Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones:A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.

Westerlies Affecting the Seasonal Variation of Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.

Roles of Upper-Level Descending Inflow in Moat Development in Simulated Tropical Cyclones with Secondary Eyewall Formation

This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant ULDI.The eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically unstable.The ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil cloud.The ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further outward.It produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer convection.The sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer convection.As a result,a clear moat was generated.Development of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer eyewall.In the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less likely.This study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF.

Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method(FCM)according to their track patterns.The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown.Most tropical cyclones(TCs)that were assigned to clusters C2,C5,and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries,which severely threatened these regions.Among landfalling TCs,93.2%completed their ET after landfall,whereas 39.8%of ETCs completed their transition within one day.The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades,wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern,owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters,a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades.The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs.Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields,which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP.

Effects of Dropsonde Data in Field Campaigns on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific in 2020 and the Role of CNOP Sensitivity

Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in 2020.The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first time.The observing system experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of dropsonde data and CNOP sensitivity on TC forecasts in terms of track and intensity,using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.It is shown that the impact of assimilating all dropsonde data on both track and intensity forecasts is case-dependent.However,assimilation using only the dropsonde data inside the sensitive regions displays unanimously positive effects on both the track and intensity forecast,either of which obtains comparable benefits to or greatly reduces deterioration of the skill when assimilating all dropsonde data.Therefore,these results encourage us to further carry out targeting observations for the forecast of tropical cyclones according to CNOP sensitivity.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones and Storms over the Southwestern Indian Ocean Region Using the Generalized Linear Models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.

Intensity Estimation of Extreme Meteorological and Hydrological Factors Induced by Tropical Cyclones Affecting Hong Kong

Hong Kong is often affected by tropical cyclones.The Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the region.The joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong can provide a scientific basis for disaster reduction and prevention and post-disaster reconstruction of tropical cyclones.First,the maximum hourly mean wind speed(W),warning signal duration(D),maximum sea level(L),and total rainfall(R)of each tropical cyclone that affected Hong Kong from 1985 to 2019 are selected and fitted using the Gumbel,Weibull,Pearson type 3,and lognormal distributions.Then,bivariate copula functions,such as the Clayton,Frank,Gumbel-Hougaard,and Gaussian copulas,are applied to construct the joint probability models of W,D,L,and R,respectively.The joint return periods of W and D and those of L and R are defined as the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones,respectively.The results show that the joint return periods are good indicators of the comprehensive effect of the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones.No necessary correlation between meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones exists.The meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones show an upward trend in recent years.

A Lagrangian Trajectory Analysis of Azimuthally Asymmetric Equivalent Potential Temperature in the Outer Core of Sheared Tropical Cyclones

In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examined using a Lagrangian trajectory method.Evaporatively forced downdrafts in the outer rainbands can transport low-entropy air downward,resulting in the lowestθ_(e)in the downshear-left boundary layer.Quantitative estimations ofθ_(e)recovery indicate that air parcels,especially those originating from the downshear-left outer core,can gradually revive from a low entropy state through surface enthalpy fluxes as the parcels move cyclonically.As a result,the maximumθ_(e)is observed in the downshear-right quadrant of a highly sheared TC.The trajectory analyses also indicate that parcels that move upward in the outer rainbands and those that travel through the inner core due to shear make a dominant contribution to the midlevel enhancement ofθ_(e)in the downshear-left outer core.In particular,the former plays a leading role in suchθ_(e)enhancements,while the latter plays a secondary role.As a result,moist potential stability occurs in the middle-to-lower troposphere in the downshear-left outer core.

Hazard risk assessment of tropical cyclones based on joint probability theory

The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.

Predecessor Rain Events in the Yangtze River Delta Region Associated with South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO)Tropical Cyclones

Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.

Effects of a Dry-Mass Conserving Dynamical Core on the Simulation of Tropical Cyclones

The accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs)is a challenging task.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a dry-mass conserving(DMC)hydrostatic global spectral dynamical core on TC simulation.Experiments were conducted with DMC and total(moist)mass conserving(TMC)dynamical cores.The TC forecast performance was first evaluated considering 20 TCs in the West Pacific region observed during the 2020 typhoon season.The impacts of the DMC dynamical core on forecasts of individual TCs were then estimated.The DMC dynamical core improved both the track and intensity forecasts,and the TC intensity forecast improvement was much greater than the TC track forecast improvement.Sensitivity simulations indicated that the DMC dynamical core-simulated TC intensity was stronger regardless of the forecast lead time.In the DMC dynamical core experiments,three-dimensional winds and warm and moist cores were consistently enhanced with the TC intensity.Drier air in the boundary inflow layer was found in the DMC dynamical core experiments at the early simulation times.Water vapor mixing ratio budget analysis indicated that this mainly depended on the simulated vertical velocity.Higher updraft above the boundary layer yielded a drier boundary layer,resulting in surface latent heat flux(SLHF)enhancement,the major energy source of TC intensification.The higher DMC dynamical core-simulated updraft in the inner core caused a higher net surface rain rate,producing higher net internal atmospheric diabatic heating and increasing the TC intensity.These results indicate that the stronger DMC dynamical coresimulated TCs are mainly related to the higher DMC vertical velocity.

Influences of MJO-induced Tropical Cyclones on the Circulation-Convection Inconsistency for the 2021 South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.

Infl uence of sequential tropical cyclones on phytoplankton blooms in the northwestern South China Sea

Upper ocean responses to the passage of sequential tropical cyclones over the northwestern South China Sea(SCS)in 2011 were investigated using satellite remote sensing data,Argo reanalysis data,and an array of mooring data.We found that the sea surface low temperature region lasted for more than 38 days and two phytoplankton blooms occurred after the passage of sequential tropical cyclones.The upper ocean cooling reached 2–5°C with a right-side bias was observed along the typhoon track to about 200 km.The maintenance of low temperature region and the two phytoplankton blooms were mainly driven by upwelling and near-inertial turbulence mixing induced by the sequential tropical cyclones.The fi rst phytoplankton bloom appeared on the 7 th day after the passage of the three tropical cyclones,and the chlorophyll-a(chl-a)concentration increased by 226%,which may be mainly driven by typhoons induced upwelling.The second phytoplankton bloom occurred on the 30 th day,the chl-a concentration increased by 290%.Further analysis suggested that only the typhoons with similar characteristics as Nesat and Nalgae can induce strong near-inertial oscillation(NIO).Strong turbulent mixing associated with the near-inertial baroclinic shear instability lasted for 26 days.The measured mean eddy diff usivity in the upper ocean was above 10-4 m 2/s after typhoon Nesat.Enhancement of the turbulent mixing in the upper ocean helped to transport nutrient-rich cold waters from the deep layer to the euphotic layer,and is a major mechanism for the long-term maintenance of low temperature region as well as the second phytoplankton bloom.

An Overview of Research and Forecasting on Rainfall Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones （LTCs） can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition （ET）, interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） and quantitative precipitation forecasting （QPF）. More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.

A 28-Year Climatological Analysis of Size Parameters for Northwestern Pacific Tropical Cyclones

A 28-year best track dataset containing size parameters that include the radii of the 15.4 m s^-1 winds （R15） and the 25.7 m s^-1 winds （R26） of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the Northwestern Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature （ERSST） dataset are employed in this study. The climatology of size parameters for the tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific from 1977 to 2004 is investigated in terms of the spatial and temporal distributions. The results show that the major activity of TCs in the Northwestern Pacific is from July to October. A majority of TCs lie over the ocean west of 150°E, and a few TCs can intensify to the Saffir-Simpson （S-S） categories 4, 5. Both R15 and R26 tend to increase as the tropical cyclones intensify. The values of R15 and R26 are larger for intense TCs in the Northwestern Pacific than in the North Atlantic generally. Both R15 and R26 peak in October, and before and after October, R15 and R26 decrease, which is different from the case in the North Atlantic. The smaller R15s and R26s occur in a large range over the Northwestern Pacific, while the larger R15s and R26s mainly lie in the eastern ocean from Taiwan Island to the Philippine Islands where many tropical cyclones develop in intense systems. The tropical cyclones with size parameters of R15 or R26 on average take a longer time to intensify than to weaken, and the weak tropical cyclones have faster weakening rates than intensification rates. From 1977 to 2004, the annual mean values of R15 increase basically with year; during the 28-year period, the value of R15 increases by 52.7 kin, but R26 does not change with year obviously.

Contribution of South China Sea Tropical Cyclones to an Increase in Southern China Summer Rainfall Around 1993

The increase in southern China summer rainfall around 1993 was accompanied by an increase in tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea. This study documents the connection of these two features. Our analysis shows that the contribution of tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea to southern China summer rainfall experienced a significant increase around 1993, in particular, along the coast and in the heavy rain category. The number of tropical cyclones that formed in the western North Pacific and entered the South China Sea decreased, and their contribution to summer rainfall was reduced in eastern part of southern China （but statistically insignificant）. The increase in tropical cyclone-induced rainfall contributed up to -30＆ of the total rainfall increase along the coastal regions. The increase of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea appears to be related to an increase in local sea surface temperature.

Decadal Variations of Intense Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during 1948–2010

Using Joint Warning Typhoon Center （JTWC） best track data during the period 1948-2010, decadal and interdecadal changes of annual category 4 and 5 tropical cyclone （TC） frequency in the western North Pacific basin were examined. By allowing all of the observed TCs in the JTWC dataset to move along the observed TC tracks in a TC intensity model, the annual category 4 and 5 TC frequency was simulated. The results agreed well with observations when the TC intensity prior to 1973 was adjusted based on time-dependent biases due to changes in measurement and reporting practices. The simulated and adjusted time series showed significant decadal （12-18 years） variability, while the interdecadal （18-32 years） variability was found to be statistically insignificant. Numerical simulations indicated that changes in TC tracks are the most important factor for the decadal variability in the category 4 and 5 TC frequency in the western North Pacific basin, while a combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear also contributes to the decadal variability. Further analysis suggested that the active phase of category 4 and 5 TCs is closely associated with an eastward shift in the TC formation locations, which allows more TCs to follow a longer journey, favoring the development of category 4 and 5 TCs. The active phase corresponds with the SST warming over the tropical central and eastern Pacific and the eastward extension of the monsoon trough, thus leading to the eastward shift in TC formation locations.

Establishment of an Objective Standard for the Definition of Binary Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

To develop an objective standard for defining binary tropical cyclones(BTCs)in the western North Pacific(WNP),two best-track datasets,from the China Meteorological Administration and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,were adopted for statistical analyses on two important characteristics of BTCs-two TCs approaching each other,and counterclockwise spinning.Based on the high consistency between the two datasets,we established an objective standard,which includes a main standard for defining BTCs and a secondary standard for identifying typical/atypical BTCs.The main standard includes two requirements:two coexisting TCs are a pair of BTCs if(i)the separation distance is≤1800 km,and(ii)this separation maintains for at least 12 h.Meanwhile,the secondary standard defines a typical BTC as one for which there is at least one observation when the two TCs approach each other and spin counterclockwise simultaneously.Under the standard,the ratio of typical BTCs increases as the BTC duration increases or the minimum distance between the two TCs decreases.Then,using the JTWC dataset,it was found that there are 505 pairs of BTCs during the period 1951−2014,including 328 typical BTCs and 177 atypical BTCs,accounting for 65.0%and 35.0%of the total,respectively.In addition,a study of two extreme phenomena-the maximum approaching speed and the maximum counterclockwise angular velocity in typical BTCs-shows that the configuration of the circulation conditions and the distribution of the BTCs favor the formation of these extreme phenomena.

Impact of the Monsoonal Surge on Extreme Rainfall of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

A comparative analysis and quantitative diagnosis has been conducted of extreme rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones(ERLTC)and non-extreme rainfall(NERLTC)using the dynamic composite analysis method.Reanalysis data and the tropical cyclone precipitation dataset derived from the objective synoptic analysis technique were used.Results show that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(Q_(vt))during the ERLTC is significantly higher than that during the NERLTC.The Q_(vt)reaches a peak 1−2 days before the occurrence of the ERLTC and then decreases rapidly.There is a stronger convergence for both the Q_(vt)and the horizontal wind field during the ERLTC.The Q_(vt)convergence and the wind field convergence are mainly confined to the lower troposphere.The water vapor budget on the four boundaries of the tropical cyclone indicates that water vapor is input through all four boundaries before the occurrence of the ERLTC,whereas water vapor is output continuously from the northern boundary before the occurrence of the NERLTC.The water vapor inflow on both the western and southern boundaries of the ERLTC exceeds that during the NERLTC,mainly as a result of the different intensities of the southwest monsoonal surge in the surrounding environmental field.Within the background of the East Asian summer monsoon,the low-level jet accompanying the southwest monsoonal surge can increase the inflow of water vapor at both the western and southern boundaries during the ERLTC and therefore could enhance the convergence of the horizontal wind field and the water vapor flux,thereby resulting in the ERLTC.On the other hand,the southwest monsoonal surge decreases the zonal mean steering flow,which leads to a slower translation speed for the tropical cyclone associated with the ERLTC.Furthermore,a dynamic monsoon surge index(DMSI)defined here can be simply linked with the ERLTC and could be used as a new predictor for future operational forecasting of ERLTC.

The Simulation of Five Tropical Cyclones by Sample Optimization of Ensemble Forecasting Based on the Observed Track and Intensity

The quality of ensemble forecasting is seriously affected by sample quality.In this study,the distributions of ensemble members based on the observed track and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)were optimized and their influence on the simulation results was analyzed.Simulated and observed tracks and intensities of TCs were compared and these two indicators were combined and weighted to score the sample.Samples with higher scores were retained and samples with lower scores were eliminated to improve the overall quality of the ensemble forecast.For each sample,the track score and intensity score were added as the final score of the sample with weight proportions of 10 to 0,9 to 1,8 to 2,7 to 3,6 to 4,5 to 5.These were named as“tr”,“91”,“82”,“73”,“64”,and“55”,respectively.The WRF model was used to simulate five tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific to test the ability of this scheme to improve the forecast track and intensity of these cyclones.The results show that the sample optimization effectively reduced the track and intensity error,“55”usually had better performance on the short-term intensity prediction,and“tr”had better performance in short-term track prediction.From the overall performance of the track and intensity simulation,“91”was the best and most stable among all sample optimization schemes.These results may provide some guidance for optimizing operational ensemble forecasting of TCs.