Pedestrian choice behavior analysis and simulation of vertical walking facilities in transfer station

Considering the interlayer height, luggage, the difference between queuing pedestrians, and walking speed, the pedestrian choice model of vertical walking facilities is established based on a support vector machine. This model is verified with the pedestrian flow data of Changchun light-rail transfer station and Beijing Xizhimen transfer station. Adding the pedestrian choice model of vertical walking facilities into the pedestrian simulation model which is based on cellular automata, the pedestrian choice behavior is simulated. In the simulation, the effects of the dynamic influence factors are analyzed. To reduce the conflicts between pedestrians in opposite directions, the layout of vertical walking facilities is improved. The simulations indicate that the improved layout of vertical walking facilities can improve the efficiency of pedestrians passing.

Research on Online Education Consumer Choice Behavior Path Based on Informatization

The application of information and communications technology(ICT)in the education industry is becoming more and more extensive,and online education realized through ICT is developing in full swing.The influence of ICT on online education consumer's choice behavior is the core issue of online education industry development research.The research on the interactive path and methods of information and online education consumer choice behavior is worth exploring and revealing.This study introduces the word-of-mouth factor as a new research variable under the framework of the Rational Choice Theory model(RCT)and the structural equation method to conduct empirical research and theoretical analysis to verify the validity of the hypothesis and model.The fifthGeneration mobile communication system(5 G)analyses the factors affecting online education consumer behavior choices based on the premise of ICT.Research on the path between ICT and choice behavior provides new ideas for online education consumer choice behavior research and ICT and content and provides a new scenario.This article is a cross-disciplinary research content in theory,and its innovation opens up a new path for the management of ICT research.The research results have innovative significance and value at both the theoretical and practical levels.

Passenger Perceptions and Choice Behavior of National,Low Cost and Foreign Carriers:A Case Study on Incheon International Airport

Recently,the LCCs(low cost carriers)using ICN(Incheon International Airport)as a hub have increased their international routes.In addition,foreign nationality airlines,including Middle Eastern carriers,have gradually increased their operations at ICN.This growth in carrier services has resulted in a more competitive market environment,and reasonable resource assignment has become an important issue for airport operators.Moreover,the airport will open a new terminal—T2(terminal 2)in early 2018,and carriers will need to adjust their operations reflecting the utilization of newly assigned facilities.Motivated by this change,we investigate the differentiation of airport service perception as well as airline choice behavior by passenger groups at ICN.This paper employs a MNL(multinomial logit)model as well as a SEM(structural equation model).The results indicate that airline gate allocation is a significantly important value for passengers in terms of airport service perception and choice behavior.Passenger perception and choice behavior differ according to the selected carrier.This study concludes that it is significantly important to consider the characteristics of passenger perception and choice behavior to improve airport operational efficiency,particularly with respect to carrier facility assignment.

农户经济视角下的我国农村土地流转影响因素——基于Multiple Choice Model的调查研究

利用农户土地流转问卷调查所得到的微观数据,采用统计分析、Probit multiple choicemodel方法,将农户经济行为中的保障性行为、投资行为、就业行为和产业选择行为引入土地流转的实证研究领域。研究结果显示:目前的土地流转多为暂时性流转,土地流转结构性供需矛盾严重;农户对土地的需求目的更多来自于保障性需要;农户的投资行为、就业行为、社会保障行为对土地流转有着重要影响。

Transportation Users’ Attitudes and Choices of Ride-Hailing Services in Two Cities with Different Attributes

The rapid technological developments in the 21st century created new opportunities for shared-use economy applications around the globe. Among other services, Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft emerged in the US as a transportation alternative that offered a higher level of availability, reliability, and convenience than traditional modes. However, TNCs deployment was also blamed for increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in large cities that embraced TNC services early on. Concerns about TNC adoption are also magnified by the current controversy in policy and legislation as to the regulation of TNCs. These new realizations create a need to examine the transportation users’ attitudes and perceptions regarding ride-hailing service, after nearly a decade of service in the Unites States market. In doing so, this paper compares and contrasts results from two recently completed studies aiming at creating links between socio-demographic factors and TNC use. The paper describes the methods employed to collect the data and presents findings from the analysis of 790 users’ responses in the Birmingham, AL and Miami Beach, FL markets. The study documents preferences and attitudes toward TNCs and highlights similarities and differences in travel behaviors related to local considerations. Moreover, the study uses the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) method to identify predictors for TNC use based on the users’ responses in Birmingham and Miami Beach case studies. Vehicle availability and waiting time emerged as the only significant predictors for the Birmingham region whereas vehicle ownership, vehicle use, residency, and prior use of transit and TNC where some of the predictors identified for the Miami Beach area. Understanding the characteristics of TNC users and the leading reasons that drive people towards the use of TNCs services is expected to help transportation agencies and TNC providers in their efforts to plan for transportation services that meet customer needs in the future.

Means of Choice for Interactive Management of Dynamic Geometry Problems Based on Instrumented Behaviour

Our paper presents a project that involves two research questions: does the choice of a related problem by the tutorial system allow the problem solving process which is blocked for the student to be restarted? What information about learning do related problems returned by the system provide us? We answer the first question according to the didactic engineering, whose mode of validation is internal and based on the confrontation between an a priori analysis and an a posteriori analysis that relies on data from experiments in schools. We consider the student as a subject whose adaptation processes are conditioned by the problem and the possible interactions with the computer environment, and also by his knowledge, usually implicit, of the institutional norms that condition his relationship with geometry. Choosing a set of good problems within the system is therefore an essential element of the learning model. Since the source of a problem depends on the student’s actions with the computer tool, it is necessary to wait and see what are the related to problems that are returned to him before being able to identify patterns and assess the learning. With the simultaneity of collecting and analysing interactions in each class, we answer the second question according to a grounded theory analysis. By approaching the problems posed by the system and the designs in play at learning blockages, our analysis links the characteristics of problems to the design components in order to theorize on the decisional, epistemological, representational, didactic and instrumental aspects of the subject-milieu system in interaction.

Tour Level Mode Choice Analysis of Madison Area in Wisconsin

This study is to investigate what factors and how they affect tours (trip chains) behavior. The key issue is the understanding and definition of tour and tour level mode. Also, these definitions should fit for the data. A semi-home based tour definition is stated, and a competing mode based tour mode is defined. Based on the definition, this study used Madison Area Data from National Household Survey to estimate a MNL structured model. It is found that travel distance could be a positive factor for car mode. Meanwhile, the number of trips is also a positive factor for choosing car.

考虑心理因素的旅游景区停车泊位预约选择行为研究

以自驾前往景区的游客为研究对象,基于计划行为理论,研究心理潜变量对其预约停车位意向的影响机理。在行为模型中引入感知风险变量,构建景区游客停车预约参与意向的结构方程模型,探究态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制及感知风险对游客预约停车行为意向的影响,利用问卷调查数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制和感知风险对游客参与景区停车位预约的意向影响显著,其中态度变量是关键因素且影响最大,感知风险对游客参与景区停车泊位预约的意向有显著负效应。研究结果可为景区停车泊位预约机制的制定及完善提供参考依据。

不确定环境下收费与信息对路径选择行为影响的实验研究

在不确定环境下考虑信息发布与拥挤收费两种措施,基于交通网络均衡,推导了两路径简单路网的最优收费模型,并推广至一般路网。基于两路径路网设计逐日路径选择行为实验,分析了两种措施对路径选择行为的影响。结果表明:完美信息与收费的实施均能减少流量波动,单独实施收费的效果最佳,但只有两种措施相结合时,路网流量趋于用户均衡的趋势最稳定;完美信息会增加路径切换行为,而收费可有效抑制大幅的路径切换;无收费时路径切换往往会造成出行成本增加,而收费时则相反;收费与信息结合时的出行时间比两种措施单独实施时小。

考虑低碳出行意愿的地铁公交接驳满意度分析

现如今,城市地铁建设规模日益增大,公交作为最常见的接驳方式,接驳满意度直接影响着居民的出行体验。文章通过问卷调查分析城市居民低碳出行的意愿和对地铁与公交接驳的满意度,在处理问卷数据后,对量表进行信效度检验,并对变量进行相关性分析。结果表明:绝大部分居民倾向于使用低排放的交通方式出行,当小汽车拥有数量越多,居民对当前低碳出行的接受意愿和环境满意度、地铁公交接驳的满意度、接驳的需求程度和优化意愿均有所降低。

基于前景理论的疫后旅游景区交通方式选择行为

基于有限理性的前景理论构建了旅客出行方式选择模型,通过对某景区旅游者的个人信息、出行基本情况以及出行意向进行了调查分析,揭示出其出行行为的特点。并且进一步运用前景理论研究旅游者的出行方式选择行为,在完全理性和有限理性的条件下分别计算了各异质类旅客对不同客运方式的模糊选择概率。在此基础上,建立了基于有限理性作用下旅客个体出行决策的模型,得出了各异质类旅客对不同客运方式的出行偏好。通过比较不同类型旅客的出行偏好,可分析出高收入和务工旅客更倾向于驾车出行,而学生游客更倾向于乘坐大巴。相关研究的结论对于旅游景区周边交通设施的规划和建设有一定的指导意义,可更好地服务和满足游客的出行需求。

电子围栏背景下共享单车停车行为影响特征分析

单车规范停放问题影响着共享单车系统的可持续发展,而设置电子围栏是促进单车停放规范化的重要手段。用户在电子围栏背景下规范停车行为的影响机理是制定停放管理政策的基础。基于用户停车选择行为问卷调查的结果,在二项Logit模型的基础上,结合调查数据特征建立固定效应选择模型、非对称选择模型等多个停车行为选择模型,探究各类特征对用户停车行为的影响。结果显示,用户的年龄、职业、收入等社会经济特征,用户在平常使用共享单车的时段、时长、频率及停放困难频率等共享单车出行特征,具体在停车场景下合规停放的绕行距离和违规停放的罚款金额等场景特征,均会显著影响用户合规停放的概率。模型结果可为电子围栏背景下的精细化管理提供用户行为定量分析基础。

马尾松不同部位挥发物对松墨天牛触角电位和行为反应的影响

【目的】探究马尾松健康植株不同位置挥发性物质,比较其不同部位的挥发物的种类差异及含量,分析松墨天牛成虫对健康马尾松各部位挥发物的触角电位反应和嗅觉反应,为开展松墨天牛的行为调控技术提供依据。【方法】采用静态顶空法和气相色谱-质谱联用技术分析了马尾松松针、1 cm枝条、5 cm枝条、20 cm树干、30 cm树干、松油脂6个部位的挥发物,并对松墨天牛雌雄成虫进行触角电位测定和行为反应观测。【结果】6个部位的挥发物提取物中,共检测出36种挥发性物质,各部位挥发物种类相近,相对含量差异较大,但其主要挥发物均为萜烯类物质,主要包括月桂烯、蒎烯、左旋-beta-蒎烯、莰烯等。在触角电位试验中,5 cm枝条挥发物提取物的触角电位值最高,松油脂挥发物提取物的触角电位值最高;在行为反应试验中,各部位挥发物对松墨天牛成虫均有一定的引诱作用,其中雌成虫对5 cm枝条挥发物提取物的趋向性最高,雄成虫对30 cm树干和松油脂挥发物提取物的趋向性最高。【结论】健康状态下,马尾松5 cm枝条及30 cm树干和松油脂中萜烯类挥发物制成的植物源引诱剂对松墨天牛两性成虫具有更好的引诱作用,这将为提高现有的诱捕剂效果提供参考,同时为松墨天牛虫害防治提供科学依据。

我国医保谈判药品落地问题的多重制度逻辑分析与政策建议

目的厘清国家医保谈判药品(简称“国谈药”)落地难的制度逻辑,促进国谈药在医疗机构落地使用。方法基于医疗机构所处的复杂制度环境,以多重制度逻辑理论构建医疗机构行为选择的分析框架,阐明国谈药落地过程中多重逻辑的互动与冲突,揭示国谈药落地难的机制,并提出应对措施。结果与结论国谈药落地存在国家逻辑、市场逻辑、社会逻辑及专业逻辑四者间不同程度的矛盾与耦合。在多重逻辑博弈中,市场逻辑与专业逻辑倾向规避风险、国家逻辑的“压力型体制”失效、社会逻辑的作用不具有强制性,共同造成了当前医疗机构以完成绩效考核为目标而配备使用国谈药的行动力不足的局面。建议各级政府部门及医疗机构应以政策松绑解除国谈药落地的隐形限制、以激励约束形成医疗机构压力与动力、以绿色采购通道及时回应临床需求、以社会力量构建多方参与国谈药落地监督等,从而改善国谈药的落地效果。

考虑预约响应式农村客运的内蒙古农牧民出行方式选择行为研究

为揭示考虑预约响应式农村客运的内蒙古农牧民出行方式选择行为及其影响因素,基于计划行为理论选取反映农牧民对预约响应式农村客运的态度潜变量,利用验证性因子分析预测态度潜变量得分;以个体属性、历史出行特征、出行方式属性、潜变量得分为解释变量,以农牧民的方式选择结果为反应变量,采用混合Logit模型构建内蒙古农牧民出行方式选择模型。模型分析发现:年龄在60岁以上、月收入3000元以上、日常出行次数在一天两次以上以及日常出行费用在20元以上的农牧民对预约响应式农村客运的使用意向强烈。行为意向、行为态度、主观规范以及感知易用性对方式选择行为影响显著,总体来说内蒙古农牧民对预约响应式农村客运持积极态度。研究成果为内蒙古地区发展预约响应式农村客运提供决策依据。

交通需求管理的通勤福利效应——以“禁摩限电”为例

在市民个体层面,“禁摩限电”政策的实施效果尚缺乏定量评估。本研究将交通模式特征和土地利用特征整合到离散选择模型中,模拟计算了“禁摩限电”对市民通勤福利(模式转变和成本变化)的影响。研究发现,实施“禁摩限电”后:(1)超过35%的摩托车和电动自行车使用者转向小汽车出行。小汽车分担率由不足30%上升到50%以上;(2)弱势群体的福利损失高于其他群体。单程通勤的时间平均增加6.9min以上,经济成本平均增加0.5元以上。(3)郊区镇居民的单程通勤时间和经济成本分别比其他区域市民多增加20%和0.2元。城市中心周边市民的换乘次数和候车时间增加明显。在我国实施公交优先发展战略,倡导绿色出行的背景下,本研究对于优化相关政策实施具有重要参考价值。

考虑心理潜变量的城市轨道站点接驳方式选择行为研究

本文以计划行为理论为基础框架,从出行者使用接驳工具的经验和对接驳工具属性评价两个维度分别引入出行习惯、感知态度两类潜变量,构建城市轨道站点接驳方式选择意向的多指标多因果模型,探究城市轨道站点接驳方式选择意向的影响因素及其作用路径,并在此基础上结合巢式Logit模型构建混合选择模型,探究出发端与到达端接驳方式选择行为的影响因素及其影响机理。结果表明:行为习惯潜变量直接影响接驳方式选择意向,感知态度对步行、共享单车接驳选择意向具有直接影响;显著影响接驳方式选择意向的可观测变量有学历、车辆保有情况、收入情况、接驳距离及出行人数;相较于慢行交通与道路公共交通,私人小汽车、电动车的有无对私人交通方式接驳选择行为影响较大;学历和职业等个人社会经济属性,出行目的和出行人数等出行属性,以及主观规范和行为意向等心理属性对出行者城市轨道出发端和到达端接驳方式选择行为均有显著影响;相较于到达端,出行费用、主观规范及行为态度对出发端接驳方式选择行为的影响更大,且出发端接驳方式选择对到达端的接驳决策行为具有影响。

基于CNL的轨道站点停车换乘选择行为分析

研究轨道站点停车换乘选择行为,分析出行者选择停车换乘出行的影响因素,可进一步改善设施运营状况与优化设施配置。选取南京市轨道站点作为研究对象,通过采集轨道站点停车换乘设施的使用情况,从个人属性、出行属性及停车换乘意向3个方面对设施使用者的停车换乘选择行为进行调查。分析停车换乘选择行为的影响因素并选取9项特征变量,考虑出行者换乘方式、时间、距离,选择换乘便捷度和换乘次数进一步分析出行者停车换乘选择行为。分别以换乘便捷度和换乘次数为上层巢构建交叉巢式Logit模型,对比分析不同情况下出行者选择停车换乘出行的影响因素差异,揭示特征变量对站点选择和出行方式选择的影响。研究结果表明:换乘便捷度和换乘次数为CNL模型上层巢的参数结果存在差异,以换乘便捷度为CNL模型上层巢的结果中,收入、出行目的和停车时间的参数绝对值较大,分别为0.467,0.359,0.454;以换乘次数为CNL模型上层巢的结果中,绝对值较大的则是收入、出行目的和出行次数,分别为0.550,0.579,0.642,对比发现收入和出行目的对出行者选择停车换乘的影响较大。由模型中下层选择枝对上层巢的隶属度估计值可以发现,换乘便捷度适度增加或换乘次数适度减少的情形下,“停车换乘(P&R)”出行方式的选择枝隶属度最高,分别为0.399,0.464,出行者会更倾向于选择停车换乘。以换乘便捷度和换乘次数为上层巢构建的CNL模型较巢式Logit模型和多项Logit模型精度提升约10%,在不同换乘便捷度和换乘次数情况下出行者对不同影响因素具有差异化敏感程度。

考虑时间价值的中欧班列多级定价与舱位控制

中欧班列运输需求高速增长,导致旺季时间偏长,运能供不应求。部分时间敏感型货物无法长时间等待,进而转向了其他运输方式。为满足时间敏感型货物的运输需求,本文考虑货物时间价值并提出多等级定价方案,以班列运营企业收益最大化为目标建立了考虑货主选择行为的动态舱位控制模型。由于多维状态空间模型难以获得精确解,采用值函数近似方法近似求解动态规划模型,利用最小二乘近似策略迭代算法对线性近似、分段线性近似两种形式的近似值函数进行参数标定。应用学习得到的参数进行仿真实验,对比两种值函数近似方法与基准运价下先到先得、多级定价下先到先得方案的收益性能和舱位预订情况。结果表明,在需求旺季供不应求的场景下,本文提出的基于多级定价的舱位控制策略能把有限的运能分配给最需要的客户,同时可以有效提升铁路企业的运输收益,其中分段线性近似方法对收益提升的效果更佳。