In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using th...In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using the law of large numbers (LLN). Initially, we calculate and estimate the probabilities of dengue extinction and major outbreak occurrence using multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. Subsequently, we apply the LLN to examine the convergence of the stochastic model towards the deterministic model. Finally, theoretical numerical simulations are conducted exploration to validate our findings. Under identical conditions, our numerical results demonstrate that dengue could vanish in the stochastic model while persisting in the deterministic model. The highlighting of the law of large numbers through numerical simulations indicates from what population size a deterministic model should be considered preferable.展开更多
One caveat to the dinosaur’s extinction is the conclusion that avian dinosaurs survived and became ancestors of birds. Their mobility enabled them to migrate great distances and find the nutrients needed to survive. ...One caveat to the dinosaur’s extinction is the conclusion that avian dinosaurs survived and became ancestors of birds. Their mobility enabled them to migrate great distances and find the nutrients needed to survive. Given this scenario, could the current observable migration of birds (the “dinosaurian offspring”) now be related? Migration is the regular seasonal movement undertaken by many species of birds, with the most common pattern, flying north in the Northern spring to breed in the temperate or Arctic summer and returning in the Northern autumn to wintering grounds in warmer regions of the south. The primary motivation for migration appears to be food. None of the major North-South migratory pathways fly over the Caribbean but three main fly ways, past to the west of the theorized K-T impact centre. Due to their ability to fly, the “avian Dinosaurs” adapted and survived very quickly in response to the disaster that marked the K-T boundary. It is an interesting speculation that the avian migration that we witness today is rooted in an event that occurred 66 million years ago! But it does explain why the migratory birds mostly fly from Polar summer to polar summer when they could just be as easily fly from Polar zone to the warmer equatorial region and back. In the recent article in Nature by Melanie During about identifying the late spring timing of the “Astro disaster”, it can be cited as consistent with my speculation. A late April early May Impact as suggested by During would have seen these migrations completely. The western migratory routes would have been found to be “luxurious” in vegetation in that first northern autumn after the “Astro-impact” while all eastern routes would have still been barren.展开更多
DEAR EDITOR,The key features of functional extinction include continuous reproductive failure,lack of new recruitment,and persistent population decline(Jarićet al.,2016;Roberts et al.,2017).However,the conclusion of f...DEAR EDITOR,The key features of functional extinction include continuous reproductive failure,lack of new recruitment,and persistent population decline(Jarićet al.,2016;Roberts et al.,2017).However,the conclusion of functional extinction for the Chinese pangolin(Manis pentadactyla)by the China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation(CBC-GDF)based on preliminary field information is unconvincing as they did not assess reproductive function or new individual recruitment of Chinese pangolin populations(Supplementary Materials).展开更多
Dust extinction law is crucial to recover the intrinsic energy distribution of celestial objects and infer the characteristics of interstellar dust.Based on the traditional pair method,an improved pair method is propo...Dust extinction law is crucial to recover the intrinsic energy distribution of celestial objects and infer the characteristics of interstellar dust.Based on the traditional pair method,an improved pair method is proposed to model the dust extinguished spectral energy distribution(SED)of an individual star.Instead of the mathematically parameterizing extinction curves,the extinction curves in this work are directly from the silicate-graphite dust model,so that the dust extinction law can be obtained and the dust properties can be analyzed simultaneously.The ATLAS9 stellar model atmosphere is adopted for the intrinsic SEDs in this work,while the silicate-graphite dust model with a dust size distribution of dn da~a^(-a)exp(-a a_(c)),0.005<a<5μmfor each component is adopted for the model extinction curves.One typical extinction tracer in the dense region(V410 Anon9)and one in the diffuse region(Cyg OB2#12)of the Milky Way are chosen to test the reliability and the practicability of the improved pair method in different stellar environments.The results are consistent with their interstellar environments and are in agreement with the previous observations and studies,which prove that the improved pair method is effective and applicable in different stellar environments.In addition to the reliable extinction results,the derived parameters in the dust model can be used to analyze the dust properties,which cannot be achieved by other methods with the mathematical extinction models.With the improved pair method,the stellar parameters can also be inferred and the extinction law beyond the wavelengths of observed data can be predicted based on the dust model as well.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to study the dynamic variation of extinction coefficient of corn population, so as to improve the accuracy of assessment on net primary productivity （NPP） or yield. [Method] Based on the data...[Objective] The aim was to study the dynamic variation of extinction coefficient of corn population, so as to improve the accuracy of assessment on net primary productivity （NPP） or yield. [Method] Based on the data of photosynthetic active radiation and leaf area index during corn growing season （from May to September） in 2006, observed in Jinzhou observation station of corn farmland ecosystem, China Meteorological Administration, the dynamic variation of extinction coefficient of corn population was analyzed. [Result] There was a great daily variation in the extinction coefficient of corn population during growing season, and the maximum value appeared from 7：00 to 9：00 and from 15：00 to 17：00, while the minimum could be found around 12：00, but the amplitude of variation decreased in tasseling stage. On a large time scale （5 d）, there was a parabolic relationship between extinction coefficient （K） and leaf area index （LAI）, with determination coefficient R2 of 0.960 7. The simulation equation of extinction coefficient, based on the sun elevation angle or leaf area index, had poor accuracy at various time during growing season, so a new dynamic model of extinction coefficient was established, namely K=λ（0.784 8-0.001 6θ）（0.154 8LAI2-0.558 6LAI＋0.654）. [Conclusion] The effect of sun elevation angle and leaf area index on extinction coefficient during corn growing season was considered in the new dynamic model of extinction coefficient, and its simulated result was superior to that of single-factor model.展开更多
文摘In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using the law of large numbers (LLN). Initially, we calculate and estimate the probabilities of dengue extinction and major outbreak occurrence using multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. Subsequently, we apply the LLN to examine the convergence of the stochastic model towards the deterministic model. Finally, theoretical numerical simulations are conducted exploration to validate our findings. Under identical conditions, our numerical results demonstrate that dengue could vanish in the stochastic model while persisting in the deterministic model. The highlighting of the law of large numbers through numerical simulations indicates from what population size a deterministic model should be considered preferable.
文摘One caveat to the dinosaur’s extinction is the conclusion that avian dinosaurs survived and became ancestors of birds. Their mobility enabled them to migrate great distances and find the nutrients needed to survive. Given this scenario, could the current observable migration of birds (the “dinosaurian offspring”) now be related? Migration is the regular seasonal movement undertaken by many species of birds, with the most common pattern, flying north in the Northern spring to breed in the temperate or Arctic summer and returning in the Northern autumn to wintering grounds in warmer regions of the south. The primary motivation for migration appears to be food. None of the major North-South migratory pathways fly over the Caribbean but three main fly ways, past to the west of the theorized K-T impact centre. Due to their ability to fly, the “avian Dinosaurs” adapted and survived very quickly in response to the disaster that marked the K-T boundary. It is an interesting speculation that the avian migration that we witness today is rooted in an event that occurred 66 million years ago! But it does explain why the migratory birds mostly fly from Polar summer to polar summer when they could just be as easily fly from Polar zone to the warmer equatorial region and back. In the recent article in Nature by Melanie During about identifying the late spring timing of the “Astro disaster”, it can be cited as consistent with my speculation. A late April early May Impact as suggested by During would have seen these migrations completely. The western migratory routes would have been found to be “luxurious” in vegetation in that first northern autumn after the “Astro-impact” while all eastern routes would have still been barren.
基金supported by the National Key Program of Research and Development,Ministry of Science and Technology(2022YFF1301500)National Nature Science Foundation of China(32070522,31572286)+1 种基金China State Forestry and Grassland Administration(2018-HS01)the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China(2019-6-2)。
文摘DEAR EDITOR,The key features of functional extinction include continuous reproductive failure,lack of new recruitment,and persistent population decline(Jarićet al.,2016;Roberts et al.,2017).However,the conclusion of functional extinction for the Chinese pangolin(Manis pentadactyla)by the China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation(CBC-GDF)based on preliminary field information is unconvincing as they did not assess reproductive function or new individual recruitment of Chinese pangolin populations(Supplementary Materials).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)through grant Nos.12133002,U2031209 and 12203025Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation through project ZR2022QA064the CSST Milky Way and Nearby Galaxies Survey on Dust and Extinction Project CMS-CSST2021-A09。
文摘Dust extinction law is crucial to recover the intrinsic energy distribution of celestial objects and infer the characteristics of interstellar dust.Based on the traditional pair method,an improved pair method is proposed to model the dust extinguished spectral energy distribution(SED)of an individual star.Instead of the mathematically parameterizing extinction curves,the extinction curves in this work are directly from the silicate-graphite dust model,so that the dust extinction law can be obtained and the dust properties can be analyzed simultaneously.The ATLAS9 stellar model atmosphere is adopted for the intrinsic SEDs in this work,while the silicate-graphite dust model with a dust size distribution of dn da~a^(-a)exp(-a a_(c)),0.005<a<5μmfor each component is adopted for the model extinction curves.One typical extinction tracer in the dense region(V410 Anon9)and one in the diffuse region(Cyg OB2#12)of the Milky Way are chosen to test the reliability and the practicability of the improved pair method in different stellar environments.The results are consistent with their interstellar environments and are in agreement with the previous observations and studies,which prove that the improved pair method is effective and applicable in different stellar environments.In addition to the reliable extinction results,the derived parameters in the dust model can be used to analyze the dust properties,which cannot be achieved by other methods with the mathematical extinction models.With the improved pair method,the stellar parameters can also be inferred and the extinction law beyond the wavelengths of observed data can be predicted based on the dust model as well.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(5117214451372153)+2 种基金Science Technology Foundation of shanghai(12410710300)Leading Academic Discipline Project of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission(J51503)the Program for Professor of Special Appointment(Eastern Scholar)at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learning
基金Supported by Major Project of Chinese National Programs for Fundamental Research and Development(2006CB400502)National Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar(40625015)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the dynamic variation of extinction coefficient of corn population, so as to improve the accuracy of assessment on net primary productivity （NPP） or yield. [Method] Based on the data of photosynthetic active radiation and leaf area index during corn growing season （from May to September） in 2006, observed in Jinzhou observation station of corn farmland ecosystem, China Meteorological Administration, the dynamic variation of extinction coefficient of corn population was analyzed. [Result] There was a great daily variation in the extinction coefficient of corn population during growing season, and the maximum value appeared from 7：00 to 9：00 and from 15：00 to 17：00, while the minimum could be found around 12：00, but the amplitude of variation decreased in tasseling stage. On a large time scale （5 d）, there was a parabolic relationship between extinction coefficient （K） and leaf area index （LAI）, with determination coefficient R2 of 0.960 7. The simulation equation of extinction coefficient, based on the sun elevation angle or leaf area index, had poor accuracy at various time during growing season, so a new dynamic model of extinction coefficient was established, namely K=λ（0.784 8-0.001 6θ）（0.154 8LAI2-0.558 6LAI＋0.654）. [Conclusion] The effect of sun elevation angle and leaf area index on extinction coefficient during corn growing season was considered in the new dynamic model of extinction coefficient, and its simulated result was superior to that of single-factor model.
