Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Real Time Data Analysis of West Rapti River Basin of Nepal

Floods are the most widespread climate-related hazards in the world, and they impact more people globally than any other type of natural disasters. It causes over one third of the total economic loss from natural catastrophes and is responsible for two thirds of people affected by natural disasters. On the other hand, studies and analysis have shown that damage reductions due to forecasts improvements can range from a few percentage points to as much as 35% of annual flood damages. About 300 people lose their lives each year due to floods and landslides in Nepal with property damage exceeding 626 million NPR on average. The West Rapti River basin is one of the most flood prone river basins in Nepal. The real-time flood early warning system together with the development of water management and flood protection schemes plays a crucial role in reducing the loss of lives and properties and in overall development of the basin. The non-structural mitigating measure places people away from flood. This method is designed to reduce the impact of flooding to society and economy. This paper presents an overview of flood problems in the West Rapti River basin, causes and consequences of recent floods and the applicability and effectiveness of the real time data to flood early warning in Nepal.

A Study on the Early Warning Time of Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

The paper collects the records by the Fujian Digital Seismic Network of 40 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan with M_S≥5.0 from 1999 to 2013,analyzes the seismic phase(Pn,Sn phase)characteristics and travel-time rules,determines travel-time models and develops a seismic phase travel-time equation based on the two-step fitting algorithm.With the deduction of processing time and network delay time,this method can provide an accurate estimation of early warning time of Taiwan earthquakes for the Fujian region,and has been officially employed in the earthquake early warning system of Fujian Province.

DevelopmentofShanghaiAutomaticWeatherStationsDataAnalysisandApplicationSystemBasedonGIS

基于ArcSDE＋SQL Server2005的空间数据管理方式，选择ArcGIS Engine及Delphi的组件式二次开发方式，设计及开发了上海市自动站资料分析应用系统。实现了对自动站资料的实时更新入库、查询检索、时空分布显示、气象灾害预警等功能，为预报人员提供了简便直观的气象数据可视化分析平台．大大提高了气象服务工作的效率。

Real-Time Warning System of Regional Landslides Supported by WEGISB and Its Application in Typhoon Rananim,Zhejiang Province,China

As one of the provinces of highest economic growth in coastal China,Zhejiang Province is experiencing serious geological disasters during the past development of economy.The main kinds of geo-hazards include landslides,rock falls and debris-flows in Zhejiang Province,which are mainly induced by intensive rainfall during typhoon season or by long-term rainfall from May to June every year.Thus,

Typical Travel Events and the Reversal of Modern Image of China

In order to open up the Chinese market,Britain sent two missions to China in 1791 and 1816.The most powerful colonial empire in the world met the most powerful feudal empire in the world.The two sides led the negotiations and exchanges with the concepts of "tribute" and "equal diplomacy",and the failure of the missions of Macartney and Amherst to China was inevitable.The travel texts completed by the members of the mission recorded the process of travel to China and their views on China in detail.Two typical travel events in China completely reversed the western image of China.

The Action Logic of China's Human Rights Development in Three Dimensions

Building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is a milestone in China’s human rights development.It clearly reflects the profound action logic of the CpC leading the Chinese people to fight for and realize the protection of rights.At the level of values,the logic of rights for China’s human rights development is mainly manifested in four aspects:prioritizing the right to subsistence and the right to development in the rights system;importance given to citizenship and democracy by the goal of building a moderately prosperously society in all respects;advocating the right to unity and the right to participate in the common cause of the Chinese people;implementing the responsibility of leaders and managers to safeguard human rights.At the practical level,the protection logic of China’s human rights development mainly includes four links:firstly,gradual upgrading is a reliable procedure for the coordination of the human rights system;secondly,the rule of law is a solid foundation for the steady development of human rights;thirdly,the courage to explore is the important factor for the success of human rights practice;lastly,seeking common ground while shelving differences is the key consensus for mutual learning among human rights civilizations.In terms of time and space,China’s human rights development has achieved world-recognized success,laying a solid foundation for this endeavor to proceed,and providing experience and reference for people all over the world to pursue common human rights ideals.

Recognizing Early Warning Signs (EWS) in Patients Is Critically Important

Introduction: Monitoring vital signs is a basic indicator of a patient’s health status and allows prompt detection of delayed recovery or adverse effects and early intervention. Patients with adverse events during hospitalization often display clinical decline for several hours before the event is observed. Non-critical care Nurses’ inconsistent recognition and response to patient deterioration lead to an increase in the length of hospital stay, unexpected admissions to the ICU, and increased morbidity and mortality. Aim: The study aimed to assess the factors that facilitate or impede the detection of early warning signs among adult patients hospitalized in tertiary care settings. Training should be provided to improve nurses’ knowledge, practice and attitude toward early warning signs of deteriorating patients leading to enhanced clinical judgment, skills and decision-making in addressing alerts. Methodology: A literature search was carried out in various databases;these were Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINHAL), Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Sage. The search area was narrowed from 2017 to 2022. The keywords used were “prevalence” AND “unplanned ICU admission”, “the importance of early warning signs” “outcome failure in rescue” “patient deterioration, communication” “improvement in early detection” AND “patient outcome admission” AND “early warning signs” AND “Pakistan”. After the analysis process, around 33 articles that met the inclusion criteria and were most relevant to the scope and context of the current study were considered. Conclusion: Most of the studies had reviewed literature in a qualitative retrospective observational study, content analysis, mixed method, and quasi-experimental study. The literature review identified that long hours of shift, nurse staffing levels, missed vital signs, lack of nursing training and education, and communication impact nurses’ ability to recognize and respond to early warning signs.

近地小行星材料特性对激光烧蚀驱动效率的影响试验分析

基于激光驱动效果和小行星材料特性密切相关的问题,针对脉冲激光对近地小行星物质的烧蚀驱动效率开展了试验研究,选用不同材质、孔隙率的类小行星试验样品,开展了冲量耦合规律测量试验。试验结果表明:在脉冲激光烧蚀的作用下,C型小行星比S型小行星具有更高的冲量耦合效率;随着小行星孔隙率的升高,冲量耦合效率降低,激光烧蚀驱动的效率下降。此外,还对激光烧蚀类小行星物质质量变化的规律进行试验,试验结果表明存在使得小行星质量烧蚀效率最佳的激光功率密度。对于需长期预警时间的威胁小行星,在烧蚀驱动偏转其轨道的同时,以最快的速率减少其质量,可进一步提升防御效率,实现防御的目的。

基于LSTM网络的单台仪器地震烈度预测模型

烈度是地震预警系统的关键产出.如何实现快速预测目标场址的地震烈度是地震预警方法技术研究中的核心问题.本文提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)的单台仪器地震烈度的预测模型(LSTM-Ⅰ).该模型以一个台站观测到地震动参数的时间序列特征为输入,实现动态预测该台站可能遭受的最大烈度.选取了日本K-NET台网记录的102次地震的5103条强震加速度记录训练了神经网络,利用89次地震的3781条数据检验了模型的泛化能力.利用准确率、漏报率以及误报率三个评价指标评价了LSTM-Ⅰ模型的性能.结果表明,当采用P波触发后3 s的序列进行预测时,模型出现漏报的概率为46.78%,出现误报的概率为1.25%;当采用P波触发后10 s的序列进行预测时,模型出现漏报的概率大幅降低到17.6%,出现误报的概率降低到1.14%.结果表明LSTM-Ⅰ模型很好把握住了时间序列中蕴含的特征.进一步基于LSTM-Ⅰ模型评估了Ⅵ度下台站所能提供的预警时间.本文模型能够提供的预警时间与P-S波到时差接近,说明LSTM-Ⅰ模型具有较高的时效性.

基于激光脉冲ToF技术的带电作业安全监测预警装置

由于高强度电场、暂态电击以及作业过程中存在不稳定因素,带电作业工作存在危险,因此,本文设计一种基于激光脉冲ToF技术的带电作业实时安全监测预警装置。该装置通过ToF摄像机对工作人员周围的空间进行三维重建,以准确获取物体的坐标,实时监测物体与工作人员之间的距离,当工作人员身体与带电导线之间的距离超过限定值时,该装置将作出预警,提醒工作人员。

基于分形维数的高速铁路地震预警系统地震P波震相识别方法

为更好保障高速铁路的运营安全,高速铁路地震预警系统的实施十分必要。5级以下的小震事件占据地震事件的95%以上,提高高速铁路预警系统在小震震相识别的速度与精度能有效保障高铁安全运营。提出一种基于分形维数的地震震相识别算法,优化传统分形维数的计算方法,提高分形维数的计算速度。引入分形斜率曲线并划分为4个阶段,分析临界点的分形斜率特征,通过识别分形斜率极值时刻判断地震波精准到达时刻。提出的算法平均误差达到0.006 3 s,标准差达到0.043 8 s,满足高速铁路地震预警系统的时效性和准确度要求。

基于LSTM神经网络的现地烈度实时估算模型——以JMA烈度为例

如何快速并且准确估计目标场点烈度是地震预警中的关键问题。常用基于衰减关系的场点烈度估计和基于P波信息的现地烈度估计往往存在大震烈度低估的问题。本文提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(logn short-term memery,LSTM)的现地JMA烈度持续估计模型。该模型以现地观测地震动的能量、能量增长率、地震动卓越周期和震源距作为输入,以该点的最大仪器地震烈度为预测目标。选取了日本K-NET台网记录101次地震数据作为训练集,94次地震数据作为测试集,训练了现地烈度估算LSTM神经网络模型。结果表明:在采用3 s时窗长度的序列进行预测时,高估的比例为1.51%,低估的比例为4.00%;并且,随着时窗长度的增加,高估和低估的比例也在不断降低。模型对高烈度(大于等于4.5度)样本的预测时效性随震源距的增加而增加,对大震远场高烈度区域能提供20 s以上的预警时间。

考虑椭圆模型M_W≥5.5地震震源参数时域计算方法

为提高时效性,地震预警系统对震源的处理一般采用“点源”假定,不考虑震源尺度、破裂方向和震源区应力降,对震源参数简化处理使得预测地震动参数分布过于粗略,特别是对破坏性大震.本文应用日本地震(M_W≥5.5)强震动数据,考虑椭圆震源模型,提出了一种适用于中、大地震矩震级、拐角频率和应力降等震源参数时域计算方法,并分析了场地效应、地震动传播衰减、震源效应和滤波频带等因素对时域方法的影响.结果表明,该方法能利用P波信息快速获取震源能量释放过程,量化随破裂传播震源谱拐角频率、应力降和破裂面积的演化过程,为地震动预测提供更多重要的震源参数.

我国经济风险的实时监测:结构性拐点判别与预警信息辨识

实时监测经济风险、判别经济风险演化方向,对于促进高质量发展和高水平安全良性互动具有重要意义。本文运用马尔科夫区制转移偏正态分布模型甄别经济风险的结构变迁路径,并基于驱动结构分解、概率分布矩、概率密度函数以及尾部风险等多维视阈,有效辨析经济和金融状况对于经济风险的预警功能。研究发现,首先,随着经济增长概率分布的风险区制由低到高,经济增长增速预期降低、波动区间扩张以及下行风险升高。其次,经济风险在2012年存在显著的结构性拐点,在突变点后,偏度系数由正转负,经济步入长期的下行风险通道。此外,经济风险在2019年以及2021年前后存在阶段性拐点,短期内经济上行概率较高。然后,经济风险的动态演化路径表现出显著的“事件驱动”特征,在极端事件冲击下,经济下行风险有所增加。最后,经济和金融状况对于经济风险的预警功能存在明显的异质性,其中经济状况无法提供经济风险的预警信息,而金融状况能够灵敏地识别与捕捉经济增长的风险信息,且在经济高风险时期,金融状况的预警功能更为显著。

马克思自由时间理论与精神生活共同富裕的实现

在马克思的理论中,自由时间指不被生活资料的直接生产占去,劳动者可以自由支配、在其中自主活动,并能够用于自我发展的时间,其价值旨向在于促进人的自由全面发展。在资本主义社会中,劳动者深受工作日延长与劳动强度增加的双重挤压,不仅无法在劳动中享受自由,而且在资本的规训中丧失生命活动原有的丰富性。劳动时间与自由时间之间对立的扬弃关键在于资本主义生产方式的彻底变革。当前,精神生活共同富裕的实现需要有充裕的自由时间,并把这种自由时间的运用作为必要的基础。然而,由于工作与生活边界的模糊化,消费主义下的空虚与不安,加上不稳定的生活状态,自由时间量的增长与质的提升都面临挑战。在新时代新征程中,不断满足人民群众多样化、多层次、多方面的精神文化需求,需要坚持数字经济赋能社会高质量发展,以保障自由时间量的增长,将社会主义核心价值观融入日常生活,以实现自由时间质的丰盈,引导人民群众在体面劳动中提升精神境界,创造新的美好生活。

基于物联网的生猪健康状态监测及预警平台设计

生猪规模化养殖的疾病预防和控制是提升养殖效率和质量的重要保障。为了实现生猪健康状态的即时监测和预警,有效提升生猪养殖管理的数字化、智能化水平,本研究通过总结和借鉴现有研究成果和经验,结合实际需求和条件,设计了基于物联网的生猪健康状态监测及预警平台,实现分类别的用户管理、圈舍管理、状态监测、预警等功能,能够为相关人员提供针对性的防控建议。该平台的推广和应用,为生猪规模化养殖管理提供了一种低成本、高质量、智能化的解决方案。

有效-有为-有爱的三次分配制度构建——基于广东省居民收入差距拉大的分析

收入差距缩小是共同富裕的重要标志之一,优化收入分配制度是缩小收入差距的重要举措。通过分析2013—2022年广东省居民收入数据发现:行业收入差距明显;城乡居民可支配收入差距变大;珠三角与粤东西北地区的人均可支配收入差距进一步扩大。这种现象主要是受统一要素市场不成熟、转移支付与税制建设不足以及社会互助激励欠佳复合影响的结果。未来应促进要素自由流动和强化规则衔接来提高初次分配份额;延续提低-扩中-调高思路,分步骤优化再分配机制;弘扬广济善助的美德,加大第三次分配力度,最终形成有效-有为-有爱的三次分配制度。

稠油开采注汽锅炉在线综合预警关键技术

为了对工作在高温高压下注汽锅炉的各项运行参数进行在线准确监测和异常预警,本文在对稠油开采注汽锅炉工况参数进行采集、处理、分析的基础上,提出对注汽锅炉显性故障和隐性故障进行检测的方案。采用长期短期记忆神经网络,利用锅炉的时序数据对系统进行分析和建模,完成锅炉显性故障检测和预警,并通过预测数据的方式缓解锅炉大时滞的特性;利用深度异常检测技术,将无故障判别标准的数据进行隐性故障分析和预警。本文提出的综合预警方案对克拉玛依油田注汽锅炉进行了实验验证,预测误差仅有0.08%,同时异常检测范围也在设定值范围内。

预警护理对急性支气管炎患儿病情改善情况的影响研究

目的 分析预警护理对急性支气管炎患儿病情改善情况的影响。方法 选取2021年1月至2022年12月期间漯河医学高等专科学校第二附属医院收治的86例急性支气管炎患儿,在区间随机法辅助下开展组别划分,对照组(43例),接受常规护理;实验组(43例),在常规护理基础上实施预警护理。比较两组患儿症状消失时间、护理前后肺功能指标[用力肺活量(FVC)、呼气流量峰值(PEF)、一秒用力吸气容积(FEV1)]变化情况、急性支气管炎并发症发生情况及家属对护理服务的满意度。结果 实验组发热消失时间、咳嗽消失时间、喘息消失时间、肺部湿啰音消失时间均短于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P <0.05)。护理前,两组间肺功能指标比较,差异无统计学意义(P> 0.05);护理后,两组FVC、PEF、FEV1均明显上升,且实验组高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P <0.05)。实验组急性支气管炎并发症发生率(2.33%)低于对照组(16.28%),差异有统计学意义(P <0.05)。实验组满意度评分显著高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P <0.05)。结论 对急性支气管炎患儿实施预警护理有利于患儿康复与病情改善,在缩短症状消失时间、预防并发症、改善肺功能等方面均有突出体现,值得应用。