimately,clinical trials.In this comprehensive review,we explore rare neurological diseases where fly research has significantly contributed to our understanding of their genetic basis,pathophysiology,and potential therapeutic implications.We discuss rare diseases associated with both neuron-expressed and glial-expressed genes.Specific cases include mutations in CDK19 resulting in epilepsy and developmental delay,mutations in TIAM1 leading to a neurodevelopmental disorder with seizures and language delay,and mutations in IRF2BPL causing seizures,a neurodevelopmental disorder with regression,loss of speech,and abnormal movements.And we explore mutations in EMC1 related to cerebellar atrophy,visual impairment,psychomotor retardation,and gain-of-function mutations in ACOX1 causing Mitchell syndrome.Loss-of-function mutations in ACOX1 result in ACOX1 deficiency,characterized by very-long-chain fatty acid accumulation and glial degeneration.Notably,this review highlights how modeling these diseases in Drosophila has provided valuable insights into their pathophysiology,offering a platform for the rapid identification of potential therapeutic interventions.Rare neurological diseases involve a wide range of expression systems,and sometimes common phenotypes can be found among different genes that cause abnormalities in neurons or glia.Furthermore,mutations within the same gene may result in varying functional outcomes,such as complete loss of function,partial loss of function,or gain-of-function mutations.The phenotypes observed in patients can differ significantly,underscoring the complexity of these conditions.In conclusion,Drosophila represents an indispensable and cost-effective tool for investigating rare neurological diseases.By facilitating the modeling of these conditions,Drosophila contributes to a deeper understanding of their genetic basis,pathophysiology,and potential therapies.This approach accelerates the discovery of promising drug candidates,ultimately benefiting patients affected by these complex and understudied diseases.

A promising approach for quantifying focal stroke modeling and assessing stroke progression:optical resolution photoacoustic microscopy photothrombosis

To investigate the mechanisms underlying the onset and progression of ischemic stroke,some methods have been proposed that can simultaneously monitor and create embolisms in the animal cerebral cortex.However,these methods often require complex systems and the effect of age on cerebral embolism has not been adequately studied,although ischemic stroke is strongly age-related.In this study,we propose an optical-resolution photoacoustic microscopy-based visualized photothrombosis methodology to create and monitor ischemic stroke in mice simultaneously using a 532 nm pulsed laser.We observed the molding process in mice of different ages and presented age-dependent vascular embolism differentiation.Moreover,we integrated optical coherence tomography angiography to investigate age-associated trends in cerebrovascular variability following a stroke.Our imaging data and quantitative analyses underscore the differential cerebrovascular responses to stroke in mice of different ages,thereby highlighting the technique's potential for evaluating cerebrovascular health and unraveling age-related mechanisms involved in ischemic strokes.