This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by t...This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt changes.Statistical comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track dataset.Although no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP data.Furthermore,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track dataset.The wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.展开更多
This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over th...This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.展开更多
Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment ...Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.展开更多
Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers f...Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.展开更多
This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October m...This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October months of 1985-2014.The focus is on investigating the role of the tropical easterly jet over the Western Pacific(WP_TEJ)in modulating the simulation biases in terms of their climatological distribution and interannual variability of WNP TC genesis frequency(TCGF)based on the analysis of the genesis potential index(GPI).Results show that the two models reasonably capture the main TC genesis location,the maximum center of frequency,and track density;however,their biases mainly lie in simulating the intense TCs and TCGF distributions.The MRI better simulates the windpressure relationship(WPR)but overestimates the proportion of super typhoons(SSTYs).At the same time,FGOALS underestimates the WPR and the proportion of SSTYs but better simulates the total WNP TC precipitation.In particular,FGOALS overestimates the TCGF in the northeastern WNP,which is strongly tied to an overestimated WP_TEJ and the enhanced vertical circulation to the north of its entrance region.In contrast,the MRI simulates a weaker WP_TEJ and vertical circulation,leading to a negative TCGF bias in most of the WNP.Both models exhibit comparable capability in simulating the interannual variability of WP_TEJ intensity,but the composite difference of large-scale atmospheric factors between strong and weak WP_TEJ years is overestimated,resulting in larger interannual anomalies of WNP TCGF,especially for FGOALS.Therefore,accurate simulations of the WP_TEJ and the associated oceanic and atmospheric factors are crucial to further improving WNP TC simulations for both models.展开更多
Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations.By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosi...Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations.By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016,the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean SST and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this paper.Furthermore,the potential mechanism concerning the effect of SST anomaly on TC frequency is also investigated.The findings are as follows:1)there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and SST in the Indian Ocean from March to May,with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean(SWIO);2)the anomalies of SST in SWIO(SWIO-SST)are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean,which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence,mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO;3)the increasing trend of SWIO-SST may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years.展开更多
Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weat...Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in 2020.The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first time.The observing system experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of dropsonde data and CNOP sensitivity on TC forecasts in terms of track and intensity,using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.It is shown that the impact of assimilating all dropsonde data on both track and intensity forecasts is case-dependent.However,assimilation using only the dropsonde data inside the sensitive regions displays unanimously positive effects on both the track and intensity forecast,either of which obtains comparable benefits to or greatly reduces deterioration of the skill when assimilating all dropsonde data.Therefore,these results encourage us to further carry out targeting observations for the forecast of tropical cyclones according to CNOP sensitivity.展开更多
Hong Kong is often affected by tropical cyclones.The Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the region.The joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong c...Hong Kong is often affected by tropical cyclones.The Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the region.The joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong can provide a scientific basis for disaster reduction and prevention and post-disaster reconstruction of tropical cyclones.First,the maximum hourly mean wind speed(W),warning signal duration(D),maximum sea level(L),and total rainfall(R)of each tropical cyclone that affected Hong Kong from 1985 to 2019 are selected and fitted using the Gumbel,Weibull,Pearson type 3,and lognormal distributions.Then,bivariate copula functions,such as the Clayton,Frank,Gumbel-Hougaard,and Gaussian copulas,are applied to construct the joint probability models of W,D,L,and R,respectively.The joint return periods of W and D and those of L and R are defined as the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones,respectively.The results show that the joint return periods are good indicators of the comprehensive effect of the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones.No necessary correlation between meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones exists.The meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones show an upward trend in recent years.展开更多
Coastal urban areas are prone to serious disasters caused by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs). Despite the crucial role of urban forcing in precipitation, how fine-scale urban features impact landfalling TC precipit...Coastal urban areas are prone to serious disasters caused by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs). Despite the crucial role of urban forcing in precipitation, how fine-scale urban features impact landfalling TC precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, high-resolution ensemble simulations of Typhoon Rumbia(2018), which crossed the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, were conducted to analyze the potential urban impact on TC precipitation. Results show that the inner-core rainfall of Rumbia is strengthened by approximately 10% due to the urban impact near the landfall,whereas minor differences in outer-core rainfall are found when the urban impact is excluded. Further diagnostic analyses indicate that low-level upward motion is crucial for precipitation evolution, as both co-vary during landfall. Moreover, the frictionally induced upward motion plays a decisive role in enhancing the rainfall when the urban impacts are included.Urban surface friction can decelerate the tangential wind and therefore destroy the gradient balance and strengthen the radial wind within the boundary layer and thus can enhance upward motion. This study demonstrates that urban surface friction and related physical processes make the most significant contribution to landfalling TC rainfall enhancement.展开更多
In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examine...In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examined using a Lagrangian trajectory method.Evaporatively forced downdrafts in the outer rainbands can transport low-entropy air downward,resulting in the lowestθ_(e)in the downshear-left boundary layer.Quantitative estimations ofθ_(e)recovery indicate that air parcels,especially those originating from the downshear-left outer core,can gradually revive from a low entropy state through surface enthalpy fluxes as the parcels move cyclonically.As a result,the maximumθ_(e)is observed in the downshear-right quadrant of a highly sheared TC.The trajectory analyses also indicate that parcels that move upward in the outer rainbands and those that travel through the inner core due to shear make a dominant contribution to the midlevel enhancement ofθ_(e)in the downshear-left outer core.In particular,the former plays a leading role in suchθ_(e)enhancements,while the latter plays a secondary role.As a result,moist potential stability occurs in the middle-to-lower troposphere in the downshear-left outer core.展开更多
The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-cau...The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.展开更多
The accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs)is a challenging task.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a dry-mass conserving(DMC)hydrostatic global spectral dynamical core on TC simulation...The accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs)is a challenging task.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a dry-mass conserving(DMC)hydrostatic global spectral dynamical core on TC simulation.Experiments were conducted with DMC and total(moist)mass conserving(TMC)dynamical cores.The TC forecast performance was first evaluated considering 20 TCs in the West Pacific region observed during the 2020 typhoon season.The impacts of the DMC dynamical core on forecasts of individual TCs were then estimated.The DMC dynamical core improved both the track and intensity forecasts,and the TC intensity forecast improvement was much greater than the TC track forecast improvement.Sensitivity simulations indicated that the DMC dynamical core-simulated TC intensity was stronger regardless of the forecast lead time.In the DMC dynamical core experiments,three-dimensional winds and warm and moist cores were consistently enhanced with the TC intensity.Drier air in the boundary inflow layer was found in the DMC dynamical core experiments at the early simulation times.Water vapor mixing ratio budget analysis indicated that this mainly depended on the simulated vertical velocity.Higher updraft above the boundary layer yielded a drier boundary layer,resulting in surface latent heat flux(SLHF)enhancement,the major energy source of TC intensification.The higher DMC dynamical core-simulated updraft in the inner core caused a higher net surface rain rate,producing higher net internal atmospheric diabatic heating and increasing the TC intensity.These results indicate that the stronger DMC dynamical coresimulated TCs are mainly related to the higher DMC vertical velocity.展开更多
Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 201...Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.展开更多
Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their i...Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their inter-annual spatial and temporal variability.Then,the relationships between each empirical orthogonal function(EOF)mode and the typhoon count,typhoon landfall count,track pattern,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover(QXPSC)were examined,and the possible physical mechanisms implied by the statistical relationship were explored.The results show the QXPSC significantly affected the surface-atmosphere heat exchange through snow cover(SC)level,then changed the East Asian summer monsoon regional circulation pattern,influenced the subtropical high-pressure system strength and location,and ultimately affected the WNP TCs track patterns and thus changed their landfall locations.展开更多
The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.Howeve...The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.展开更多
Reliable wave information is critical for marine engineering.Numerical wave models are useful tools to obtain wave information with continuous spatiotemporal distributions.However,the accuracy of model results highly ...Reliable wave information is critical for marine engineering.Numerical wave models are useful tools to obtain wave information with continuous spatiotemporal distributions.However,the accuracy of model results highly depends on the quality of wind forcing.In this study,we utilize observations from five buoys deployed in the northern South China Sea from August to September 2017.Notably,these buoys successfully recorded wind field and wave information during the passage of five tropical cyclones of different intensities without sustaining any damage.Based on these unique observations,we evaluated the quality of four widely used wind products,namely CFSv2,ERA5,CCMP,and ERAI.Our analysis showed that in the northern South China Sea,ERA5 performed best compared to buoy observations,especially in terms of maximum wind speed values at 10 m height(U10),extreme U10 occurrence time,and overall statistical indicators.CFSv2 tended to overestimate non-extreme U10 values.CCMP showed favorable statistical performance at only three of the five buoys,but underestimated extreme U10 values at all buoys.ERAI had the worst performance under both normal and tropical cyclone conditions.In terms of wave hindcast accuracy,ERA5 outperformed the other reanalysis products,with CFSv2 and CCMP following closely.ERAI showed poor performance especially in the upper significant wave heights.Furthermore,we found that the wave hindcasts did not improve with increasing spatiotemporal resolution,with spatial resolution up to 0.5°.These findings would help in improving wave hindcasts under extreme conditions.展开更多
This study investigates the modulation of initial wind field structure on the relationship between the size and intensity of a simulated vortex.A series of idealized experiments are conducted by varying the radius of ...This study investigates the modulation of initial wind field structure on the relationship between the size and intensity of a simulated vortex.A series of idealized experiments are conducted by varying the radius of maximum wind(RMW)and shape parameter of the initial vortices.The size–intensity relationship is quantified by the linear regression coefficient of the azimuthally-averaged gale-force wind radius against the maximum wind during the development stage,reflecting the degree of size expansion at the same intensity increment.The regression coefficient increases with increased RMW and decreased,with the RMW being the primary constraint.The effect of lowering on the elevation of the regression coefficient gradually stands out when the initial RMW is large.Enlarging the RMW leads to a secondary circulation with a horizontally elongated structure,which retards the intensification while promoting size expansion,thus substantially enhancing size expansion as the vortex intensifies.Broadening the wind field outside the RMW by reducing results in abounding convection in the outer region,which promotes size expansion.Based on the axisymmetric tangential wind tendency and Sawyer–Eliassen equations,when the RMW is large,the active convection in the outer region can weaken the radial inflow induced by the eyewall heating in the inner region,thus retarding the intensification by reducing the radial imports of vorticity near the RMW.展开更多
Prediction skill for the seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated using the coupled climate forecast system(version 1.0)of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technolo...Prediction skill for the seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated using the coupled climate forecast system(version 1.0)of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUISTCFS1.0).This assessment is based on the seven-month(May to November)hindcasts consisting of nine ensemble members during 1982–2019.The predictions are compared with the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis and observed tropical storms in the Northern Hemisphere.The results show that the overall distributions of the TC genesis and track densities in model hindcasts agree well with the observations,although the seasonal mean TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)are underestimated in all basins due to the low resolution(T106)of the atmospheric component in the model.NUIST-CFS1.0 closely predicts the interannual variations of TC frequency and ACE in the North Atlantic(NA)and eastern North Pacific(ENP),which have a good relationship with indexes based on the sea surface temperature.In the western North Pacific(WNP),NUIST-CFS1.0 can closely capture ACE,which is significantly correlated with the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),while it has difficulty forecasting the interannual variation of TC frequency in this area.When the WNP is further divided into eastern and western subregions,the model displays improved TC activity forecasting ability.Additionally,it is found that biases in predicted TC genesis locations lead to inaccurately represented TC–environment relationships,which may affect the capability of the model in reproducing the interannual variations of TC activity.展开更多
Black holes are recognized by Newton’s gravitational theory and Einstein’s general relativity, but there is still a lack of understanding the spatial structure of events, especially the nature of event horizon. In t...Black holes are recognized by Newton’s gravitational theory and Einstein’s general relativity, but there is still a lack of understanding the spatial structure of events, especially the nature of event horizon. In this paper, a theoretical analysis is used to compare the structures of tropical cyclone in the atmosphere and black hole in the astronomy so that five results are: 1) Both of them share the similar spatial structure, with tropical cyclone and black hole having the outflow cloud shield and the horizon sphere in the central part, respectively, while four spiral material bands exist in the rotating plane around them;2) In theoretically, the energy density formed by the orthogonal interaction of the four spiral material bands is as times as the total kinetic energy of the head-on interaction;3) This region of high energy density can lead to the conversion from mass to energy and the creation of new physical states of matter, which is a black hole event;4) The outer horizon of a black hole is the outermost interface of events, or the orthogonal interaction interface of particles;5) High-speed plasma jets extended at the poles of the black hole are directly associated with the shear stress of orthogonal interaction.展开更多
Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November...Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.展开更多
文摘This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt changes.Statistical comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track dataset.Although no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP data.Furthermore,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track dataset.The wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42288101)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK010201-02)+4 种基金GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010945)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20060503)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92158204,42176026,42005035,41906181)Lei YANG is also supported by Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022B1212050003)Special fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(SCSIO2023QY01).
文摘This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos:42150710531,42192551,61827901)supported this study.
文摘Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.
基金Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong Provincial Water Resources Department (2022-01)Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022A1515011870)+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team of Tropical Meteorology (CMA2023ZD08)Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2022LASW-B18)。
文摘Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19060102)Shanghai 2021“Scientific and technological innovation action plan”Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.21ZR1420400)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91958201)International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences Grant 183311KYSB20200015the National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scientist of China(Grant No.41605079)。
文摘This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October months of 1985-2014.The focus is on investigating the role of the tropical easterly jet over the Western Pacific(WP_TEJ)in modulating the simulation biases in terms of their climatological distribution and interannual variability of WNP TC genesis frequency(TCGF)based on the analysis of the genesis potential index(GPI).Results show that the two models reasonably capture the main TC genesis location,the maximum center of frequency,and track density;however,their biases mainly lie in simulating the intense TCs and TCGF distributions.The MRI better simulates the windpressure relationship(WPR)but overestimates the proportion of super typhoons(SSTYs).At the same time,FGOALS underestimates the WPR and the proportion of SSTYs but better simulates the total WNP TC precipitation.In particular,FGOALS overestimates the TCGF in the northeastern WNP,which is strongly tied to an overestimated WP_TEJ and the enhanced vertical circulation to the north of its entrance region.In contrast,the MRI simulates a weaker WP_TEJ and vertical circulation,leading to a negative TCGF bias in most of the WNP.Both models exhibit comparable capability in simulating the interannual variability of WP_TEJ intensity,but the composite difference of large-scale atmospheric factors between strong and weak WP_TEJ years is overestimated,resulting in larger interannual anomalies of WNP TCGF,especially for FGOALS.Therefore,accurate simulations of the WP_TEJ and the associated oceanic and atmospheric factors are crucial to further improving WNP TC simulations for both models.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41965005,41790471,42075013)Key R&D Plan of Yunnan Province Science and Technology Department(202203AC100006)National Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province(202201AS070069)。
文摘Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations.By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016,the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean SST and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this paper.Furthermore,the potential mechanism concerning the effect of SST anomaly on TC frequency is also investigated.The findings are as follows:1)there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and SST in the Indian Ocean from March to May,with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean(SWIO);2)the anomalies of SST in SWIO(SWIO-SST)are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean,which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence,mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO;3)the increasing trend of SWIO-SST may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Nature Scientific Foundation of China(Grant.Nos.41930971 and 41775061)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1506402)。
文摘Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in 2020.The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first time.The observing system experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of dropsonde data and CNOP sensitivity on TC forecasts in terms of track and intensity,using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.It is shown that the impact of assimilating all dropsonde data on both track and intensity forecasts is case-dependent.However,assimilation using only the dropsonde data inside the sensitive regions displays unanimously positive effects on both the track and intensity forecast,either of which obtains comparable benefits to or greatly reduces deterioration of the skill when assimilating all dropsonde data.Therefore,these results encourage us to further carry out targeting observations for the forecast of tropical cyclones according to CNOP sensitivity.
基金The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund(No.U1706226)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284).
文摘Hong Kong is often affected by tropical cyclones.The Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the region.The joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong can provide a scientific basis for disaster reduction and prevention and post-disaster reconstruction of tropical cyclones.First,the maximum hourly mean wind speed(W),warning signal duration(D),maximum sea level(L),and total rainfall(R)of each tropical cyclone that affected Hong Kong from 1985 to 2019 are selected and fitted using the Gumbel,Weibull,Pearson type 3,and lognormal distributions.Then,bivariate copula functions,such as the Clayton,Frank,Gumbel-Hougaard,and Gaussian copulas,are applied to construct the joint probability models of W,D,L,and R,respectively.The joint return periods of W and D and those of L and R are defined as the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones,respectively.The results show that the joint return periods are good indicators of the comprehensive effect of the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones.No necessary correlation between meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones exists.The meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones show an upward trend in recent years.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42088101 and 42175005)by the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX22_1137)。
文摘Coastal urban areas are prone to serious disasters caused by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs). Despite the crucial role of urban forcing in precipitation, how fine-scale urban features impact landfalling TC precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, high-resolution ensemble simulations of Typhoon Rumbia(2018), which crossed the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, were conducted to analyze the potential urban impact on TC precipitation. Results show that the inner-core rainfall of Rumbia is strengthened by approximately 10% due to the urban impact near the landfall,whereas minor differences in outer-core rainfall are found when the urban impact is excluded. Further diagnostic analyses indicate that low-level upward motion is crucial for precipitation evolution, as both co-vary during landfall. Moreover, the frictionally induced upward motion plays a decisive role in enhancing the rainfall when the urban impacts are included.Urban surface friction can decelerate the tangential wind and therefore destroy the gradient balance and strengthen the radial wind within the boundary layer and thus can enhance upward motion. This study demonstrates that urban surface friction and related physical processes make the most significant contribution to landfalling TC rainfall enhancement.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No. 2017YFC1501601the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 42175005 and 41875054
文摘In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examined using a Lagrangian trajectory method.Evaporatively forced downdrafts in the outer rainbands can transport low-entropy air downward,resulting in the lowestθ_(e)in the downshear-left boundary layer.Quantitative estimations ofθ_(e)recovery indicate that air parcels,especially those originating from the downshear-left outer core,can gradually revive from a low entropy state through surface enthalpy fluxes as the parcels move cyclonically.As a result,the maximumθ_(e)is observed in the downshear-right quadrant of a highly sheared TC.The trajectory analyses also indicate that parcels that move upward in the outer rainbands and those that travel through the inner core due to shear make a dominant contribution to the midlevel enhancement ofθ_(e)in the downshear-left outer core.In particular,the former plays a leading role in suchθ_(e)enhancements,while the latter plays a secondary role.As a result,moist potential stability occurs in the middle-to-lower troposphere in the downshear-left outer core.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China—Shandong Joint Fund under contract No.U1706226the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.52171284。
文摘The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFC3101500)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41830964, 42275062)
文摘The accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs)is a challenging task.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a dry-mass conserving(DMC)hydrostatic global spectral dynamical core on TC simulation.Experiments were conducted with DMC and total(moist)mass conserving(TMC)dynamical cores.The TC forecast performance was first evaluated considering 20 TCs in the West Pacific region observed during the 2020 typhoon season.The impacts of the DMC dynamical core on forecasts of individual TCs were then estimated.The DMC dynamical core improved both the track and intensity forecasts,and the TC intensity forecast improvement was much greater than the TC track forecast improvement.Sensitivity simulations indicated that the DMC dynamical core-simulated TC intensity was stronger regardless of the forecast lead time.In the DMC dynamical core experiments,three-dimensional winds and warm and moist cores were consistently enhanced with the TC intensity.Drier air in the boundary inflow layer was found in the DMC dynamical core experiments at the early simulation times.Water vapor mixing ratio budget analysis indicated that this mainly depended on the simulated vertical velocity.Higher updraft above the boundary layer yielded a drier boundary layer,resulting in surface latent heat flux(SLHF)enhancement,the major energy source of TC intensification.The higher DMC dynamical core-simulated updraft in the inner core caused a higher net surface rain rate,producing higher net internal atmospheric diabatic heating and increasing the TC intensity.These results indicate that the stronger DMC dynamical coresimulated TCs are mainly related to the higher DMC vertical velocity.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42105004, 41930967, 42192554, and 42105011)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (Grant No. LQ20D050001)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hangzhou Normal University (Grant No. 2020QDL015)。
文摘Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42176018,41876010)the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ202202401)the Graduate Student Fellowship from the China Scholarship Council for Zhaohua WANG(No.201806330006)。
文摘Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their inter-annual spatial and temporal variability.Then,the relationships between each empirical orthogonal function(EOF)mode and the typhoon count,typhoon landfall count,track pattern,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover(QXPSC)were examined,and the possible physical mechanisms implied by the statistical relationship were explored.The results show the QXPSC significantly affected the surface-atmosphere heat exchange through snow cover(SC)level,then changed the East Asian summer monsoon regional circulation pattern,influenced the subtropical high-pressure system strength and location,and ultimately affected the WNP TCs track patterns and thus changed their landfall locations.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42005011, 41830969)the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS (Grant Nos. 2021Z004)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.
基金The Major Projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.U21A6001the Program of Marine Economy Development Special Fund under Department of Natural Resources of Guangdong Province under contract No.GDNRC[2022]18+1 种基金the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)under contract No.SML2021SP207the Fund of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.LTO2001.
文摘Reliable wave information is critical for marine engineering.Numerical wave models are useful tools to obtain wave information with continuous spatiotemporal distributions.However,the accuracy of model results highly depends on the quality of wind forcing.In this study,we utilize observations from five buoys deployed in the northern South China Sea from August to September 2017.Notably,these buoys successfully recorded wind field and wave information during the passage of five tropical cyclones of different intensities without sustaining any damage.Based on these unique observations,we evaluated the quality of four widely used wind products,namely CFSv2,ERA5,CCMP,and ERAI.Our analysis showed that in the northern South China Sea,ERA5 performed best compared to buoy observations,especially in terms of maximum wind speed values at 10 m height(U10),extreme U10 occurrence time,and overall statistical indicators.CFSv2 tended to overestimate non-extreme U10 values.CCMP showed favorable statistical performance at only three of the five buoys,but underestimated extreme U10 values at all buoys.ERAI had the worst performance under both normal and tropical cyclone conditions.In terms of wave hindcast accuracy,ERA5 outperformed the other reanalysis products,with CFSv2 and CCMP following closely.ERAI showed poor performance especially in the upper significant wave heights.Furthermore,we found that the wave hindcasts did not improve with increasing spatiotemporal resolution,with spatial resolution up to 0.5°.These findings would help in improving wave hindcasts under extreme conditions.
基金This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42175073 and 41975071).
文摘This study investigates the modulation of initial wind field structure on the relationship between the size and intensity of a simulated vortex.A series of idealized experiments are conducted by varying the radius of maximum wind(RMW)and shape parameter of the initial vortices.The size–intensity relationship is quantified by the linear regression coefficient of the azimuthally-averaged gale-force wind radius against the maximum wind during the development stage,reflecting the degree of size expansion at the same intensity increment.The regression coefficient increases with increased RMW and decreased,with the RMW being the primary constraint.The effect of lowering on the elevation of the regression coefficient gradually stands out when the initial RMW is large.Enlarging the RMW leads to a secondary circulation with a horizontally elongated structure,which retards the intensification while promoting size expansion,thus substantially enhancing size expansion as the vortex intensifies.Broadening the wind field outside the RMW by reducing results in abounding convection in the outer region,which promotes size expansion.Based on the axisymmetric tangential wind tendency and Sawyer–Eliassen equations,when the RMW is large,the active convection in the outer region can weaken the radial inflow induced by the eyewall heating in the inner region,thus retarding the intensification by reducing the radial imports of vorticity near the RMW.
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000)the Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42005002,42030605,and 42105003)。
文摘Prediction skill for the seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated using the coupled climate forecast system(version 1.0)of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUISTCFS1.0).This assessment is based on the seven-month(May to November)hindcasts consisting of nine ensemble members during 1982–2019.The predictions are compared with the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis and observed tropical storms in the Northern Hemisphere.The results show that the overall distributions of the TC genesis and track densities in model hindcasts agree well with the observations,although the seasonal mean TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)are underestimated in all basins due to the low resolution(T106)of the atmospheric component in the model.NUIST-CFS1.0 closely predicts the interannual variations of TC frequency and ACE in the North Atlantic(NA)and eastern North Pacific(ENP),which have a good relationship with indexes based on the sea surface temperature.In the western North Pacific(WNP),NUIST-CFS1.0 can closely capture ACE,which is significantly correlated with the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),while it has difficulty forecasting the interannual variation of TC frequency in this area.When the WNP is further divided into eastern and western subregions,the model displays improved TC activity forecasting ability.Additionally,it is found that biases in predicted TC genesis locations lead to inaccurately represented TC–environment relationships,which may affect the capability of the model in reproducing the interannual variations of TC activity.
文摘Black holes are recognized by Newton’s gravitational theory and Einstein’s general relativity, but there is still a lack of understanding the spatial structure of events, especially the nature of event horizon. In this paper, a theoretical analysis is used to compare the structures of tropical cyclone in the atmosphere and black hole in the astronomy so that five results are: 1) Both of them share the similar spatial structure, with tropical cyclone and black hole having the outflow cloud shield and the horizon sphere in the central part, respectively, while four spiral material bands exist in the rotating plane around them;2) In theoretically, the energy density formed by the orthogonal interaction of the four spiral material bands is as times as the total kinetic energy of the head-on interaction;3) This region of high energy density can lead to the conversion from mass to energy and the creation of new physical states of matter, which is a black hole event;4) The outer horizon of a black hole is the outermost interface of events, or the orthogonal interaction interface of particles;5) High-speed plasma jets extended at the poles of the black hole are directly associated with the shear stress of orthogonal interaction.
文摘Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.