Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.

Carrying Capacity and Coupling Coordination of Water and Land Resources Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Areas: A Case Study of Yulin City, China

Quantitatively assessing the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems in arid and semi-arid areas is crucial for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.In this work,taking Yulin City in China as a case study and employing the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method,a modified model of coupling degree was developed to evaluate the car-rying capacity of water and land resources systems endowment and utilization,as well as their coupling coordination degree from 2013 to 2020.Our findings indicate that the water and land resources of Yulin are diminishing due to declines in agriculture,higher industrial water use,and wetland shrinkage.However,reallocating domestic water for ecological sustainability and reducing sloping farmland can mitigate this trend of decline.Temporally,as the coupling coordination between water and land resources system endowment in Yulin continuously improved,the coupling coordination between water and land resources system utilization first decreased and then in-creased with 2016 as the turning point.Spatially,the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems,the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system endowment,and the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system utilization in Yulin exhibited the same pattern of being higher in the six northern counties than in the six southern counties.Improving the water resources endowment is vital for the highly efficient use of water and land resources.

Operating mechanism and set pair analysis model of a sustainable water resources system

There is no altemative to the world＇s water resources, and their increasing scarcity is making it difficult to meet the world population＇s water needs. This paper presents a sustainable water resources system （SWRS） and analyzes the operating mechanism that makes it possible to evaluate the status of such a system. A SWRS can be described as a complex coupling system that integrates water resources, social, economic and ecological systems into a whole. The SWRS＇s operating mechanism is composed of dynamic, resistance and coordination components, and it interacts with and controls the system＇s evolution process. The study introduces a new approach, set pair analysis theory, to measure the state of a SWRS, and an evaluation index system is established using the subsystems and operating mechanism of a SWRS. The evaluation index system is separated into three levels （goal level, criteria level and index level） and divides the index standard into five grades. An evaluation model of the SWRS based on set pair analysis theory is constructed, and an example of SWRS evaluation in Shanghai is presented. The connection degrees of the index in the three levels are calculated, and the connection degree of the goal index is calculated to be 0.342, which classifies the city＇s SWRS condition as grade 2. The sustainable use of water resources in the region is determined to be at a relatively adequate level that meets the requirements of sustainable development.

Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty

The main characteristic of the water resources system(WRS)is its great complexity and uncertainty,which makes it highly desirable to carry out a risk analysis of the WRS.The natural environmental,social economic conditions as well as limitations of human cognitive ability are possible sources of the uncertainties that need to be taken into account in the risk analysis process.In this paper the inherent stochastic uncertainty and cognitive subjective uncertainty of the WRS are discussed first,from both objective and subjective perspectives.Then the quantitative characterization methods of risk analysis are introduced,including three criteria(reliability,resiliency and vulnerability)and five basic optimization models(the expected risk value model,conditional value at risk model,chance-constrained risk model,minimizing probability of risk events model,and the multi-objective optimization model).Finally,this paper focuses on the various methods of risk analysis under uncertainty,which are summarized as random,fuzzy and mixed methods.A more comprehensive risk analysis methodology for the WRS is proposed based on the comparison of the advantages,disadvantages and applicable conditions of these three methods.This paper provides a decision support of risk analysis for researchers,policy makers and stakeholders of the WRS.

Study on the Multi-dimension Evaluation Index System of Agricultural Water Resources in Liaoning Province

[Objective] This study aimed to establish the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province. [Method] Delphi method in conjunction with AHP method was adopted to establish the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province, and all the indexes in each hierarchy were ranked overall according to their weights. [Result] There were three hierarchies in this index system, totally including 21 indexes, among which water resource exploitation and utilization rate, sewage treatment rate and utilization of available water resources were the three crucial factors influencing the sustainable development. [Conclusion] This evaluation index system can reflect the true sustainable situation of the agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province.

A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Water shortage is one bottleneck that limits economic and social developments in arid and semi-arid areas.As the impacts of climate change and human disturbance intensify across time,uncertainties in both water resource supplies and demands increase in arid and semi-arid areas.Taking a typical arid region in China,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,as an example,water yield depth(WYD)and water utilization depth(WUD)from 2002 to 2018 were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model and socioeconomic data.The supply-demand relationships of water resources were analyzed using the ecosystem service indices including water supply-demand difference(WSDD)and water supply rate(WSR).The internal factors in changes of WYD and WUD were explored using the controlled variable method.The results show that the supplydemand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang were in a slight deficit,but the deficit was alleviated due to increased precipitation and decreased WUD of irrigation.WYD generally experienced an increasing trend,and significant increase mainly occurred in the oasis areas surrounding both the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin.WUD had a downward trend with a decline of 20.70%,especially in oasis areas.Water resources in most areas of Xinjiang were fully utilized and the utilization efficiency of water resources increased.The water yield module in the InVEST model was calibrated and validated using gauging station data in Xinjiang,and the result shows that the use of satellite-based water storage data helped to decrease the bias error of the InVEST model by 0.69×10^(8)m^(3).This study analyzed water resource supplies and demands from a perspective of ecosystem services,which expanded the scope of the application of ecosystem services and increased the research perspective of water resource evaluation.The results could provide guidance for water resource management such as spatial allocation and structural optimization of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas.

Evaluation of water resources conserved by forests in the Hani rice terraces system of Honghe County,Yunnan,China：an application of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

The Hani Rice Terraces System, based on gravity-flow irrigation, is one of the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS) pilot sites selected by FAO in 2010. The water resource plays an important role in the sustainable development of this system. The value of water conserved by the forest is influenced by natural, economic and social factors. In this paper, the water quality, per capita water resources, per capita GDP and population density are chosen as indices to construct an index system for a comprehensive evaluation of water resources value. The weights of these indices are 0.443, 0.31, 0.141 and 0.106 respectively, which are determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method. The water resources value has been assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the water resources value in the Hani Rice Terraces System is 4.25 RMB/m^3. Evaluating the value of water resources in the Hani Rice Terraces System can provide a reference for ecological compensation, for raising public awareness of the importance of protecting the system, and ultimately achieving its sustainable development.

Benefits Evaluation of Water Resources Used for Ecosystem in Shiyang River Basin of Gansu Province

Among the numerous inland river basins in the arid northwest China,Shiyang River basin is known for its most serious water shortage that constrains its social and economic developments and for some of the worst ecological and environmental deterioration in China.The research on the value of water resources used for ecosystem is the basis for reasonable allocation of water resources between users of ecosystem and economic system.In this paper the concept of dynamic value for the ecosystem services is proposed.A modified coefficient for the ecosystem service value per unit area is proposed according to the cover degrees of biomes combined with expert consultation.Based on the developmental stage coefficient and scarcity of ecological resources,a dynamic evaluation method is proposed.The theoretical formula and simple calculation formula of the sharing benefits coefficient and benefits per unit ecological water utilization are proposed.The result shows that the benefit of unit ecological water utilization in the lower reach was greater than that in the upper reach in the Shiyang River basin.

Discussion on Influencing Factors of Water Resources Environment and Strategies for Protecting Water Ecology

At present,the major problems facing the water resource environment worldwide include water pollution,water resource shortage,and water ecosystem degradation.The discharge of industrial wastewater,agricultural non-point source pollution,and the discharge of urban sewage lead to a serious decline in water quality,which directly affects the safety of human drinking water and the living environment of aquatic organisms.Additionally,the unbalanced distribution and excessive exploitation of water resources lead to the problem of water shortage in many areas,which then leads to social and economic contradictions and ecological crises.In terms of ecosystems,the phenomena of water ecological degradation and reduction of biodiversity are increasingly obvious,and the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems are gradually declining.This paper aims to analyze the natural,social,and economic factors affecting the water resource environment,and propose effective strategies to protect the water ecology.To provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the long-term development of the water ecosystem.

Influence of Anthropogenic Activities on Surface Water Resources—Case of the Sub-Prefecture of Kamsar-Boké

Living fishery resources, although rich and important for human populations, are subject to strong anthropization, thus causing a change in the environmental parameters of aquatic ecosystems. These multiple combined pressures: chemical, hydro-morphological, thermal or trophic, affect and disrupt the functioning of aquatic organisms. The objective of this study was to assess the main human pressures influencing the surface water resources of the Kamsar sub-prefecture, in order to propose mitigation measures. The following methodological approach was adopted: 1) Survey of managers and analysis records;2) Survey of stakeholders;3) Assessment of the effect of human activities on surface water resources;4) Data processing;5) Corrective measures. The survey farmers working near aquatic environments, revealed a low use of chemical substances, in particular 3 to 11 kg of fertilizer and 0 to 3 boxes of herbicide on fields of 40 m2 to 2 ha. Some physico-chemical parameters have been determined: Temperature (28.5˚C, 23.7˚C, 22.8˚C, 21.3˚C, 21.6˚C), Salinity (26.9‰, 21.9‰, 21.5‰, 15‰, 15.3‰) and Turbidity (21.3 UTN, 19.3 UTN, 17.8 UTN, 16.7 UTN, 17 UTN). These values show a fluctuation in the environmental parameters of aquatic ecosystems, which constitutes an obstacle to the development and survival of the resources.

Mathematical Model of the Geothermal Water Resources in the South Hot Spring System in Chongqing

The geothermal waters of south hot spring, small hot spring and Qiaokouba in Chongqing, are all part of the south hot spring geothermal water system. Exploitation has caused a decline in the water levels of the south and small hot springs, which have not flowed naturally for 15 years. Now, bores pump geothermal water to the springs. If the water level drops below the elevation of the rivers, river-water will replenish the geothermal water, destroying this resource. It is therefore an urgent task to model the geothermal water system, to enable sustainable development and continued use of the geothermal water in Qiaokouba. A numerical simulation of the geothermal water system was adopted and a quantitative study on the planning scheme was carried out. A mathematical model was set up to simulate the whole geothermal water system, based on data from the research sites. The model determined the maximum sustainable water yield in Qiaokouba and the two hot springs, and the south hot spring and small hot spring sustainable yields are 1 100 m^3/d and 700 m^3/d from 2006 to 2010, 1 300 m^3/d and 1 000 m^3/d from 2011 to 2015, and 1 500 m^3/d and 1 200 m^3/d from 2016 to 2036. The maximum exploitable yield is 3 300 m^3/d from 2006 to 2036 in Qiaokouba. The model supplies a basis to adequately exploit and effectively protect the geothermal water resources, and to continue to develop the geothermal water as a tourist attraction in Chongqing.

Theory and model of water resources complex adaptive allocation system

Complex adaptive sys tem theory is a new and important embranchment of system science, which prov ides a new thought to research water resources allocation system. Based on the a nalysis of complexity and complex adaptive mechanism of water resources allocat ion system, a fire-new analysis model is presented in this paper. With t he description of dynamical mechanism of system, behavior characters of agents and the evaluation method of system status, an integrity research system is built to analyse the evolvement rule of water resources allocation system. A nd a brief research for the impact of water resources allocation in benefi cial regions of the Water Transfer from South to North China Project is conducted.

Reviews of the research on water resources management system at home and abroad

The reform of the system of water resource management abroad has started since the 50s of last century, it has left us a lot of experiences in many aspects with the innovation of system, such as the legal environment in water resources, water rights, water market theory, and the ＂participation＂ management of water resources, these experiences has been promoted in more than 40 developing countries. Based on analyzing the theory and experiences of water resources management both at home and abroad, especially the theory and experiences of agricultural water resources management, this paper puts forward the main problems waiting for further investigation in China＇s water resources management and provides some reference and inspiration for the innovation of the system of water resource management in China.

A multi-objective fuzzy optimization model for cropping structure and water resources and its method

Cropping structure has a close relationship with the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. Based on the analysis of the relationship between agricultural water resources and sustainable development, this paper presents a multi objective fuzzy optimization model for cropping structure and water allocation, which overcomes the shortcoming of current models that only considered the economic objective,and ignored the social and environmental objectives. During the process, a new method named fuzzy deciding weight is developed to decide the objective weight. A case study shows that the model is reliable, the method is simple and objective, and the results are reasonable. This model is useful for agricultural management and sustainable development.

Assessment on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Area Based on the Cosine Vector Included Angle

[Objective] The research aimed to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province based on the cosine vector included angle method. [Method] By using the cosine vector included angle method, the index weight was determined. The projection value of water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province was counted by using the multi-objective gray relational projection method. Moreover, the projection value which was counted by the index weight determined by the mean-variance method was as the control. [Result] The projection values which were obtained by two kinds of methods were very close, and the ordering result was consistent. [Conclusion] In the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, it was feasible to use the cosine vector included angle method to determine the index weight.