Evaluation of frictional pressure drop correlations for air-water and air-oil two-phase flow in pipeline-riser system

Accurate prediction of the frictional pressure drop is important for the design and operation of subsea oil and gas transporting system considering the length of the pipeline. The applicability of the correlations to pipeline-riser flow needs evaluation since the flow condition in pipeline-riser is quite different from the original data where they were derived from. In the present study, a comprehensive evaluation of 24prevailing correlation in predicting frictional pressure drop is carried out based on experimentally measured data of air-water and air-oil two-phase flows in pipeline-riser. Experiments are performed in a system having different configuration of pipeline-riser with the inclination of the downcomer varied from-2°to-5°to investigated the effect of the elbow on the frictional pressure drop in the riser. The inlet gas velocity ranges from 0.03 to 6.2 m/s, and liquid velocity varies from 0.02 to 1.3 m/s. A total of885 experimental data points including 782 on air-water flows and 103 on air-oil flows are obtained and used to access the prediction ability of the correlations. Comparison of the predicted results with the measured data indicate that a majority of the investigated correlations under-predict the pressure drop on severe slugging. The result of this study highlights the requirement of new method considering the effect of pipe layout on the frictional pressure drop.

Pressure transient characteristics of non-uniform conductivity fractured wells in viscoelasticity polymer flooding based on oil-water two-phase flow

Polymer flooding in fractured wells has been extensively applied in oilfields to enhance oil recovery.In contrast to water,polymer solution exhibits non-Newtonian and nonlinear behavior such as effects of shear thinning and shear thickening,polymer convection,diffusion,adsorption retention,inaccessible pore volume and reduced effective permeability.Meanwhile,the flux density and fracture conductivity along the hydraulic fracture are generally non-uniform due to the effects of pressure distribution,formation damage,and proppant breakage.In this paper,we present an oil-water two-phase flow model that captures these complex non-Newtonian and nonlinear behavior,and non-uniform fracture characteristics in fractured polymer flooding.The hydraulic fracture is firstly divided into two parts:high-conductivity fracture near the wellbore and low-conductivity fracture in the far-wellbore section.A hybrid grid system,including perpendicular bisection(PEBI)and Cartesian grid,is applied to discrete the partial differential flow equations,and the local grid refinement method is applied in the near-wellbore region to accurately calculate the pressure distribution and shear rate of polymer solution.The combination of polymer behavior characterizations and numerical flow simulations are applied,resulting in the calculation for the distribution of water saturation,polymer concentration and reservoir pressure.Compared with the polymer flooding well with uniform fracture conductivity,this non-uniform fracture conductivity model exhibits the larger pressure difference,and the shorter bilinear flow period due to the decrease of fracture flow ability in the far-wellbore section.The field case of the fall-off test demonstrates that the proposed method characterizes fracture characteristics more accurately,and yields fracture half-lengths that better match engineering reality,enabling a quantitative segmented characterization of the near-wellbore section with high fracture conductivity and the far-wellbore section with low fracture conductivity.The novelty of this paper is the analysis of pressure performances caused by the fracture dynamics and polymer rheology,as well as an analysis method that derives formation and fracture parameters based on the pressure and its derivative curves.

Numerical Simulations of Wave Impact Forces on the Open-Type Sea Access Road Using A Two-Phase SPH Model

A numerical study based on a two-dimensional two-phase SPH(Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics)model to analyze the action of water waves on open-type sea access roads is presented.The study is a continuation of the analyses presented by Chen et al.(2022),in which the sea access roads are semi-immersed.In this new configuration,the sea access roads are placed above the still water level,therefore the presence of the air phase becomes a relevant issue in the determination of the wave forces acting on the structures.Indeed,the comparison of wave forces on the open-type sea access roads obtained from the single and two-phase SPH models with the experimental results shows that the latter are in much better agreement.So in the numerical simulations,a two-phaseδ-SPH model is adopted to investigate the dynamical problems.Based on the numerical results,the maximum horizontal and uplifting wave forces acting on the sea access roads are analyzed by considering different wave conditions and geometries of the structures.In particular,the presence of the girder is analyzed and the differences in the wave forces due to the air cushion effects which are created below the structure are highlighted.

Integrated numerical simulation of hydraulic fracturing and production in shale gas well considering gas-water two-phase flow

Based on the displacement discontinuity method and the discrete fracture unified pipe network model,a sequential iterative numerical method was used to build a fracturing-production integrated numerical model of shale gas well considering the two-phase flow of gas and water.The model accounts for the influence of natural fractures and matrix properties on the fracturing process and directly applies post-fracturing formation pressure and water saturation distribution to subsequent well shut-in and production simulation,allowing for a more accurate fracturing-production integrated simulation.The results show that the reservoir physical properties have great impacts on fracture propagation,and the reasonable prediction of formation pressure and reservoir fluid distribution after the fracturing is critical to accurately predict the gas and fluid production of the shale gas wells.Compared with the conventional method,the proposed model can more accurately simulate the water and gas production by considering the impact of fracturing on both matrix pressure and water saturation.The established model is applied to the integrated fracturing-production simulation of practical horizontal shale gas wells.The simulation results are in good agreement with the practical production data,thus verifying the accuracy of the model.

Simulation of Two-Phase Flowback Phenomena in Shale Gas Wells

The gas-water two-phaseflow occurring as a result of fracturingfluidflowback phenomena is known to impact significantly the productivity of shale gas well.In this work,this two-phaseflow has been simulated in the framework of a hybrid approach partially relying on the embedded discrete fracture model(EDFM).This model assumes the region outside the stimulated reservoir volume(SRV)as a single-medium while the SRV region itself is described using a double-medium strategy which can account for thefluid exchange between the matrix and the micro-fractures.The shale gas adsorption,desorption,diffusion,gas slippage effect,fracture stress sensitivity,and capillary imbibition have been considered.The shale gas production,pore pressure distribution and water saturation distribution in the reservoir have been simulated.The influences of hydraulic fracture geometry and nonorthogonal hydraulic fractures on gas production have been determined and discussed accordingly.The simulation results show that the daily gas production has an upward and downward trend due to the presence of a large amount of fracturingfluid in the reservoir around the hydraulic fracture.The smaller the angle between the hydraulic fracture and the wellbore,the faster the daily production of shale gas wells decreases,and the lower the cumulative production.Nonplanar fractures can increase the control volume of hydraulic fractures and improve the production of shale gas wells.

Arbitrary High-Order Fully-Decoupled Numerical Schemes for Phase-Field Models of Two-Phase Incompressible Flows

Due to the coupling between the hydrodynamic equation and the phase-field equation in two-phase incompressible flows,it is desirable to develop efficient and high-order accurate numerical schemes that can decouple these two equations.One popular and efficient strategy is to add an explicit stabilizing term to the convective velocity in the phase-field equation to decouple them.The resulting schemes are only first-order accurate in time,and it seems extremely difficult to generalize the idea of stabilization to the second-order or higher version.In this paper,we employ the spectral deferred correction method to improve the temporal accuracy,based on the first-order decoupled and energy-stable scheme constructed by the stabilization idea.The novelty lies in how the decoupling and linear implicit properties are maintained to improve the efficiency.Within the framework of the spatially discretized local discontinuous Galerkin method,the resulting numerical schemes are fully decoupled,efficient,and high-order accurate in both time and space.Numerical experiments are performed to validate the high-order accuracy and efficiency of the methods for solving phase-field models of two-phase incompressible flows.

Numerical Simulation of Oil-Water Two-Phase Flow in Low Permeability Tight Reservoirs Based on Weighted Least Squares Meshless Method

In response to the complex characteristics of actual low-permeability tight reservoirs,this study develops a meshless-based numerical simulation method for oil-water two-phase flow in these reservoirs,considering complex boundary shapes.Utilizing radial basis function point interpolation,the method approximates shape functions for unknown functions within the nodal influence domain.The shape functions constructed by the aforementioned meshless interpolation method haveδ-function properties,which facilitate the handling of essential aspects like the controlled bottom-hole flow pressure in horizontal wells.Moreover,the meshless method offers greater flexibility and freedom compared to grid cell discretization,making it simpler to discretize complex geometries.A variational principle for the flow control equation group is introduced using a weighted least squares meshless method,and the pressure distribution is solved implicitly.Example results demonstrate that the computational outcomes of the meshless point cloud model,which has a relatively small degree of freedom,are in close agreement with those of the Discrete Fracture Model(DFM)employing refined grid partitioning,with pressure calculation accuracy exceeding 98.2%.Compared to high-resolution grid-based computational methods,the meshless method can achieve a better balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.Additionally,the impact of fracture half-length on the productivity of horizontal wells is discussed.The results indicate that increasing the fracture half-length is an effective strategy for enhancing production from the perspective of cumulative oil production.

Assessment of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants for Waste Heat Recovery in Data Center with On-Chip Two-Phase Cooling Loop

Data centers(DCs)are highly energy-intensive facilities,where about 30%–50%of the power consumed is attributable to the cooling of information technology equipment.This makes liquid cooling,especially in twophase mode,as an alternative to air cooling for the microprocessors in servers of interest.The need to meet the increased power density of server racks in high-performance DCs,along with the push towards lower global warming potential(GWP)refrigerants due to environmental concerns,has motivated research on the selection of two-phase heat transfer fluids for cooling servers while simultaneously recovering waste heat.With this regard,a heat pump-assisted absorption chiller(HPAAC)system for recovering waste heat in DCs with an on-chip twophase cooling loop driven by the compressor is proposed in the present paper and the low GWP hydrofluoroolefin refrigerants,including R1224yd(Z),R1233zd(E),R1234yf,R1234ze(E),R1234ze(Z),R1243zf and R1336mzz(Z),are evaluated and compared against R245fa as server coolant.For theHPAAC system,beginning with the development of energy and economic models,the performance is analyzed through both a parametric study and optimization using the coefficient of performance(COP),energy saving ratio(ESR),payback period(PBP)and net present value(NPV)as thermo-economic indicators.Using a standard vapor compression cooling system as a benchmark,the results indicate that with the evaporation temperature between 50℃and 70℃and the subcooling degree ranging from5℃to 15°C,R1233zd(E)with moderate compressor suction pressure and pressure ratio is the best refrigerant for the HPAAC systemwhile R1234yf performs the worst.More importantly,R1233zd(E)is also superior to R245fa based on thermo-economic performance,especially under work conditions with relatively lower evaporation temperature as well as subcooling degree.Under the given working conditions,the overall COP,ESR,NPV,and PBP of R1233zd(E)HPAAC with optimum subcooling degree range from4.99 to 11.27,25.53 to 64.59,1.13 to 4.10×10^(7) CNY and 5.77 to 2.22 years,respectively.Besides,the thermo-economic performance of R1233zd(E)HPAAC under optimum working conditions in terms of subcooling degree varying with the evaporation temperature is also investigated.

Identifying the enhancement mechanism of Al/MoO_(3) reactive multilayered films on the ignition ability of semiconductor bridge using a one-dimensional gas-solid two-phase flow model

Energetic Semiconductor bridge(ESCB)based on reactive multilayered films(RMFs)has a promising application in the miniature and intelligence of initiator and pyrotechnics device.Understanding the ignition enhancement mechanism of RMFs on semiconductor bridge(SCB)during the ignition process is crucial for the engineering and practical application of advanced initiator and pyrotechnics devices.In this study,a one-dimensional(1D)gas-solid two-phase flow ignition model was established to study the ignition process of ESCB to charge particles based on the reactivity of Al/MoO_(3) RMFs.In order to fully consider the coupled exothermic between the RMFs and the SCB plasma during the ignition process,the heat release of chemical reaction in RMFs was used as an internal heat source in this model.It is found that the exothermal reaction in RMFs improved the ignition performance of SCB.In the process of plasma rapid condensation with heat release,the product of RMFs enhanced the heat transfer process between the gas phase and the solid charge particle,which accelerated the expansion of hot plasma,and heated the solid charge particle as well as gas phase region with low temperature.In addition,it made up for pressure loss in the gas phase.During the plasma dissipation process,the exothermal chemical reaction in RMFs acted as the main heating source to heat the charge particle,making the surface temperature of the charge particle,gas pressure,and gas temperature rise continuously.This result may yield significant advantages in providing a universal ignition model for miniaturized ignition devices.

Optimizing Two-Phase Flow Heat Transfer:DCS Hybrid Modeling and Automation in Coal-Fired Power Plant Boilers

In response to escalating challenges in energy conservation and emission reduction,this study delves into the complexities of heat transfer in two-phase flows and adjustments to combustion processes within coal-fired boilers.Utilizing a fusion of hybrid modeling and automation technologies,we develop soft measurement models for key combustion parameters,such as the net calorific value of coal,flue gas oxygen content,and fly ash carbon content,within theDistributedControl System(DCS).Validated with performance test data,thesemodels exhibit controlled root mean square error(RMSE)and maximum absolute error(MAXE)values,both within the range of 0.203.Integrated into their respective automatic control systems,thesemodels optimize two-phase flow heat transfer,finetune combustion conditions,and mitigate incomplete combustion.Furthermore,this paper conducts an in-depth exploration of the generationmechanismof nitrogen oxides(NOx)and low oxygen emission reduction technology in coal-fired boilers,demonstrating a substantial reduction in furnace exit NOx generation by 30%to 40%and the power supply coal consumption decreased by 1.62 g/(kW h).The research outcomes highlight the model’s rapid responsiveness,enabling prompt reflection of transient variations in various economic indicator parameters.This provides a more effective means for real-time monitoring of crucial variables in coal-fired boilers and facilitates timely combustion adjustments,underscoring notable achievements in boiler combustion.The research not only provides valuable and practical insights into the intricacies of two-phase flow heat transfer and heat exchange but also establishes a pioneering methodology for tackling industry challenges.

A Note on an Order Level Inventory Model with Varying Two-Phased Demand and Time-Proportional Deterioration

The main purpose of this paper is to generalize the effect of two-phased demand and variable deterioration within the EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) framework. The rate of deterioration is a linear function of time. The two-phased demand function states the constant function for a certain period and the quadratic function of time for the rest part of the cycle time. No shortages as well as partial backlogging are allowed to occur. The mathematical expressions are derived for determining the optimal cycle time, order quantity and total cost function. An easy-to-use working procedure is provided to calculate the above quantities. A couple of numerical examples are cited to explain the theoretical results and sensitivity analysis of some selected examples is carried out.

Numerical Solutions of the Classical and Modified Buckley-Leverett Equations Applied to Two-Phase Fluid Flow

Climate change is a reality. The burning of fossil fuels from oil, natural gas and coal is responsible for much of the pollution and the increase in the planet’s average temperature, which has raised discussions on the subject, given the emergencies related to climate. An energy transition to clean and renewable sources is necessary and urgent, but it will not be quick. In this sense, increasing the efficiency of oil extraction from existing sources is crucial, to avoid waste and the drilling of new wells. The purpose of this work was to add diffusive and dispersive terms to the Buckley-Leverett equation in order to incorporate extra phenomena in the temporal evolution between the water-oil and oil-water transitions in the pipeline. For this, the modified Buckley-Leverett equation was discretized via essentially weighted non-oscillatory schemes, coupled with a three-stage Runge-Kutta and a fourth-order centered finite difference methods. Then, computational simulations were performed and the results showed that new features emerge in the transitions, when compared to classical simulations. For instance, the dispersive term inhibits the diffusive term, adding oscillations, which indicates that the absorption of the fluid by the porous medium occurs in a non-homogeneous manner. Therefore, based on research such as this, decisions can be made regarding the replacement of the porous medium or the insertion of new components to delay the replacement.

New numerical algorithm of gas-liquid two-phase flow considering characteristics of liquid metal during mold filling

A new program is developed for gas-liquid two-phase mold filling simulation in casting. The gas fluid, the superheated liquid metal and the liquid metal containing solid grains are assumed to be governed by Navier-Stokes equations and solved through Projection method. The Level set method is used to track the gas-liquid interface boundary. In order to demonstrate the correctness of this new program for simulation of gas-liquid two-phase mold filling in casting, a benchmark filling experiment is simulated （this benchmark test is designed by XU and the filling process is recorded by a 16-mm film camera）. The simulated results agree very well with the experimental results, showing that this new program can be used to properly predicate the gas-liquid two-phase mold filling simulation in casting.

Design and Experimental Analyses of Small-flow High-head Centrifugal-vortex Pump for Gas-Liquid Two-phase Mixture

The design method of small-flow high-head centrifugal-vortex pump was presented. This pump, configured with inducer, complex-centrifugal impeller and open-vortex impeller, was put forward to deliver gas-liquid two-phase mixture. An HTB-5/60 type sample pump was developed and tested on a closed-loop test rig. Experimental studies on performance and cavitation tests for gas-liquid two-phase mixture were carried out compared with pure-water experimental results. Also the effect of gas phase on pump was analyzed and discussed. The experimental results show that performance and cavitation characteristics of the sample purnp deteriorates progressively with increasing volume fraction of gas. When the total capacity Qm is between 4.5 m^3·h^-1 and 6 m^3·h^-1 and the gas flow rate qg below 0.66 m^3·h^-1, or qg/Qm is lower than 15%, the characteristic curves are approximately parallel to those in pure water test, but the performance deteriorates sharply until an abrupt flow-cutting at a critical volume fraction of gas. This pump is found suitable for transporting gas-liquid two-phase mixture when working around rated capacity of 5 m^3·h^-1 with qglQm below 15%.

Flow Regime Identification of Gas-liquid Two-phase Flow Based on HHT

A new method to identify flow regime in two-phase flow was presented, based on signal processing of differential pressure using Hilbert Huang transform （HHT）. Signals obtained from a Venturi meter were decomposed into different intrinsic mode functions （IMFs） with HHT, then the energy fraction of each intrinsic mode and the mean value of residual function were calculated, from which the rules of flow regime identification were summarized. Experiments were carried out on two-phase flow in the horizontal tubes with 50mm and 40mm inner diameter, while water flowrate was in the range of 1.3m^3.h^-1 to 10.5m^3.h^-1, oil flowrate was from 4.2m^3.h^-1 to 7.0m^3.h^-1 and gas flowrate from 0 to 15m^3.h^-1. The results show that the proposed rules have high precision for single phase, bubbly, and slug, plug flow regirne identification, which are independent of not only properties of two-phase fluid. In addition, the method can meet the need of industrial application because of its simple calculation.

Numerical modeling and parametric sensitivity analysis of heat transfer and two-phase oil and water flow characteristics in horizontal and inclined flowlines using OpenFOAM

Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to the temperature difference between the fluids and the surroundings. Heat transfer analysis is very important for the prediction and prevention of deposits in oil and water flowlines, which could impede the flow and give rise to huge financial losses. Therefore, a 3D mathematical model of oil-water Newtonian flow under non-isothermal conditions is established to explore the complex mechanisms of the two-phase oil-water transportation and heat transfer in different flowline inclinations. In this work, a non-isothermal two-phase flow model is first modified and then implemented in the InterFoam solver by introducing the energy equation using OpenFOAM® code. The Low Reynolds Number (LRN) k-ε turbulence model is utilized to resolve the turbulence phenomena within the oil and water mixtures. The flow patterns and the local heat transfer coefficients (HTC) for two-phase oil-water flow at different flowlines inclinations (0°, +4°, +7°) are validated by the experimental literature results and the relative errors are also compared. Global sensitivity analysis is then conducted to determine the effect of the different parameters on the performance of the produced two-phase hydrocarbon systems for effective subsea fluid transportation. Thereafter, HTC and flow patterns for oil-water flows at downward inclinations of 4°, and 7° can be predicted by the models. The velocity distribution, pressure gradient, liquid holdup, and temperature variation at the flowline cross-sections are simulated and analyzed in detail. Consequently, the numerical model can be generally applied to compute the global properties of the fluid and other operating parameters that are beneficial in the management of two-phase oil-water transportation.

Identification Method of Gas-Liquid Two-phase Flow Regime Based on Image Multi-feature Fusion and Support Vector Machine

The knowledge of flow regime is very important for quantifying the pressure drop, the stability and safety of two-phase flow systems. Based on image multi-feature fusion and support vector machine, a new method to identify flow regime in two-phase flow was presented. Firstly, gas-liquid two-phase flow images including bub- bly flow, plug flow, slug flow, stratified flow, wavy flow, annular flow and mist flow were captured by digital high speed video systems in the horizontal tube. The image moment invariants and gray level co-occurrence matrix texture features were extracted using image processing techniques. To improve the performance of a multiple classifier system, the rough sets theory was used for reducing the inessential factors. Furthermore, the support vector machine was trained by using these eigenvectors to reduce the dimension as flow regime samples, and the flow regime intelligent identification was realized. The test results showed that image features which were reduced with the rough sets theory could excellently reflect the difference between seven typical flow regimes, and successful training the support vector machine could quickly and accurately identify seven typical flow regimes of gas-liquid two-phase flow in the horizontal tube. Image multi-feature fusion method provided a new way to identify the gas-liquid two-phase flow, and achieved higher identification ability than that of single characteristic. The overall identification accuracy was 100%, and an estimate of the image processing time was 8 ms for online flow regime identification.

Multi-scale Chaotic Analysis of the Characteristics of Gas-Liquid Two-phase Flow Patterns

Using the high-speed camera the time sequences of the classical flow patterns of horizontal gas-liquid pipe flow are recorded, from which the average gray-scale values of single-frame images are extracted. Thus obtained gray-scale time series is decomposed by the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method, the various scales of the signals are processed by Hurst exponent method, and then the dual-fractal characteristics are obtained. The scattered bubble and the bubble cluster theories are applied to the evolution analysis of two-phase flow patterns. At the same time the various signals are checked in the chaotic recursion chart by which the two typical characteristics (diagonal average length and Shannon entropy) are obtained. Resulting term of these properties, the dynamic characteristics of gas-liquid two-phase flow patterns are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that the evolution paths of gas-liquid two-phase flow patterns can be well characterized by the integrated analysis on the basis of the gray-scale time series of flowing images from EMD, Hurst exponents and Recurrence Plot (RP). In the middle frequency section (2nd, 3rd, 4th scales), three flow patterns decomposed by the EMD exhibit dual fractal characteristics which represent the dynamic features of bubble cluster, single bubble, slug bubble and scattered bubble. According to the change of diagonal average lengths and recursive Shannon entropy characteristic value, the structure deterministic of the slug flow is better than the other two patterns. After the decomposition by EMD the slug flow and the mist flow in the high frequency section have obvious peaks. Anyway, it is an effective way to understand and characterize the dynamic characteristics of two-phase flow patterns using the multi-scale non-linear analysis method based on image gray-scale fluctuation signals.

Experimental Research on Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Spiral Flow in Horizontal Pipe

In view of the importance of gas-liquid two-phase spiral flow and the few research reports at home and abroad,the gas-liquid two-phase spiral flow patterns have been researched in a horizontal pipe with different parameters investigated by means of observation and a high-speed camera.Since the appearance of spiral flow makes the distribution of twophase flow more complicated,the flow patterns appearing in the experiments were divided into the Spiral Wavy Stratified Flow(SWS),the Spiral Bubble Flow(SB),the Spiral Slug Flow(SS),the Spiral Linear Flow(SL),the Spiral Axial Flow(SA),and the Spiral Dispersed Flow(SD) by the observations and with reference to the predecessors' research achievements.A flow pattern map has been drawn up.The influence of velocity,vane angle and vane area on flow pattern conversion boundary and pressure drop has been studied,with a solid foundation laid for the future research work.

A two-phase type-curve method with multiscale fluid transport mechanisms in hydraulically fractured shale reservoirs

The quantitative understanding of hydraulic fracture(HF)properties guides accurate production forecasts and reserve estimation.Type curve is a powerful technique to characterize HF and reservoir properties from flowback and long-term production data.However,two-phase flow of water and hydrocarbon after an HF stimulation together with the complex transport mechanisms in shale nanopores exacerbate the nonlinearity of the transport equation,causing errors in type-curve analysis.Accordingly,we propose a new two-phase type-curve method to estimate HF properties,such as HF volume and permeability of fracture,through the analysis of flowback data of multi-fractured shale wells.The proposed type curve is based on a semianalytical solution that couples the two-phase flow from the matrix with the flow in HF by incorporating matrix influx,slippage effect,stress dependence,and the spatial variation of fluid properties in inorganic and organic pores.For the first time,multiple fluid transport mechanisms are considered into two-phase type-curve analysis for shale reservoirs.We analyze the flowback data from a multi-fractured horizontal well in a shale gas reservoir to verify the field application of the proposed method.The results show that the fracture properties calculated by the type-curve method are in good agreement with the long-time production data.