Predicting Pressure Ulcer Risk with the Braden Q Scale in Chinese Pediatric Patients in ICU

Objective: The purpose of this study was to: ( 1 ) observe the value of the score of Braden Q scale in predicting pressure ulcers in pediatric Intensive Care Unit ( ICU) patients in China, ( 2) determine the critical cutoff point for classifying patient risk, and ( 3) describe the pressure ulcer incidence. Methods: A prospective cohort descriptive study with a convenience sample of 198 patients bed-ridden for at least 24 hours without pre-existing pressure ulcers enrolled from a pediatric intensive care unit ( PICU) . The Braden Q score and skin assessment were independently rated, and data collectors were blinded to the other measures. Patients were observed for up to 3 times per week for 2 weeks and once a week thereafter until PICU discharge. Results: Fourteen patients ( 7. 1%) developed pressure ulcers; 12 ( 85. 7%) were Stage I pres-sure ulcers, 2 ( 14. 3%) were Stage II, and there were no Stage III or IV pressure ulcers. Most pressure ulcers ( 64. 3%) were present at the first observation. The Braden Q Scale has an overall cumulative variance contribution rate of 69. 599%. Using Stage I+ pressure ulcer data obtained during the first observation, a Receiver Operator Characteristic ( ROC) curve for each possible score of the Braden Q Scale was constructed. The area under the curve ( AUC) was 0. 57, and the 95% confidence interval was 0. 50-0. 62. At a cutoff score of 19, the sensitivity was 0. 71, and the specificity was 0. 53. The AUC of each item of the Braden Q Scale was 0. 543-0. 612. Conclusions: PICU patients are susceptible to pressure ulcers. The value of the Braden Q Scale in the studied pediatric population was relatively poor, and it should be optimized before it is used in Chinese pediatric patients.

Multicenter case-control study of the risk factors for ulcerative colitis in China

AIM:To evaluate potential risk factors in the development of ulcerative colitis(UC) in China.METHODS:A total of 1308 patients with UC and 1308 age-matched and sex-matched controls were prospectively studied in China.The UC cases were collected from 17 hospitals in China from April 2007 to April 2010.Uniform questionnaires were designed to investigate risk factors including smoking,appendectomy,stress,socio-economic conditions,nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs(NSAIDs),oral contraceptives,diet,breastfeeding,infections and family sanitary conditions.Group comparisons by each factor were done using simple logistic regression analysis.Conditional logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis.RESULTS:By univariate analysis,the variables predictive of UC included feeling stress,light and heavy alcoholic drinking,spicy food,sugar consumption and infectious diarrhea,while heavy tea intake and tap water consumption were protective against UC.On multivariate analysis,the protective factor for UC was tap water consumption [odds ratios(OR) = 0.424,95%CI:0.302-0.594,P < 0.001];while the potential risk factors for UC were heavy sugar consumption(OR = 1.632,95%CI:1.156-2.305,P < 0.001),spicy food(light intake:OR = 3.329,95%CI:2.282-4.857,P < 0.001;heavy intake:OR = 3.979,95%CI:2.700-5.863,P < 0.001),and often feeling stress(OR = 1.981,95%CI:1.447-2.711,P < 0.001).Other factors,such as smoking habit,appendectomy,breastfeeding,a history of measles,rural or urban residence,education,oral contraceptives,and NSAID use have not been found to have a significant association with the development of UC in the present study.CONCLUSION:Our study showed tap water consumption was a protective factor for UC,while spicy food,heavy sugar consumption and often feeling stress were risk factors for UC in this Chinese population.

Predictors of rebleeding after initial hemostasis with epinephrine injection in high-risk ulcers

AIM: To identify the predictors of rebleeding after initial hemostasis with epinephrine injection (EI) in patients with high-risk ulcers. METHODS: Recent studies have revealed that endoscopic thermocoagulation, or clips alone or combined with EI are superior to EI alone to arrest ulcer bleeding. However, the reality is that EI monotherapy is still common in clinical practice. From October 2006 to April 2008, high-risk ulcer patients in whom hemorrhage was stopped after EI monotherapy were studied using clinical, laboratory and endoscopic variables. The patients were divided into 2 groups: sustained hemostasis and rebleeding. RESULTS: A total of 175 patients (144, sustainedhemostasis; 31, rebleeding) were enrolled. Univariate analysis revealed that older age (≥ 60 years), advanced American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) status (category Ⅲ , Ⅳ and Ⅴ ), shock, severe anemia (hemoglobin < 80 g/L), EI dose ≥ 12 mL and severe bleeding signs (SBS) including hematemesis or hematochezia were the factors which predicted rebleeding. However, only older age, severe anemia, high EI dose and SBS were independent predictors. Among 31 rebleeding patients, 10 (32.2%) underwent surgical hemostasis, 15 (48.4%) suffered from delayed hemostasis causing major complications and 13 (41.9%) died of these complications. CONCLUSION: Endoscopic EI monotherapy in patients with high-risk ulcers should be avoided. Initial hemostasis with thermocoagulation, clips or additional hemostasis after EI is mandatory for such patients to ensure better hemostatic status and to prevent subsequent rebleeding, surgery, morbidity and mortality.

Characteristic endoscopic findings and risk factors for cytomegalovirus-associated colitis in patients with active ulcerative colitis

AIM: To identify characteristic endoscopic findings and risk factors for cytomegalovirus(CMV)-associated colitis in patients with active ulcerative colitis(UC).METHODS: A total of 149 UC patients admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology, Nagoya University Hospital, from January 2004 to December 2013 with exacerbation of UC symptoms were enrolled in this retrospective study. All medical records, including colonoscopy results, were reviewed. CMV infection was determined by the presence of CMV antigen, CMV inclusion bodies in biopsy specimens, or positive specific immunohistochemical staining for CMV. Multivariate analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for CMV colitis.RESULTS: Multivariate analysis indicated independent associations with the extent of disease(pancolitis) anduse of > 400 mg corticosteroids for the previous 4 wk. In contrast, no association was seen with sex, age at UC diagnosis, immunomodulator use, or infliximab use. Punched-out ulceration was also significantly associated with CMV infection in patients with active UC(odds ratio = 12.672, 95%CI: 4.210-38.143).CONCLUSION: Identification of a total corticosteroid dose > 400 mg for 4 wk, extensive colitis and a specific endoscopic finding of punched-out ulcer might facilitate the more rapid diagnosis and timely initiation of antiviral therapy for CMV-associated colitis in patients with active UC.

Prevalence and Risk Factor of Diabetic Foot Ulcers in a Regional Hospital, Eastern Indonesia

Indonesia is one of the top ten diabetes mellittus (DM) countries. However as the main complication of DM, there was lack of studies related to diabetic foot ulcer (DFU). Thus, the aim of this study was to survey the prevalence of DFU risk factors and DFU among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. An epidemiological study was conducted at an outpatient endocrine clinic in a regional hospital, eastern Indonesia. All T2DM participants attending research setting that were ≥ 18 years were included. Demographic and foot care behavior were assessed using minimum data sheet (MDS). Meanwhile, presence of risk factors was evaluated by using 5.07/10 g Semmes-Weinsten Monofilament (SWM) for neuropathy and presence of angiopathy was evaluated with Ankle Brachial Index (ABI) by using a hand held Doppler (Bidop ES-100V3, Hadeco-Kawasaki, Japan) both dorsal and posterior tibialis foot. At the end of study, 249 T2DM participants were enrolled. The prevalence of DFU risk factors was 55.4% (95% CI: 53.7% - 57.0%), and prevalence of DFU was 12% (95% CI: 10.3% - 13.6%). Based on a logistic regression, predictors for DFU risk factors included age (OR: 1.04;95% CI: 1.005 - 1.074) and daily foot inspection (OR: 0.36;95% CI: 0.186 - 0.703). Meanwhile, the predictors for presence of DFU were insulin (OR: 9.37;95% CI: 2.240 - 39.182), shoes (OR: 0.05;95% CI: 0.007 - 0.294), spiritual belief that DM was a disease (OR: 0.04;95% CI: 0.004 - 0.326) and belief that DM was a temptation from God (OR: 0.13;95% CI: 0.027 - 0.598). In conclusion, we recommend to educate high risk patients to understand positive foot care behavior as essentially preventive strategies to prevent presence risk and DFU.

Application of Nursing Risk Management in Nursing of Severe Peptic Ulcer Bleeding

Objective: To assess and compare the clinical application value of nursing risk management in the diagnosis and treatment of severe peptic ulcer bleeding. Methods: A total of 70 patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding were selected as the research objects, randomly divided into observation group and control group, 35 cases for each. The nursing risk management and conventional nursing management were implemented for the two groups, respectively. The success rate of hemostasis, average length of stay, cure rate, complication rate, dyspnea rate, nursing dispute rate, SAS score, and SDS score were compared between the two groups. Patients’ satisfaction with nursing quality was also compared. Results: After the implementation of two different nursing management methods, all the above-mentioned metrics were better in the observation group than in the control group, and the differences were statistically significant (P < 0.01 or P < 0.05). Conclusion: The application of nursing risk management in the nursing intervention process of patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding can effectively reduce the probability of nursing risk events, increase the cure rate, shorten the patient’s hospital stay, but also improve the patients’ psychological state and increase the patient’s satisfaction with nursing quality, which is worth clinical promotion.

Nursing Effects of Medical Treatment Combination on Patients at High Risk of Developing Pressure Ulcers at Rural Homes

Objective:To explore the nursing effects of medical treatment combination on patients at high risk of developing pressure ulcers at rural homes.Methods:From January 2018 to December 2018,86 patients at high risk of developing pressure ulcers at rural homes who were in Wenjiang Hospital were randomly divided into a control group and an observed group.The control group received the routine publicity and education and visiting,while the observed group adopted the cooperative nursing model of medical treatment combination.Then compare the healing status and nursing satisfaction of the two groups.Results:Of the 43 patients with pressure ulcers in the observed group,18 had been in the second stage of pressure ulcers and 16 had been healed;14 had been in the third stage of pressure ulcers and 8 had been healed;11 had been in the fourth stage of pressure ulcers and 5 had been healed.The nursing satisfaction of the patients in the observed group was 95.35%.Conclusion:Conducting medical treatment combination on patients at high risk of developing pressure ulcers at rural homes can effectively improve the patients’and their families’awareness of pressure ulcer nursing,standardize their nursing behaviour,help recover the patients themselves and promote the patients’satisfaction.

手工提取的视觉特征与深度特征的融合模型用于消化性溃疡再出血风险分级

目的 提出一种基于电子内镜图像的多特征融合模型,结合深度学习与手工特征的优势,用于消化性溃疡再出血风险的分级。方法 根据溃疡的内镜表现,提取颜色特征以区分活动性出血(Forrest Ⅰ)与非出血溃疡(Forrest Ⅱ、Ⅲ),并利用边缘和纹理特征描述不同级别溃疡的形态与外观。通过融合深度学习网络提取的深度特征与手工提取的视觉特征,形成电子内镜图像的多特征表达,最终用于预测消化性溃疡的再出血风险。结果 在包含708例患者、3573张图像的Forrest分级数据集上,提出的多特征融合模型在消化性溃疡再出血风险六分级任务中取得了74.94%的准确率,优于进修医生59.9%的分级准确性(P<0.05)。在Ⅰb、Ⅱa和Ⅲ级溃疡的识别中,F1得分为90.16%、75.44%和77.13%,其中Ib级表现尤为突出。与首个进行溃疡再出血分级研究的模型相比,提出模型的F1得分提升了5.8%。在简化的3类风险分级任务中,模型在高风险、低风险和无需内镜治疗级别上的F1得分为93.74%、81.30%和73.59%。结论 本文提出的多特征融合模型有效融合卷积神经网络(CNN)提取的深度特征与手工提取的视觉特征,提升了消化性溃疡再出血风险分级的准确性,为临床提供了高效的诊断辅助工具。

儿童幽门螺杆菌感染性消化性溃疡相关危险因素分析

目的探讨分析儿童幽门螺杆菌感染性消化性溃疡的相关危险因素。方法选取2021年2月至2023年2月南阳市中心医院收治的73例消化性溃疡患儿作为研究对象,收集患儿性别、年龄、家族史、饮食结构、生活习惯、有无非甾体类抗炎药应用史、有无心理障碍、幽门螺杆菌感染情况等相关资料,根据是否感染幽门螺杆菌将其分为感染组和非感染组,分析消化性溃疡患儿存在幽门螺杆菌感染的相关危险因素。结果73例消化性溃疡患儿中51例(69.86%)感染幽门螺杆菌,设为感染组;22例(30.14%)未感染幽门螺杆菌,设为非感染组。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,性别为男性、年龄≥6岁、有家族史、经常吃外卖、偏爱酸辣、偏爱冷食、住校/小餐桌、有非甾体类抗炎药应用史、有心理障碍是消化性溃疡患儿存在幽门螺杆菌感染的独立危险因素(95%CI为1.155~1.771、1.027~2.539、1.660~224.735、1.028~11.010、1.114~2.499、1.015~5.162、2.864~145.463、1.289~15.651、1.024~1.569,P=0.001、0.038、0.018、0.045、0.012、0.046、0.003、0.018、0.029)。结论性别、年龄、有无家族史、是否经常吃外卖、是否偏爱酸辣、是否偏爱冷食、是否住校/小餐桌、有无非甾体类抗炎药应用史、有无心理障碍是儿童幽门螺杆菌感染性消化性溃疡的独立影响因素。

Epidemiology, demographic characteristics and prognostic predictors of ulcerative colitis

Ulcerative colitis(UC)is a chronic disease characterized by diffuse inflammation of the mucosa of the colon and rectum.The hallmark clinical symptom of UC is bloody diarrhea.The clinical course is marked by exacerbations and remissions,which may occur spontaneously or in response to treatment changes or intercurrent illnesses.UC is most commonly diagnosed in late adolescence or early adulthood,but it can occur at any age.The incidence of UC has increased worldwide over recent decades,especially in developing nations.In contrast,during this period,therapeutic advances have improved the life expectancy of patients,and there has been a decrease in the mortality rate over time.It is important to emphasize that there is considerable variability in the phenotypic presentation of UC.Within this context,certain clinical and demographic characteristics are useful in identifying patients who tend to have more severe evolution of the disease and a poor prognosis.In this group of patients,better clinical surveillance and more intensive therapy may change the natural course of the disease.The aim of this article was to review the epidemiology and demographic characteristics of UC and the factors that may be associated with its clinical prognosis.

Has the risk of colorectal cancer in inflammatory bowel disease decreased?

The association between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)and colorectal cancer(CRC)has been acknowledged for almost a century and is assumedly promoted by a chronic inflammation-driven carcinogenic process in the intestine in combination with a genetic predisposition.The magnitude of the risk of CRC in IBD remains a continuing subject of debate.The early,high risk estimates for CRC in IBD were most likely overestimated due to selected patient populations originating from tertiary referral centers with a disproportional high percentage of patients with severe disease.Later population-based studies calculating risk estimates from a broad spectrum of IBD patients have found the risk to be significantly lower.At present,there is evidence that IBD patients with longstanding and extensive disease with uncontrolled inflammation are those at increased risk.Additional,other recognized risk factors include early age at onset,family history of CRC,and concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis.A significant amount of effort is put into identifying potential preventive factors of CRC in IBD,including surveillance programs and chemopreventive agents but the individual effect of these remains uncertain.Interestingly,recent studies have reported a decline in risk of CRC over time.Surveillance programs and the new treatment strategies,particular biological treatment might be part of the reason for the observed decline in risk of CRC in IBD over time but future studies will have investigate this assumption.

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease have increased risk of autoimmune and inflammatory diseases

AIM To investigate whether immune mediated diseases(IMD) are more frequent in patients with inflammatory bowel disease(IBD).METHODS In this population based registry study,a total of 47325 patients with IBD were alive and registered in the Danish National Patient Registry on December 16,2013. Controls were randomly selected from the Danish Civil Registration System(CRS) and matched for sex,age,and municipality. We used ICD 10 codes to identify the diagnoses of the included patients. The IBD population was divided into three subgroups: Ulcerative colitis(UC),Crohn's disease(CD) and Both the latter referring to those registered with both diagnoses. Subsequently,odds-ratios(OR) and 95%CI were obtained separately for each group and their respective controls. The use of Bonferoni post-test correction adjusted the significance level to P < 0.00125. P-values were estimated using Fisher's exact test.RESULTS There were significantly more women than men in the registry,and a greater percentage of comorbidity in the IBD groups(P < 0.05). Twenty different IMDs were all significantly more frequent in the IBD group. Sixteen were associated with UC versus twelve with CD. In both UC and CD ORs were significantly increased(P < 0.00125) for primary sclerosing cholangitis(PSC),celiac disease,type 1 diabetes(T1D),sarcoidosis,asthma,iridocyclitis,psoriasis,pyoderma gangrenosum,rheumatoid arthritis,and ankylosing spondylitis. Restricted to UC(P < 0.00125) were autoimmune hepatitis,primary biliary cholangitis,Grave's disease,polymyalgia rheumatica,temporal arteritis,and atrophic gastritis. Restricted to CD(P < 0.00125) were psoriatic arthritis and episcleritis. Restricted to women with UC(P < 0.00125) were atrophic gastritis,rheumatoid arthritis,temporal arteritis,and polymyalgia rheumatica. Restricted to women with CD were episcleritis,rheumatoid arthritis,and psoriatic arthritis. The only disease restricted to men(P < 0.00125) was sarcoidosis. CONCLUSION Immune mediated diseases were significantly more frequent in patients with IBD. Our results strengthen the hypothesis that some IMDs and IBD may have overlapping pathogenic pathways.

Colorectal cancer in inflammatory bowel disease:What is the real magnitude of the risk?

The association between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) and colorectal cancer(CRC) has been recognised since 1925 and still accounts for 10%-15% of deaths in IBD.IBD-associated CRC(IBD-CRC) affects patients at a younger age than sporadic CRC.The prognosis for sporadic CRC and IBD-CRC is similar,with a 5-year survival of approximately 50%.Identifying at risk patients and implementing appropriate surveillance for these patients is central to managing the CRC risk in IBD.The increased risk of colorectal cancer in association with IBD is thought to be due to genetic and acquired factors.The link between inflammation and cancer is well recognised but the molecular biology,immune pathobiology and genetics of IBD-CRC are areas of much ongoing research.This review examines the literature relating to IBD-CRC,focusing on the incidence of IBD-CRC and examining potential risk factors including age at diagnosis,gender,duration and extent of colitis,severity of inflammation,family history of sporadic CRC and co-existent primary sclerosing cholangitis(PSC).Confirmed risk factors for IBD-CRC are duration,severity and extent of colitis,the presence of co-existent PSC and a family history of CRC.There is insufficient evidence currently to support an increased frequency of surveillance for patients diagnosed with IBD at a younger age.Evidence-based guidelines advise surveillance colonoscopy for patients with colitis 8 to 10 years after diagnosis,with the interval for further surveillance guided by risk factors(extent of disease,family history of CRC,post-inflammatory polyps,concomitant PSC,personal history of colonic dysplasia,colonic strictures).There is a move away from using random colonic biopsies towards targeted biopsies aimed at abnormal areas identified by newer colonoscopic techniques(narrow band imaging,chromoendoscopy,confocal microendoscopy).

Inflammatory bowel disease:Epidemiology,pathology and risk factors for hypercoagulability

Hypercoagulability observed in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) may lead to thromboembolic events (TE), which affect the venous and arterial systems alike and are an important factor in patients&#x02019; morbidity and mortality. The risk of TE in IBD patients has been demonstrated to be approximately three-fold higher as compared to the general population. The pathogenesis of thrombosis in IBD patients is multifactorial and not fully explained. The most commonly listed factors include genetic and immune abnormalities, disequilibrium between procoagulant and anticoagulant factors, although recently, the role of endothelial damage as an IBD-triggering factor is underlined. Several studies report that the levels of some coagulation enzymes, including fibrinogen, factors V, VII, VIII, active factor XI, tissue factor, prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 and the thrombin-antithrombin complex, are altered in IBD patients. It has been demonstrated that there is a significant decrease of tissue plasminogen activator level, a marked increase of plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 and thrombin-activable fibrinolysis inhibitor, a significantly lower level of antithrombin III and tissue factor pathway inhibitor. IBD patients have been also observed to produce an increased amount of various anticoagulant antibodies. Hyperhomocysteinemia, which is a potential risk factor for TE was also observed in some IBD patients. Further studies are necessary to assess the role of coagulation abnormalities in IBD etiology and to determine indications for thromboprophylactic treatment in patients at high risk of developing TE.

Association of Helicobacter pylori babA2 with peptic ulcer disease and gastric cancer

AIM: To investigate the association between babA2 gene and peptic ulcer disease (PUD) and gastric cancer (GC) in Helicobacter pylori -infected populations. METHODS: We evaluated the relationship between babA2 and clinical outcomes (PUD and GC) using a meta-analysis. A literature search was performed using the PubMed and Web of Science databases for relevant case-control studies that met the defined inclusion criteria. The ORs and 95%CIs were calculated to estimate the association between babA2 genotype and clinical outcomes. A fixed-effect or random-effect model was performed depending on the absence or presence of significant heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 25 articles with 38 studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this metaanalysis. The results showed that the babA2 genotype was significantly associated with an increased risk of PUD (OR = 2.069, 95%CI: 1.530-2.794, P < 0.001) and especially in the subgroup of duodenal ulcer (OR = 1.588, 95%CI: 1.141-2.209, P = 0.006). Moreover, a significant association between babA2 gene and PUD and duodenal ulcer (OR = 2.739, 95%CI: 1.860-4.032, P < 0.001; OR = 2.239, 95%CI: 1.468-3.415, P < 0.001, respectively) was observed in western countries but not in Asian countries. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that the presence of babA2 may be associated with increased risks for PUD, especially duodenal ulcer, in western countries.

Risk of cardiovascular disease in inflammatory bowel disease

Abundant scientific evidence supporting an association between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) and venous thromboembolic events, caused by an IBD related hypercoagulability, is acknowledged and thromboprophylactic treatment strategies are now implemented in the management of IBD patients. In contrary, the risk of arterial thromboembolic disease, as ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular events, and mesenteric ischemia in patients with IBD remains uncertain and the magnitude of a potentially increased risk is continuously debated, with ambiguous risk estimates among studies. The evident role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis forms the basis of a biological plausible link; the chronic systemic inflammation in IBD patients increases the risk of atherosclerosis and thereby the risk of thrombotic events. Further, studies have shown that the burden of traditional risk factors for atherosclerosis, such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia is lower in IBD populations, thus further strengthen the role of non-traditional risk factors, as chronic inflammation in the linking of the two disease entities. Likewise, mortality from cardiovascular disease in IBD remains questioned. The aim of the current review is to give an up-date on the existing evidence of the possible association between IBD and cardiovascular disease and to discuss traditional and non-traditional risk factors.

Epidemiological studies of migration and environmental risk factors in the inflammatory bowel diseases

Inflammatory bowel diseases(IBD)are idiopathic chronic diseases of the gastrointestinal tract well known to be associated with both genetic and environmental risk factors.Permissive genotypes may manifest into clinical phenotypes under certain environmental influences and these may be best studied from migratory studies.Exploring differences between first and second generation migrants may further highlight the contribution of environmental factors towards the development of IBD.There are few opportunities that have been offered so far.We aim to review the available migration studies on IBD,evaluate the known environmental factors associated with IBD,and explore modern migration patterns to identify new opportunities and candidate migrant groups in IBD migration research.

糖尿病足患者溃疡愈合风险的列线图预测模型

目的探讨预测糖尿病足溃疡(DFU)患者溃疡愈合风险的列线图模型。方法收集2021年1―12月于新疆医科大学第一附属医院就诊的200例DFU患者的临床资料,依据DFU是否愈合将其分为愈合组(n=57)和未愈合组(n=143)。收集患者的年龄、性别、体重指数(BMI)、糖化血红蛋白、知-信-行(KAP)模式量表评分以及患者血液中微小RNA(miRNA)-15b-5p的相对含量,采用Logistic回归模型对临床特征数据进行单因素及多因素分析,向后法筛选出相关预测因子并建立预测模型,使用增强Bootstrap验证法对模型内部进行验证,使用一致性指数(C-index)、列线图、校准图、受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线及校准曲线、决策曲线分析(DCA)进行评估。结果通过二元Logistic回归分析及向后法筛选变量,从8个总变量中确定了3个预测因子,即年龄、miRNA-15b-5p相对含量、K评分,其构建的预测模型呈现出中等预测能力,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.923。结论年龄、K评分及miRNA-15b-5p相对含量均为DFU患者溃疡未愈合相关的预测因子,基于这些预测因子建立的预测模型具有优秀的综合性能,可从多个层面预测DFU患者溃疡未愈合的发生风险,为DFU患者溃疡愈合提供了个体化治疗依据。

俯卧位通气相关面部压力性损伤危险因素分析及最佳建模方法选择

背景面部压力性损伤是俯卧位通气患者常见并发症,创面局部暴露可增加全身感染风险,影响俯卧位通气治疗效果,甚至造成局部组织永久性功能损害。探讨其危险因素并构建预测模型对于预防俯卧位通气相关面部压力性损伤具有重要临床意义。目的探讨俯卧位通气相关面部压力性损伤的危险因素及其最佳建模方法。方法选择2020年6月—2023年3月入住新疆医科大学第一附属医院重症医学科的159例接受俯卧位通气的患者为研究对象,根据是否发生面部压力性损伤分为压力性损伤组(n=22)和非压力性损伤组(n=137),收集患者的一般信息、疾病诊断、治疗措施、实验室检查。分别使用逐步Logistic回归模型、全变量Logistic回归模型及Lasso-Logistic回归模型筛选面部压力性损伤危险因素并建立预测模型,应用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型区分度;应用赤池信息准则(AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)及校准曲线评价模型校准度;应用决策曲线评价模型临床应用价值。通过比较三种Logistic回归模型预测效能和临床应用差异选择最佳建模方法。结果逐步Logistic回归模型结果显示,面部压力性损伤的影响因素为年龄(OR=39.041)、糖尿病(OR=7.256)和单次俯卧位通气时间(OR=6.705);全变量Logistic回归模型结果显示,面部压力性损伤的影响因素为年龄(OR=26.882)、糖尿病(OR=1.770)、ICU住院时间(OR=2.610)和单次俯卧位通气时间(OR=5.340);Lasso-Logistic回归结果显示,面部压力性损伤的影响因素为年龄(OR=38.256)、糖尿病(OR=1.094)、单次俯卧位通气时间(OR=5.738)和Richmond躁动镇静评分(OR=1.179)。Lasso-Logistic回归模型预测俯卧位通气相关面部压力性损伤的AUC、灵敏度和特异度分别为0.855、0.959和0.750,优于逐步和全变量Logistic回归模型;AIC和BIC分别为44.634和55.745,低于逐步和全变量Logistic回归模型;校准曲线显示Lasso-Logistic回归模型预测概率与实际概率拟合效果最佳。决策曲线显示Lasso-Logistic回归模型获得临床收益对应风险阈值为0.01~0.98,优于逐步和全变量Logistic回归模型。结论年龄、糖尿病、单次俯卧位通气时长和Richmond躁动镇静评分是俯卧位通气相关面部压力性损伤的危险因素,Lasso-Logistic回归模型预测效能和临床应用价值优于逐步Logistic回归模型和全变量Logistic回归模型,是最佳建模方法。

糖尿病足发病风险预测模型的系统评价

背景糖尿病足是糖尿病患者常见并发症,多数患者病情重,疾病进展快。性能良好的糖尿病足发病风险预测模型可以帮助医务人员识别高危患者,尽早采取干预措施。目的系统评价糖尿病足发病风险预测模型,为模型的构建和优化提供参考。方法检索PubMed、Cochrane Library、Embase、Web of Science、中国知网及万方数据知识服务平台发表的关于糖尿病足风险预测模型的相关文献,检索期限为建库至2023-05-15。由研究者独立筛选文献,并提取文献数据,使用预测模型研究的偏倚风险评估工具(PROBAST)对模型进行质量评价。使用Stata 17.0软件对模型中预测因子进行Meta分析。结果共纳入13篇文献,包含13个模型,其中12个模型的曲线下面积(AUC)>0.7。7个模型进行了模型校准,8个模型进行了验证。PROBAST评估结果显示,纳入的13篇文献中有1篇为低偏倚风险,其余12篇均为高偏倚风险;模型适用性方面,1篇为低适用性。Meta分析结果显示,年龄(OR=1.13,95%CI=1.04~1.24)、糖化血红蛋白(OR=1.56,95%CI=1.26~1.94)、足溃疡史(OR=5.93,95%CI=2.85~12.37)、足截肢史(OR=7.79,95%CI=2.74~22.17)、单丝试验敏感性减弱(OR=1.59,95%CI=1.42~1.78)、足真菌感染(OR=6.14,95%CI=1.71~22.04)、肾病(OR=2.09,95%CI=1.65~2.65)是糖尿病足发病风险的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论糖尿病足风险预测模型仍存在不足,未来风险预测模型的建立可重点关注年龄、糖化血红蛋白水平、足溃疡史、足截肢史、单丝试验敏感性、足真菌感染、肾病等预测因子。