Recent Trends and Future Predictions until 2060 of Urban Warming in Four Israeli Cities Employing the RegCM Climate Model

During periods of global warming (GW), expected increases in urban temperatures can have adverse impacts on city climate and thermal discomfort due to combined urban and global warming effects. The different climates in four cities in Israel are studied for the purpose of differentiating global vs. urban warming. Trends in urban and nearby rural areas were compared in order to estimate the urbanization effect on the local climate zones. Daily 06:00 and 15:00 Local Time (LT) temperatures for July 1980-2014 were investigated. The linear relationship between the urban warming and population growth observed in present climate data is assumed to continue into the near future. The Regional Climate Model (RegCM) temperature trends into the 21st century are assumed to represent primarily the GW because of the relatively coarse grid interval of 25 km. Hence, this study first differentiates between global and local warming past trends, and then uses this past result to make future projections that consider both factors. A unique feature of this study is the large climatic variety over Israel—a small country that encompasses no less than 5 different K?ppen climatic zones. The urban minus rural temperature (1980-2014) changes, ΔTu-r, show more intense warming in the afternoon in all 4 cities. For instance, in Jerusalem and Eilat, the ΔTu-r has increased by ~1.2°C. Following the RegCM predictions, by 2060 with “No population growth”, this temperature increase is expected to continue, by 1.114°C and 1.119°C, respectively. If, however, these cities grow rapidly, air temperature will increase by 2.937°C - 4.129°C and 2.778°C - 3.939°C, respectively.

Exploring harmonious development between urbanization and eco-environment based on climate analysis—A study in Changsha, China

The process of urbanization affects the urban warming.The change of urban warming was investigated by several urbanization factors in Changsha,China.The data of surface temperature(minimum,maximum and mean) of Changsha were analyzed to understand the possible effects of urbanization on the climate of this region owing to the population growth,built-up area expansion and energy consumption increases.The weights of these three factors were calculated by the analytical hierarchy process(AHP).Then,three weights were simulated with nonlinear method to obtain the urbanization development rate which was utilized to reveal the influence of the urbanization factors on the surface temperature.The result shows that there is a significant upward trend in the urban temperatures of Changsha.The temperature increase seems to be closely related to the rate of urbanization between 1993 and 2008,and there is an evidential increase trend of the influence on urban temperature by urbanization during 16 years.It is a quantifiable approach measuring the relationship between urbanization and urban eco-environment,and can be applied for the urban sustainability.