Snowmelt modeling using two melt-rate models in the Urumqi River watershed, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China

In this paper,the performance of the classic snowmelt runoff model(SRM)is evaluated in a daily discharge simulation with two different melt models,the empirical temperature-index melt model and the energy-based radiation melt model,through a case study from the data-sparse mountainous watershed of the Urumqi River basin in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China.The classic SRM,which uses the empirical temperature-index method,and a radiation-based SRM,incorporating shortwave solar radiation and snow albedo,were developed to simulate daily runoff for the spring and summer snowmelt seasons from 2005 to 2012,respectively.Daily meteorological and hydrological data were collected from three stations located in the watershed.Snow cover area(SCA)was extracted from satellite images.Solar radiation inputs were estimated based on a digital elevation model(DEM).The results showed that the overall accuracy of the classic SRM and radiation-based SRM for simulating snowmeltdischarge was relatively high.The classic SRM outperformed the radiation-based SRM due to the robust performance of the temperature-index model in the watershed snowmelt computation.No significant improvement was achieved by employing solar radiation and snow albedo in the snowmelt runoff simulation due to the inclusion of solar radiation as a temperature-dependent energy source and the local pattern of snowmelt behavior throughout the melting season.Our results suggest that the classic SRM simulates daily runoff with favorable accuracy and that the performance of the radiation-based SRM needs to be further improved by more ground-measured data for snowmelt energy input.

Hydrological processes of glacier and snow melting and runoff in the Urumqi River source region, eastern Tianshan Mountains, China

Hydrological processes were compared, with and without the influence of precipita- tion on discharge, to identify the differences between glacierized and non-glacierized catchments in the Urumqi River source region, on the northern slope of the eastern Tianshan Mountains, during the melting season （May-September） in 2011. The study was based on hydrological data observed at 10-min intervals, meteorological data observed at 15-min intervals, and glacier melting and snow observations from the Empty Cirque, Zongkong, and Urumqi Glacier No.1 gauging stations. The results indicated that the discharge differed markedly among the three gauging stations. The daily discharge was more than the nightly discharge at the Glacier No.1 gauging station, which contrasted with the patterns observed at the Zongkong and Empty Cirque gauging stations. There was a clear daily variation in the discharge at the three gauging stations, with differences in the magnitude and duration of the peak discharge. When precipitation was not considered, the time-lags between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature were 1-3 h, 10-16 h, and 5-11 h at the Glacier No.l, Empty Cirque, and Zongkong gauging stations, respectively. When precipitation was taken into consideration, the corresponding time-lags were 0-1 h, 13 h, and 6-7 h, respectively. Therefore, the duration from the generation of discharge to confluence was the shortest in the glacierized catchment and the longest in the catchment where was mainly covered by snow. It was also shown that the hydrological process from the generation of discharge to confluence shortened when precipitation was considered. The factors influencing changes in the discharge among the three gauging stations were different. For Glacier No.1 station, the discharge was mainly controlled by heat conditions in the glacierized region, and the discharge displayed an accelerated growth when the temperature exceeded 5℃ in the melt season. It was found that the englacial and subglacial drainage channel of Glacier No.1 had become simpler during the past 20 years. Its weaker retardance and storage of glacier melting water resulted in rapid discharge confluence. It was also shown that the discharge curve and the time-lag between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature could be used to reveal the evolution of the drainage system and the process of glacier and snow melting at different levels of glacier coverage.

Sensitivity of mountain runoff to climate change for Urumqi and Kaidu rivers originating from the Tianshan Mountains

The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoffwere analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis, Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Ummqi River and Kaidu River Basins Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Ummqi River Basin.

Glacier mass balance and its impacts on streamflow in a typical inland river basin in the Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China

Glaciers are known as natural ’’solid reservoirs’ ’, and they play a dual role between the composition of water resources and the river runoff regulation in arid and semi-arid areas of China. In this study, we used in situ observation data from Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in combination with meteorological data from stations and a digital elevation model, to develop a distributed degree-day model for glaciers in the Urumqi River Basin to simulate glacier mass balance processes and quantify their effect on streamflow during 1980–2020. The results indicate that the mass loss and the equilibrium line altitude(ELA) of glaciers in the last 41 years had an increasing trend, with the average mass balance and ELA being-0.85(±0.32) m w.e./a(meter water-equivalent per year) and 4188 m a.s.l., respectively. The glacier mass loss has increased significantly during 1999–2020, mostly due to the increase in temperature and the extension of ablation season. During 1980–2011, the average annual glacier meltwater runoff in the Urumqi River Basin was 0.48×108 m3, accounting for 18.56% of the total streamflow. We found that the annual streamflow in different catchments in the Urumqi River Basin had a strong response to the changes in glacier mass balance, especially from July to August, and the glacier meltwater runoff increased significantly. In summary, it is quite possible that the results of this research can provide a reference for the study of glacier water resources in glacier-recharged basins in arid and semi-arid areas.

Response of glacier area variation to climate change in the Kaidu-Kongque river basin,Southern Tianshan Mountains during the last 20 years

Glaciers are crucial water resources for arid inland rivers in Northwest China.In recent decades,glaciers are largely experiencing shrinkage under the climate-warming scenario,thereby exerting tremendous influences on regional water resources.The primary role of understudying watershed scale glacier changes under changing climatic conditions is to ensure sustainable utilization of regional water resources,to prevent and mitigate glacier-related disasters.This study maps the current(2020)distribution of glacier boundaries across the Kaidu-Kongque river basin,south slope of Tianshan Mountains,and monitors the spatial evolution of glaciers over five time periods from 2000-2020 through thresholded band ratios approach,using 25 Landsat images at 30 m resolution.In addition,this study attempts to understand the role of climate characteristics for variable response of glacier area.The results show that the total area of glaciers was 398.21 km^(2)in 2020.The glaciers retreated by about 1.17 km^(2)/a(0.26%/a)from 2000 to 2020.The glaciers were reducing at a significantly rapid rate between 2000 and 2005,a slow rate from 2005 to 2015,and an accelerated rate during 2015-2020.The meteorological data shows slight increasing trends of mean annual temperature(0.02℃/a)and annual precipitation(2.07 mm/a).The correlation analysis demonstrates that the role of temperature presents more significant correlation with glacier recession than precipitation.There is a temporal hysteresis in the response of glacier change to climate change.Increasing trend of temperature in summer proves to be the driving force behind the Kaidu-Kongque basin glacier recession during the recent 20 years.

Multi-decadal variations in glacier flow velocity and the influencing factors of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China

Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is a representative glacier in the inland areas of Central Asia and is the only Chinese reference glacier in the World Glacier Monitoring Service. In this study, we explored multi-decadal variations in the flow velocity of the glacier and the influencing factors based on continuous field observations and path coefficient analysis. Results show that the glacier flow velocity decreased from 5.5 m/a in 1980/1981 to 3.3 m/a in 2010/2011. The annual variation in the direction of glacier flow velocity in the western branch and eastern branch was less than 1°–3°, and the change of glacier flow velocity in the western branch was more dramatic than that in the eastern branch. Glacier flow velocity was influenced by glacier morphology（including glacier area, glacier length, and ice thickness）, glacier mass balance and local climate conditions（air temperature and precipitation）, the glacier morphology being the leading factor. The long-term flow velocity data set of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 contributes to a better understanding of glacier dynamics within the context of climatic warming.

Effect of topography on the changes of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Topography plays an important role in determining the glacier changes.However,topography has often been oversimplified in the studies of the glacier changes.No systematic studies have been conducted to evaluate the relationship between the glacier changes and topographic features.The present study provided a detailed insight into the changes in the two branches(east branch and west branch)of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1993 and systematically discussed the effect of topography on the glacier parameters.This study analyzed comprehensive recently observed data(from 1992/1993 to 2018/2019),including mass balance,ice thickness,surface elevation,ice velocity,terminus,and area,and then determined the differences in the changes of the two branches and explored the effect of topography on the glacier changes.We also applied a topographic solar radiation model to analyze the influence of topography on the incoming shortwave radiation(SW_(in))across the entire glacier,focusing on the difference in the SW_(in) between the two branches.The glacier mass balance of the east branch was more negative than that of the west branch from 1992/1993 to 2018/2019,and this was mainly attributed to the lower average altitude of the east branch.Compared with the west branch,the decrease rate of the ice velocity was lower in the east branch owing to its relatively increased slope.The narrow shape of the west branch and its southeast aspect in the earlier period resulted in a larger glacier terminus retreat of the west branch.The spatial variability of the SW_(in) across the glacier surface became much larger as altitude increased.The SW_(in) received by the east branch was slightly larger than that received by the west branch,and the northern aspect could receive more SW_(in),leading to glacier melting.In the future,the difference of the glacier changes between the two branches will continue to exist due to their topographic differences.This work is fundamental to understanding how topographic features affect the glacier changes,and provides information for building different types of relationship between the glacier area and ice volume to promote further studies on the basin-scale glacier classification.

Chemical Characteristics and Environmental Significance of Fresh Snow Deposition on Urumqi Glacier No.1 of Tianshan Mountains, China

Ice and snow chemistry of alpine glaciers is crucial for the research of regional atmospheric environment change. Fresh snow samples were weekly collected from Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains, Xin- jiang, China, and the chemical characteristics and seasonal variations of major ions, mineral dust, δ18O and trace metals were measured. Results show that the concentrations of major ions in the snow are Ca2+ > SO42-> NH4+ > NO3-> Cl-> Na+ > Mg2+ > K+, in which Ca2+ is the dominant cation, and SO42-is the dominant anion. All major ions have close positive correlations with each other except NO3-. δ18O shows positive correlation with air temperature change during the study period. Mineral dust particle and major ionic concentrations in fresh snow have obvious seasonal change, with high concentration in spring but low concentration in summer and autumn, which indicates that the chemical mass input from Asian dust activity to snow is very significant. Temporal changes of trace metals in fresh snow, e.g., Cd, Pb, Zn, Al, Fe, have shown that human-induced pollution of central Asian region also has large contribution to the snow chemistry on alpine glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains.

Identifying water vapor sources of precipitation in forest and grassland in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains,Central Asia

Identifying water vapor sources in the natural vegetation of the Tianshan Mountains is of significant importance for obtaining greater knowledge about the water cycle,forecasting water resource changes,and dealing with the adverse effects of climate change.In this study,we identified water vapor sources of precipitation and evaluated their effects on precipitation stable isotopes in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains,China.By utilizing the temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation stable isotopes in the forest and grassland regions,Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)model,and isotope mass balance model,we obtained the following results.(1)The Eurasia,Black Sea,and Caspian Sea are the major sources of water vapor.(2)The contribution of surface evaporation to precipitation in forests is lower than that in the grasslands(except in spring),while the contribution of plant transpiration to precipitation in forests(5.35%)is higher than that in grasslands(3.79%)in summer.(3)The underlying surface and temperature are the main factors that affect the contribution of recycled water vapor to precipitation;meanwhile,the effects of water vapor sources of precipitation on precipitation stable isotopes are counteracted by other environmental factors.Overall,this work will prove beneficial in quantifying the effect of climate change on local water cycles.

Monitoring and analysis of snow cover change in an alpine mountainous area in the Tianshan Mountains,China

Estimating the snow cover change in alpine mountainous areas(in which meteorological stations are typically lacking)is crucial for managing local water resources and constitutes the first step in evaluating the contribution of snowmelt to runoff and the water cycle.In this paper,taking the Jingou River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,China as an example,we combined a new moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS)snow cover extent product over China spanning from 2000 to 2020 with digital elevation model(DEM)data to study the change in snow cover and the hydrological response of runoff to snow cover change in the Jingou River Basin under the background of climate change through trend analysis,sensitivity analysis and other methods.The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020,the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in the study area increased and snow cover fraction(SCF)showed obvious signs of periodicity.Furthermore,there were significant regional differences in the spatial distribution of snow cover days(SCDs),which were numerous in the south of the basin and sparse in the central of the basin.Factors affecting the change in snow cover mainly included temperature,precipitation,elevation,slope and aspect.Compared to precipitation,temperature had a greater impact on SCF.The annual variation in SCF was limited above the elevation of 4200 m,but it fluctuated greatly below the elevation of 4200 m.These results can be used to establish prediction models of snowmelt and runoff for alpine mountainous areas with limited hydrological data,which can provide a scientific basis for the management and protection of water resources in alpine mountainous areas.

The processes and characteristics of mass balance on the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 during 1958-2009

As a solid reservoir, a glacier can regulate regional water resources. The annual net mass balance directly reflects the fluctuation of the glacier and climate variability. Based on 51 years of mass balance observation data, the mass balance of Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1 experienced a nine times positive balance fluctuation and nine times negative balance fluctuation. There were 35 and 16 negative and positive balance years, respectively. From 1996/97 to 2008/09, 12 consecutive negative balance years were observed at Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1. These results demon- strate that the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is experiencing a strong negative balance, and the strongest negative balance, -931 mm w.e. （mm water equivalent）, during the observation period occurred in 2008. In addition, the cumulative mass balance reached 13,709 mm w.e. in 2008. However, in 2009, the mass balance was positive at 63 mm w.e. The equilibrium-line al- titude changes with the fluctuation in the mass balance, and the effective mass balance gradient is 7.4 mrn/m. In this paper, the headwaters of the Urumqi River were analyzed using meteorological data from 1958 to 2009, including the average seasonal temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the main factor associated with the mass balance variation of Glacier No. 1 is the fluctuation in the summer air temperature, followed by changes in the precipitation.

Geomorphology of the Urümqi River Valley and the uplift of the Tianshan Mountains in Quaternary

The Shaerqiaoke Gravel, more than 400 m in thickness, on the north piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, is located at the exit of the Urümqi River Valley and belongs to the Molasse construction of the Tianshan Mountains. Another uplift event with the tectonic boundary expansion ended the deposition of the Shaerqiaoke Gravel, and resulted in folding, faulting and down-erosion in the frontier of the deposit. The ESR dating indicates that the top of the Shaerqiaoke Gravel accumulated before 1148 kaBP, probably responding to the Kunlun-Huanghe movement of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. After that time, erosion-deposition cycle occurred and 9 terraces developed. The TL and ESR dating techniques were employed to date these terraces, and the results indicate that Terrace 3 was formed at MIS 6. Terrace 2 at Houxia also developed simultaneously. Terraces 5 and 6 were accumulated in 338 kaBP and 562-591 kaBP, respectively. The oldest glaciation, named Gao Wangfeng, correlates to MIS 12.

Variations in the equilibrium line altitude of Urumqi Glacier No.1,Tianshan Mountains,over the past 50 years

The glacier ELA is one of the important parameters reflecting climate change.Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude(ELA) of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains,we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors,warm season air temperature(air temperature averages for May,June,July and August) and annual precipitation.Result showed that,warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations.The glacier ELA ascends(descends) 61.7 m when warm season air temperature increases(decreases) by 1°C,and ascends(descends) 13.1 m when cold season precipitation decreases(increases) by 10%.In the period 1959-2008,the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend,ascending108 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2008 at 4168 m a.s.l.,close to the glacier summit.If future climate is similar to that in the past 50 years,the ELA of Urumqi Glacier No.1 will still ascend with a speed of 2.16 m/a.However,If future climate is similar to that in the period 2000-2008,the ELA will still ascend with a speed of 6.5 m/a before it is stable.As a result of ELA variation,the accumulation area ratio(AAR) of the glacier showed a decreasing trend during the past 50 years.

STUDY ON SUPERGLACIAL CUMULATIVE STRAIN ON NO.1 GLACIER AT THE HEAD OF WULUMUQI (URUMQI) RIVER,TIANSHAN

The distribution of the strain-rate patterns on glacial surface discloses the variations in the velocity gradient of glacial movement, and is closely related to manifold superglacial structures. Thus, with the flow of the glacier, what should appear on the time-dependent cumulative effect of strain-rate? How does it affect the glacial structure? Based upon the study on the distribution of strain-rate on the surface of No. 1 Glacier at the head of the Wulumuqi River, Tianshan (for short, No. 1 Glacier), the following is a report on this problem.

Variations in the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains region and their significance for the Westerly circulation

Proxy records of the oxygen isotopic composition of meteorological precipitation （δ^18Op） preserved in archives such as ice cores, lacustrine carbonates and stalagmite calcite are important for paleoclimatic studies. Therefore, knowledge of the variations and controlling mechanisms of modern δ^18Op on different time scales is necessary. Here, we investigate the linear correlations between δ^18Op and corresponding temperature and precipitation on monthly and inter-annual timescales, using data from the Urumqi （1986-2003） and Hotan stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation （GNIP）, and δ^18O data from 4 ice cores in the adjacent Tianshan Mountains. Consistent with previous reported results, modern δ^18Op variations on a seasonal time scale in the Tianshan region are mainly controlled by a ＇temperature effect＇ （indicated by a significant positive correlation between δ^18Op and temperature）, with more positive δ^18Op values occurring in summer. However, on an inter-annual timescale, there is a weak inverse correlation between weighted average annual δ^18Op and annual average temperature at Urumqi station. This finding is supported by the inversely varying trends of δ^18Op data from 4 ice cores in the central and eastern Tianshan Mountains compared to annual average temperatures in the same region during the past 40-50 years. The data from Urumqi station and the 4 ice cores demonstrate that there is inverse correlation between δ^18Op and temperature on inter-annual to decadal time scales. Analysis of water vapor sources and pathways for the warm year of 1997 and the cold year of 1988 reveal that relatively more water vapor for the Tianshan region was derived from long-distance transport from high-latitude sources than during the warm year of 1997; and that more water vapor was transported from more proximal sources from mid- to low-latitude areas during the cold year of 1988. In addition, the δ^18Op values are more negative in the high latitude areas than those in mid- to low-latitude areas in the Eurasian continent at the upper wind direction of Tianshan Mountains region, according to the weighted averaged warm season （May to September）δ^18Op values for 14 GNIP stations in the years 1997 and 1988. Due to the distribution of δ^18Op within the Eurasian continent, the relative shift of water vapor sources between warm and cold years convincingly explains the observed variations of δ^18Op in the Tianshan Mountains region. Therefore, we conclude that variations in 518OD in this region are mainly controlled by changes in water vapor sources which are ultimately caused by northward and southward shifts in the Westerly circulation.

西天山山地草甸不同坡向昆虫群落与植物多样性及功能性状的关系

【目的】阐明坡向对昆虫群落的影响,探究不同坡向昆虫群落与植物多样性及功能性状的关系。【方法】以西天山国家级自然保护区山地草甸为研究对象,通过野外植被和昆虫取样,分析阴坡、阳坡和坡顶3种生境的昆虫群落物种组成和多样性特征,探讨与植物多样性、功能性状的关系。【结果】1)该山地草甸的昆虫种类丰富多样,隶属于8目172种,双翅目(Diptera)和半翅目(Hemiptera)为优势类,分别占个体数的77.02%和21.32%。阴坡昆虫数量最多,为4 399头,其次为坡顶和阳坡,分别为2 750头和1 959头;2)昆虫群落特征指数在阳坡、阴坡、坡顶具有明显差异性,阳坡昆虫群落特征指数最高。3)植物多样性和功能性状对昆虫群落的影响具有差异性(P<0.01)。叶长与昆虫群落优势度指数和丰度指数具有显著相关性(P<0.01),株高与昆虫群落丰富度指数具有显著相关性(P<0.01),植物种类与昆虫多样性没有显著相关性。【结论】西天山保护区山地草甸植物功能性状中的叶长、株高是影响西天山山地草甸昆虫群落的主要因子。

1991-2008年天山乌鲁木齐河源区多年冻土的变化

天山乌鲁木齐河源多年冻土变化的研究,对于揭示气候变暖背景下,天山多年冻土对气候变化的响应以及由多年冻土变化引起的植被土壤演化、水文变化具有重要意义.对1991以来河源区海拔3500m左右的气温、降水、地温观测数据进行综合分析,结果表明:河源区的活动层呈逐渐增厚趋势,最大活动层厚度出现在2007年,达到1.60m,较1992年增加了0.35m;多年冻土活动层的变化与河源区夏半年(5-10月)的水热状况密切相关,活动层厚度随融化指数、夏半年降水量的增加而增大.多年冻土年变化深度由1993年的10m增加到12m左右;年平均地温上升明显,由1993年的-1.6℃上升到2008年的-1.0℃.年变化层以下的温度,均有不同程度的上升,年均增温速率随深度的增加而减小,推断长期持续的气候变暖是导致乌鲁木齐河源区多年冻土升温的主要驱动力.估算2008年的多年冻土下限深度约为86.8m,较1992年减小了7.7m,河源区多年冻土很可能正在发生自下而上的迅速退化.

夏干萨特树轮年表中降水信息的探讨与326年降水重建

夏干萨特位于新疆天山中段乌鲁木齐河山区 ,在此干旱、半干旱地区的森林下限所采集的天山云杉 (Picca schrenk-inna var. tianschanica)树轮样本建立的树轮宽度年表具有最大的平均敏感度和最大的标准差 ,说明该年表可能含有最多的降水信息。利用相关分析的方法计算了年轮宽度指数和气候要素间的相关关系 ,发现 5月份的降水与年表的相关最好。进一步计算了旬降水量与年表的相关关系 ,发现 5月下旬的降水与年表的单相关系数最高 ,5月下旬的降水是森林下限云杉生长的主要限制因子。这一结果具有明确的树木生理学意义。云杉直径生长主要在 5～ 8月份 ,其中 5～ 6月份形成大约一半的年轮。5月下旬位于年轮形成关键时段的中部 ,为轮宽形成的最活跃期。同时 5月下旬降水的大变率与夏干萨特年表的高敏感度相一致 ,从另一角度说明了 5月下旬降水作为森林下限天山云杉生长关键限制因子的适当性。重建了大西沟气象站 5月下旬 3 2 6a的降水并分析了其长期变化特征 ,发现 3 2 0多年来的 5月下旬降水分为 8个完整的干湿变化阶段 ,其中最干期出现在 1 70 1～ 1 72 2年 ,最湿期出现在 1 961～ 1 981年。降水序列具有显著的 64,3 2 ,2 2 ,1 4,5和 1 1 a变化周期 ,其中的 2 2 a及 1 1 a周期与太阳黑子的活动周期相一致。

天山南、北坡河流出山径流对气候变化的敏感性分析——以开都河与乌鲁木齐河出山径流为例

选取开都河与乌鲁木齐河山区流域为研究区域,利用有关水文气象台站1960～2005年的观测资料,对研究区域的气温、降水与出山径流的变化特征及趋势进行了分析,并根据研究区域气候变化的特征与趋势及出山径流与山区降水、气温之间的关系,假定不同的气候情景组合,建立山区径流对气候变化的响应模型,以揭示天山南、北坡河流出山径流对气候变化的响应及其差异。结果表明,开都河与乌鲁木齐河山区径流与气温、降水量均呈正相关关系,受山区降水、气温持续增加和上升的影响,出山径流总体呈上升趋势,1990年代以后的升幅尤为显著;相对而言,乌鲁木齐河山区径流对降水变化更为敏感,而开都河出山径流对气温变化的敏感性略甚于气温。

42a来天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川变化及趋势预测

1959—2000年间天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川发生了显著变化,冰川物质平衡累计达-7976 0mm,冰川末端退缩171 06m,冰川面积缩小0 217km2,冰川厚度平均减薄8 86m,冰储量减小21 9×106m3,冰川运动速度平均减小39 3%,冰川成冰带谱上移,冷渗浸重结晶带消失.从冰川物质平衡反映的气候变化趋势推测,1号冰川要扭亏为盈,改变已有的巨大的物质亏损(-7976 0mm),除非要连续21a出现42a来最大正平衡(+374 0mm).已有的观测研究表明,这种情况不大可能出现,1号冰川目前的退缩趋势还将持续相当一段时间,至少在未来20～30a内不会出现明显的前进.从树木年轮反映的冷暖气候变化周期性推测,目前正处小冰期以来第三个温暖期.若这次温暖期重现62～67a周期的情况,则温暖气候还将持续20～30a左右.可见1号冰川至少还将持续退缩20～30a.