Measures and Strategic Conception of Japan to Deal with the Russia–Ukraine Crisis

After the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Japan wasted no time in advancing its national strategy and actively promoted shuttle diplomacy with the United States(U.S.), Europe, East Asia, and neighboring countries of Ukraine around sanctions against Russia based on strategic considerations and the goal of maximizing national interests. Japan regarded this conflict as an important opportunity for an international strategic game, in an attempt to move and overturn the postwar international order and reconstruct the new global order with the U.S., Europe, and Japan as the core countries dominating the military, science and technology, and economic spheres. In response to the crisis, Japan made a brief policy adjustment—from the initial hesitation to the imposition of active sanctions and pressure on Russia—to reverse the passive situation on the issue of the Four Northern Islands and weaken Russia’s strength. Japan also took the opportunity to promote the “China threat theory”;strengthen the quadrilateral mechanism between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia;provoke regional confrontation;and try to gain a new Cold War dividend.

The Formation of Russia-US-EU-China Multipolarity Relations under the Scenario of Ukraine Crisis in the Changing World

This paper is to analyze the changing formation of international security and economic system in the context of geopolitical expansion under the scenario of the Ukraine crisis. The author attempts to destruct the different interactions among Russia, EU, US, and China, founding that through the West economic sanctions the US are obstructing Russia＇s Eurasian policy and EU-Russian trade structures in many areas, especially in the energy sector. The US rebalancing policy might finish under the scenario of improved Russia-China relations because the US might improve their relations with China as well to implement their containment against Russia, whose geopolitical expansion toward Arctic Ocean, and with its developing the Russian Siberia, the Russian Far East Region as part of its global strategic deployment. Russia＇s global deployment is carried out through the integrated mechanism, such as, SCO, BRICS, and Eurasian Economic Union which will start to function in the January of 2015. China seems to be the biggest winner in this geopolitical struggle, because the new scenario of international events, such as Ukraine crisis and extremism of IS movement in Syria and Iraq have changed the target of NATO in the short-term period. The direction of intemational security is changing from the Cold War to anti-extremism-terrorism combat. Therefore, the new direction for Russia-US-EU-China reformulating their security relations will have the long-term influence on regional integration. Its seems to be that the information war and propaganda will be undergoing in the process of this geopolitical expansion gambling that can be seen in the new waves of the West economic sanctions against Russia and new threats from the international terrorism. In this paper, the author does not focus on the informational propaganda but tries to analyze the different characteristics of ambition and interactionamong Russia, EU, US, and China in the scenario of Ukraine crisis in the changing world.

The Transformation of German Security Policy in the Context of the Russia–Ukraine Crisis

Germany has recently taken multiple actions to adjust its security policy: for instance, promoting re-militarization, increasing foreign military intervention and overseas operations, and adopting measures to comprehensively safeguard security in the domains of energy, supply chain, and ideology. Externally, such moves result directly from the threat of a hot war emanating from the Russia–Ukraine crisis. Germany is severely deficient in hard power and the rules and order on which it previously relied are proving increasingly ineffective. The nation is also witnessing a sharply rising sense of insecurity as its inter-system competition with nonWestern countries intensifies. Internally, the present policy shift represents a continuation of German foreign policy transformations initiated during the Merkel era. This change is strongly driven by the new ruling coalition, especially the Green Party, and is staunchly supported by the public. In the future, Germany will probably further normalize its military, intensify its confrontations with non-Western countries, and diversify its means of comprehensively safeguarding security. However, security-related policy transformation processes will be time-consuming and Germany’s investments will not immediately pay off. Traditionally, Germany tends toward the pragmatic and balanced implementation of policies. Thus, it is less likely to pursue military hegemony than to increasingly assume security responsibilities within the Western alliance.

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine Crisis on Global Food Security

The Russia–Ukraine crisis has hit hard the grain production and exports of both countries,weakening their positions on global food markets.Moreover,the crisis has resulted in a shortage of fertilizer supply and a sharp increase in fertilizer prices.Consequently,global food production is declining,prices are hitting record highs,and market structures are shifting.Overall,global food insecurity is worsening,which,on top of several other factors,could become permanent as an aftermath of the Russia–Ukraine crisis.Therefore,food insecurity has become a topical issue in global governance.Spiking food prices and the ensuing political turbulence in vulnerable countries have altered the balance of strength between developed and developing countries,aggravating the existing imbalance between them.Furthermore,major food-producing countries are using food as a weapon to increase their influence in a fresh round of strategic competition,adding more uncertainties to the once-in-a-century changes shaping the world today.

RESEARCH ARTICLE Sensitivity of Crude Oil Price Change to Major Global Factors and to Russian-Ukraine War Crisis

To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode;using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents;and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents;a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian-Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.

GDI and GSI: China’s New Propositions for Global Governance

In the post-pandemic era,the global economic and security landscapes are fraught with complexities and uncertainties.Among them,four risk flashpoints merit attention:Certain countries are raising interest rates to subdue inflation,despite their already high levels of debt;the bulk commodities market is experiencing volatility,leading to global turbulence and change;trade protectionism is at the forefront of major-power rivalry in political and economic spheres;and regional security crises are compounding international tensions.Behind those flashpoints are contradictions that obstruct world peace and progress,including development imbalances,governance gaps,and structural tensions in global security.In the face of uncertainties,it is crucial for China to seize strategic opportunities and transform crises into favorable situations.China has launched the Global Development Initiative(GDI)and the Global Security Initiative(GSI)to contribute to global prosperity and security.The two initiatives demonstrate China’s commitment to addressing global deficits in peace,development,security,and governance.

乌克兰危机下欧盟力量格局变化趋向及其影响

The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis has accelerated the adjustment and power shifts of the European Union.Germany does not play the role model as it used to,its willingness and ability to make contributions have declined,and it has become a follower rather than a leader in the crisis response.The “Atlanticists” dominate the EU,and the “Europeanists” are weakened.Germany's all-round dependence on the United States has increased.France has lost traction on the EU,the German–French axis is absent,and the Central and Eastern European and Northern European countries are gaining momentum.Compared with other EU institutions and member states,the status and influence of the European Commission has been enhanced,leading the sanctions against Russia,participating more in the common security and defense policy,and contributing to the geo-politicization of EU economic policies.These changes will increase internal disputes within the EU,weaken the EU's international status and influence,and reduce the stability and predictability of the EU's China policy.

全球南方国家的“新不结盟”运动

Since the start of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, countries in the Global South have not simply blindly followed the West's request to isolate and sanction Russia. Instead, they have pursued a new nonalignment stance that refuses to take sides. Countries in the Global South responded negatively to, and sometimes even outright opposed, the West's isolation of Russia through multilateral means. Some countries have passively cooperated with Western sanctions against Russia,while others have actively resisted them. Moreover, the countries of the Global South continue to maintain or even strengthen friendly bilateral exchanges with Russia. Indeed, when the Ukraine crisis emerged,countries in the Global South were facing their own urgent survival and development challenges. They were dissatisfied with the current liberal order and the selfish and narrow diplomatic behavior of the West. They have also grown stronger and more mature throughout the process of the global order becoming increasingly multipolar, and they anticipate that the future international order will better serve their interests. The countries of the Global South are becoming a stabilizing force in a turbulent and changing world, and they are promoting the development of an international order defined by multipolarity.

乌克兰危机下俄罗斯加速“转向东方”及其前景

Following the beginning of the Ukraine crisis in 2022,Russia accelerated its so-called pivot to East,using diplomacy,trade,energy,infrastructure logistics,and identity,due to the rapid decoupling from Russia by the United States and the West across all directions.The timing,depth,and significance of this pivot to East are unparalleled,but its implementation continues to face much uncertainty.At present,this turn to East does not entail a permanent turn away from the West on the part of Russia,nor does it mean that Russia will only rely on the East,and still less does it imply any transformation of Russia’s national identity.On the contrary,as a center of sovereignty in the world and with its unique national civilization,Russia will continue to rely more on its own strength and shoulder its unique historical mission in the current period of change in the international order.

乌克兰危机的影响及启示

The escalation of the Ukraine crisis over the past year has exerted a significant and far-reaching impact on international politics,the economy,and the military.The international order is collapsing gradually in the post-Cold War era.International politics is becoming increasingly camp-oriented,the international economy is tending more and more toward antiglobalization,the global arms race is growing progressively fiercer,and the application of new military technologies is steering humankind to a new era of war.The United States has used Ukraine to fight a proxy war with Russia and has become the principal beneficiary of this crisis by utilizing this opportunity to strengthen its alliance system,stabilize itself,control Europe,and restrain Russia.Ukraine's capacity and willingness to fight have intensified with Western support,and neither side is willing to reconcile.A standoff between Russia and Ukraine would prolong the conflict,escalating the risk of nuclear war.However,the possibility of negotiations to contain the crisis cannot be ruled out.The emergency has reminded Europe of the value of strategic autonomy and has warned Asian countries to prohibit the United States from launching new proxy wars in the region.China's Global Security Initiative and Position Paper on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis offer innovative ideas that can help the concerned parties to withdraw from the crisis and can aid the international community in building lasting peace.

乌克兰危机下欧盟的发展前景

The Ukraine crisis,which broke out in early 2022,is the most significant geopolitical event to affect Europe since the end of the Cold War.It will have a great impact on the development prospects of the European Union(EU),including significantly altering the EU’s economic development and operation logics,with a more serious longterm impact than the previous debt crisis.The conflict has interrupted the EU strategic autonomy process and made its prospects even bleak.It has given new impetus to integration and,at the same time,has strengthened the negative factors impeding integration within the EU.The Ukraine crisis will further weaken the strength and international influence of the EU and accelerate the marginalization of the EU on the global geopolitical landscape;it may also kill its geopolitical aspiration of becoming a pole in the world’s balance of power.This is not conducive to a multipolar world order or the containment of hegemonism and power politics.However,these outcomes are not inevitable.If the lessons of the Ukraine crisis are properly reflected,and the EU is united,more open toward,and more inclusive with the world,it may have a brighter future.