[Objective] The paper was to establish prediction model for Dendrolimus punctatus Walker in coastal shelterbeh in Zhejiang Province of China. [ Method] Using the principles and methods of SAS software, and according t...[Objective] The paper was to establish prediction model for Dendrolimus punctatus Walker in coastal shelterbeh in Zhejiang Province of China. [ Method] Using the principles and methods of SAS software, and according to the correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, we selected the relevant meteorological factors from April 1982 to March 2006 as the variables and the population density of D. punctatus from 1983 to 2006 as the dependent variables, to establish the prediction model between insect population density and meteorological factors for D. punctatas in coastal shelterbelt. [ Result] By fitting test, the his- torical compliance rate of the equation was above 85%. When the related data from 2007 to 2011 were used for prediction test, the occurrence condition had small relative error with prediction results except the years seriously affected by natural disasters. [ Conclusion] The paper provides certain reference for pest control against D. punctatus in coastal shelterbelt.展开更多
[ Objective ] The paper was to study the spatial distribution of Endoclyta signifer Walker Larva. [ Method] The larvae distribution in eucalyptus planta- tion in Beiliu and Luchuan counties of Guangxi province were in...[ Objective ] The paper was to study the spatial distribution of Endoclyta signifer Walker Larva. [ Method] The larvae distribution in eucalyptus planta- tion in Beiliu and Luchuan counties of Guangxi province were investigated. Ten standard plots were set, and the spatial distribution pattern of E. signifer larva was confirmed using six different aggregation indexes and regression model analysis method. [ Result] The larvae mainly distributed in the base of tnmk lower than 1 m, and its spatial distribution pattern was mainly aggregated distribution, which was caused by the enviromnental factors. The optimum sampling formula of E. signifer larva under different population densities was n = t2 （ 1.1/m ＋ 0. 674 4）/D2, and limited sequential sampling decision model was T＇0（n）, T＇0（n） = n ＋ 1. 332√n（ m0 = 1 ）. [ Conclusion] The result provided scientific basis for sampling and forecasting of E. signifier.展开更多
Our aim in the present article is to introduce and study new types of retractions of closed flat Robertson-Walker W4 model. Types of the deformation retract of closed flat Robertson-Walker W4 model are obtained. The r...Our aim in the present article is to introduce and study new types of retractions of closed flat Robertson-Walker W4 model. Types of the deformation retract of closed flat Robertson-Walker W4 model are obtained. The relations between the retraction and the deformation retract of curves in W4 model are deduced. Types of minimal retractions of curves in W4 model are also presented. Also, the isometric and topological folding in each case and the relation between the deformation retracts after and before folding have been obtained. New types of homotopy maps are deduced. New types of conditional folding are presented. Some commutative diagrams are obtained.展开更多
Based on the simulations of 31 global models in CMIP5, the performance of the models in simulating the Hadley and Walker circulations is evaluated. In addition, their change in intensity by the end of the 21st century...Based on the simulations of 31 global models in CMIP5, the performance of the models in simulating the Hadley and Walker circulations is evaluated. In addition, their change in intensity by the end of the 21st century （2080-2099） under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, relative to 1986-2005, is analyzed from the perspective of 200 hPa velocity potential. Validation shows good performance of the individual CMIP5 models and the multi-model ensemble mean （MME） in re- producing the meridional （zonal） structure and magnitude of Hadley （Walker） circulation. The MME can also capture the observed strengthening tendency of the winter Hadley circulation and weakening tendency of the Walker circulation. Such secular trends can be simulated by 39% and 74% of the models, respectively. The MME projection indicates that the winter Hadley circulation and the Walker circulation will weaken under both scenarios by the end of the 21st century. The weak- ening amplitude is larger under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, due to stronger external forcing. The majority of the CMIP5 models show the same projection as the MME. However, for the summer Hadley circulation, the MME shows little change under RCP4.5 and large intermodel spread is apparent. Around half of the models project an increase, and the other half project a decrease. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the MME and 65% of the models project a weakening of the summer southern Hadley circulation.展开更多
基金Supported by Key Agriculture Project in Major Scientific and Technological Special of Science and Technology Department of Zhejiang Province(2010C12029)
文摘[Objective] The paper was to establish prediction model for Dendrolimus punctatus Walker in coastal shelterbeh in Zhejiang Province of China. [ Method] Using the principles and methods of SAS software, and according to the correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, we selected the relevant meteorological factors from April 1982 to March 2006 as the variables and the population density of D. punctatus from 1983 to 2006 as the dependent variables, to establish the prediction model between insect population density and meteorological factors for D. punctatas in coastal shelterbelt. [ Result] By fitting test, the his- torical compliance rate of the equation was above 85%. When the related data from 2007 to 2011 were used for prediction test, the occurrence condition had small relative error with prediction results except the years seriously affected by natural disasters. [ Conclusion] The paper provides certain reference for pest control against D. punctatus in coastal shelterbelt.
基金Supported by Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi Province "OccurrenceMechanism of Major Pests and Diseases in Eucalypt Plantations"(GKZ0832093)~~
文摘[ Objective ] The paper was to study the spatial distribution of Endoclyta signifer Walker Larva. [ Method] The larvae distribution in eucalyptus planta- tion in Beiliu and Luchuan counties of Guangxi province were investigated. Ten standard plots were set, and the spatial distribution pattern of E. signifer larva was confirmed using six different aggregation indexes and regression model analysis method. [ Result] The larvae mainly distributed in the base of tnmk lower than 1 m, and its spatial distribution pattern was mainly aggregated distribution, which was caused by the enviromnental factors. The optimum sampling formula of E. signifer larva under different population densities was n = t2 （ 1.1/m ＋ 0. 674 4）/D2, and limited sequential sampling decision model was T＇0（n）, T＇0（n） = n ＋ 1. 332√n（ m0 = 1 ）. [ Conclusion] The result provided scientific basis for sampling and forecasting of E. signifier.
文摘Our aim in the present article is to introduce and study new types of retractions of closed flat Robertson-Walker W4 model. Types of the deformation retract of closed flat Robertson-Walker W4 model are obtained. The relations between the retraction and the deformation retract of curves in W4 model are deduced. Types of minimal retractions of curves in W4 model are also presented. Also, the isometric and topological folding in each case and the relation between the deformation retracts after and before folding have been obtained. New types of homotopy maps are deduced. New types of conditional folding are presented. Some commutative diagrams are obtained.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 41275078)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306026)the National Science & Technology Pillar Program (Grant No. 2012BAC20B05) of China
文摘Based on the simulations of 31 global models in CMIP5, the performance of the models in simulating the Hadley and Walker circulations is evaluated. In addition, their change in intensity by the end of the 21st century （2080-2099） under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, relative to 1986-2005, is analyzed from the perspective of 200 hPa velocity potential. Validation shows good performance of the individual CMIP5 models and the multi-model ensemble mean （MME） in re- producing the meridional （zonal） structure and magnitude of Hadley （Walker） circulation. The MME can also capture the observed strengthening tendency of the winter Hadley circulation and weakening tendency of the Walker circulation. Such secular trends can be simulated by 39% and 74% of the models, respectively. The MME projection indicates that the winter Hadley circulation and the Walker circulation will weaken under both scenarios by the end of the 21st century. The weak- ening amplitude is larger under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, due to stronger external forcing. The majority of the CMIP5 models show the same projection as the MME. However, for the summer Hadley circulation, the MME shows little change under RCP4.5 and large intermodel spread is apparent. Around half of the models project an increase, and the other half project a decrease. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the MME and 65% of the models project a weakening of the summer southern Hadley circulation.
