The Operational Forecasting of Total Precipitation in Flood Seasons (April to September) of 5 Years (1983-1987)

Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION We have discovered that there exists a good corresponding relationship between theanomalous axes of soil temperature at a depth of 1.6m in winter (December to February) andprecipitations in following flood season (Tang et al., 1982a). We have also designed a simplethermodynamical model and applied it to the forecasting of precipitations in the flood season(Tang et al., 1982 b,c). The practical forecast started from 1975. Before 1980, however, therewere only 40-50 stations in China for measuring the soil temperature at a 1.6m depth. Since1980, the stations have been increased to a total of about 180, but no available mean valueshad been obtained from newly added stations before 1982. Therefore the analysis and map-ping of anomalies of soil temperature was not performed until 1983, and from then on theprecision of analysis has been greatly improved. The following is the actual situation of forecast in five years from 1983 to 1987.

Use of Total Precipitable Water Classification of A Priori Error and Quality Control in Atmospheric Temperature and Water Vapor Sounding Retrieval

This study investigates the use of dynamic a priori error information according to atmospheric moistness and the use of quality controls in temperature and water vapor profile retrievals from hyperspectral infrared （IR） sounders. Temperature and water vapor profiles are retrieved from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder （AIRS） radiance measurements by applying a physical iterative method using regression retrieval as the first guess. Based on the dependency of first-guess errors on the degree of atmospheric moistness, the a priori first-guess errors classified by total precipitable water （TPW） are applied in the AIRS physical retrieval procedure. Compared to the retrieval results from a fixed a priori error, boundary layer moisture retrievals appear to be improved via TPW classification of a priori first-guess errors. Six quality control （QC） tests, which check non-converged or bad retrievals, large residuals, high terrain and desert areas, and large temperature and moisture deviations from the first guess regression retrieval, are also applied in the AIRS physical retrievals. Significantly large errors are found for the retrievals rejected by these six QCs, and the retrieval errors are substantially reduced via QC over land, which suggest the usefulness and high impact of the QCs, especially over land. In conclusion, the use of dynamic a priori error information according to atmospheric moistness, and the use of appropriate QCs dealing with the geographical information and the deviation from the first-guess as well as the conventional inverse performance are suggested to improve temperature and moisture retrievals and their applications.

Evaluation of Total Precipitable Water over East Asia from FY-3A/VIRR Infrared Radiances

Satellite retrieval of atmospheric water vapor is intended to further understand the role played by the energy and water cycle to determine the Earth's weather and climate.The algorithm for operational retrieval of total precipitable water (TPW) from the visible and infrared radiometer (VIRR) onboard Fengyun 3A (FY-3A) employs a split window technique for clear sky radiances over land and oceans during both day and night.The retrieved TPW is compared with that from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite and data from radiosonde observations (RAOB).During the study period,comparisons show that the FY-3A TPW is in general agreement with the gradients and distributions from the Terra TPW.Their zonal mean difference over East Asia is smaller in the daytime than at night,and the main difference occurs in the complex terrain at mid latitude near 30°N.Compared with RAOB,the zonal FY-3A and the Terra TPW have a moist bias at low latitudes and a dry bias at mid and high latitudes;in addition,the FY-3A TPW performs slightly better in zonal mean biases and the diurnal cycle.The temporal variation of the FY-3A and the Terra TPW generally fits the RAOB TPW with the FY-3A more accurate at night while Terra TPW more accurate during the daytime.Comparisons of correlations,root mean square differences and standard deviations indicate that the FY-3A TPW series is more consistent with the RAOB TPW at selected stations.As a result,the FY-3A TPW has some advantages over East Asia in both spatial and temporal dimensions.

Character of Convective Systems Producing Short-Term Heavy Precipitation in Central China Revealed by Kilometer and Minute Interval Observations

Accurate forecasting of heavy precipitation in central China is still a challenge,within which a key issue is our still incomplete understanding of the convective systems(CSs)responsible for such events.In this study,through use of an iterative rain-cell tracking algorithm,the macroscale characteristics(scale,intensity,duration,etc.)of the CSs that produced 595 short-term heavy precipitation events in Hunan Province,central China,are quantitatively analyzed,based on radar reflectivity,echo top,and rainfall observations at 1-km and 6-min intervals in April-September of 2016-2018.The results show that CSs present significant seasonal and diurnal features.Spring CSs usually cover a larger echo area with stronger convective cores and thus generate more precipitation than summer CSs,though summer CSs develop more vigorously and frequently.CSs initiated at 1400-1600 local time are characterized by the strongest convection and a smaller spatiotemporal scale,causing violent and transient showers with typical areal precipitation of 0.5-1 mm km^(−2),but less total precipitation.Further analyses of the relationships among the scale,intensity,duration,and total precipitation of CSs reveal that the convective intensity is linearly correlated to the spatiotemporal scale of CSs,with the duration increasing on average by 0.0372 h dBZ^(−1);the echo area is significantly correlated to the total precipitation,and the duration and rainfall amount are connected with the area expansion rate(AER)of CSs:when the AER exceeds 50%,CSs expand rapidly with increasing total precipitation,but the duration is shorter.These findings provide a helpful reference for the forecasting of short-term heavy precipitation induced by CSs in central China.

A Forecasting Model of Vector Similarity in Phase Space for Flood and Drought over the Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Plain in China

To represent well the characteristics of temporal and spatial distributions, chart of 3-dekad moving total precipitation is proposed in this paper first. Then this kind of chart is expanded in terms of Chebyshev polynomial at irregular grids, and the quantitative representation of precipitation is got. Finally the Chebyshev coefficients are forecasted by using the forecasting method of vector similarity in phase space proposed by Zhou (1992). Using above mentioned procedures temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation over the Huanghe-- Huaihe-- H aihe Plain in China are forecasted.

REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER CHINA

The regional characteristics of precipitation anomalies of total summer precipitation of June, July and August and individual monthly precipitation are analyzed by using the method of Varimax EOF and correlation analysis.The data set used is the precipitation of a 5°Lat.×5°Long.spatial uniform network over China in the period of 1959 to 1994. The analysis of total summer precipitation shows that the most significant regional characteristic is the existence of negative correlation in precipitation anomalies between the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and the Huaihe River Valley(the LRCH region)and the middle reaches of the Huanghe River Valley(the MRH region),and between the LRCH region and South China.The precipitation anomaly over the Sichuan Basin is negatively correlated with that over eastern part of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and that over the LRCH region.The regional characteristics of summer precipitation anomalies in western China are that there exists negative correlation between the summer precipitation anomalies over the southern part of the central and eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and that over its northern part.There also exists positive correlation between the southern part of the central and eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the eastern part of North China and the southern part of Northeast China.The above spatial correlation modes have significant periods of about 3 years and ten years.The analysis of the monthly precipitation shows that in June there exists positive correlation among the precipitation anomalies over the LRCH region,the eastern part of North China and Northeast China.In July, the precipitations in the MRH region and the LRCH region are negatively correlated.The regional characteristic of precipitation anomalies in August is very similar to that of the total summer precipitation anomalies.