Spatial Impact of High-speed Railway on the Urban Scale:An Empirical Analysis from Northeast China

The emergence of rapid transit,primarily represented by high-speed railway(HSR),while reshaping the regional traffic patterns,leads to the reconstruction and redistribution of population and industry.This leads to either shrinkage or expansion of urban scale.However,research on the influence mechanisms of the urban scale has mostly concentrated on historical,economic and social factors.The influence of traffic factors is rarely mentioned in current research.Therefore,this study examines Northeast China,where the change in urban scale is most significant,to discuss the spatial impact of high-speed railway on the urban scale.This is of great significance in terms of enriching current understanding of the factors affecting the urban scale.The results included the following:1)The high-speed railway produced considerable space-time convergence effects,however,simultaneously aggravated the imbalance in traffic development in Northeast China.The increase in accessibility presents attenuation characteristics from the high-speed railway.Additionally,the high-speed railway has changed the mode of cooperation between cities in the provinces,inter-regional and inter-provincial cooperation models gradually become popular.2)The change rate of accessibility and the urban scale present significant spatial coupling phenomena,with the change rate of the Harbin-Dalian trunk lines and its surroundings being more significant.3)There are predominantly four modes of the influence of high-speed railway on the urban scale,which make difference city present expansion or shrinkage.

Modeling urban scale human mobility through big data analysis and machinelearning

In the United States,the buildings sector consumes about 76%of electricity use and 40% of all primary energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions.Occupant behavior has drawn increasing research interests due to its impacts on the building energy consumption.However,occupant behavior study at urban scale remains a challenge,and very limited studies have been conducted.As an effort to couple big data analysis with human mobility modeling,this study has explored urban scale human mobility utilizing three months Global Positioning System(GPS)data of 93,o00 users at Phoenix Metropolitan Area.This research extracted stay points from raw data,and identified users'home,work,and other locations by Density-Based Spatial Clustering algorithm.Then,daily mobility patterns were constructed using different types of locations.We propose a novel approach to predict urban scale daily human mobility patterns with 12-hour prediction horizon,using Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network model.Results shows the developed models achieved around 85%average accuracy and about 86%mean precision.The developed models can be further applied to analyze urban scale occupant behavior,building energy demand and flexibility,and contributed to urban planning.

The Multi-Scale Numerical Modeling System for Research on the Relationship between Urban Planning and Meteorological Environment

Considering the urban characteristics, a customized multi-scale numerical modeling system is established to simulate the urban meteorological environment. The system mainly involves three spatial scales: the urban scale, urban sub-domain scale, and single to few buildings scale. In it, different underlying surface types are employed, the building drag factor is used to replace its roughness in the influence on the urban wind field, the effects of building distribution, azimuth and screening of shortwave radiation are added, and the influence of anthropogenic heating is also taken into account. All the numerical tests indicate that the simulated results are reasonably in agreement with the observational data, so the system can be used to simulate the urban meteorological environment. Making use of it, the characteristics of the meteorological environment from the urban to urban sub-domain scales, even the among-buildings scale, can be recognized. As long as the urban planning scheme is given, the corresponding simulated results can be obtained so as to meet the need of optimizing urban planning.

An Application of the RAMS/FLUENT System on the Multi-Scale Numerical Simulation of the Urban Surface Layer—A Preliminary Study

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System （RAMS） and the computational fluid dynamics （CFD） codes known as FLUENT are combinatorially applied in a multi-scale numerical simulation of the urban surface layer （USL）. RAMS and FLUENT are combined as a multi-scale numerical modeling system, in which the RAMS simulated data are delivered to the computational model for FLUENT simulation in an offline way. Numerical simulations are performed to present and preliminarily validate the capability of the multi-scale modeling system, and the results show that the modeling system can reasonably provide information on the meteorological elements in an urban area from the urban scale to the city-block scale, especially the details of the turbulent flows within the USL.

Study of Urban and Rural Construction Land Change Based on Small Scale in Dafang

This paper is to examine the urban and rural construction land data of Dafang between basic year and final year based on country scale and spatial econometrics,and analyze its spatial pattern and change feature. According to the results,the construction lands in all the villages of Dafang County showed strong spatial autocorrelation and significant spatial cluster. After the analysis of local Moran's I,the construction lands in 381 villages of 36 counties presented strong activity. The original small-scale villages were gradually enlarging,which will not only gradually benefit local development,but also be in accordance with the strategy of " one city,one district,eight parks".

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Urban Growth in Island Region from a Multi-scale Perspective: a Case Study of Zhoushan Island,China

The intensified conflict between island urbanization and lagging supervision deserves special attention worldwide.Zhoushan Island has been an outstanding center of marine economic development in China but also one of the areas most threatened by recent human activities.To cope with this challenge,the development of a retrospective understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of island urban growth is a key prerequisite.Detailed,multi-scales,long-term studies on island urban expansion are relatively rare.Remote sensing data,landscape metrics,and spatial statistics were used to characterize the urban landscape changes during the years from 1980 to 2013.Then,the potential determinants of island urban expansion were analyzed by integrating socioeconomic drivers,population factors,topographic variables,and policy guidance.The results indicate that Zhoushan Island has experienced a considerable urban expansion with an evident acceleration during the last period.Landscape changes in response to urban expansion varied with time,region,and scale.A general understanding of landscape metrics failed to reveal accurate dynamics for the urban landscape at a local level.At a block size of1 km,the urban landscape was more compact around the island urban center and the new developing zone,in contrast to the extensive and scattered pattern present across the entire region.Urban land primarily expanded from the urban center to the coastal regions due to topographic constraints and support from policy and economic benefits.The potential impact of the population factor decreased with urban growth,a finding that differs from several previous studies.The island urban dynamics observed in this study involved characteristics and differences that will guide future planning decisions and will provide a scientific case for urban development and sustainability with respect to islands and coastal regions in China.

县域教育的兜底功能:社会基础与实现路径

县域教育深嵌在县域社会之中,既要承担一般化的教育功能,还要回应县域社会独特的教育需求。由于县域社会主要是乡村社会,当前乡村社会从整体走向碎片、农民家庭从完整走向分割、隔代教育的社会功能不齐全、教育城镇化加剧乡村学校衰败等社会变迁,使得县域教育中家庭主体、社会主体缺位,导致一些重要的教育功能无法实现,使县乡的孩子们的权利受到侵害,给其成长带来不良影响。为此,县乡学校要对县乡孩子们的教育进行权利和责任兜底。要实现教育兜底功能,县域教育就要集中力量办好乡校、县中及县域职业学校要向多中心教育目标转型,以确保县乡的孩子们有平等的机会和权利通过县域教育走出县乡,成为有知识、懂规范、人格健全、适应社会的人。

城市创新创业活力与新兴产业核心技术:空间极化、规模门槛与中介效应

城市新企业、新资本和新发明涌现是孕育新兴产业核心技术的活力源泉,对加快形成新质生产力具有重要意义。利用中国城市面板数据考察创新创业活力对新兴产业核心技术的影响及作用机制。研究发现:(1)城市创新创业活力显著促进新兴产业核心技术数量提升,在考虑一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立。(2)创新创业活力对新兴产业核心技术活动的影响存在“边际递增”的城市规模门槛特征,而对邻近城市产生显著的抑制作用,存在“马太效应”和“虹吸效应”。(3)城市创新创业活力对新兴产业核心技术活动的影响存在区域和梯度异质性,不同地理位置和文化区的城市存在显著差异,而资源型城市、智慧城市和创新型城市的分组回归体现了梯度性特征。(4)创新创业活力通过提升城市多样性,特别是专业化部门的多样性程度,促进新兴产业核心技术数量增长。

粮食主产区的新型城镇化与粮食安全——基于土地规模化经营中介效应检验

在新时代发展背景下,新型城镇化成为粮食主产区城乡二元结构变革和农业生产方式转型的关键。论文基于2007—2021年我国13个粮食主产区的省级面板数据,从产业链视角利用熵值法测度粮食安全水平,基于新型城镇化内涵构建包含人口、经济、社会、空间的多维度指标体系并测度新型城镇化水平,探究新型城镇化对粮食安全的影响,并以土地规模化经营为中介变量,分析新型城镇化及其各维度影响粮食安全的作用机制。结果表明:1)粮食主产区的新型城镇化对粮食安全有显著的促进作用,并且土地规模化经营在新型城镇化对粮食安全的作用过程中存在中介效应;2)分维度异质性分析表明,人口城镇化与空间城镇化对粮食安全产生显著的正向影响,且土地规模化经营在其中发挥部分或完全的中介效应。为此,提出积极推进新型城镇化、鼓励土地规模化经营并从人口、经济、社会、空间城镇化多个维度因地制宜调整粮食发展战略是粮食主产区发展的长远之策。

2023年世界城市轨道交通运营统计与分析综述

参考国际上较为通用的统计标准,将城市轨道交通分为地铁、轻轨和有轨电车三大类,对世界城轨交通运营现状进行统计。分析表明:截至2023年底,全球有79个国家和地区的563座城市开通了城市轨道交通系统,总里程超过43400.40 km,其中地铁、轻轨、有轨电车分别占50.07%、10.69%和39.24%;中国(含港澳台)累计有66座城市开通运营轨道交通,运营里程达11900.29 km,其中中国内地运营里程11232.65 km。2022年,全球59个国家的183座城市地铁累计运送乘客586.52亿人次,平均负荷强度0.81万人次/(km·d),其中中国(含港澳台)地铁年客流量为212.51亿人次。我国城市轨道交通持续稳步发展,线网规模和客流规模继续居全球第一。统计国务院52号文件发布后的中国轨道交通的线网规模数据,预测低运量城市轨道交通系统将在中国内地有较好的发展前景,特别是中西部地区,以促进城市绿色、可持续发展。同时,根据疫情前后全球主要国家(地区)和城市的客流数据,预计中国内地客流量将在2024—2025年恢复至疫情前水平。

人本视角下建成环境审计综述——基于审计工具和方法的比较研究

建成环境审计作为一种以问题为导向的环境数据收集与评价方法,在西方国家微观尺度城市环境监测中已得到广泛应用,开发了诸多成熟的审计工具。在国内高质量发展背景下,建成环境审计已展现出作为精细化治理工具的重要潜力。介绍了建成环境审计的核心构建过程及适用场景,系统归纳三类建成环境审计工具并作比较分析,评估了当前建成环境审计的模式及方法以及主要审计方法的优缺点。针对审计结果的有效性问题,从指标体系构建、方法选择及单元划分等三个方面展开讨论,旨在为国内开展审计工作提供经验和建议。此外,为促进城市建设改造的可持续发展,还强调了建成环境审计在城市更新与基础设施建设项目绩效研究中的应用前景,不仅为国内城市规划和管理提供了新视角和工具,对于推动城市高质量发展也具有重要的理论和实践价值。

基础设施分形对超大城市规模边界的影响

基础设施分形是超大城市规模边界的重要影响因素。通过构建基于基础设施分形理论的城市发展模型分析发现,基础设施分形从人口异速增长、社会系统熵增和社会网络结构改变等方面,对超大城市规模边界产生重要影响。随着现代科技的发展,新型基础设施正替代传统基础设施,成为决定城市规模边界的核心要素。当前,应顺应科技革命趋势,加速推进基础设施优化升级,实施全周期、数字化治理,构建新型基础设施体系,重塑超大城市规模边界。

利用城市标度律分析广西城市要素与人口规模发展

利用城市标度律理论,从全域和城市(镇)群2个视角定量分析了广西城市发展过程中城市要素和人口规模间的标度关系。研究结果表明:在广西全域视角下,城市要素与人口规模呈线性关系,但在市辖区尺度下的城市要素更能满足城市人口的增长需求。广西的城市发展水平要低于全国其他城市发展水平,标度因子呈现负值的要素与经济相关,特别是地区生产总值的增长幅度与人口的增长规模不匹配,人口红利无法转化为经济增长点。在城市(镇)群视角下,广西各城市(镇)群的城市发展具有显著的空间分异性特点。政府应根据每个城市或地区的特点来指导城市更好地发展与扩张,加强各城市(镇)群之间的联系,构建更加全面、健康、可持续的城市发展战略。

高等教育规模、城镇化与区域经济增长机制研究——基于省级面板数据的证据

高等教育规模是经济持续增长的重要因素,城镇化是否在高等教育规模对区域经济增长的影响中发挥了重要中介效应,需要进一步研究。为此,可以基于2004一2020年国家统计局省级面板数据,分析高等教育规模与区域经济增长的关系,辨析城镇化在两者关系中的作用,进而探究高等教育规模、城镇化对区域经济增长的影响机理。研究结果表明:高等教育规模促进区域经济增长具有直接作用;城镇化对区域经济增长具有正向驱动作用;城镇化在高等教育规模促进区域经济增长过程中发挥了中介效应。这也证明了“高等教育规模一城镇化一区域经济增长”机制的存在。为有效利用该机制,建议适度扩大高等教育规模,加快培养高层次创新人才,因地制宜加快新型城镇化建设,推动城镇产业结构升级,建设现代化产业体系,促进区域经济快速健康发展。

大型城镇集中安置区搬迁移民生计资本组合对家庭收入影响机理的实证研究

易地搬迁移民已成为防止规模性返贫的重要群体。当前,搬迁移民面临着就业市场风险增大,生计资本存量减少以及家庭增收困难等现实问题,优化移民生计资本内部结构,发挥生计资本间的组合效应,提升生计资本组合对移民家庭收入的贡献作用是解决上述问题的重要途径。学界当前与易地搬迁相关的研究多聚焦分析移民生计资本对家庭总收入的作用机制,较少基于结构功能理论视角,从实证层面探讨生计资本组合对家庭不同收入来源的影响及其相互作用机制。本文以贵州省大型城镇集中安置区移民为研究对象,首先测算移民家庭生计资本,分别采用OLS和分位数回归分析生计资本与家庭收入之间的作用机理,然后采用多元线性回归模型测算生计资本间的互补效应和替代效应,构建了移民家庭收入与生计资本组合之间的矩阵分析模型,分别应用tobit和logit回归进行实证检验,并剖析了不同维度下不同生计资本组合对不同类型收入的影响。研究结果表明:(1)移民生计资本总量有助于提升家庭收入水平。在后搬迁时代,自然资本对家庭收入的边际贡献最小,而社会资本对家庭收入呈现负向影响。(2)五大资本中的人力资本与自然资本、物质资本、社会资本以及金融资本之间存在着普适性互补效应,金融资本与社会资本间存在替代效应。(3)互补性生计资本值越大,移民家庭工资收入和财产收入越高;互补性和替代性资本量均较低的家庭主要以获得转移性收入维持生计。

“城—产—人”关联视角下城市边缘乡村转型的多尺度路径——以江苏溧阳北拓区为例

文章从空间、要素和时间维度,辨析城边村与“城”“产”“人”三重外部动力的多重关联性,构建“城—产—人”关联视角下的城边村转型研究框架。在此视角下,基于城边村演化发展的核心特征总结,从城区、园区、社区3个层面探讨城边村转型的多尺度空间路径,分别为:以城乡融合推动空间结构重组、以产业转型支撑空间布局融合、以人群需求引领品质生活营造。最后以溧阳北拓区乡村为例,以“融入城区—联动园区—激活社区”为脉络,提出城边村多尺度协同的规划策略,以期为我国乡村转型与新型城镇化提供可能的借鉴。

多因素协同的大型活动场馆周边路段速度预测

大型活动会引起举办场馆周边区域路网出现交通流短时骤增与消散,导致周边区域路网交通运行呈现偶发性与不确定性波动,而现有预测方法通常难以捕捉特殊事件下交通流受多维因素复杂影响及其演变机理。为充分挖掘路段速度的时间序列和影响因素特征,揭示速度预测中不同影响特征间的耦合作用机理,提出了一种结合可解释机器学习与长短时记忆网络的速度预测模型(MC-LSTM)。结合大型活动的特点构建影响因素集,采用XGBoost算法评价活动规模、性质等因素特征对场馆周边路段速度的影响相对重要度,量化多元因素对场馆周边路网运行状态的协同效用,融合LSTM网络,考虑交通状态的时间依赖关系,捕获不同历史时期的时间相关性,实现对活动期间场馆周边路段速度的精确预测。以北京市连续6个月的大型活动期间周边路网为例进行模型验证,结果表明:所构建的MC-LSTM模型的预测精度可达94.5%以上,优于考虑多因素协同的XGBoost模型、只考虑单因素特征的LSTM模型及未考虑外部特征的LSTM模型,证明该研究所提出的模型有效性与稳定性更优,可为大型活动场馆周边路网交通组织优化和制定针对性交通管控与保障措施提供定量化的决策依据。

城市群集聚规模对城市工资水平的影响研究

城市群是城市发展的高级形态,近年来,随着我国城市发展水平的不断提高,城市群在区域经济中的地位日益突出。为了更好理解城市群的影响,以我国城市群作为研究对象,选取了相关城市2007-2021年的面板数据,对城市群集聚规模影响城市工资水平的方向和路径进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:城市群集聚规模对城市工资水平存在着显著的正向影响,且这种影响是异质的;城市群集聚规模主要通过推动城市产业升级和提升城市创新能力两种途径促进城市工资水平的提高。

考虑站点耦合关系的大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效分析

为了解析站点分布密集的大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效传播机理,提出改进的耦合映射格子模型.该模型结合大型城市轨道交通网络站点分布密集特征,量化耦合站点间客流演化及耦合站点抵抗力.为了衡量级联失效在大型城市轨道交通网络中的传播过程与结果,提出失效站点数量比与网络效率比指标.以上海市城市轨道交通网络为例,验证该模型的可行性.结果表明:当节点度高或进站客流量大的站点失效后,耦合站点间的级联失效规模是邻接站点间的约2倍,且由于耦合站点间的级联失效的影响,介数中心性大的站点失效所引起的级联失效传播速度最快.在考虑耦合站点间级联失效时,客流对大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效的作用力是拓扑结构的约9倍.研究结论可以为城市轨道交通网络的规划设计与事故管控提供科学的建议.

城市水利大海绵在宿迁市的探索与实践

当前我国海绵城市建设主要以低影响开发(LID)为主,虽有效提升了城市排水防涝能力,但仍缺乏流域、区域、城市、社区多尺度建设措施的协同推进。以江苏省宿迁市推进海绵城市建设为切入点,提出“城市水利大海绵”的概念,阐述其理念内涵、建设目标等,指出城市水利大海绵是以城市河湖水系为基础、各种水利设施为节点、精细化调度为灵魂,并与小尺度LID设施有效衔接的系统化全域海绵城市建设新模式。在此基础上,确定了以天然水域面积比例为基础指标,以统筹保障城市水安全、优化水资源配置、改善水生态等为基本目标的城市水利大海绵构建思路,剖析了其构建过程中的关键指标,阐明了相应的实施路径。