Problems in the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor Force in Chengdu Plain——A Empirical Analysis of Xiyu Village,Gexianshan Town,China

Under the new situation of the coordination of rural and urban development,the employment and transfer of surplus labor force have become the major social problems in China.Based on the field investigation on Xiyu Village of Gexianshan Town in Pengzhou City,the surplus labor force and the absorptive capacity of non-agricultural industries are estimated by using per capita cultivated method and output value absorption method.Based on this,the transfer pattern of surplus labor force is generalized and the corresponding suggestions for transfer are put forward.

From "Migrant Workers Boom" to "Migrant Workers Scarcity"——Analysis of Institutional Bottleneck of Rural Surplus Labors Transfer in China

Through description of three-steps characteristic of dual economic theory and its practical significance to the process of industrialization and urbanization in China,and making comparative analysis between important criterion of "Lewis turning point" and current situation of rural surplus labors market in China,we can find that there exists a great deal of surplus labors in rural areas in our country,improvement of peasant income is the result of external interference of government,and demographic dividend in our country hasn't finished.These phenomena go against the theory of "Lewis turning point".So it can prove that "Lewis turning point" in China hasn't come yet.The paper points out the major factors of coexistence of "migrant workers scarcity" and labors redundancy in our country.The first one is structure contradiction of labors market;the second one is law of supply-demand of labors market;the third one is institutional barrier which hinders labors in free flow of census register and social guarantee.Therefore,if we want to realize successful transfer of rural surplus labors and the goal of industrialization and urbanization,we must promote upgrading of industrial structure,change the style of economic growth and realize harmonious development of regional economy in macrocosmic level;And in microcosmic level,we should eliminate institutional barrier which hinders transfer of rural surplus labors.

Approaches and countermeasures of the transfer of rural surplus labors in China

The transfer of rural surplus labors concerns the development of agriculture and the national economy in China. On the pivotal period of transforming economy and society, whether the transfer can be accomplished successfully will play an important role in the social stabilization and the sustainable development of economy. In this paper, the authors bring out the characteristics and the main impediment of transfer. At the same time, countermeasures which are more effective have been put forward.

Study on the Quantity and Age Structure of Rural Surplus Labor Force in China

Based on the data from the Second National Agriculture Census in 2006, this paper analyzed the absolute quantity and age structure of China rural surplus labor force by the classical approach. It showed that the migration of rural labor force was still far away from ＂Lewis turning point＂, and ＂mingong huang＂ （ shortage of peasant workforce） appearing in coastal areas could be explained with the location separation between the labor-intensive industries and rural labor force. It was a feasible and an effective way to push forward the transfer of labor-intensive industries from the east coast to central and Western China to absorb the abundant supply of rural labor force.

The relationship between rural surplus labor transfer,urbanization and income gap

Based on the time series data of Shandong province from 2001 to 2018,a VAR model consisting of three variables,namely,rural surplus labor transfer,urbanization and urban-rural income gap,was constructed,and the interaction among the three variables and their characteristics were empirically analyzed.The results show that urbanization and rural surplus labor transfer are Granger causation to each other,and there is a positive correlation between urban-rural income gap and rural surplus labor force in long-term equilibrium,while there is a negative correlation between urban-rural income gap and rural surplus labor force transfer.Therefore,it is necessary to fully recognize the relationship between the transfer of rural surplus labor,urbanization and urban-rural income gap,accelerate the urbanization construction,promote the rural surplus labor to gather in cities,and gradually narrow the urban-rural income gap.

Impact of Labor Transfer on Agricultural Land Use Conversion at Rural Household Level Based on Logit Model

Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.

Demand,Supply and Surplus of Agricultural Labor Force in China

China's economy enjoys the prominent characteristics of a dual structure,with a severe surplus in the agricultural labor force.Scholars in China and overseas have conducted extensive research on the issue of labor surplus and have developed estimates on the size and percentage of surplus labor.The results,however,vary considerably due to the differences in methods and data sources.Based on existing research and using the National Agricultural Costs and Returns Compilation as the data source,this paper proposes that the size of the agricultural surplus labor force is only 8,520,000 persons,accounting for 2.1% of the total rural labor force.

社会保障参与有助于农村土地流转吗?——基于劳动力转移的中介效应

随着我国城乡社会保障制度逐步完善,农民对土地的依赖得到缓解,农村劳动力非农就业比例提高,农村土地流转供给不断增加。基于中国家庭追踪调查2012—2018年数据,构建了双重固定效应模型,旨在考察社会保障参与对农村土地流转的影响,同时分析了劳动力转移的中介效应。研究结果表明:参与新型农村养老保险对农村土地转出具有显著影响;参与新型农村合作医疗保险对于农村土地转出的影响并不显著,但是显著抑制农村土地转入;劳动力转移在新型农村养老保险对农村土地转出的影响中发挥着中介作用,在新型农村合作医疗对农村土地流转影响中发挥的中介效应不明显。

土地流转、农户创业和农村劳动力就近转移

推进农村劳动力就近转移能够在保障农民工群体就业、促进经济发展的基础上,有效缓解异地转移给农村带来的负面影响。为厘清土地流转对于农村劳动力就近转移的影响机制,基于2016、2018和2020年3期中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),采用Tobit模型、倾向得分匹配法(PSM)、中介效应和调节效应模型探讨土地流转对农村劳动力就近转移的影响机制,研究表明:土地流转能够显著促进农村劳动力就近转移,该结果经过数据缩尾、替换变量、筛选样本的稳健性检验和消除自选择引起的内生性偏误后依旧保持可靠;农户创业在土地流转对农村劳动力就近转移影响的过程中起到了部分中介效应,发挥了“创业带动就业”的作用;农户人情支出对土地流转对农村劳动力就近转移的作用路径起到显著正向调节作用。因此,应当健全农村土地流转制度,鼓励和扶持农户就近创新创业,正向引导农村社会关系网络并且完善农村正规市场建设。

考虑非农转移异质性的二元经济增长模型——对中国“迁移谜题”的再解释

传统二元经济模型没有考虑非农转移的异质性,因而无法解释中国“迁移谜题”。文章通过构建一个考虑非农转移异质性的二元经济增长模型,将永久性转移和非永久性转移同时纳入理论分析,对中国农村劳动力转移与城乡收入差距扩大并存的现象进行再解释,并增强二元经济增长模型对中国和其他发展中国家的适用性。分析结果表明,缩小农业部门和非农部门劳均产出差距要求农业部门保持较高的劳均土地增长率,如果能够加快农村劳动力由非永久性转移演变为永久性转移,农业部门劳均土地和劳均产出的增长就有可能进一步加快,城乡收入差距也有可能进一步缩小。进一步,农村劳动力的非农转移对两部门均衡发展也会产生一定影响。在长期中,“迁移谜题”可能会因非农部门的发展和非农就业机会的增加而消失,因为农村劳动力可以逐步在城镇寻求充分就业而完成永久性转移。最后,本文提供了与农村劳动力非农转移相关的若干特征事实以及政策建议。

城镇化进程中农村劳动力转移就业的困境及对策

在乡村振兴战略背景下,加快新型城镇化建设,吸引劳动力回乡就业,成为党和国家关注的重要课题。本研究探讨了城镇化推进对农村劳动力转移产生的影响,并深入分析了当前新型城镇化建设中影响劳动力转移的原因,最后从推动产业融合、开发人力资本、拓展就业渠道等方面,就做好农村劳动力就业提出了几点对策和建议。

Solution to the Dilemma of the Migrant Labor Shortage and the Rural Labor Surplus in China

Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.

Cultivating New-type Farmers Based on the Theory of Human Resources Development

Under the direction of theory of human resources development,this thesis analyzes the impact of rural human resources development oncultivating new-type farmers.Firstly,it increases the input of rural basic education;secondly,it reinforces the vocational education and technologytraining;thirdly,it promotes the rural medical and public health services;fourthly,it quickens the rural labor transfer.The status quo of China's ruralhuman resources has been analyzed as follows:in terms of the quantity of rural human resources,the status quo is large and quick-developed baseof rural human resources,high labor participatory rate,and constitution of low age;in terms of the quality of rural human resources,the status quois the ubiquitous low quality of rural human resources,low technological level of rural human resources,and overall low physical quality of farmers;in terms of the structure of rural human resources,the status quo is the irrational industrial structure distribution and imbalanced regional structuredistribution.The thesis also discusses the edification of theory of human resources development in cultivating new-type farmers.First,in terms ofthe control over quantity of rural human resources,it is to keep the stability of family planning policy,and expedite the transfer of rural surplus la-bor;second,in terms of promoting the quality of rural human resources,it is to bolster the development of reserve rural labor force resources,toconstruct the adult educational training system with Chinese characteristics,and to build rural primary health care system;third,in terms of adjus-ting the structure of rural human resources,it is to perfect rural human resources market,and adjust rural economical structure and talents struc-ture.

普惠保险、劳动力转移与城乡收入差距——基于共同富裕的视角

首先,本文尝试构建一个包含普惠保险与劳动力转移的城乡二元结构理论模型,系统诠释普惠保险、劳动力转移对城乡收入差距和共同富裕的作用渠道与影响效应;其次,通过建立中介效应模型并结合面板数据,实证检验了普惠保险促进劳动力转移,进而缩小城乡收入差距的传导机制。研究表明:普惠保险和农村劳动力转移是缩小城乡收入差距的重要动力,普惠保险不仅对城乡收入差距存在直接的缩小效应,还通过劳动力转移这一间接途径显著缩小了城乡收入差距,实现共同富裕;劳动力转移是普惠保险缩小城乡收入差距、影响共同富裕的重要机制,普惠保险通过劳动力转移对城乡收入差距的影响,会因家庭劳动力所在地区不同而表现出明显差异。进一步拓展分析发现:相比经济水平较发达的中东部地区,在经济文化较落后的西部地区,普惠保险基于劳动力转移这一中介变量对城乡收入差距的抑制作用更显著。

家庭视角下乡村劳动力转移就业的微观机制研究——以临沂市兰山区为例

乡村劳动力转移就业涉及乡村家庭伦理与经济行为两个难以统筹协调的范畴。文章基于乡村家庭所内含的经济价值、伦理价值、社会价值三重价值体系,建构乡村劳动力转移就业的家庭适应性调适逻辑框架,从个体、家庭与空间三个维度剖析了城市边缘区7个样本村的家庭非农转移就业特征。研究发现,在乡村家庭小型化和核心化趋势下,非农转移就业日趋年轻化,且具有清晰的年龄结构转换特征;以核心家庭为载体的劳务打工仍为主导转移途径;在城市边缘区城乡职住网络化格局中形成清晰的近距乡镇职住生活圈;家庭视角下“个人—家庭”“农业—非农”“通勤—离乡”三大适应性均衡策略是乡村劳动力转移就业多元分化的内在逻辑。纳入家庭价值体系的乡村劳动力转移就业研究有助于为城乡融合发展中的人才振兴等政策的制定与精准施策提供有益借鉴。

城乡收入差距对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究

缩小城乡收入差距并促进农业绿色发展是实现乡村振兴的重要内容,但城乡收入差距对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响尚未明确。基于2005—2019年的省级面板数据,实证检验了城乡收入差距对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响和作用机制。研究发现:城乡收入差距显著抑制了农业绿色全要素生产率提升;内在机制分析发现,农村劳动力转移会正向调节两者之间的负相关关系,而农村居民收入则会负向调节两者之间的负相关关系;异质性分析发现,城乡收入差距和农业绿色全要素生产率的负向关系在中西部地区更明显。

山东农村劳动力转移及影响因素分析

利用1978—2021年山东省统计年鉴数据,运用灰色预测模型与主成分分析法对山东省农村劳动力转移潜力进行预测并分析其影响因素。结果表明,山东省农村劳动力转移人数呈逐年下降趋势,预计到2030年农村劳动力将完成转移,但在2030年之前,农村剩余劳动力仍有潜力可挖。因此,需要从提高农村劳动力自身素质、规范劳动力就业市场、发展农业现代化、发挥好政府指导帮扶作用4个方面挖掘农村劳动力转移潜力,实现山东省经济社会高质量发展。

农村劳动力转移对农业面源污染的影响——基于安徽省的实证研究

农业面源污染已经成为阻碍农业可持续发展的重要因素,为了探究农村劳动力转移对农业面源污染的影响,基于2003-2020年安徽省16个地级市的面板数据,实证分析了农村劳动力转移对农业面源污染的影响强度和路径机制。研究结果表明:在农村劳动力转移的初始阶段,农村劳动力转移对农业面源污染有显著的正向影响,随着农村劳动力转移规模突破临界值,农村劳动力转移对农业面源污染的影响为负,在整个样本期内二者呈“倒U”型关系。机制检验结果表明,农村劳动力转移可能通过农业生产率进而影响农业面源污染,并且影响机制存在显著的区域异质性。

农村交通基础设施与农村劳动力转移——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的解释

利用新经济地理学中核心-边缘(CP)模型,构建交通基础设施影响劳动力转移的理论分析框架,在此基础上运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年和2014年两期面板数据进行实证估计。结果表明,农村交通基础设施的改善客观上产生了促进农民进城务工的效果,但也受到城乡收入差距因素的制约且存在较为明显的异质性特征,即只有当区域城乡收入差距较大且超过一定门限值时,这一作用才呈现正向的促进效果;反之,则有可能阻碍农村劳动力向城市转移。同时探究城乡收入差距各子维度对劳动力转移的不同影响效应,通过关键维度识别,更细致地解释了交通基础设施对农村劳动力转移的异质性影响。最后,根据所得结论提出了相应的政策建议。

乡村振兴背景下农村劳动力转移问题探讨

农村劳动力转移成为经济发展的一个必然趋势,农村劳动力向城市转移能够有效提高农民收入,缩小城乡收入差距。当前我国农村劳动力转移受到土地、户籍制度、劳动力素质、社会保障制度等因素制约,推动农村劳动力转移就业措施包括推动户籍制度改革、提升劳动力就业素质、拓展转移就业的渠道、完善相应的法律法规及相关政策等。