基于Valued ERGMs模型的核心技术网络成长机制研究——以量子计算领域为例

对核心技术网络及其成长机制的研究有助于梳理核心技术之间的依赖和促进关系,为研究核心技术演化提供新的理论视角和方法。以技术演化相关理论为基础,归纳核心技术网络成长的影响因素,基于量子计算领域专利数据,识别以技术概念和技术关系为基础的量子计算领域核心技术网络,并基于Valued ERGMs模型构建核心技术网络成长机制模型。结果表明,技术要素中心性、专利技术研发能力、与TRIZ进化法则匹配程度以及技术要素同配性对核心技术网络成长具有正向促进作用;在技术路径方面,核心技术网络成长受到技术要素路径依赖性和技术突破的双重影响。最后,根据量子计算领域核心技术网络成长机制的实证研究结果,从技术研发层面、企业层面、政府层面为相关领域技术发展提出策略建议。

弹性退休制度下谁更愿意延迟退休?——基于Option Value模型的微观模拟

人口老龄化背景下延迟退休年龄、建立弹性退休制度是大势所趋。养老金激励是弹性退休制度的重要内容。建立期权价值模型和养老金给付及奖惩因子模型,基于中国家庭收入调查项目(CHIP2018)的数据,对不同特征人群的养老金峰值、期权价值、内部报酬率进行模拟。研究发现:养老金总财富随退休年龄“先增后减”,男性的峰值年龄早于女性;引入养老金“奖惩”机制有助于提高最优退休年龄,激励劳动者延迟退休;考虑闲暇偏好的异质性,男性参保者更倾向于早退休,而女性参保者特别是女性较高收入群体更愿意延迟退休;厌恶风险的参保者更有可能选择早退休。建议尽早建立弹性退休年龄政策体系,增加劳动者的选择权和制度灵活性;引入精算调节因子构建养老金奖惩机制,完善养老保险待遇计发办法。

Improving the nutritional values of yellow mealworm Tenebrio molitor(Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) larvae as an animal feed ingredient: a review

Yellow mealworm larvae(YML;Tenebrio molitor) are considered as a valuable insect species for animal feed due to their high nutritional values and ability to grow under different substrates and rearing conditions. Advances in the understanding of entomophagy and animal nutrition over the past decades have propelled research areas toward testing multiple aspects of YML to exploit them better as animal feed sources. This review aims to summarize various approaches that could be exploited to maximize the nutritional values of YML as an animal feed ingredient. In addition, YML has the potential to be used as an antimicrobial or bioactive agent to improve animal health and immune function in production animals. The dynamics of the nutritional profile of YML can be influenced by multiple factors and should be taken into account when attempting to optimize the nutrient contents of YML as an animal feed ingredient. Specifically, the use of novel land-based and aquatic feeding resources, probiotics, and the exploitation of larval gut microbiomes as novel strategies can assist to maximize the nutritional potential of YML. Selection of relevant feed supplies, optimization of ambient conditions, the introduction of novel genetic selection procedures, and implementation of effective post-harvest processing may be required in the future to commercialize mealworm production. Furthermore, the use of appropriate agricultural practices and technological improvements within the mealworm production sector should be aimed at achieving both economic and environmental sustainability. The issues highlighted in this review could pave the way for future approaches to improve the nutritional value of YML.

Evaluation of the value of combined detection of tumor markers CA724,carcinoembryonic antigen,CA242,and CA19-9 in gastric cancer

BACKGROUND Gastric cancer is a global health concern that poses a significant threat to human well-being.AIM To detecting serum changes in carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA),carbohydrate antigens(CA)724,CA242,and CA19-9 expression among patients with gastric cancer.METHODS Eighty patients diagnosed with gastric cancer between January 2020 and January 2023 were included in the observation group,while 80 patients with benign gastric diseases were included in the control group.Both groups were tested for tumor markers(CA724,CEA,CA242,and CA19-9].Tumor marker indicators(CA724,CEA,CA242,and CA19-9)were compared between the two groups,assessing positive rates of tumor markers across various stages in the observation group.Additionally,single and combined detection of various tumor markers were examined.RESULTS The sensitivity,specificity,accuracy,positive predictive value,and negative predictive value observed for the combined detection of CA724,CEA,CA242,and CA19-9 were higher than those of CA724,CEA,CA242,and CA19-9 individually.Therefore,the combined detection of CA724,CEA,CA242,and CA19-9 has a high diagnostic accuracy and could reduce the occurrence of missed or misdiagnosed cases,facilitating the early diagnosis and treatment of patients.CONCLUSION CA724,CEA,CA242,and CA19-9 serum levels in gastric cancer patients significantly surpassed those in non-gastric cancer patients(P<0.05).Their combined detection can improve the diagnostic accuracy for gastric cancer,warranting clinical promotion.

Predictive value of diaphragm ultrasound for mechanical ventilation outcome in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(AECOPD)is often combined with respiratory failure,which increases the patient's morbidity and mortality.Diaphragm ultrasound(DUS)has developed rapidly in the field of critical care in recent years.Studies with DUS monitoring diaphragm-related rapid shallow breathing index have demonstrated important results in guiding intensive care unit patients out of the ventilator.Early prediction of the indications for withdrawal of non-invasive ventilator and early evaluation of patients to avoid or reduce disease progression are very important.AIM To explore the predictive value of DUS indexes for non-invasive ventilation outcome in patients with AECOPD.METHODS Ninety-four patients with AECOPD who received mechanical ventilation in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed,and they were divided into a successful ventilation group(68 cases)and a failed ventilation group(26 cases)according to the outcome of ventilation.The clinical data of patients with successful and failed noninvasive ventilation were compared,and the independent predictors of noninvasive ventilation outcomes in AECOPD patients were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.RESULTS There were no significant differences in gender,age,body mass index,complications,systolic pressure,heart rate,mean arterial pressure,respiratory rate,oxygen saturation,partial pressure of oxygen,oxygenation index,or time of inspiration between patients with successful and failed mechanical ventilation(P>0.05).The patients with successful noninvasive ventilation had shorter hospital stays and lower partial pressure of carbon dioxide(PaCO_(2))than those with failed treatment,while potential of hydrogen(pH),diaphragm thickening fraction(DTF),diaphragm activity,and diaphragm movement time were significantly higher than those with failed treatment(P<0.05).pH[odds ratio(OR)=0.005,P<0.05],PaCO_(2)(OR=0.430,P<0.05),and DTF(OR=0.570,P<0.05)were identified to be independent factors influencing the outcome of mechanical ventilation in AECOPD patients.CONCLUSION The DUS index DTF can better predict the outcome of non-invasive ventilation in AECOPD patients.

Diagnostic value of serum vascular endothelial growth factor and interleukin-17 in primary hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND Despite significant advancements in the medical treatment of primary hepato-cellular carcinoma(PHC)in recent years,enhancing therapeutic effects and im-proving prognosis remain substantial challenges worldwide.AIM To investigate the expression levels of serum vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)and interleukin(IL)-17 in patients with PHC and evaluate their diagnostic value while exploring their relationship with patients’clinical characteristics.METHODS The study included 50 patients with confirmed PHC who visited Wuhan Han-yang Hospital from January 2021 to January 2022,and 50 healthy individuals from the same period served as the control group.Serum VEGF and IL-17 levels in both groups were measured by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay,and their diagnostic value was assessed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Pearson correlation analysis was performed to examine the relationship between serum VEGF and IL-17 levels.Pathological data of the PHC patients were analyzed to determine the relationship between serum VEGF and IL-17 levels and pathological characteristics.RESULTS Serum VEGF and IL-17 levels were significantly higher in the study group com-pared to the control group(P<0.05).No significant association was observed between serum VEGF and IL-17 levels and gender,age,combined cirrhosis,tumor diameter,or degree of differentiation(P>0.05).However,there was a significant relationship between clinical TNM stage,tumor metastasis,and serum VEGF and IL-17 levels(P<0.05).Correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between serum VEGF and IL-17(P<0.05).ROC analysis demonstrated that both serum VEGF and IL-17 had good diagnostic efficacy for PHC.CONCLUSION Serum VEGF and IL-17 levels were significantly higher in PHC patients compared to healthy individuals.Their levels were closely related to pathological features such as tumor metastasis and clinical TNM stage,and there was a significant positive correlation between VEGF and IL-17.These biomarkers may serve as valuable reference in-dicators for the early diagnosis and treatment guidance of PHC.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Flower Border Application Value of New and Superior Plants in Hefei Area

An analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was employed to assess the applicability of 18 new and superior varieties of flowers in Hefei City flower border applications.A total of 12 indicators were selected from three distinct aspects of adaptability,ornamental characteristics and use traits,in order to establish a comprehensive evaluation model.The results demonstrate that grade I(J≥2.685)exhibits excellent application value,encompassing six species of plants,such asHydrangeamacrophylla‘Endless Summer’;grade II(2.684≤J≤2.420)is also of notable application value,encompassing five species of plants,such asCallistemonrigidus;grade III(2.419≤J≤2.615)is of average application value,including five species of plants,such asCrocosmiacrocosmiflora;grade IV(J≤2.16)is of relatively poor application value.The evaluation results may be utilized as a theoretical reference for the promotion of new and superior varieties in the flower border of Hefei.

Dirac method for nonlinear and non-homogenous boundary value problems of plates

The boundary value problem plays a crucial role in the analytical investigation of continuum dynamics. In this paper, an analytical method based on the Dirac operator to solve the nonlinear and non-homogeneous boundary value problem of rectangular plates is proposed. The key concept behind this method is to transform the nonlinear or non-homogeneous part on the boundary into a lateral force within the governing function by the Dirac operator, which linearizes and homogenizes the original boundary, allowing one to employ the modal superposition method for obtaining solutions to reconstructive governing equations. Once projected into the modal space, the harmonic balance method(HBM) is utilized to solve coupled ordinary differential equations(ODEs)of truncated systems with nonlinearity. To validate the convergence and accuracy of the proposed Dirac method, the results of typical examples, involving nonlinearly restricted boundaries, moment excitation, and displacement excitation, are compared with those of the differential quadrature element method(DQEM). The results demonstrate that when dealing with nonlinear boundaries, the Dirac method exhibits more excellent accuracy and convergence compared with the DQEM. However, when facing displacement excitation, there exist some discrepancies between the proposed approach and simulations;nevertheless, the proposed method still accurately predicts resonant frequencies while being uniquely capable of handling nonuniform displacement excitations. Overall, this methodology offers a convenient way for addressing nonlinear and non-homogenous plate boundaries.

Dynamical distribution of continuous service time model involving non-Maxwellian collision kernel and value functions

The distribution of continuous service time in call centers is investigated.A non-Maxwellian collision kernel combining two different value functions in the interaction rule are used to describe the evolution of continuous service time,respectively.Using the statistical mechanical and asymptotic limit methods,Fokker–Planck equations are derived from the corresponding Boltzmann-type equations with non-Maxwellian collision kernels.The steady-state solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation are obtained in exact form.Numerical experiments are provided to support our results under different parameters.

CAUCHY TYPE INTEGRALS AND A BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM IN A COMPLEX CLIFFORD ANALYSIS

Clifford analysis is an important branch of modern analysis;it has a very important theoretical significance and application value,and its conclusions can be applied to the Maxwell equation,Yang-Mill field theory,quantum mechanics and value problems.In this paper,we first give the definition of a quasi-Cauchy type integral in complex Clifford analysis,and get the Plemelj formula for it.Second,we discuss the H?lder continuity for the Cauchy-type integral operators with values in a complex Clifford algebra.Finally,we prove the existence of solutions for a class of linear boundary value problems and give the integral representation for the solution.

Spatio-temporal evolution and topographic gradient effect of land use and ecosystem service value in the Lhasa River Basin

The Lhasa River Basin forms an essential human settlement area in the southern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.This study employed ecosystem service value(ESV)evaluation model,terrain gradient grading,and Geodetector to analyze land use and ESV in the Lhasa River Basin from 1985 to 2020.The findings reveal that:(1)From 1985 to 2020,grassland was the dominant land use.There was a trend of grassland reduction and the expansion of other land types.(2)ESV has increased over the research period(with a total increase of 0.84%),with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest.Grassland contributed the most to ESV,and climate regulation and hydrological regulation were the ecosystem services that contribute the most to ESV.(3)Natural factors like NDVI and altitude,as well as economic factors like population density and distance from roads,influenced the spatial differentiation of ESV,the explanatory power of NDVI reached up to 0.47.The interaction between factors had a greater impact than individual factors.These research results can provide theoretical support for national spatial planning and ecological environment protection in the Lhasa River Basin and other similar areas.

Missing Value Imputation for Radar-Derived Time-Series Tracks of Aerial Targets Based on Improved Self-Attention-Based Network

The frequent missing values in radar-derived time-series tracks of aerial targets(RTT-AT)lead to significant challenges in subsequent data-driven tasks.However,the majority of imputation research focuses on random missing(RM)that differs significantly from common missing patterns of RTT-AT.The method for solving the RM may experience performance degradation or failure when applied to RTT-AT imputation.Conventional autoregressive deep learning methods are prone to error accumulation and long-term dependency loss.In this paper,a non-autoregressive imputation model that addresses the issue of missing value imputation for two common missing patterns in RTT-AT is proposed.Our model consists of two probabilistic sparse diagonal masking self-attention(PSDMSA)units and a weight fusion unit.It learns missing values by combining the representations outputted by the two units,aiming to minimize the difference between the missing values and their actual values.The PSDMSA units effectively capture temporal dependencies and attribute correlations between time steps,improving imputation quality.The weight fusion unit automatically updates the weights of the output representations from the two units to obtain a more accurate final representation.The experimental results indicate that,despite varying missing rates in the two missing patterns,our model consistently outperforms other methods in imputation performance and exhibits a low frequency of deviations in estimates for specific missing entries.Compared to the state-of-the-art autoregressive deep learning imputation model Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series(BRITS),our proposed model reduces mean absolute error(MAE)by 31%~50%.Additionally,the model attains a training speed that is 4 to 8 times faster when compared to both BRITS and a standard Transformer model when trained on the same dataset.Finally,the findings from the ablation experiments demonstrate that the PSDMSA,the weight fusion unit,cascade network design,and imputation loss enhance imputation performance and confirm the efficacy of our design.

Effect of FeSi additive in dual-chamber sample cup on thermal analysis characteristic values and vermiculating rate of compacted graphite iron

Thermal analysis plays a key role in the online inspection of molten iron quality.Different solidification process of molten iron can be reflected by thermal analysis curves,and silicon is one of important elements affecting the solidification of molten iron.In this study,FeSi75 was added in one chamber of the dual-chamber sample cup,and the influences of FeSi75 additive on the characteristic values of thermal analysis curves and vermiculating rate were investigated.The results show that with the increase of FeSi75,the start temperature of austenite formation TALfirstly decreases and then increases,but the start temperature of eutectic growth TSEF,the lowest eutectic temperature TEU,temperature at maximum eutectic reaction rate TEM,and highest eutectic temperature TERkeep always an increase.The temperature at final solidification point TEShas little change.The FeSi75 additive has different influences on the vermiculating rate of molten iron with different vermiculation,and the vermiculating rate increases for lower vermiculation molten iron while decreases for higher one.According to the thermal analysis curves obtained by a dual-chamber sample cup with 0.30wt.%FeSi75 additive in one chamber,the vermiculating rate of molten iron can be evaluated by comparing the characteristic values of these curves.The time differenceΔtERcorresponding to the highest eutectic temperature TERhas a closer relationship with the vermiculating rate,and a parabolic regression curve between the time differenceΔtERand vermiculating rateηhas been obtained within the range of 65%to 95%,which is suitable for the qualified melt.

Value Iteration-Based Cooperative Adaptive Optimal Control for Multi-Player Differential Games With Incomplete Information

This paper presents a novel cooperative value iteration(VI)-based adaptive dynamic programming method for multi-player differential game models with a convergence proof.The players are divided into two groups in the learning process and adapt their policies sequentially.Our method removes the dependence of admissible initial policies,which is one of the main drawbacks of the PI-based frameworks.Furthermore,this algorithm enables the players to adapt their control policies without full knowledge of others’ system parameters or control laws.The efficacy of our method is illustrated by three examples.

Refraction difference value variations in children and adolescents with different refractive errors

AIM:To evaluate the refraction difference value(RDV)variations in children and adolescents with different refractive errors and analyze its correlation with refractive development.METHODS:Participants aged 4-16y with different refractive statuses(hyperopia,emmetropia,myopia)underwent comprehensive eye examinations,including spherical equivalent(SE)refraction,axial length(AL),total RDV(TRDV),and RDVs at various eccentricities(0°-15°,15°-30°,30°-45°)and quadrants(inferior,superior,nasal,temporal).Statistical analysis involved one-way ANOVA for group comparisons and Pearson correlation for examining relationships between SE/AL and RDVs.Paired t-tests compared quadrant-specific RDVs within groups.RESULTS:Significant difference was found in TRDV(P<0.001),RDV15°-30°(P=0.033),RDV30°-45°(P<0.001),RDV-inferior(RDV-I,P<0.001)and RDV-temporal(RDV-T,P<0.001)among hyperopia,emmetropia and myopia group.Pearson correlation analysis revealed a negative correlation of SE with TRDV(P=0.001),RDV30°-45°(P=0.004),RDV-I(P=0.047),and RDV-T(P<0.001).The differences between RDV-superior(RDV-S)and RDV-I were statistically significant in all groups(P<0.001 for all)and between RDV-T and RDV-nasal(RDV-N)were statistically significant in hyperopia group(P<0.001).Within the premyopic group,the analysis revealed a negative correlation of SE with RDV-I(P=0.009).Pearson correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation of AL with TRDV(P=0.036),RDV15°-30°(P=0.004),RDV30°-45°(P<0.001),RDV-S(P=0.003),RDV-I(P<0.001),RDV-T(P<0.001),RDV-N(P=0.022),while revealed a negative correlation of AL with RDV0-15°(P=0.018).CONCLUSION:Our study indicates TRDV,RDV30°-45°,RDV-I,RDV-T may relate to refractive development,and a negative correlation between SE and RDV-I in pre-myopic children.

Pan-immune-inflammation value as a prognostic biomarker for colon cancer and its variation by primary tumor location

BACKGROUND A growing body of research indicates significant differences between left-sided colon cancers(LCC)and right-sided colon cancers(RCC).Pan-immune-inflammation value(PIV)is a systemic immune response marker that can predict the prognosis of patients with colon cancer.However,the specific distinction between PIV of LCC and RCC remains unclear.AIM To investigate the prognostic and clinical significance of PIV in LCC and RCC patients.METHODS This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 1510 patients with colon cancer,comprising 801 with LCC and 709 with RCC.We used generalized lifting regression analysis to evaluate the relative impact of PIV on disease-free survival(DFS)in these patients.Kaplan-Meier analysis,as well as univariate and multivariate analyses,were used to examine the risk factors for DFS.The correlation between PIV and the clinical characteristics was statistically analyzed in these patients.RESULTS A total of 1510 patients{872 female patients(58%);median age 63 years[interquartile ranges(IQR):54-71];patients with LCC 801(53%);median follow-up 44.17 months(IQR 29.67-62.32)}were identified.PIV was significantly higher in patients with RCC[median(IQR):214.34(121.78-386.72)vs 175.87(111.92-286.84),P<0.001].After propensity score matching,no difference in PIV was observed between patients with LCC and RCC[median(IQR):182.42(111.88-297.65)vs 189.45(109.44-316.02);P=0.987].PIV thresholds for DFS were 227.84 in LCC and 145.99 in RCC.High PIV(>227.84)was associated with worse DFS in LCC[PIV-high:Adjusted hazard ratio(aHR)=2.39;95%confidence interval:1.70-3.38;P<0.001]but not in RCC(PIV-high:aHR=0.72;95%confidence interval:0.48-1.08;P=0.114).CONCLUSION These findings suggest that PIV may predict recurrence in patients with LCC but not RCC,underscoring the importance of tumor location when using PIV as a colon cancer biomarker.

Decision Making Based on Valued Fuzzy Superhypergraphs

This paper explores the defects in fuzzy (hyper) graphs (as complex (hyper) networks) and extends the fuzzy(hyper) graphs to fuzzy (quasi) superhypergraphs as a new concept.We have modeled the fuzzy superhypergraphsas complex superhypernetworks in order to make a relation between labeled objects in the form of details andgeneralities. Indeed, the structure of fuzzy (quasi) superhypergraphs collects groups of labeled objects and analyzesthem in the form of the part to part of objects, the part of objects to the whole group of objects, and the whole tothe whole group of objects at the same time.We have investigated the properties of fuzzy (quasi) superhypergraphsbased on any positive real number as valued fuzzy (quasi) superhypergraphs, considering the complement of valuedfuzzy (quasi) superhypergraphs, the notation of isomorphism of valued fuzzy (quasi) superhypergraphs based onthe permutations, and we have presented the isomorphic conditions of (self complemented) valued fuzzy (quasi)superhypergraphs. The concept of impact membership value of fuzzy (quasi) superhypergraphs is introducedin this study and it is applied in designing the real problem in the real world. Finally, the problem of businesssuperhypernetworks is presented as an application of fuzzy valued quasi superhypergraphs in the real world.

Wavelet Multi-Resolution Interpolation Galerkin Method for Linear Singularly Perturbed Boundary Value Problems

In this study,a wavelet multi-resolution interpolation Galerkin method(WMIGM)is proposed to solve linear singularly perturbed boundary value problems.Unlike conventional wavelet schemes,the proposed algorithm can be readily extended to special node generation techniques,such as the Shishkin node.Such a wavelet method allows a high degree of local refinement of the nodal distribution to efficiently capture localized steep gradients.All the shape functions possess the Kronecker delta property,making the imposition of boundary conditions as easy as that in the finite element method.Four numerical examples are studied to demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposedwavelet method.The results showthat the use ofmodified Shishkin nodes can significantly reduce numerical oscillation near the boundary layer.Compared with many other methods,the proposed method possesses satisfactory accuracy and efficiency.The theoretical and numerical results demonstrate that the order of theε-uniform convergence of this wavelet method can reach 5.

Effect of Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) on Growth, Mineral Composition, and Nutritional Value of Wheat & Lentil Sprouts

Sprouts are ready-to-eat and are recognized worldwide as functional components of the human diet.Recent advances in innovative agricultural techniques could enable an increase in the production of healthy food.The use of light-emitting diode(LED)in indoor agricultural production could alter the biological feedback loop,increasing the functional benefits of plant foods such as wheat and lentil sprouts and promoting the bioavailability of nutrients.The effects of white(W),red(R),and blue(B)light were investigated on the growth parameters and nutritional value of wheat and lentil sprouts.In the laboratory,seeds were sown under three different LED treat-ments:white,red,and blue light,while normal incandescent light served as a control.Percentage seed germina-tion improved by 18.34%and 12.67%for wheat and 18.34%and 12.67%for lentil sprouts under LED treatments R and B,respectively.An increase in total soluble protein and sugar by 33.4%and 9.23%in wheat and by 31.5%and 5.87%in lentils was observed under the R LED treatment.Vitamin C concentrations in wheat and lentils were significantly increased by R LED compared to all other treatments.Other parameters,including potassium and sodium concentrations,were significantly increased under red and blue light compared to the control;white light,on the other hand,significantly decreased all these parameters.According to the experimental data,red and blue LED light could be beneficial in the production of functional wheat and lentil sprouts with high nutrient concentrations.

Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.