Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System:Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi,Eastern China

Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE （THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.

Development and application of knowledge-based subject group integration platforms:A case study of Shanghai Institute of Ceramics,CAS

Purpose:According to the different requirements of research group users,we established the knowledge-based subject group integration platforms of Shanghai Institute of Ceramics,the Chinese Academy of Sciences(abbreviated as SIC CAS hereinafter),which were designed and constructed to better meet the needs of CAS research groups for their development,collaboration and communication.Design/methodology/approach:We first identified the requirements of users via preliminary investigation,and then chose CASI1 P,iLibrary and XKE technology,respectively as the building tools compatible with the major demands of users.These steps helped us complete the layout design of SIC CAS integration platforms,as well as its knowledge organization and integration.Findings:According to the need of users,we applied three types of platform construction technologies to five SIC integration platforms,and formulated standard norms for the further construction process,which could provide useful reference for a sustainable development for the extensive construction in CAS institutes.Research limitations:In order to make the SIC integration platforms more intelligent and have more functions,we need to enlarge the scale of the Platforms and upgrade the building tools for the platform construction.Practical implications:The nature of SIC sub-project integration platforms is to construct a content-sensitive environment which can embed knowledge services and knowledge applications seamlessly into scientific activities,so the Platform is expected to be a useful tool to help researchers better understand the recent development of the research field and form collaborations with their peers.Originality/value:SIC integration platforms are the only pilot construction that used 3different platform technologies in the first batch of knowledge-based subject group integration platforms of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.The construction is user-centered throughout the whole process,namely,from the technology selection,content construction to the sustainable development of the platforms,which are all based on user requirements.During this process,we have not only established sustainable mechanisms for both the personalized feedback and security management of the institutional knowledge of SIC CAS,but also formed a service team for the sustainable development of SIC integration platforms.

Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

The purpose of improving weather forecast isto enhance the accuracy in weather prediction.An idealforecasting system would incorporate user-end information.In recent years,the meteorological community hasbegun to realize that while general improvements to thephysical characteristics of weather forecasting systems arebecoming asymptotically limited,the improvement fromthe user end still has potential.The weather forecastingsystem should include user interaction because user needsmay change with different weather.A study was conductedon the conceptual forecasting system that included adynamic,user-oriented interactive component.Thisresearch took advantage of the recently implementedTIGGE(THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)project in China,a case study that was conducted to test thenew forecasting system with reservoir managers in LinyiCity,Shandong Province,a region rich in rivers andreservoirs in eastern China.A self-improving forecastsystem was developed involving user feedback throughouta flood season,changing thresholds for flood-inducingrainfall that were responsive to previous weather andhydrological conditions,and dynamic user-oriented assessmentsof the skill and uncertainty inherent in weatherprediction.This paper discusses ideas for developinginteractive,user-oriented forecast systems.

Cursor momentum for fascination measurement

We present a very different cause of search engine user behaviors ——fascination. It is generally identified as the initial effect of a product attribute on users' interest and purchase intentions. Considering the fact that in most cases the cursor is driven directly by a hand to move via a mouse (or touchpad), we use the cursor movement as the critical feature to analyze the personal reaction against the fascinating search results. This paper provides a deep insight into the goal-directed cursor movement that occurs within a remarkably short period of time (<30 milliseconds), which is the interval between a user's click-through and decision-making behaviors. Instead of the fundamentals, we focus on revealing the characteristics of the split-second cursor movement. Our empirical findings showed that a user may push or pull the mouse with a slightly greater strength when fascinated by a search result. As a result, the cursor slides toward the search result with an increased momentum. We model the momentum through a combination of translational and angular kinetic energy calculations. Based on Fitts' law, we implement goal-directed cursor movement identification. Supported by the momentum, together with other physical features, we built different fascination-based search result reranking systems. Our experiments showed that goal-directed cursor momentum is an effective feature in detecting fascination. In particular, they show feasibility in both the personalized and cross-media cases. In addition, we detail the advantages and disadvantages of both click-through rate and cursor momentum for re-ranking search results.