Analysis on Trade Gains from the Economic Dual Circulation in China

Accelerating the building of a new development pattern with domestic market as the mainstay and domestic and international markets reinforcing each other is a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core in light of changes in the development stage,environment and conditions in China.Trade gains are an important indicator of the development trend of domestic and international circulations for a country.With the quantitative model of trade gains containing the multi-sectoral input-output relations,this paper estimates the trade gains from the economic dual circulation in China between 1987 and 2017,based on the kernel density estimation and Markov chain,and the main findings are as follows.(1)The trade gains from the domestic circulation in China showed a downward trend,while the trade gains from the international circulation presented a trend of first rising and then declining.But the former still outweighed the latter.(2)Compared with the international circulation,the continuity,spatial correlation effect and rising potential of the trade gains from China's domestic circulation were greater.(3)There was no positive spatial correlation effect between the trade gains from the domestic and those from the international circulation.China should make overall plans for opening up both externally and internally,and unblock sticking points between the two circulations,so as to realize the positive interaction of the trade gains from the dual circulation,and accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with domestic market as the mainstay and domestic and international markets reinforcing each other.

Territory-based and Ownershipbased Gains from Trade under the Global Production Network——An Empirical Study Based on China

Under global production network,export cannot represent a country's gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of export after deducting the input of intermediate goods and re-export after value-added return.Ownership-based gains from trade refer to the remainder of territory-based gains from trade after further deducting the trade in value added(TVA) realized through the inflow of foreign factors.By creating a multicountry input and output model,this paper calculates the territory-based gains from trade,ownership-based gains from trade,and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's export,as well as valueadded return and territory-based gains from trade for foreign countries realized through China's import.This paper has arrived at the following conclusions:behind China's status as the largest goods exporting country in the world,most of Chinese exports contribute to the gains of foreign countries;value addition for foreign countries realized through China's export and value-added return realized through China's import mostly come from Taiwan region,Japan and South Korea in East Asia;a considerable part of gains from trade for the United States realized through China-US trade is achieved through indirect trade.

Flying with the Dragon:Estimating Developing Countries’Gains from China’s Imports

As a large trading nation,China competes with importing countries'domestic and thirdcountry markets but also creates growth opportunities fo r exporters.Most studies on China trade shocks or "China shocks"focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies.The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China-China as the largest importer,rather than as an exporter.We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018.Using detailed export and employment data,we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure.We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters.On average,our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018,which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries.Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.

No Threshold for Free Trade

In commemoration of the 15th anniversary of China’s accession to the WTO,Beijing Review reporter Deng Yaqing interviewed Xue Rongjiu,Vice Chairman of China Society for WTO Studies,on China’s gains from and contributions to the multilateral trading system,market economy status,surrogate country issues and mounting anti-globalization and trade protection.Edited excerpts of the interview follow: