Joint analysis of urban shopping destination and travel mode choice accounting for potential spatial correlation between alternatives

In recent years,there have been important developments in the joint analysis of the travel behavior based on discrete choice models as well as in the formulation of increasingly flexible closed-form models belonging to the generalized extreme value class.The objective of this work is to describe the simultaneous choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area by making use of the cross-nested logit(CNL) structure that allows for potential spatial correlation.The analysis uses data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington,D.C.region for shopping trips,considering household,individual,land use,and travel-related characteristics.The estimation results show that the dissimilarity parameter in the CNL model is 0.37 and significant at the 95% level,indicating that the alternatives have high spatial correlation for the short shopping distance.The results of analysis reveal detailed significant influences on travel behavior of joint choice shopping destination and travel mode.Moreover,a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios arising from transportation policies and parking fees in downtown area,was undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the shopping destination and travel mode switching.These findings have important implications for transportation demand management and urban planning.

A tour-based analysis of travel mode choice accounting for regional transit service

The aim of this work is to explore the impact of regional transit service on tour-based commuter travel behavior by using the Bayesian hierarchical multinomial logit model, accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of the people living in the same area.With two indicators, accessibility and connectivity measured at the zone level, the regional transit service is captured and then related to the travel mode choice behavior. The sample data are selected from Washington-Baltimore Household Travel Survey in 2007,including all the trips from home to workplace in morning hours in Baltimore city. Traditional multinomial logit model using Bayesian approach is also estimated. A comparison of the two different models shows that ignoring the spatial context can lead to a misspecification of the effects of the regional transit service on travel behavior. The results reveal that improving transit service at regional level can be effective in reducing auto use for commuters after controlling for socio-demographics and travel-related factors.This work provides insights for interpreting tour-based commuter travel behavior by using recently developed methodological approaches. The results of this work will be helpful for engineers, urban planners, and transit operators to decide the needs to improve regional transit service and spatial location efficiently.

Research on Behavior on Travel Mode, Going to Metro Station at Ho Chi Minh City

This research presents an analysis of travel mode choice for trips to Ho Chi Minh City metro station. Research methods were inherited through a formula to calculate passenger traffic forecasts to predict passengers, going to the station. Based on the collected data of interviews, traffic surveys, and ＂Irwin ＆ Von Cube＂ function, forecast the proportion of travel mode, and use to go to the station and leaving from the station. The results of study are used for the purpose of calculating the size of the metro station parking lots and parking layout plan.

Kriging Geostatistical Methods for Travel Mode Choice: A Spatial Data Analysis to Travel Demand Forecasting

This paper aims to compare the results of two techniques of Kriging (Ordinary Kriging and Indicator Kriging) that are applied to estimate the Private Motorized (PM) travel mode use (car or motorcycle) in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values of the concerning variable. The data used was from the Origin/Destination and Public Transportation Opinion Survey, carried out in 2007/2008 at S?o Carlos (SP, Brazil). The techniques were applied in the region with 110 sample points (households). Initially, Decision Tree was applied to estimate the probability of mode choice in surveyed households, thus determining the numeric variable to be used in Ordinary Kriging. For application of Indicator Kriging it was used the variable “main travel mode” in a discrete manner, where “1” represented the use of PM travel mode and “0” characterized others travel modes. The results obtained by the two spatial estimation techniques were similar (Kriging maps and cross-validation procedure). However, the Indicator Kriging (KI) obtained the highest number of hit rates. In addition, with the KI it was possible to use the variable in its original form, avoiding error propagation. Finally, it was concluded that spatial statistics was thriving in travel demand forecasting issues, giving rise, for the both Kriging methods, to a travel mode choice surface on a confirmatory way.

Big Data-Driven Residents’ Travel Mode Choice Choice: A Research Overview

The research on residents'travel mode choice mainly studies how traffic flows are shared by different traffic modes,which is the prerequisite for the government to establish transportation planning and policy.Traditional methods based on survey or small data sources are difficult to accurately describe,explain and verify residents'travel mode choice behavior.Recently,thanks to upgrades of urban infrastructures,many real-time location-tracking devices become available.These devices generate massive real-time data,which provides new opportunities to analyze and explain resident travel mode choice behavior more accurately and more comprehensively.This paper surveys the current research status of big data-driven residents'travel mode choice from three aspects:residents'travel mode identification,acquisition of travel mode influencing factors,and travel mode choice model construction.Finally,the limitations of current research and directions of future research are discussed.

Accessibility Analysis of Comprehensive Parks in the Central Urban Area of Suzhou Under Multiple Travel Modes

Comprehensive parks offer a wide range of functions and serve diverse populations.Assessing their accessibility based on multiple travel modes and real-time travel data is of great importance for promoting the rational distribution and efficient service of these parks.By using real-time travel data obtained through the API(Application Programming Interface)of Gaode Maps and applying the Ga2SFCA(Gaussian Two-Step Floating Catchment Area)method,this study explores the accessibility of comprehensive parks in the central urban area of Suzhou city under multiple travel modes.The findings are as follows.①Walking accessibility shows significant improvement under the 15-minute threshold compared to the 10-minutethreshold scenario;cycling accessibility increases synchronically with the time threshold,maintaining relatively stable travel costs;driving is the preferred mode for long-duration and long-distance trips;whereas the accessibility of bus travel exhibits substantial spatial variation.②The overall accessibility within the studied time thresholds shows that driving is better than cycling,followed by bus travel and walking.Especially for trips within a 4 km range between communities and comprehensive parks,cycling accessibility surpasses that of buses.③The high-value distribution of accessibility to comprehensive parks,as measured under walking,cycling,and driving modes,is relatively balanced,while the overall accessibility coverage of bus travel is relatively low.This study reveals the differences and characteristics of comprehensive park accessibility under multiple travel modes,providing insights for reassessing the existing service radius indicator and offering a theoretical basis for optimizing the allocation of parks based on population distribution.

Comparison of Travel Mode Choice Between Taxi and Subway Regarding Traveling Convenience

In this study, we investigate travel mode choice behavior between taxi and subway with an emphasis on the influence of traveling convenience. In the first stage, we examine the Origin-Destination(OD) points of Beijing taxi trips and compare these locations with the respective nearest subway station. Statistics reveal several interesting conclusions. First, for approximately 24.89% of all trips, no convenient subway connections exist between the OD pairs. As such, a taxi becomes the only viable choice. Second, for 80.23% of the remaining 75.11%of trips(equivalent to 60.26% of all trips), access distance from either the origin or the destination to the nearest subway station is greater than 500 meters. This phenomenon indicates that walking distance plays an important role in travel mode choice. In the second stage, we examine groups of taxi trips with similar travel distances and travel times to reveal common features. We establish a preference rule in terms of travel distance and travel time.This determines whether an individual driver will take a taxi or the subway, using a pairwise comparison-based preference regression model. Tests indicate that more than 95% of taxi trips can be correctly predicted by this preference rule. This conclusion reveals that traveling convenience dominates the travel model choice between taxi and subway. All these findings shed light on the factors that influence travel mode choice behavior.

＂Wheelchair slow transit＂ system-based elderly auxiliary travel mode

Based on research of the current situation and analysis result of a case study in the Nanjing region, this paper proposes a ＂whee（chair slow transit＂（WST） system-based elderly auxiliary travel mode. The system involves three fundamental composition frames, namely, support, transit components, and connection components. Each component is designed as an armrest, ground track, or vertical type to respond to actual demands. Thus, this system may be adaptable to diverse conditions. Taking Xiangpuying community as a case study, the author examined the application of the WST auxi（iary mode in particular communities. The WST system helps to increase the accessibility of existing public areas, creates a safe community traffic environment, improves municipal facilities, and strengthens universal design. The study intends to provide a reference to obtain a complete aged care design and to build a comfortable and livable aged care community environment.

Complex modes and traveling waves in axially moving Timoshenko beams

Complex modes and traveling waves in axially moving Timoshenko beams are studied. Due to the axially moving velocity, complex modes emerge instead of real value modes. Correspondingly, traveling waves are present for the axially moving material while standing waves dominate in the traditional static structures. The analytical results obtained in this study are verified with a numerical differential quadrature method.

Mode of travel and the decision to allow children to walk or bike to schools—The Abu Dhabi experience

The study investigates school travel to and from schools as perceived by parents in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Far fewer children are cycling or walking to school, and more and more are being driven to school by car. Traffic conditions, environmental factors, distance to school, road’s infrastructures, walking or biking with groups, schools efforts to educate children about active travel, and preferences of parents to accompany children to school were significantly perceived as important. The absence of active travel culture in the community was seen as a significant factor. Parent’s gender, child’s gender, child’s grade level, number of cars owned by the family, nationality and number of children were significantly associated with parents’ decisions to allow active travel to school. Results show that Abu Dhabi must establish aggressive strategic plans to promote active-commuting to school as the main mode of transportation. Current conditions in Abu Dhabi City are not conducive to active travel to school.

Influence of land use characteristics and trip attributes on commuting mode choice: a case of Nanjing

The effects of socio-demographics, land use characteristics and trip attributes on the commute mode choice are studied with a nested logit （NL） model. Based on the random utility maximum theory, the NL model is formulated. The analysis is carried out in the main area of Nanjing. Direct and cross elasticities are calculated to analyze the effects of travel time and travel cost on the selection of travel mode choice. The results reveal that the non-motorized travel modes are more attractive in the areas with higher housing and employment accessibility and car owners are found to be more likely to commute to work by car. The bus and subway choice probabilities are more sensitive to changes in travel times than to changes in travel costs. In conclusion, a comprehensive public transit system and effective integration of land use and transportation policies help to relieve the traffic congestion levels caused by the increasing urban sprawl.

Evolution trend analysis of urban residents’ low-carbon travel development based on multidimensional game theory

In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be seen as a repeated game between members of the travelers.Based on the analysis of this game and its evolution trend,a multi-dimensional game model of low-carbon travel for residents is established.The two dimensional game strategies include whether to accept the low-carbon concept and whether to choose low-carbon travel.Combined with evolutionary game theory,the low-carbon travel choices of residents in different cities are simulated,and the evolutionary stability strategies are obtained.Finally,the influences of the main parameters of the model on the evolution process and stability strategies are discussed.The results show that travelers would develop towards two trends.Cities with more developed public traffic system have a higher proportion of receiving low-carbon concept and choosing low-carbon travel.Cities with underdeveloped public transport system could increase this proportion by some measures such as encouraging residents to choose slow transport and increasing the propaganda of low-carbon travel,but the positive effects of the measures like propaganda have a limited impact on the proportion.

Spatial Analysis of Commuting Mode Choice in Guangzhou, China

Metropolitan cities in China are commonly confronted with unresolved traffic congestion issues, primarily due to rapidly increasing traffic demand. Group disparity between commuting mode choice and its spatial distribution on road networks has enabled us to examine the factors that give rise to the discrepancies and the fundamental spatial causes of traffic congestion. In recent years, mi- cro-perspective, individual, and behavior-based spatial analysis have mushroomed and been facilitated with effective tools such as tem- poral geographic information systems （T-GIS）. It is difficult to study the interrelations between transport and space on the basis of commuting mode choice since the mode choice data are invisible in a specific space such as a particular road network. Therefore, in the field of transport, the classical origin destination （OD） four-stage model （FSM） is usually employed to calculate data when studying commuting mode choice. Based on the relative principles of T-GIS and the platform of ArcGIS, this paper considers Guangzhou as a case study and develops a spatio-temporal tool to examine the daily activities of residents. Meanwhile, the traffic volume distribution in rush hours, which was analyzed according to commuting modes and how they were reflected in the road network, was scrutinized with data extracted from travel diaries. Moreover, efforts were made to explain the relationship between traffic demand and urban spatial structure. Based on the investigation, this research indicates that traffic volumes in divergent groups and on the road networks is driven by： l） the socio-economie characteristics of travelers; 2） a jobs-housing imbalance under suburbanization; 3） differences in the spatial supply of transport modes; 4） the remains of the Danwei （work unit） system and market development in China; and 5） the transition of urban spatial structure and other factors.

基于等效故障区段的柔性直流输电线路单端量保护方案

行波保护动作速度快,具有不依赖线路边界元件以及不受新能源控制策略影响等优点,是目前解决柔性直流输电线路中单端暂态量保护方案在弱边界情况下难以适用的有效途径之一。然而现有基于行波特征的单端量保护方案多为欠范围式保护,存在难以保护线路全长的问题。对此,该文首先通过分析线路不同位置故障时反向电流行波的传播路径,推导出在首个反极性波到达前,保护检测到同极性波的数量与故障位置的关系;在此基础上,考虑近端或末端故障时的“漏波”现象以及线路长度的影响,定义并引入“等效故障区段”的概念,以增大零线模时差在区内外故障时的差异,进而提出了基于等效故障区段的柔性直流输电线路单端量保护方案。该方案解决了现有单端量保护方案难以保护线路全长的问题,并考虑了近端或末端故障时采样率受限的影响,具有一定的容错性。最后,基于PSCAD/EMTDC的仿真实验,验证了所提保护方案的可行性。

The Sensitivity of Model Results to Specification of Network-Based Level of Service Attributes: An Application of a Mixed Logit Model to Trave Mode Choice

The need for travel demand models is growing worldwide. Obtaining reasonably accurate level of service (LOS) attributes of different travel modes such as travel time and cost representing the performance of transportation system is not a trivial task, especially in growing cities of developing countries. This study investigates the sensitivity of results of a travel mode choice model to different specifications of network-based LOS attributes using a mixed logit model. The study also looks at the possibilities of correcting some of the inaccuracies in network-based LOS attributes. Further, the study also explores the effects of different specifications of LOS data on implied values of time and aggregation forecasting. The findings indicate that the implied values of time are very sensitive to specification of data and model implying that utmost care must be taken if the purpose of the model is to estimate values of time. Models estimated on all specifications of LOS-data perform well in prediction, likely suggesting that the extra expense on developing a more detailed and accurate network models so as to derive more precise LOS attributes is unnecessary for impact analyses of some policies.

基于机器学习的中型城市居民出行方式选择行为研究

为探索中型城市居民出行特征以及不同因素对出行方式选择行为的影响机制,本文以中国某中型城市居民出行数据为例,综合考虑传统离散选择模型和机器学习模型在预测精度和建模合理性上的优劣,以及机器学习模型超参数求解算法的特点和效率,引入变异程序,提出粒子群优化随机森林的中型城市居民出行方式选择预测模型,采用预测准确率、出行方式比例预测绝对误差和期望模拟误差这3项性能指标,量化对比粒子群优化随机森林模型与多种机器学习模型和多项Logit模型统计学上的预测性能差异,利用SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanation)模型深入分析个人社会经济属性、出行属性及出行方式属性等相关因素与居民出行方式选择之间的非线性关系。结果表明:粒子群优化随机森林模型整体平均预测准确率最高,为0.856,出行方式比例预测平均绝对误差和期望模拟平均误差最低,分别为0.062和0.306,模型间指标差异在统计学检验下显著;距离对不同出行方式选择的影响最显著,步行和私家车出行对距离敏感性更高,不同距离下,两者选择概率变化超过35%;30岁以下群体不同出行方式选择概率差距大于其他年龄段;性别、是否拥有私家车或公交IC卡等因素显著改变公交车和私家车的选择概率。

重大节假日出行方式选择模型研究

为优化节假日高速公路免费政策,选取出行者变量、出行方式相关变量和行程特性变量作为效用变量,构建了出行方式位于上层、出行距离位于下层的NL模型。利用弧弹性法分析不同收费标准和收费里程条件下出行者的行为特性,并利用场景仿真评价多种收费组合对出行方式的影响。研究结果表明:提高收费标准,汽车出行比例会显著降低,且高速铁路承担了大部分的转移交通量。随着收费里程的增加,出行者逐渐倾向于出行成本较小的普通铁路。对长距离出行收费可以提升公共交通分担率,缓解节假日高速公路的交通拥堵。

职住学空间测度及儿童通学决策的影响机理——以昆明市双职工家庭为例

当代城市家庭选择居住地时往往将临近学校作为重要参考,在缩小学住距离的同时加剧了职住分离。选取昆明市561个有学龄儿童的双职工家庭为研究对象,分析家庭空间分异对儿童通学决策的影响。首先,基于时间地理学理论构建考虑职住学三个锚点的家庭活动空间及测度理论模型。其次,根据测度结果将家庭活动空间划分为职住学就近型和职住学分离型两类。最后,建立结构方程模型分别探究两种模式下父母工作时长以及父母儿童组合时间窗对儿童通学时空行为的影响。研究结果表明:相对于学住距离,父母的职住距离和工作时长对通学行为的影响更为显著,因此就近入学政策对于促进儿童步行上学的作用有限;对于职住学分离型家庭,父母下班与儿童放学组合时间窗的宽裕程度对儿童出行影响显著,组合时间窗越宽裕,儿童小汽车出行的可能越大,因此弹性放学时间的效果也有待商榷;儿童在通学行为中的性别差异主要在职住学分离型家庭中体现。

Principle and Experimental Verification of Flexible Caudal Fin Based on Active Torsion Propulsion Mode

The active torsion propulsion mode of a caudal fin,composed of macro fiber composites(MFC)and carbon fiber orthotropic composite material is proposed.The caudal fin is excited by the piezoelectric structure to vibrate flexibly.The work principle is firstly analyzed by finite element method(FEM)and experiments.Then the caudal fin is optimized to increase the torque and improve the streamline,and the added mass effect from the water is discussed in terms of the frequency of the structure.The torsion resonance frequency is around 103 Hz in the air and decreased by 75%to 25 Hz in the water.Finally,the mean thrust is discussed and measured to be 11 mN at900V(Peak to peak)driving voltage.A flexible micro robot is developed and tested.The locomotion velocity and flow velocity is 320mm/s and 268mm/s,respectively.The results of the simulation and experiments indicate that the locomotion of the biomimetic aquatic robot has fast movement characteristics.

基于出行剩余理论的旅游出行方式选择研究

为揭示旅游出行需求主体选择出行服务方式的规律,研究旅游出行特性,提升研判运输通道上旅游客流选择出行服务方式的准确性,构建基于出行剩余理论的休闲旅游出行方式选择模型。从需求独立价值角度刻画旅游出行人群的出行行为,在旅游出行价值特征方面强调出行服务方式的情感价值和游客空间行为价值,在出行剩余理论基础上对旅游出行方式选择进行细化分析。以西安和成都为旅游出行的OD点进行情境模拟算例研究,根据游客对沿途旅游资源的偏好差异将出行需求主体分为3类,分别计算其出行剩余,根据出行剩余最大化原则讨论其最佳出行服务方式。研究结果表明,由于3类游客对特定旅游资源数量、品质情感响应、偏好等存在差异,所对应的最佳出行服务方式有所不同。