为提高冰雹探测算法(Hail Detection Algorithm, HDA)产品的可用性,针对2015—2020年普洱地区监测到的22次冰雹个例,利用新一代雷达业务应用软件ROSE2.0对相关雷达基数据进行回放及产品分析,以命中率、虚警率、临界成功指数为指标对HDA...为提高冰雹探测算法(Hail Detection Algorithm, HDA)产品的可用性,针对2015—2020年普洱地区监测到的22次冰雹个例,利用新一代雷达业务应用软件ROSE2.0对相关雷达基数据进行回放及产品分析,以命中率、虚警率、临界成功指数为指标对HDA算法在普洱地区的识别效果进行评估并给出本地化参数配置方案。结果表明:HDA算法在普洱地区命中率接近100%,但虚警现象非常普遍,使用强冰雹概率(Probability of Severe Hail, POSH)的预警效果优于任意大小冰雹概率(Probability of Hail, POH),且冰雹尺寸越大POSH虚警的概率越低。进一步使用模拟测评法对POSH算法的适配参数进行分析,发现正确输入降雹日当天的0℃层和-20℃层高度能有效减少POSH的虚警率及提高临界成功指数;同时使算法预测的最大冰雹直径普遍偏大的情况得到控制,其中,中小冰雹直径偏离百分比减小76.07%,改善效果显著高于大冰雹。此外,增大反射率因子及POSH阈值能有效控制虚警,但也导致漏报次数快速增加,当阈值太大时命中率明显降低,为了保证较高的命中率和临界成功指数,选择Z=50 dBz或POSH=70%为阈值能明显改善HDA算法的识别效果。展开更多
We study the existence and stability of monotone traveling wave solutions of Nicholson's blowflies equation with degenerate p-Laplacian diffusion.We prove the existence and nonexistence of non-decreasing smooth tr...We study the existence and stability of monotone traveling wave solutions of Nicholson's blowflies equation with degenerate p-Laplacian diffusion.We prove the existence and nonexistence of non-decreasing smooth traveling wave solutions by phase plane analysis methods.Moreover,we show the existence and regularity of an original solution via a compactness analysis.Finally,we prove the stability and exponential convergence rate of traveling waves by an approximated weighted energy method.展开更多
文摘为提高冰雹探测算法(Hail Detection Algorithm, HDA)产品的可用性,针对2015—2020年普洱地区监测到的22次冰雹个例,利用新一代雷达业务应用软件ROSE2.0对相关雷达基数据进行回放及产品分析,以命中率、虚警率、临界成功指数为指标对HDA算法在普洱地区的识别效果进行评估并给出本地化参数配置方案。结果表明:HDA算法在普洱地区命中率接近100%,但虚警现象非常普遍,使用强冰雹概率(Probability of Severe Hail, POSH)的预警效果优于任意大小冰雹概率(Probability of Hail, POH),且冰雹尺寸越大POSH虚警的概率越低。进一步使用模拟测评法对POSH算法的适配参数进行分析,发现正确输入降雹日当天的0℃层和-20℃层高度能有效减少POSH的虚警率及提高临界成功指数;同时使算法预测的最大冰雹直径普遍偏大的情况得到控制,其中,中小冰雹直径偏离百分比减小76.07%,改善效果显著高于大冰雹。此外,增大反射率因子及POSH阈值能有效控制虚警,但也导致漏报次数快速增加,当阈值太大时命中率明显降低,为了保证较高的命中率和临界成功指数,选择Z=50 dBz或POSH=70%为阈值能明显改善HDA算法的识别效果。
基金partially supported by the NSFC(11971179,12371205)partially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFA1002900)+1 种基金the Guangdong Province Basic and Applied Basic Research Fund(2021A1515010235)the Guangzhou City Basic and Applied Basic Research Fund(2024A04J6336)。
文摘We study the existence and stability of monotone traveling wave solutions of Nicholson's blowflies equation with degenerate p-Laplacian diffusion.We prove the existence and nonexistence of non-decreasing smooth traveling wave solutions by phase plane analysis methods.Moreover,we show the existence and regularity of an original solution via a compactness analysis.Finally,we prove the stability and exponential convergence rate of traveling waves by an approximated weighted energy method.