The habitation Model Trend Calculation(MTC):A new effective tool for predictive modeling in archaeology

The aim of this paper is to create and present a new archaeological predictive model via GIS,incorporating what archaeologists consider the most important criterion absent of similar past models,that of critical thinking.The new model suggested in this paper is named habitation Model Trend Calculation(MTC)and is not only integrates the archaeological questions with a critical view,but it can be easily adjusted,according to the conditions or the questions concerning the archaeological community.Furthermore,it uses new topographical and geomorphological indexes such as Topographical Index(TPI),Hillslope and Landform Classification that give a new sense of the topographical and geomorphological characteristics of the examined area;therefore this model is a more powerful tool compared to older models that did not use new topographical and geomorphological indexes.The success of the created model is checked as a case study in the region of Messenia,Greece during the Mycenaean era.The region of Messenia is considered as one of the most important Mycenaean regions of Greece due to the great number and the importance of Mycenaean sites identified.For the present paper,140 habitation sites were divided into four hierarchical categories(centers,large villages,villages,and farms)based on the extent and the plurality of the tholos tombs that exist in the broader region and according to the hierarchical categorization used by the archaeologists who have studied the area.The new predictive model presented in this work can assist in solving a series of criticisms that have been expressed in the previous studies regarding such models.Additionally,in the case of Mycenaean Messenia,the model shows excellent results in relation to the habitats of the time.

The Impacts of the Universal Two-Child Policy on China's Population

The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey,this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy.The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17.2 million in the years 2017-2021,with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1.6 to 4.7 million.This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1.6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level,and then dropping to a projected 1.7.With the universal two-child policy in place,China's total population will grow to about 1.45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking.The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained,with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15-59 in 2050.With implementation of China's new fertility policy,an estimated 34%of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050,almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued.