Based on trade in value-added, this paper has estimated the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of China's various manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2011 and compared with the RCA indexes measured using conve...Based on trade in value-added, this paper has estimated the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of China's various manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2011 and compared with the RCA indexes measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach. Results indicate that: (1) the RCA index measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach has underestimated China's comparative advantage of labor-intensive sectors but overestimated China's comparative advantage in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive manufacturing sectors, giving rise to a serious misjudgment. (2) The RCA measured using value-added approach shows that in the industry chain layout of global manufacturing sectors, China's comparative advantage is still concentrated in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors but has signs of weakening; in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive sectors, China is yet to develop any significant comparative advantage; there are signs that China is developing comparative advantage in capital-intensive sectors yet China's comparative disadvantage in knowledge and technology-intensive sectors has no significant tendency to improve. This result not only helps correct the misjudgment of China's competitiveness in manufacturing sectors based on conventional aggregate accounting approach but offers important policy implications for setting strategic directions and policies for China's manufacturing transition and upgrade.展开更多
Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country's trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY ...Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country's trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman's method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China's value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.展开更多
This paper explores the effects of China’s global value chain(GVC)participation on technological progress in trading-partner countries based on estimated data on value-added trade between China and 52 trading partner...This paper explores the effects of China’s global value chain(GVC)participation on technological progress in trading-partner countries based on estimated data on value-added trade between China and 52 trading partners.We find that,first,although China’s exports lowered the total factor productivity(TFP)of its trading partners(competitive effect),its imports greatly increased trading partners’TFP(effect of scale).This implies that China’s GVC participation is beneficial to its trading partners’technological progress in the form of a considerable technology dividend effect.Second,China’s export dividend effect compensates for the negative effect of Chinese competition on trading partners’technological progress;the innovation effects attributable to China’s imports reinforce the positive effects of scale on technological progress.When innovation is factored in,the China dividend thus becomes further reinforced.Third,China’s merchandise imports have a diminishing positive effect on technological progress in trading partners as geographical distance increases,but trade in services transcends geographical boundaries,and the positive technological progress effect of China’s service imports do not diminish as distance increases.We find that the“China dividend”from China’s GVC participation is a significant contributor to technological progress in partner nations,and China’s imports are conducive to innovation and technological progress in developed countries in the long run.展开更多
Based on the Worm Input-Output Database (WIOD), this paper conducts a forward-linkage decomposition of value-added in trade to estimate China's service value-added exports and its service sector's international co...Based on the Worm Input-Output Database (WIOD), this paper conducts a forward-linkage decomposition of value-added in trade to estimate China's service value-added exports and its service sector's international competitiveness during 2000- 2014. Result indicates that during the sample period, China's service exports measured by forward-linkage decomposition method accounted for around 35% in its total export. While the value of services exported directly through the service sector accounted for a falling share, the value of services exported through other sectors represented an increasing share. China ranks second in the world in terms of market share of service exports. However, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of China's service exports and export sophistication remains limited.展开更多
The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct an...The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.展开更多
The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization a...The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO_(2)emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO_(2)emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO_(2)emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.展开更多
Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China' s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calcula...Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China' s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China' s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.展开更多
Using a value-added accounting framework,we conducted empirical research to analyze product value-added in accordance with the principle of value-sourcing and value-absorption areas,so as to decode"the trade-como...Using a value-added accounting framework,we conducted empirical research to analyze product value-added in accordance with the principle of value-sourcing and value-absorption areas,so as to decode"the trade-comovement puzzle."As our study shows,value-added trade can provide a significant positive stimulus for the economic comovement,but it is marked by asymmetry between hub and spoke countries with the former having a pivotal role.Our analysis of cohesive subgroups indicates that cohesive subgroups and value-added trade are complementary.When bilateral countries belong to the same subgroup,the intensity of their value-added trade exerts an increasing influence on the economic comovement.China has adopted a non-equilibrium opening up strategy and has actively boosted value-added linkages with hub countries;its utilization of the correlative effect of economic growth will enable it to achieve convergence with the growth of high-income economies.At the same time,China is taking advantage of being the core node in the Belt and Road trade network and is continuing to boost the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative,providing channels for countries along the Belt and Road to integrate into the global value-added system of division of labor and building a global economic environment that features win-win collaboration and co-development.展开更多
By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three ...By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three economies for different sectors using real domestic trade in value-added and GVC position indices. In addition, valueadded trade is taken into consideration to identify the labor division characteristics of the four economies in the GVC, which led to the following findings: China participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the downstream yet shows a significant tendency to move upstream in technology-intensive sectors; Japan participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the upstream and boasts an advantage in technology-intensive sectors; the US participates in the multiple links of the GVC at the upstream with superiority in hightechnology sectors; the EU participates in the production and export of intermediate goods and final goods at both ends.展开更多
This study uses two different datasets to explore the stylized facts of interprovincial trade in China during the recent two decades. One dataset provides the magnitude of bilateral interprovincial goods trade calcula...This study uses two different datasets to explore the stylized facts of interprovincial trade in China during the recent two decades. One dataset provides the magnitude of bilateral interprovincial goods trade calculated using firms ' value-added tax invoices. The other supplies estimates of interprovincial trade using provincial input-output tables. We find that China has both a large value and a high growth rate of interprovincial trade, but there still exists a home bias in internal trade for most provinces. In addition, disaggregation by product shows that the manufacturing sector has the largest share of interprovincial trade and this share continues to grow. Finally, the spatial distribution of trade suggests that all provinces can be clustered into a smaller number of trade areas with large intra-cluster trade. Therefore, China's central government should make more effort to reduce local protection, stimulate domestic demand and coordinate interregional trade among local jurisdictions.展开更多
全球经济一体化的迅速发展客观上要求推广附加值贸易测算法(Trade in Value-Added,简称TiVA)。本文应用该法计算1995-2009年中国及35个行业的出口附加值,并与世界主要经济体对比,以更准确地判断中国在全球贸易体系中的地位,研究结论如下...全球经济一体化的迅速发展客观上要求推广附加值贸易测算法(Trade in Value-Added,简称TiVA)。本文应用该法计算1995-2009年中国及35个行业的出口附加值,并与世界主要经济体对比,以更准确地判断中国在全球贸易体系中的地位,研究结论如下:(1)15年间中国出口国内附加值率迅速下降,致使传统方法统计的中国出口规模"虚高"。(2)中国第一、三产业目前较高的国内附加值率受益于行业开放度不足;制造业中,纺织服装等6大出口行业整体竞争力值得肯定,化学制品业、基础金属及金属制品业缺乏出口竞争优势,电子与光学制造业目前缺乏面对激烈国际竞争的实力。(3)依据TiVA,中国仍然可以保有"头号"出口大国的地位,但领先优势远不如传统统计显示的明显。展开更多
基金Key Project of National Social Sciences Foundation"Transition and Upgrade of China’s Economic Structure under Global Value Chain"(11 AZD 002)Project of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation"Study on the Promotional Effect of Trade in Services on the Improvement of Status of China’s Yangtze River Delta Region in International Division of Labor"(Approval No.2013 M530809)
文摘Based on trade in value-added, this paper has estimated the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of China's various manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2011 and compared with the RCA indexes measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach. Results indicate that: (1) the RCA index measured using conventional aggregate accounting approach has underestimated China's comparative advantage of labor-intensive sectors but overestimated China's comparative advantage in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive manufacturing sectors, giving rise to a serious misjudgment. (2) The RCA measured using value-added approach shows that in the industry chain layout of global manufacturing sectors, China's comparative advantage is still concentrated in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors but has signs of weakening; in capital, knowledge and technology-intensive sectors, China is yet to develop any significant comparative advantage; there are signs that China is developing comparative advantage in capital-intensive sectors yet China's comparative disadvantage in knowledge and technology-intensive sectors has no significant tendency to improve. This result not only helps correct the misjudgment of China's competitiveness in manufacturing sectors based on conventional aggregate accounting approach but offers important policy implications for setting strategic directions and policies for China's manufacturing transition and upgrade.
基金Project of the National Natural Sciences Foundation"Study on Trade,Investment and Industrial Relocation Based on Value Chain for the Belt and Road Initiative"(Approval No.71441039)
文摘Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country's trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman's method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China's value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.
文摘This paper explores the effects of China’s global value chain(GVC)participation on technological progress in trading-partner countries based on estimated data on value-added trade between China and 52 trading partners.We find that,first,although China’s exports lowered the total factor productivity(TFP)of its trading partners(competitive effect),its imports greatly increased trading partners’TFP(effect of scale).This implies that China’s GVC participation is beneficial to its trading partners’technological progress in the form of a considerable technology dividend effect.Second,China’s export dividend effect compensates for the negative effect of Chinese competition on trading partners’technological progress;the innovation effects attributable to China’s imports reinforce the positive effects of scale on technological progress.When innovation is factored in,the China dividend thus becomes further reinforced.Third,China’s merchandise imports have a diminishing positive effect on technological progress in trading partners as geographical distance increases,but trade in services transcends geographical boundaries,and the positive technological progress effect of China’s service imports do not diminish as distance increases.We find that the“China dividend”from China’s GVC participation is a significant contributor to technological progress in partner nations,and China’s imports are conducive to innovation and technological progress in developed countries in the long run.
基金supported by the Key Projects of the National Social Science Foundation of China(NSSF)(Grant No.18VSJ056 and 14AZD058)Key Project of the Key Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education(Grant No.17JJD79001)
文摘Based on the Worm Input-Output Database (WIOD), this paper conducts a forward-linkage decomposition of value-added in trade to estimate China's service value-added exports and its service sector's international competitiveness during 2000- 2014. Result indicates that during the sample period, China's service exports measured by forward-linkage decomposition method accounted for around 35% in its total export. While the value of services exported directly through the service sector accounted for a falling share, the value of services exported through other sectors represented an increasing share. China ranks second in the world in terms of market share of service exports. However, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of China's service exports and export sophistication remains limited.
文摘The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.
文摘The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO_(2)emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO_(2)emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO_(2)emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.
基金under the research project "The Opening Policy and Industrial Upgrading in China:Theory,Empirics and Policy"(10JJD790009)sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China
文摘Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China' s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China' s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.
基金the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC)Major Project“Research on Developing a Mutual Beneficial and Win-Win System of Industry Supply Chain Cooperation”(Grant No.21ZDA095)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)General Project“Research on the Topological Structure of the International Trade Network and Its Impact on the Synchronization of the Economic Cycle”(Grant No.71973059)+1 种基金the Major Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Jiangsu Universities and Colleges“Research on Trade Facilitation,Intermediate Goods Import and Increase in Enterprise Value-Added Exports”(Grant No.2020SJZDA047)the Research Project of the Jiangsu 333 Project“Promoting High-Quality Development of an Open Economy by Facilitating Cross-Border Trade in Jiangsu Province”(Grant No.BRA2020075)。
文摘Using a value-added accounting framework,we conducted empirical research to analyze product value-added in accordance with the principle of value-sourcing and value-absorption areas,so as to decode"the trade-comovement puzzle."As our study shows,value-added trade can provide a significant positive stimulus for the economic comovement,but it is marked by asymmetry between hub and spoke countries with the former having a pivotal role.Our analysis of cohesive subgroups indicates that cohesive subgroups and value-added trade are complementary.When bilateral countries belong to the same subgroup,the intensity of their value-added trade exerts an increasing influence on the economic comovement.China has adopted a non-equilibrium opening up strategy and has actively boosted value-added linkages with hub countries;its utilization of the correlative effect of economic growth will enable it to achieve convergence with the growth of high-income economies.At the same time,China is taking advantage of being the core node in the Belt and Road trade network and is continuing to boost the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative,providing channels for countries along the Belt and Road to integrate into the global value-added system of division of labor and building a global economic environment that features win-win collaboration and co-development.
基金supported by“12th Five-year Plan of Guangdong Province for Philosophical and Social Sciences”“Study on the Effects of Rising Labor Cost on the Technical Innovation of Heterogeneous Exporting Firms”(Grant No.GD14XYJ10)
文摘By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three economies for different sectors using real domestic trade in value-added and GVC position indices. In addition, valueadded trade is taken into consideration to identify the labor division characteristics of the four economies in the GVC, which led to the following findings: China participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the downstream yet shows a significant tendency to move upstream in technology-intensive sectors; Japan participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the upstream and boasts an advantage in technology-intensive sectors; the US participates in the multiple links of the GVC at the upstream with superiority in hightechnology sectors; the EU participates in the production and export of intermediate goods and final goods at both ends.
文摘This study uses two different datasets to explore the stylized facts of interprovincial trade in China during the recent two decades. One dataset provides the magnitude of bilateral interprovincial goods trade calculated using firms ' value-added tax invoices. The other supplies estimates of interprovincial trade using provincial input-output tables. We find that China has both a large value and a high growth rate of interprovincial trade, but there still exists a home bias in internal trade for most provinces. In addition, disaggregation by product shows that the manufacturing sector has the largest share of interprovincial trade and this share continues to grow. Finally, the spatial distribution of trade suggests that all provinces can be clustered into a smaller number of trade areas with large intra-cluster trade. Therefore, China's central government should make more effort to reduce local protection, stimulate domestic demand and coordinate interregional trade among local jurisdictions.
文摘全球经济一体化的迅速发展客观上要求推广附加值贸易测算法(Trade in Value-Added,简称TiVA)。本文应用该法计算1995-2009年中国及35个行业的出口附加值,并与世界主要经济体对比,以更准确地判断中国在全球贸易体系中的地位,研究结论如下:(1)15年间中国出口国内附加值率迅速下降,致使传统方法统计的中国出口规模"虚高"。(2)中国第一、三产业目前较高的国内附加值率受益于行业开放度不足;制造业中,纺织服装等6大出口行业整体竞争力值得肯定,化学制品业、基础金属及金属制品业缺乏出口竞争优势,电子与光学制造业目前缺乏面对激烈国际竞争的实力。(3)依据TiVA,中国仍然可以保有"头号"出口大国的地位,但领先优势远不如传统统计显示的明显。